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Top 25 Predictions: Week 7

By on October 15, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

1. Richmond Spiders at Maine Black Bears

Richmond will be too much for an up and down Maine team.The Spiders continue the longest winning streak in FCS football.

Richmond 38   Maine 17
2. Northern Iowa Panthers vs. 5. Southern Illinois Salukis

Another classic MVFC battle in Cedar Falls. Last Saluki win in the UNI-Dome was 1983. I think the streak continues.

Northern Iowa 38  Southern Illinois 35
3. New Hampshire Wildcats at 20. Massachusetts Minutemen

New Hampshire is riding high off of a Homecoming victory over a highly ranked Villanova squad. Massachusetts is on the other end of the spectrum after a blowout loss to Delaware. Massachusetts is looking for a Homecoming win of their own, but they come up just short.

New Hampshire 27  Massachusetts 21
4. Montana Grizzlies vs. 21. Eastern Washington Eagles

The Griz take on their 2nd Top 25 opponent in a row. EWU comes into the game with a high powered offense. The Griz have shown they can win close games and I think they’ll pull out another win.

Montana 35  Eastern Washington 28
5. Southern Illinois Salukis at 2. Northern Iowa Panthers

see 2. Northern Iowa Panthers
6. Villanova Wildcats at 19. James Madison Dukes

Villanova is on the road against a ranked team for the 2nd week in a row. Last weekend they couldn’t get past an undefeated New Hampshire squad. James Madison almost took down defending champion, Richmond. JMU is at home and due for the big win.

James Madison 24 Villanova 20

7. William & Mary Tribe    BYE
8. Elon Phoenix  BYE

  

9. Central Arkansas Bears  vs. 16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Easily the game of the week in the Southland Conference, this game has a lot riding on the line. Central Arkansas looks to continue it’s dominance of the SLC and prove that they deserve a Top 10 ranking, while SFA looks to prove that they are back and plan to contend for the automatic bid to the playoffs. Central Arkansas is too tough at home.

Central Arkansas 34   Stephen F. Austin 31

10. Appalachian State Mountaineers at Wofford Terriers

After an 0-2 start, the Mountaineers have won 3 straight. Wofford is down after a lot of injuries have hurt depth. The hurt continues for Wofford.

Appalachian State 35  Wofford 10
11. South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. North Dakota State Bison

The Jackrabbits are riding high. Still undefeated in conference play heading into a tough stretch against NDSU and UNI. The Bison are off to one of their worst starts in years. One win on the year, big loss at home to UNI last week, and no Pat Paschall this week for the Bison. Jacks keep the Dakota Marker for the 3rd year in a row.

South Dakota State 35  North Dakota State 17
12. Jacksonville State Gamecocks  BYE
13. South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. 22. Florida A&M Rattlers

Both teams are riding high. Each is 4-1 and 2-0 in the MEAC. Bulldogs have big game experience and homefield advantage. (read the full breakdown of this game on the FCS Update blog)

South Carolina State 24   Florida A&M 14
14. Weber State Wildcats vs Sacremento State Hornets

Weber State bounced back from their first conference loss last week with an 18-point win over Eastern Washington. Sacremento State has won two straight. The Hornets streak comes to an end.

Weber State 24  Sacremento State 14

 
15. McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons

McNeese State took a hit to their playoff hopes last week, losing their first SLC game of the season to Stephen F Austin. The Cowboys look to roll over winless Northwestern State to get their playoff train back on track.

McNeese 38 Northwestern State 7
16. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at 9. Central Arkansas Bears

 

see 9. Central Arkansas Bears
17. Cal Poly Mustangs

Cal Poly comes home after losing to Montana last week. Southern Utah is much improved with 2 FBS losses and a close loss to 24. Northern Arizona. I think SUU pulls the upset.

Southern Utah 24 Cal Poly 21
18. Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers

Delaware looks to claw it’s way back into the CAA race, as well as make a case for an at-large bid. Towson’s looking to turn things around. It’ll be a little longer Tiger fans.

