Hilldog's election postmortem

[BDKJMU]

[

Bernie Sanders would have beaten Donald Trump? Not so fast
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... p-election

Some of that is the same old fallacy about the polls being way off in the 2016 election. As noted in some of my previous posts, the overall popular vote polls were very close to the actual outcome. And if you look at the latest State by State polls reported at Real Clear Politics site the candidate that won among respondents in each poll won the State in 44 of 46 cases where polls are reported. That includes Trump winning among respondents for the latest polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The latest poll for North Carolina was reported as a tie. The only case in which the latest poll reported at RealClearPolitics had the majority of respondents fail to pick the candidate that won the State is Wisconsin.

I was watching the polls all along. As long as they were reporting on Sanders he consistently ran something like 10 to 15 percentage points stronger against Trump than Clinton did. He was consistently up on Trump by something like 15 to 20 points. He was clearly the stronger potential general election candidate for the Democrats.

Plus common sense should tell you that Trump would not have been able to use the "crooked Hillary" type stuff against Sanders. He'd have been in a situation where the Democrat was on the same side as he was on the trade deals and such. He'd have been neutered.

It wasn't 10-15 points. More like 8. The last RCP head to head Trump v Sanders polling was 5/6-6/5, Sanders +10.4. The Trump was Hillary early May-early June was about +2. But that was 5-6 months before the election. So Sanders never had to campaign as the donk nominee. He never had to face attacks from Trump & his supporters. He never had to face media ads from conks & conservative groups. He never had to do the debates that anyone watched (no one watched the donk debates compared to the presidential or even compared to the conk debates). More people would have seem Sanders as a crazy old man. Basically would have had 2 wingnuts going at it. Those Sanders/Trump polls, if they had been done June-early Nov, would have tightened. Sanders wins maybe, but not a blowout..

[houndawg]

Can there be any doubt now that she was WRONG for the job of President..?
How we get two people so wrong for the job as the only two choices is still a staggering slap in noggin

The Republicans should have called their slate "the Billion". One followed by twelve zeros

And nevermind Hillary. Everybody but the DNC knew she wasn't the right candidate. All this Russian shit is just blame shifting

[houndawg]

The irony of casting blame on the DNC for her loss in the general election is just rich considering all the heavy lifting the DNC did to rig the Democratic primary for her over Bernie.

I don't regret for an instance voting for the "other her" and not Clinton. What a train wreck.

DNC staffers pissed off that Hildacoont is throwing them under the bus for ignoring their concerns about PA, MI, and WI.

It was Bernie's staff that warned them. But they went with the "they'll vote for us because they have to" line.

[houndawg]

Sure it is. It's irrational as hell.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You know better than that. You're just jerking chains now.

No. He's right. The conks still had the edge in voting machines without a paper trail. The simple fact is that the DNC blew in spectacular fashion the most unlosable national election in the history of these United States. If you can't see that you may as well bring back your evangelica! statistician riff.

[JohnStOnge]

You know better than that. You're just jerking chains now.

No. He's right. The conks still had the edge in voting machines without a paper trail. The simple fact is that the DNC blew in spectacular fashion the most unlosable national election in the history of these United States. If you can't see that you may as well bring back your evangelica! statistician riff.

Hound, it is not irrational to think it's possible that Clinton would've won had Comey just told the Justice Department he wasn't recommending charges instead of holding a press conference then opted not to announce that they were looking a Weiner's computer. I mean really. To suggest that Comey's decisions weren't a factor impacting chances of winning is just ridiculous.

[JohnStOnge]

Some of that is the same old fallacy about the polls being way off in the 2016 election. As noted in some of my previous posts, the overall popular vote polls were very close to the actual outcome. And if you look at the latest State by State polls reported at Real Clear Politics site the candidate that won among respondents in each poll won the State in 44 of 46 cases where polls are reported. That includes Trump winning among respondents for the latest polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The latest poll for North Carolina was reported as a tie. The only case in which the latest poll reported at RealClearPolitics had the majority of respondents fail to pick the candidate that won the State is Wisconsin.

