Coronavirus COVID-19

[JohnStOnge]

Ok. We have passed a milestone of sorts. As of today the CDC COVID-19 death count went to 62,406. That's the count as of 4 pm EDT yesterday. See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html.

So now the actual COUNT of COVID-19 exceeds the 61,000 deaths point estimate for the 2017-2018 seasonal flu. See https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html. As you can see, the 2017-2018 season had the highest estimated death toll for seasons back through the 2010-2011 season.

How bad was the 2017-2018 flu season? Hard to say. I did find an article saying it was the worst in at least 40 years. See https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc ... hs-winter/. But the CDC was apparently estimating 80,000 deaths for the 2017-2018 season when that article was written.

The next milestone of sorts is to see if the actual COVID-19 count gets above the upper limit of uncertainty for the 2017-2018 flu season. That is 95,000 deaths. At this point I sure wouldn't rule it out. We have been in a holding pattern averaging a little over 2,000 deaths per day now since April 7. It was 2,349 yesterday according to CDC. At the Worldometers site it is, as I type, 1,892 so far today. If that keeps up for another two to three weeks the count is going to breach 95,000.

Then someday there is going to be a CDC estimate of how many COVID-19 associated deaths there actually were. It is going to be higher than the count. I am guessing the point estimate is going to be at least double.

People who said this is no more serious than the seasonal flu and perhaps even less so have already been shown to be wrong. And it's going to get worse. The "People" I reference include me by the way. I did say that.

The difference between me and some other people is that as the data came in and it became clear that I was wrong I changed my belief. I am STILL seeing people who refuse to do that.

[SDHornet]

What's not great about it is the impact it's had on the medical system in the US - we're laying off way too many medical workers because of the misguided and, as it turns out, unnecessary step to turn all the focus of the medical industry onto COVID. Outside of maybe NYC, we never should've had that hyper-focus on COVID at the expense of elective surgeries and other medical practicing. I think both the medical industry as well as millions of patients would've been in a better spot today had they been able to maintain treatment and seen their doctors through this rather than the one-size-fits-all lockdown that we stumbled into. Again, when we're laying off front-line medical personnel, in the midst of a pandemic, we've really screwed it up.

So yeah, other than that it's a great thing.

Ganny, be careful of criticizing decisions made a month or so ago based on what we know today. Most of these people will be brought back. Most elective surgeries will eventually take place. These aren't uneaten meals at restaurants that won't be made up.

Excellent point. The shut down made sense given the circumstances then. And given the circumstances now, it's time for about 95% of the country to return to "normal".

[UNI88]

Outside of NYC, the US collectively has been relatively successful at limiting the damage that COVID-19 might have done. This is especially true compared to Italy.

I think the jury is still out on that. First of all, at least as of the numbers at the Worldometers site as I type, the US deaths per million population drops from 199 to 121 if you subtract all New York STATE cases out of the equation. Even if there had been zero cases in New York State our position relative to other real countries (I'm leaving out things like the Italian city States on the list) changes from having the 10th highest cases per million population rate to having the 11th highest.

And what's going on here isn't on the decline. We have been stuck in a daily death count near 2,000 for a little over 3 weeks now. New York deaths have declined but as they have numbers of deaths reported by the rest of the country have increased so that the overall death rate has remained fairly constant. Right now I don't know how long that's going to go on.

We are doing way better than Italy right now in terms of deaths per million population. However, Italy is clearly on the decline and we are not. Here are the graphs:




If you go to the Worldometers site you will see similar trends in the daily new cases. Italy is clearly on the downslope. The United States is not.

How does the US look if you take out NYC (probably the majority of the deaths in New York and New Jersey)?

[89Hen]

Or how does it look if you chop off Italy on April 3rd, which is about where we are relative to them then?

[SDHornet]

It seems to me, or I believe that _X___
It seems to me, or I believe that _X___, but I have no way to prove that.
That is not a back flip.

[SDHornet]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:



So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

I linked that article a page or two ago. Good luck with anyone replying to it.

It’s all quite interesting. People cite the deaths due to economic depression but never mention the lives saved by lower traffic fatalities, dropping murder rates, etc. I’m not saying they equalize but they’re rarely mentioned in the economic disaster porn either.

Gil and JSO...maybe the two most rational posters on the CS pandemic threads right now.