Delaware 35  Towson 13
19. James Madison Dukes vs. 6. Villanova Wildcats

See 6. Villanova Wildcats

 
20. Massachusetts Minutemen vs. 3. New Hampshire Wildcats

 

See 3. New Hampshire Wildcats
21. Eastern Washington Eagles at 4. Montana Grizzlies

See 4. Montana Grizzlies
22. Florida A&M Rattlers at 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs

See 13. South Carolina State Bulldogs
23. Colgate Raiders vs. Georgetown

Colgate stays undefeated, Georgetown stays winless.

Colgate 28  Georgetown 3

 
24. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Portland State Vikings

Northern Arizona looks to prove they belong in the Top 25. Portland State looks to get on the winning track. Lumberjacks prove themselves.

Northern Arizona 38  Portland State 14

 

25. Furman Paladins vs. Samford Bulldogs

Samford is on the edge of falling out of the playoff hunt. Furman isn’t too far behind. The Paladins need to win this one. but they won’t.

Samford 24  Furman 17

 

……and hack away at it.

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Spotlight shines on Orangeburg

By on October 15, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

All eyes in the MEAC will focus on Orangeburg, SC this weekend as the Florida A&M Rattlers face the South Carolina State Bulldogs

Both teams take the field Saturday with an overall record of 4-1, and a MEAC record of 2-0. Florida A&M’s lone loss came to in-state FBS rival Miami, and SC State also fell to an in-state rival when the faced South Carolina.

Florida A&M comes in with national sensation, LeRoy Vann, who has been featured on ESPN because of his explosiveness in the Rattlers return game. When asked about Vann and the problems he presented, S.C. State head coach, Buddy Pough said that they would not kick the ball out of bounds to avoid Vann touching the ball. The special teams battle could easily win this game.

The Bulldogs of South Carolina State are coming off of a 2008 playoff appearance in which they came close to upsetting FCS powerhouse, Appalachian State. They are lead by Senior RB Will Ford, who leads the team with 383 yards rushing. Ford is on the Payton Award watch list after rushing for 1,499 yards last year. Their marquee win at this point in the season came against Grambling State in week one. The game ended with a final score of 34-31, but the game was never really that close. The Bulldogs struggled at times, had conditioning issues, and just were not playing to their potential. If this game were played again I would expect the Bulldogs to win by 10+.

This game could very well decide the MEAC championship which would guarantee a spot in the 2009 FCS playoffs. While the loser could still learn an at-large bid, no one wants to leave it to chance.

Coach Pough feels like both teams have a strong resume for the playoffs. While the winner clearly has the better path, Pough feels both teams belong in at this point in the season. When asked about their non-conference schedule, Couch Pough said that he felt like they played on of the toughest non-conference slates in FCS football. This schedule included a neutral site game against Grambling State, FBS South Carolina, and Winston Salem State.

I contacted Florida A&M or this article, but was unable to get a response. Current issues in their athletic department may have caused communication issues. If we can get a comment from Coach Taylor, then the story will be updated.

Prediction:

South Carolina State 24   Florida A&M 14

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Coming up this week 10/12

By on October 12, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

The big story for this week will be a preview of the marquee match-up in the MEAC: South Carolina State vs. Florida A&M. I will be posting a breakdown of the game, as well as comments from both head coaches.

Also look for the beginning of our former FCS player profile series that will feature former FCS players on the ChampionshipSubdivision.com forums.

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If the playoffs started today….10/12/09

By on October 12, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Still a long way to go……

This will change a lot next week. A lot of big games coming up this weekend: New Hampshire @ Massachusetts, Villanova @ James Madison, Eastern Washington @ Montana, Florida A&M @ South Carolina State, Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa, North Dakota State @ South Dakota State, and Stephen F Austin @ Central Arkansas.