I was watching the polls all along. As long as they were reporting on Sanders he consistently ran something like 10 to 15 percentage points stronger against Trump than Clinton did. He was consistently up on Trump by something like 15 to 20 points. He was clearly the stronger potential general election candidate for the Democrats.

Plus common sense should tell you that Trump would not have been able to use the "crooked Hillary" type stuff against Sanders. He'd have been in a situation where the Democrat was on the same side as he was on the trade deals and such. He'd have been neutered.

It wasn't 10-15 points. More like 8. The last RCP head to head Trump v Sanders polling was 5/6-6/5, Sanders +10.4. The Trump was Hillary early May-early June was about +2. But that was 5-6 months before the election. So Sanders never had to campaign as the donk nominee. He never had to face attacks from Trump & his supporters. He never had to face media ads from conks & conservative groups. He never had to do the debates that anyone watched (no one watched the donk debates compared to the presidential or even compared to the conk debates). More people would have seem Sanders as a crazy old man. Basically would have had 2 wingnuts going at it. Those Sanders/Trump polls, if they had been done June-early Nov, would have tightened. Sanders wins maybe, but not a blowout..

Actually there were times early on when the two were virtually tied but from March 9, 2016 through the end of polling the matchup reported on June 6, 2016 the Sanders margin ranged from 10 through 17.5 points. As you noted, when polling on the potential matchup stopped with the last report being June 6 Sanders led Trump by 10.4 percentage points while Clinton, at that time, led Trump by 2 percentage points on the same date.

You can speculate about what would happen in the debates but Trump was not good at that. He lost all three to Clinton.

[houndawg]

No. He's right. The conks still had the edge in voting machines without a paper trail. The simple fact is that the DNC blew in spectacular fashion the most unlosable national election in the history of these United States. If you can't see that you may as well bring back your evangelica! statistician riff.

Hound, it is not irrational to think it's possible that Clinton would've won had Comey just told the Justice Department he wasn't recommending charges instead of holding a press conference then opted not to announce that they were looking a Weiner's computer. I mean really. To suggest that Comey's decisions weren't a factor impacting chances of winning is just ridiculous.

Not irrational but the reason I don't think it's as big a deal as you is because she won the popular vote bigly. The decision to not campaign in the swing states was what got them. Should have paid more attention to the results of the Michigan primary.

[Pwns]

In stores now!

I'll read it if you pay me a few grand.

[93henfan]

She said she felt creeped out when Trump stood behind her at one of the debates.

Yeah, because Trump has shown a propensity in his life to latch on to old hags in pantsuits.

I see her point.

[CID1990]

No. He's right. The conks still had the edge in voting machines without a paper trail. The simple fact is that the DNC blew in spectacular fashion the most unlosable national election in the history of these United States. If you can't see that you may as well bring back your evangelica! statistician riff.

Hound, it is not irrational to think it's possible that Clinton would've won had Comey just told the Justice Department he wasn't recommending charges instead of holding a press conference then opted not to announce that they were looking a Weiner's computer. I mean really. To suggest that Comey's decisions weren't a factor impacting chances of winning is just ridiculous.

Or, (perish the thought) Hillary could have obeyed the law

That would've helped her

[AZGrizFan]

Hillary learned from the best. In 8 years nothing was EVER Obama's fault...here she is after failing in spectacular fashion, blaming everything and everybody BUT herself for her failure. Classic donk reaction to not getting the trophy.

[houndawg]

Hillary learned from the best. In 8 years nothing was EVER Obama's fault...here she is after failing in spectacular fashion, blaming everything and everybody BUT herself for her failure. Classic donk reaction to not getting the trophy.

She should be pissed off at the DNC, they were the ones that put a republican on the ticket.

