Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

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Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

"Two horses with the same owner" is a very good description of our system. :nod:

Also note that according to NYT, the exit polls were flawed. The article links to the NYT article but I've used all of my freebies and it's behind a pay wall now. Just another ploy by the elites to keep kalm down, man.

Will the people continue to wise up and one day call for real change or will the elites throw enough new shiny trinkets to pacify?
Candidate Trump's solutions were all lies. But his stump presentation hammered home an unfortunately true observation that politicians in both parties had incentives not to care about them, because they were sponsored by the same mega-donors.

From pollsters to think-tank analysts to pundits, the Beltway pros have not only consistently underestimated these feelings of disenfranchisement; they've consistently over-counted their own numbers.

This week, for instance, the New York Times ran a piece pointing to new evidence that pollsters in 2016 made massive errors. Some exit polls in November of 2016 had the number of college graduates of all races representing more than 50% of voters. But a recent Pew study says the number was closer to 37%.

America, like pretty much everyplace else in the neoliberal world, is becoming a society split up into unequal camps. We have an extremely small group of very rich people, and a much larger group of everyone else, who may or may not be educated, but increasingly have either zero net worth, or close to it.

The numbers are getting harder to ignore.

American politicians for decades have done an outstanding job of keeping low-income voters from seeing their shared economic dilemmas. The Republicans dating back to Goldwater and Nixon have kept voters transfixed with race hatred and fears about things like gun control, while Democrats have emphasized the Republican threat on social issues like reproductive rights and Social Security.

But having two parties sponsored by the same donors simply can't work in the long-term. The situation ends up being what a Colombian politician once deemed "two horses with the same owner."

From Mitt Romney's idiotic tirade against "the 47%" to Hillary Clinton's recent remarks about how she won all the "dynamic" parts of America, our political leaders have consistently showed that they don't see or understand the levels of resentment out there.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Gil Dobie »

They will continue to present the proverbial lipstick on a pig candidate, until they decide which one is more popular.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by AZGrizFan »

Kalm down.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote:Kalm down.
I have you in the mesmerized-by-shiny-trinkets camp. :thumb:
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote:Kalm down.
I have you in the mesmerized-by-shiny-trinkets camp. :thumb:
I haven’t voted major party in about 12 years pal. :thumb: I ain’t mesmerized by shit.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ivytalk »

Eh, another freeze frame on klam’s continuous loop of Matt Taibbi and that deranged pantywaist from The Guardian. Still waiting for that Sensible Centrist Party to rise from the ashes and kick the Big Two to the curb. Still waiting for the muskets and pitchforks of the outraged 99% and the youthful drummer kids from Parkland High to fill the streets. And yes, the Libertarians will manage to find some unknown weirdo with a thong to lead them in 2020. :roll:
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote:Eh, another freeze frame on klam’s continuous loop of Matt Taibbi and that deranged pantywaist from The Guardian. Still waiting for that Sensible Centrist Party to rise from the ashes and kick the Big Two to the curb. Still waiting for the muskets and pitchforks of the outraged 99% and the youthful drummer kids from Parkland High to fill the streets. And yes, the Libertarians will manage to find some unknown weirdo with a thong to lead them in 2020. :roll:
We have a built in revolution every two years. Why isn't it taken advantage of?
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ivytalk »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote:Eh, another freeze frame on klam’s continuous loop of Matt Taibbi and that deranged pantywaist from The Guardian. Still waiting for that Sensible Centrist Party to rise from the ashes and kick the Big Two to the curb. Still waiting for the muskets and pitchforks of the outraged 99% and the youthful drummer kids from Parkland High to fill the streets. And yes, the Libertarians will manage to find some unknown weirdo with a thong to lead them in 2020. :roll:
We have a built in revolution every two years. Why isn't it taken advantage of?
Beats me. I think we should organize a CS.com Party and have some of our leading lights give it a shot.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
We have a built in revolution every two years. Why isn't it taken advantage of?
Beats me.
:ohno:
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ivytalk »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Beats me.
:ohno:
Too many rhetorical questions, Klam. Building political parties takes hard work, brains, and money. If we were meant to have a strong third party, we would have had one by now.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
:ohno:
Too many rhetorical questions, Klam. Building political parties takes hard work, brains, and money. If we were meant to have a strong third party, we would have had one by now.
Where does it say we were meant to have two parties? Now that we have them, why would those two parties not do everything in their power to prevent competition?

Market place of ideas...competition...these are supposed to be things that Ivy likes....
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Chizzang »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
:ohno:
Too many rhetorical questions, Klam. Building political parties takes hard work, brains, and money. If we were meant to have a strong third party, we would have had one by now.
There can never be three...