Autobids:

Big Sky: Montana    CAA: Richmond   MEAC: South Carolina State   MVFC: Northern Iowa   OVC: Tennessee State   Patriot: Holy Cross  SoCon: Elon  Southland: Stephen F. Austin

At-large bids:

New Hampshire(2nd CAA), Villanova(3rd CAA), William and Mary(4th CAA), Appalachian State(2nd SoCon), Southern Illinois(2nd MVFC), South Dakota State(3rd MVFC), McNeese State(2nd Southland), Northern Arizona (2nd Big Sky)

Bracket:

Holy Cross @ (1)Richmond
Tennessee State @ Appalachian State

William and Mary @ Southern Illinois
South Carolina State @ (4)New Hampshire

Northern Arizona @ (2)Northern Iowa
Villanova @ McNeese State

Elon @ South Dakota State
Stephen F. Austin @ (3)Montana

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The Battle In The Trenches, Finale: The Recap From Fargo

By on October 12, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

I arrived in Fargo around noon on Saturday, welcomed by tempatures in the low 30s and occasional flurries.

After a few minutes of adjusting to the cold, I was offered food, drink, and some warmth by one of the best tailgating atmospheres in FCS football. I have never seen so many custom painted buses, RVs and vans. Special thanks to the crews at the Rainforest and Rollin Thunder tailgates. I met a lot of Bison posters throughout the West lots and appreciate their hospitality.

Inside the Fargodome the media relations crew was very friendly and I had a great time with the local Fargo media.

We’ll be getting a photo gallery posted here at cs.com in the upcoming week, so stay tuned for that.

The focus of this last week was North Dakota State RB Pat Paschall and his challenge of facing the Northern Iowa defense. All in all the battle was pretty even. Let me break it down for you.

Here’s the lowdown:

Paschall rushed for 115 yards-

Paschall tied his season low this week with 115 yards on 19 carries. This was about 35 yards below his season average. The result is that Paschall no longer leads to country in yards per game. That title has moved to Deji Karim who faces the Northern Iowa defense on Saturday. Advantage: Northern Iowa

North Dakota State rushes for 206 yards-

The Bison rolled up a team total of 206 yards on Saturday. The Bison had 5 different players with carries, including QB Nick Mertens. The 206 yards of rushing offense was 141 yards more than UNI was averaging, and the most the UNI defense has allowed this season. Advantage: North Dakota State

Overall, both parties played the game under their averages. Obviously in the end the outcome favored the Panthers, but I would say that it was a successful game for Paschall and the Bison offensive line.

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The Battle In The Trenches, Part 2: Purple Haze

By on October 8, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Through 5 games of the season, the Northern Iowa defense is only giving up 7.6 points per game. That includes holding FBS #12 Iowa to 17. The Panther defense is 5th in the country in rushing defense, allowing 65.6 yards per game.  This is the challenge that awaits North Dakota State running back Pat Paschall, the number one running back in yards per game in FCS football.

This year’s Panther defense has left off exactly where last year ended,  replacing last year’s man in the middle, Everette Pedescleaux, who graduated last spring and is currently with the NFL’s Denver Broncos. Pedescleaux, listed at 6-6 305 lbs, has been replaced by Chuck Kinney and Wes Lane. Both senior leaders are listed at 290 pounds.

But the biggest push on the defensive line comes from  James Ruffin, a senior defensive end from Burnsville, MN. Ruffin was highly decorated after his junior season. He was named as a first team all-american by the American Football Coaches Association, Defensive Player of the Year in the Valley, first-team all-MVFC pick , second-team All-America pick by the Associated Press , third-team All-America honoree by The Sports Network. Ruffin finished last season with 18 tackles for loss and 10 sacks.

As a unit, the most ground yardage the team has given up this season was against South Dakota. The Coyotes ran for 151 total yards(90 net) on 35 attempts, an average of 4.3 yards per carry.  The Coyotes only scored one TD in the game, and that came on a flea-flicker pass.

Their season low was last weekend against Indiana State. The Sycamores ran for 56 yards (42 net) on 25 attempts.

Looking forward to this battle on Saturday. We’ll finish this series with a recap over the weekend. Look forward to a photo gallery of gameday pictures from inside the Fargodome.