Was going to add CA traffic deaths when I posted the CDC CA deaths in 2017 to compare how few Chinese Flu deaths there are. There were <2000 on CA freeways in 2016. It's so low, they have to base deaths per million miles traveled.

[SDHornet]

COVID-19 is worse (more contagious and deadly) than the flu.

COVID-19 is not as bad as the Plague or even the Spanish Flu.

Outside of NYC, the US collectively has been relatively successful at limiting the damage that COVID-19 might have done. This is especially true compared to Italy.

We shouldn't forget the sh!t that went down in Italy when crafting our response(s).

We can carefully open things back up so we can get the economy back on track and get people off of unemployment.

We shouldn't open things completely back up because we don't want to kickstart a massive second wave.

We need to find the balance of how much we can open up relatively safely. There will be some risk regardless and business owners will be reluctant to open up because they don't want the liability.

Large scale gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc.) would be extremely foolish in the short-term.

There will likely be a second and even third wave regardless of what we do. It's a question of timing and preparation.

Good post.

Last sentence though, this thing will be part of flu season from here on out. We'll have to learn to live with it until (if?) a vaccine is developed. That means the masks, social distancing, etc with things open. The "keep everything and everyone locked down" folks don't seem to grasp this.

[SDHornet]

All of this.

You sure? 100%? ALL of it?

Because if so, then if there's going to be a 2nd and 3rd wave "regardless of what we do" then howsabout we get the fuck on with it then?

Exactly.

[SDHornet]

CA Gov Newsom tried to lock down the SoCal beaches...

...as expected Orange County Sheriff said they aren't going to enforce his order...

I think this lock down nonsense will finally jump the shark here in CA. The idea that Newsom thought folks in SoCal would not hit the beach in the summer time just shows how disconnected he is from this. Counties in rural north are also saying they aren't going to follow the extended lock down orders.

[BDKJMU]

My bet is that it will be a rollercoaster with plateaus until reliable curative therapeutic treatments and/or surveillance level track and trace (app based and businesses requiring customer logs like golf in WA is doing) arrives to states, and a vaccine (perhaps as early as the fall). Areas that started early and stay on it longer will have more gradual peaks and valleys. Hot spots like are happening in Nebraska and around meat packing plants will set back those locations further and the plateaus will be longer.

How bad and prolonged do you want it? Same old question.

My cell phone fell in the lake with my guns. How am I supposed to track and trace?

Or if you have a personal flip phone like I do. Expecting everyone to have a smart phone (to say nothing of giving up their privacy) is dumb..

[AZGrizFan]

My cell phone fell in the lake with my guns. How am I supposed to track and trace?

Or if you have a personal flip phone like I do. Expecting everyone to have a smart phone (to say nothing of giving up their privacy) is dumb..

If they plan on starting to trace people I’ll be giving up my cell phone.

[BDKJMU]

Legislative approval of Michigan's state of emergency for stay-at-home and closing of most businesses expires after Thur. Republican controlled legislature refuses to extend it. So basically Fri the legislature will be saying the satte of emergency no longer exists, while Die Führerin Whitmer says it does.

[UNI88]

Or if you have a personal flip phone like I do. Expecting everyone to have a smart phone (to say nothing of giving up their privacy) is dumb..

If they plan on starting to trace people I’ll be giving up my cell phone.

[Gil Dobie]

My buddy from South Korea has the virus. Messaged me a few minutes ago about it, fever and pneumonia. He is quarantined in the bedroom from his wife and 2 kids for 14 days. He does have some health issues with high blood pressure. He manages at a Walmart here, and they had 52 people go home for 2 weeks a couple weeks ago. He just got back to work last week and now he's sick.

[Gil Dobie]

If they plan on starting to trace people I’ll be giving up my cell phone.

I suppose they could ping your phone like an Amber Alert, and say that a COVID-19 person was near you. They can already track phones. On TV today, they tracked the phones of everyone that went to Spring Training baseball game on a certain date, earlier this year, and mapped out where everyone went home to in the next few weeks.

[BDKJMU]

I suppose they could ping your phone like an Amber Alert, and say that a COVID-19 person was near you. They can already track phones. On TV today, they tracked the phones of everyone that went to Spring Training baseball game on a certain date, earlier this year, and mapped out where everyone went home to in the next few weeks.