There can only be
black and White
Good and Bad
Right and Wrong

:geek:

There is no viable third option in that dimension
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ivytalk »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Too many rhetorical questions, Klam. Building political parties takes hard work, brains, and money. If we were meant to have a strong third party, we would have had one by now.
Where does it say we were meant to have two parties? Now that we have them, why would those two parties not do everything in their power to prevent competition?

Market place of ideas...competition...these are supposed to be things that Ivy likes....
Sure, I do. But I’m a realist. Third parties that have actually won a few electoral votes — Progressives in 1912, Dixiecrats in 1948, American Independent Party in 1968 — have been built around one man and haven’t lasted long. Will we see moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats secede from their extremist brethren and unite to form a centrist party? I doubt it. Revolutions don’t happen every two years. We see alternating wave elections in the off-years, nail-biting presidential elections in the quadrennials. I don’t buy Taibbi’s theory. If there’s a realignment, it will likely be in the context of a two-party model. :twocents:
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by CID1990 »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
Where does it say we were meant to have two parties? Now that we have them, why would those two parties not do everything in their power to prevent competition?

Market place of ideas...competition...these are supposed to be things that Ivy likes....
Sure, I do. But I’m a realist. Third parties that have actually won a few electoral votes — Progressives in 1912, Dixiecrats in 1948, American Independent Party in 1968 — have been built around one man and haven’t lasted long. Will we see moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats secede from their extremist brethren and unite to form a centrist party? I doubt it. Revolutions don’t happen every two years. We see alternating wave elections in the off-years, nail-biting presidential elections in the quadrennials. I don’t buy Taibbi’s theory. If there’s a realignment, it will likely be in the context of a two-party model. :twocents:
If we did see a realignment producing a viable third party Taibbi would be the first to whine about it and how it isnt a big tent like the other two


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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
Where does it say we were meant to have two parties? Now that we have them, why would those two parties not do everything in their power to prevent competition?

Market place of ideas...competition...these are supposed to be things that Ivy likes....
Sure, I do. But I’m a realist. Third parties that have actually won a few electoral votes — Progressives in 1912, Dixiecrats in 1948, American Independent Party in 1968 — have been built around one man and haven’t lasted long. Will we see moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats secede from their extremist brethren and unite to form a centrist party? I doubt it. Revolutions don’t happen every two years. We see alternating wave elections in the off-years, nail-biting presidential elections in the quadrennials. I don’t buy Taibbi’s theory. If there’s a realignment, it will likely be in the context of a two-party model. :twocents:
No...you’re a fatalist and that’s not an insult as I’ll probably be there soon as well. That doesn’t change the idea that a duopoly is the root.

I’d still like to think that a if a true economic populist who’s willing to put guns and abortion on the back burner could survive a primary they might shake up the system.

Trump is actually close to that in some respects...
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by JohnStOnge »

The problem with all that is if you do the math using percentage college grads estimated by exit polls, percentage non college grads estimated by exit polls, and percentages voting for Clinton and Trump in each group estimated by the exit polls you come out with the overall popular vote estimated as Clinton 48% to Trump 46.5%. And that's very close to the actual outcome of Clinton 48.2% to Trump 46.1%.

The exit poll estimates are pretty much validated by the actual results.

This thing of constantly trying to find some way to dismiss what polling indicates has got to stop. It's pretty much always the case that when you really look at it it's a bunch of nonsense. It's like there is this popular desire to believe the polls are wrong. And they're generally not.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ivytalk »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Sure, I do. But I’m a realist. Third parties that have actually won a few electoral votes — Progressives in 1912, Dixiecrats in 1948, American Independent Party in 1968 — have been built around one man and haven’t lasted long. Will we see moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats secede from their extremist brethren and unite to form a centrist party? I doubt it. Revolutions don’t happen every two years. We see alternating wave elections in the off-years, nail-biting presidential elections in the quadrennials. I don’t buy Taibbi’s theory. If there’s a realignment, it will likely be in the context of a two-party model. :twocents:
No...you’re a fatalist and that’s not an insult as I’ll probably be there soon as well. That doesn’t change the idea that a duopoly is the root.

I’d still like to think that a if a true economic populist who’s willing to put guns and abortion on the back burner could survive a primary they might shake up the system.

Trump is actually close to that in some respects...
History is a tough teacher. I’ve been to more political meetings in seven months as a Libertarian than I did in 45 years as a Republican. Exciting moments of political talk, but I look around the room and don’t see anyone with real leadership promise. Good people, and some “true believers,” but nobody with the “it” Factor. That said, we’ll keep plugging away. What else can we do?
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by CID1990 »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
No...you’re a fatalist and that’s not an insult as I’ll probably be there soon as well. That doesn’t change the idea that a duopoly is the root.