Bitch voted for every bombing and pipeline she could but Haiti is when she came out as the conk scum she is.

[grizzaholic]

Hillary learned from the best. In 8 years nothing was EVER Obama's fault...here she is after failing in spectacular fashion, blaming everything and everybody BUT herself for her failure. Classic donk reaction to not getting the trophy.

And she and Billy couldn't kill enough people for her to get elected.

[CID1990]

Hillary learned from the best. In 8 years nothing was EVER Obama's fault...here she is after failing in spectacular fashion, blaming everything and everybody BUT herself for her failure. Classic donk reaction to not getting the trophy.

She should be pissed off at the DNC, they were the ones that put a republican on the ticket.

Bitch voted for every bombing and pipeline she could but Haiti is when she came out as the conk scum she is.

I love dudes like you Dawg

Guys like you are a dime dozen where I come from

Registered Dem, ornery as hell, vote Dem whenever possible

But independent (and conservative) as hell but would die before admitting it

[Chizzang]

She committed a felony... is that in the book..?

Just asking for a friend

[AZGrizFan]

She committed a felony... is that in the book..?

Just asking for a friend

"A" felony?

Man, talk about giving her the benefit of the doubt.

[Chizzang]

She committed a felony... is that in the book..?

Just asking for a friend

"A" felony?

Man, talk about giving her the benefit of the doubt.

Well I'm a federal prosecutor so I'm not up on all the charges...
Sounds like you've got it all figured out

[AZGrizFan]

"A" felony?

Man, talk about giving her the benefit of the doubt.

Well I'm a federal prosecutor so I'm not up on all the charges...
Sounds like you've got it all figured out

Yes, I do.

[CID1990]

She committed a felony... is that in the book..?

Just asking for a friend

No no no

Remember - the director of the FBI changed the statute to add the word "intent"

therefore, no crime





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chizzang]

She committed a felony... is that in the book..?

Just asking for a friend

No no no

Remember - the director of the FBI changed the statute to add the word "intent"

therefore, no crime

I contend that buffoonery can also be a Felony - such as in these circumstances
And nobody's intent is to be a buffoon

[Skjellyfetti]

That's why Mueller probe scares Trump so much.

[kalm]

The fact we're even discussing that a democratic socialist could have beat a major party candidate should tell you guys something.

[JohnStOnge]

The fact we're even discussing that a democratic socialist could have beat a major party candidate should tell you guys something.

Sanders would have creamed Trump. If you go to the links in the earlier linked article about hypothetical questions you'll see there's disingenuous interpretation involved. There was a poll showing that Sanders would've creamed Trump if he'd been the Democrat nominee and the author of the linked article tried to argue that it wasn't valid because it dealt with a hypothetical. The author linked a 538 article about how polling of hypotheticals CAN be misleading IF the hypothetical deals with an extremely unrealistic scenario. But Sanders running in the general election wasn't an extremely unrealistic scenario.

There's absolutely no basis for disbelieving polls showing that Sanders would've creamed Trump.

[hitchinaride]

The one good thing for both Trump and Sanders being the fly in the ointment is that it has truly exposed the deep state in Washington that we all knew was there. I've never seen such Republicans officials act more like Dems than since DJT won the election.

[Ivytalk]

The fact we're even discussing that a democratic socialist could have beat a major party candidate should tell you guys something.

Sanders would have creamed Trump. If you go to the links in the earlier linked article about hypothetical questions you'll see there's disingenuous interpretation involved. There was a poll showing that Sanders would've creamed Trump if he'd been the Democrat nominee and the author of the linked article tried to argue that it wasn't valid because it dealt with a hypothetical. The author linked a 538 article about how polling of hypotheticals CAN be misleading IF the hypothetical deals with an extremely unrealistic scenario. But Sanders running in the general election wasn't an extremely unrealistic scenario.

There's absolutely no basis for disbelieving polls showing that Sanders would've creamed Trump.

The economy...