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The Battle In The Trenches, Part 1: Meet Pat Paschall

By on October 6, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

This weekend, those of us in the Fargodome are in for what should amount to be an epic battle. North Dakota State’s running back, Pat Paschall, is currently the number one running back in all of FCS football. Paschall, coming into the game averaging 150.8 yards per game, is going to be up against the defense from the University of Northern Iowa. The Panther defense comes into Saturday’s game ranked in the top 10 in 3 major statistical categories.

 Paschall, The Bison’s fifth year senior from St. Louis, Mo., was originally recruited to Georgia Southern University, where in his redshirt season he was named scout team player of the year. Unhappy with the situation in Statesboro, Paschall headed to Dodge City Community College, where he would eventually be recruited by North Dakota State.

In his sophmore season, his first with the Bison, Paschall would run the ball 84 times for a total of 530 yards and five TDs. He also had one reception for 16 yards and a touchdown.

His junior year was very similar to his sophmore campaign. He would run the ball 108 times for 601 yards and two TDs, so more carries, a little more yardage, but less TDs. He would also catch nine passes for 51 yards.

The 2009 season has already been great to Pat. Through 5 games he has rushed the ball 100 times for 765 yards (7.65 yards per carry) and 5 TDs. Career highs less than halfway through the season in both yards and TDs. He also has 6 receptions for 120 yards.

This week the Bison’s running game faces a highly ranked Panther defense.

We’ll turn to the Panther defense on Thursday and will finish next week with a post game commentary on what should be a great battle.

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Top 25 Summary 10/3

By on October 3, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update

Crazy day in the Top 25. I had the opportunity to watch four games today. Here’s a rundown on my predictions, how it went down, and what I thought of the outcome.

1. Richmond is idle.

 

2. Villanova vs. No. 4 William and Mary

My prediction: William and Mary 24  Villanova 21

Reality: Villanova 28  William and Mary 17

 William and Mary just didn’t really seem like they were ready to play in the first half. The Tribe’s QB, R.J. Archer had enough problems on his own. He ooked like he lacked the necessary confidence to make the plays he needed to. When it wasn’t the offense stalling, it was the defense making errors. One Villanova drive was extended by an unsportsmanlike conduct flag on a defensive player who felt the need to taunt and injured played who had just been rocked on a hard hit.

The Tribe went into halftime down 21-6, but back ready to play in the 2nd half. It was just too little, too late for the Tribe.

Villanova on the other hand looked like the best team in the country. Easily #1 in my mind.  The Villanova offense, led by QB Chris Whitney, was very balanced with148 yards on the ground and 169 through the air. The only issue I saw was the defense. The Wildcats defense gave 472 yards, but managed to keep the Tribe to 17 points. The Tribe’s first drive was ended by an INT in a goalline situation. Had that play gone differently, we may have seen a different game.

Was very thankful for the invention of DVR. Was great to come back and watch this game on Versus.

 

3. Northern Iowa  vs. Indiana State

My prediction: Northern Iowa 52  Indiana State 7

Reality: Northern Iowa 62  Indiana State 7

I called this one pretty closely. Northern Iowa was ahead 42-0 at the half. All of starters on offense andmost of the starters on defense sat out the entire second half. Indiana State had a 12 yard scoring drive after a UNI fumble. Indiana State was held to 101 yards of total offense. Not too much to say about this game. One highlight was UNI FB Matt Strathman, a junior, who led the Panthers with 133 yards on 16 carries.

 

5. Montana is idle.

 

6. New Hampshire vs. Towson

My prediction: New Hampshire 28  Towson 10

Reality: New Hampshire 57  Towson 7

Man, I was a little short on New Hampshire scoring. The Wildcats beat my prediction in the 1st quarter. The Wildcats were without junior QB R.J. Toman, but still managed to put an old fashioned whopping on the Tigers. The offense was assisted by a safety, a TD on the ensuing kick return, and 2 INTs returned for a TD.

