Bloomberg Prediction

[mainejeff]

Well, Clint Eastwood just flipped to Mini Mike, so looks like he’s gonna be a formidable opponent now!

Is he still talking to chairs?

[houndawg]

I didn’t line him at first...but he’s grown on me...said no one ever.

Well I know quite a few folks who did NOT vote for him in 2016 but who are going to vote for him (with noses plugged) in 2020, myself included.

Makes sure the oligarchs win regardless of party.

[JohnStOnge]

Trump doesn’t need Mini Mike running independent to win the election. Dem’s are gonna lose this all on their lonesome.

I think you have about a 50:50 shot at being correct. I think a lot of people under estimate the size of the "anybody but trump" population as well as the intensity edge on that side of the equation. I am disappointed in the way the Democrats are doing everything they can do to diminish their odds. But Biden was right when he said "I think we could run Mickey Mouse against this president and have a shot.”

[JohnStOnge]

This is to describe what I mean by the intensity edge. The poll I track most on this issue is the Economist/YouGov poll at it comes out often and always does the breakdown. The last one was conducted February 16 - 18 and is at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... Report.pdf. Overall Trump was down among respondents by 12 percentage points (40% approve vs. 52% disapprove. But he's down by ore among those who feel strongly. 17 percentage points (25% strongly approve while 42% strongly disapprove). That basic picture is consistent with the way that poll has been on that question for as long as I can remember.

It's also consistent with respect to the basic picture (Trump's deficit among those who feel strongly is greater than his deficit overall) with other polls to at least some extent. Rasmussen poll results over time are available at https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... ex_history. Rasmussen is a Republican-biased poll but the gap among those who feel strongly has been consistently greater than the gap among all respondents. The latest Rasmussen poll had Trump down -2 among all respondents and down -5 among those who feel strongly.

As you know I consider the ABC News Washington Post poll to be the best. The last one was conducted 14 -17. It's at https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conte ... litics.pdf. That latest poll does not have MUCH of a difference among respondents overall and those that feel strongly but there is a difference and the gap is, again, wider among those who feel strongly. -10 among all respondents and -11 among those that feel strongly.

That is small and, again, consistent. You have to go back to the most recent previous ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted in January, to see a registered voters breakdown. But it's the same basic picture. The poll is at It was a good poll among registered voters for Trump as compared to previous ones. It had him down by 3 percentage points among all registered voters. But it had him down by 5 percentage points among respondents that felt strongly.

As you can see the difference is often small. But it's very consistent. It may be out there but I do follow that question closely and I don't believe I've ever seen a case in which the negative gap for Trump has not been greater among respondents who felt strongly than it was among respondents overall.

[BDKJMU]

This is to describe what I mean by the intensity edge. The poll I track most on this issue is the Economist/YouGov poll at it comes out often and always does the breakdown. The last one was conducted February 16 - 18 and is at https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... Report.pdf. Overall Trump was down among respondents by 12 percentage points (40% approve vs. 52% disapprove. But he's down by ore among those who feel strongly. 17 percentage points (25% strongly approve while 42% strongly disapprove). That basic picture is consistent with the way that poll has been on that question for as long as I can remember.

It's also consistent with respect to the basic picture (Trump's deficit among those who feel strongly is greater than his deficit overall) with other polls to at least some extent. Rasmussen poll results over time are available at https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... ex_history. Rasmussen is a Republican-biased poll but the gap among those who feel strongly has been consistently greater than the gap among all respondents. The latest Rasmussen poll had Trump down -2 among all respondents and down -5 among those who feel strongly.

As you know I consider the ABC News Washington Post poll to be the best. The last one was conducted 14 -17. It's at https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conte ... litics.pdf. That latest poll does not have MUCH of a difference among respondents overall and those that feel strongly but there is a difference and the gap is, again, wider among those who feel strongly. -10 among all respondents and -11 among those that feel strongly.

That is small and, again, consistent. You have to go back to the most recent previous ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted in January, to see a registered voters breakdown. But it's the same basic picture. The poll is at It was a good poll among registered voters for Trump as compared to previous ones. It had him down by 3 percentage points among all registered voters. But it had him down by 5 percentage points among respondents that felt strongly.

As you can see the difference is often small. But it's very consistent. It may be out there but I do follow that question closely and I don't believe I've ever seen a case in which the negative gap for Trump has not been greater among respondents who felt strongly than it was among respondents overall.

[AZGrizFan]

Trump doesn’t need Mini Mike running independent to win the election. Dem’s are gonna lose this all on their lonesome.

I think you have about a 50:50 shot at being correct. I think a lot of people under estimate the size of the "anybody but trump" population as well as the intensity edge on that side of the equation. I am disappointed in the way the Democrats are doing everything they can do to diminish their odds. But Biden was right when he said "I think we could run Mickey Mouse against this president and have a shot.”

Well, we’re gonna find out. Because Mickey Mouse would kick the shit out of any Dem left in the field.