I’d still like to think that a if a true economic populist who’s willing to put guns and abortion on the back burner could survive a primary they might shake up the system.

Trump is actually close to that in some respects...
History is a tough teacher. I’ve been to more political meetings in seven months as a Libertarian than I did in 45 years as a Republican. Exciting moments of political talk, but I look around the room and don’t see anyone with real leadership promise. Good people, and some “true believers,” but nobody with the “it” Factor. That said, we’ll keep plugging away. What else can we do?
You've got a hell of a lot more patience than I do

I could never get through a Libertarian Party meeting

Most of the people who show up at them are a dichotomy - they want to be left alone, but they are activists about it. So you wind up with an assortment of nuts like spandos, mountain men, people wearing colanders on their heads, and the occasional curious Ivy

In the LP, the candidate with the "it" factor doesnt go to LP meetings. He's at home, working in his garden or reading


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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by kalm »

CID1990 wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: History is a tough teacher. I’ve been to more political meetings in seven months as a Libertarian than I did in 45 years as a Republican. Exciting moments of political talk, but I look around the room and don’t see anyone with real leadership promise. Good people, and some “true believers,” but nobody with the “it” Factor. That said, we’ll keep plugging away. What else can we do?
You've got a hell of a lot more patience than I do

I could never get through a Libertarian Party meeting

Most of the people who show up at them are a dichotomy - they want to be left alone, but they are activists about it. So you wind up with an assortment of nuts like spandos, mountain men, people wearing colanders on their heads, and the occasional curious Ivy

In the LP, the candidate with the "it" factor doesnt go to LP meetings. He's at home, working in his garden or reading


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Which makes it more like the "introvert party"...

:lol:
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by CID1990 »

kalm wrote:
CID1990 wrote:
You've got a hell of a lot more patience than I do

I could never get through a Libertarian Party meeting

Most of the people who show up at them are a dichotomy - they want to be left alone, but they are activists about it. So you wind up with an assortment of nuts like spandos, mountain men, people wearing colanders on their heads, and the occasional curious Ivy

In the LP, the candidate with the "it" factor doesnt go to LP meetings. He's at home, working in his garden or reading


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Which makes it more like the "introvert party"...

:lol:
Well, yeah.

Libertarians will treat you the way they want to be treated.

Which is not at all
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote:The problem with all that is if you do the math using percentage college grads estimated by exit polls, percentage non college grads estimated by exit polls, and percentages voting for Clinton and Trump in each group estimated by the exit polls you come out with the overall popular vote estimated as Clinton 48% to Trump 46.5%. And that's very close to the actual outcome of Clinton 48.2% to Trump 46.1%.

The exit poll estimates are pretty much validated by the actual results.

This thing of constantly trying to find some way to dismiss what polling indicates has got to stop. It's pretty much always the case that when you really look at it it's a bunch of nonsense. It's like there is this popular desire to believe the polls are wrong. And they're generally not.
And that’s your problem right there. The overall popular vote doesn’t mean squat. The polls, and exit polls, were wrong where it mattered- the swing states..
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by Ibanez »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
We have a built in revolution every two years. Why isn't it taken advantage of?
Beats me. I think we should organize a CS.com Party and have some of our leading lights give it a shot.
:thumb: I'd gladly be a delegate to that convention.
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Re: Duopolistic Sustainability and JSO's Exit Polls

Post by GannonFan »

Ivytalk wrote:
kalm wrote:
No...you’re a fatalist and that’s not an insult as I’ll probably be there soon as well. That doesn’t change the idea that a duopoly is the root.

I’d still like to think that a if a true economic populist who’s willing to put guns and abortion on the back burner could survive a primary they might shake up the system.

Trump is actually close to that in some respects...
History is a tough teacher. I’ve been to more political meetings in seven months as a Libertarian than I did in 45 years as a Republican. Exciting moments of political talk, but I look around the room and don’t see anyone with real leadership promise. Good people, and some “true believers,” but nobody with the “it” Factor. That said, we’ll keep plugging away. What else can we do?
I'm with Ivy on this one - if a lasting third party was really possible (more than an election or two) then we would've had it already. 230+ years is a long time for a trend to be established and a duopoly is certainly established. The names of the two parties can change over time, but long term, it's two parties. This is where people who are against the Electoral College could gain support - I think the Electoral College is probably the biggest driver to two long lasting parties - you just need above 50% in there to win, so it encourages big tent parties to get to that point. People will always sacrifice some principle to join a group that will get them in power and the Electoral College does that.
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