 

7. James Madison vs. Hofstra

My Prediction: James Madison 38  Hofstra 7

Reality: Hofstra 24  James Madison 17

Wow. This game threw me for a loop. I couldn’t believe it as I checked the game throughout the afternoon. I thought ESPN had gotten it wrong like they do at times. Although this game was effected by weather(lightning delay in the first half), good teams find ways to win games.

Hofstra lead 21-10 at the half, and neither team could muster much offense in the 2nd half. This is James Madison’s first lost since falling to Maryland in OT.

 

8. Southern Illinois vs. Western Illinois

My Prediction: Southern Illinois 31  Western Illinois 14

Reality:Southern Illinois 30 Western Illinois 10

 This is one of the games I got to catch a bit of. When I turned the game on at halftime SIU was up 27-10. From watching Western Illinois twice this season, it’s easy for me to say the WIU is not very good. Their starting QB Barr went down, and I watched his back-up pick apart the SIU defense. Unfortunately, a lot of those passes were dropped by WRs. I mean, he hit them right in the hands. It was sad really. WIU does not have a defense, so it was hard to gauge SIU.  Saluki running back Deji Karim went nuts tonight. 157 yards rushing on 18 carries with 282 all purpose yards. The Saluki’s first big test of the season comes against Northern Iowa on 10/17 in a game that as of late has decided the Valley autobid.

9. McNeese St is idle

 

10. Appalachian State vs.  The Citadel

My prediction: Appalachian State 42  The Citadel 24

Reality: Appalachian State 30  The Citadel 27   OT

I was a little off on this game. Barely got the outcome right. It was a hard fought game, back and forth all day, but when it came to the end, The Citadel just couldn’t finish what they started. After taking a 27-20 lead with 5:18 remaining, the Bulldog defense gave up the game tying score on just 2 plays, the 2nd of which was a 74 yard TD strike from Armanti Edwards to Brian Quick. Each team had the ball one more time in regulation, but couldn’t score. In overtime, The Citadel had the ball first, and after 3 plays attempted a 37 yard FG on 4th and 5. A bad snap was eventually placed and the kick sailed right. Appalachian State would connect on a 29 yard FG to win.

 

11. Elon vs. No. 21 Furman

My Prediction: Elon 28  Furman 24

Reality: Elon 19  Furman 12

I was right when I assumed we were in for a good SoCon battle in this game. The game was a low scoring, back and forth, affair all afternoon. Elon kicked a FG with 2 seconds left to take the lead 13-12. Furman fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Elon recovered to make it a 19-12 final.

 

12. Central Arkansas vs Missouri S&T

My prediction: Central Arkansas 52 Missouri S&T 10

Reality: Central Arkansas 45 Missouri S&T 10

I was close on this one. UCA pulls out the sub D-I win.

 

13. Weber St. vs. Montana State

My Prediction: Weber State 31  Montana State 14

Reality: Montana State 26  Weber State 21

It was a last play heart breaker today in Ogden, UT. Weber State had the ball on the Montana State 1 yard line with 20 seconds left. 4th and goal. The Bobcat defense stopped a Wildcat formation option play, and that was the game.

I can’t decide if I’m overestimating Weber State, or underestimating Montana State. I thought Weber State was overrated coming into this game, but I also thought Montana State wasn’t that good.

 

 
14. South Dakota State vs. No. 17 Cal Poly

My Prediction: South Dakota State 35  Cal Poly 17

Reality:  Cal Poly 21  South Dakota State 14

I forked over the $7 to watch this game online tonight. This was a match up between two teams that I couldn’t figure out. But I’m not sure I learned much of anything. The Jackrabbits of SDSU lost their starting QB early in the game. After he was out they brought in a back-up freshman QB and also ran the wildcat formation. Neither team looked that great.

Cal Poly took a 21-14 lead with about 2 minutes left in the game when the Jackrabbits fumbles into their own endzone. On the following drive the Cal Poly defense sealed the win with an interception.

So are both teams for real? Neither of them? I’m not positive. My evaluation says they both fall somewhere between 17-25 in the poll.

 

15. Massachusetts is idle.

 

16. South Carolina State vs. South Carolina

My prediction: South Carolina 52  South Carolina State 14

Reality: South Carolina 38  South Carolina State 14

Not a bad showing by S.C. State, but this was their only shot at a quality out of conference win. I was pretty close on this one.

 

18. Eastern Washington vs. Idaho State

My prediction: Eastern Washington 27  Idaho State 7

Reality: Eastern Washington 38  Idaho State 3

 A little off on the score, but it was the same idea.

Idaho State just looks terrible this year. They are winless on the season and have lost 20 out of their last 21 games.

Taiwan Jones of EWU set a Holt Arena and EWU record with a 96 yard touchdown run.

Idaho State fumbled six times, losing three of them.

You get the idea….

 

19. Eastern Kentucky vs. No. 24 Eastern Illinois

My prediction: Eastern Kentucky 35  Eastern Illinois 10

Reality: Eastern Kentucky 36  Eastern Illinois 31

EIU played this much closer than I expected. The Panthers, led by Iowa-transfer QB Jake Christensen, came up just short. EKU’s Jeremy Caldwell forced a fumble at midfield with under 10 seconds left.

With Jacksonville State ineligible for the playoffs, I viewed this as the autobid for the OVC. EKU improves to 3-0 in the Ohio Valley.

 

20. Texas State vs. Southern Utah

My prediction: Southern Utah 24  Texas State 14

Reality: Southern Utah 38  Texas State 16

This was the game I got the most comments on. Everyone said I was crazy for thinking Texas State would only score 14. If anything, I was crazy for shorting the Southern Utah offense. The Thunderbird offense put up 31 points. The other 7? A 99 yard fumble return for a TD. Maybe I should thank SUU’s junior CB Akeem Anifowoshe for keeping the Bobcats out of the end zone.

 

22. Holy Cross vs. Northeastern

My prediction: Holy Cross 31  Northeastern 7

Reality: Holy Cross 42  Northeastern 21

This game was over even sooner than I thought. Holy Cross led 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter. Only suprise was Holy Cross allowing Northeastern to score 14 in the 4th quarter. But hey, you gotta throw people a bone sometimes.

 

23. Jacksonville State vs. Tennessee Martin

My prediction: Jacksonville State 21 Tennessee Martin 10

Reality: Jacksonville State 52 Tennessee Martin 7

Holy smokes, Jax State is good this year! Too bad they won’t be playing Thanksgiving weekend. JSU is one of a few schools ineligible for the playoffs this year. Unfortunately the NCAA dropped a ban on them after poor historical performance in the APRs.

JSU defensive back had 3 INTs and returned 2 for TDs in the first nine minutes. This game was over quick.

 

25. Delaware vs. Maine

My prediction: Delaware 24  Maine 17

Reality: Delaware 27 Maine 17

This was a great pick. If only Delaware had missed their last FG.

Delaware had a rough 2008, and 2009 hasn’t been much better. The Blue Hens lost to reigning national champion, Richmond by one, and then the next week lost another close one to William and Mary. This win gets them back on the road to where they want to go.

Penn State transfer QB Pat Devlin threw for 329 yards and 1 TD in the Delaware win.

 

My record this week: 13-4

On the season: 13-4

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Top 25 Update

By on October 3, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update:

In early Top 25 games:

Looks like I’m going to be under on No. 22 Holy Cross. I predicted a 35-7 win, but going into halftime they already have a 35-7 lead.

 

So far I’m WAY off on No. 10 Appalachian State against The Citadel, who is unranked. I picked the Mountaineers to win 42-24, but at the half they are down 13-7.

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I’ve Been Outed

By on October 2, 2009 in FCS Update

Rob Weiss, FCS Update:

Earlier today another FCS website outed me by associating my real name with my user name. This will not stop me from writing this blog. I will continue writing the most honest and unbiased material in FCS coverage. If knowing where my FCS loyalty lies on Saturday bothers you, shoot me a message or give me a couple reads. You’ll find that my coverage of FCS football is knowledgable, honest, and unbiased.

Thanks for reading!

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