So as I unsterstand this is possible with even wifi and location services turned off, or the phone completely powered off for that matter. I’ve read there’s some steps you can take that will only limit that.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/col ... 839642002/

Might be better to just carry a flip phone..

[BDKJMU]

Ok. We have passed a milestone of sorts. As of today the CDC COVID-19 death count went to 62,406. That's the count as of 4 pm EDT yesterday. See https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html.

So now the actual COUNT of COVID-19 exceeds the 61,000 deaths point estimate for the 2017-2018 seasonal flu. See https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html. As you can see, the 2017-2018 season had the highest estimated death toll for seasons back through the 2010-2011 season.

How bad was the 2017-2018 flu season? Hard to say. I did find an article saying it was the worst in at least 40 years. See https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc ... hs-winter/. But the CDC was apparently estimating 80,000 deaths for the 2017-2018 season when that article was written.

The next milestone of sorts is to see if the actual COVID-19 count gets above the upper limit of uncertainty for the 2017-2018 flu season. That is 95,000 deaths. At this point I sure wouldn't rule it out. We have been in a holding pattern averaging a little over 2,000 deaths per day now since April 7. It was 2,349 yesterday according to CDC. At the Worldometers site it is, as I type, 1,892 so far today. If that keeps up for another two to three weeks the count is going to breach 95,000.

Then someday there is going to be a CDC estimate of how many COVID-19 associated deaths there actually were. It is going to be higher than the count. I am guessing the point estimate is going to be at least double.

People who said this is no more serious than the seasonal flu and perhaps even less so have already been shown to be wrong. And it's going to get worse. The "People" I reference include me by the way. I did say that.

The difference between me and some other people is that as the data came in and it became clear that I was wrong I changed my belief. I am STILL seeing people who refuse to do that.

Well then you have 2 didferent CDC links saying 2 different things for 2017-2018, I saying 61k deaths that’s a preliminary estimate subject to revision, and 1 saying 79k.

CDC estimates that from 2010-2011 to 2017-2018, influenza-associated deaths in the United States ranged from a low of 12,000 (during 2011-2012) to a high of 79,000 (during 2017-2018).

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/fl ... 8-2019.htm

[BDKJMU]

NM Gov basically orders house arrest for Gallup, a city of 22k, using a “Riot Control Act“ that began noon yesterday:
-ALL businesses closed between 5 PM and 8 AM.
-Residents prohibited from being on public streets and the use of certain streets & highways.
-Only 2 people allowed in a car.
-All roads shut down in and out.
-Anyone who fails to comply with this Führerin’s edict will be found guilty of a misdemeanor, or a fourth-degree felony if they are found to be breaking the rules more than once.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-me ... rus-spread

This broad sounds worse that Whitmer..

[Ivytalk]

NM Gov basically orders house arrest for Gallup, a city of 22k, using a “Riot Control Act“ that began noon yesterday:
-ALL businesses closed between 5 PM and 8 AM.
-Residents prohibited from being on public streets and the use of certain streets & highways.
-Only 2 people allowed in a car.
-All roads shut down in and out.
-Anyone who fails to comply with this Führerin’s edict will be found guilty of a misdemeanor, or a fourth-degree felony if they are found to be breaking the rules more than once.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-me ... rus-spread

This broad sounds worse that Whitmer..

One of Sleepy Joe’s VPOTUS possibilities.

[GannonFan]

Yeah they have to make sure Pennsylvanians don’t cross the border to buy alcohol, esp at the Total Wine and More in Claymont right over the border..

https://www.inquirer.com/news/delaware- ... utType=amp

Yep, stay the fuck out. Not our fault your dipshit Gov made booze stores close.

Oh no, the beer stores and liquor stores in wealthy locales were still open, where Wolf got into trouble was the stores he didn't allow to be open where mainly in areas where minorities lived. Wealth (and race apparently) had its privileges when it came to buying alcohol.

[Gil Dobie]

CA Gov Newsom tried to lock down the SoCal beaches...

...as expected Orange County Sheriff said they aren't going to enforce his order...

I think this lock down nonsense will finally jump the shark here in CA. The idea that Newsom thought folks in SoCal would not hit the beach in the summer time just shows how disconnected he is from this. Counties in rural north are also saying they aren't going to follow the extended lock down orders.

Friend said they went for a walk on the beach yesterday, by their RV park. They were told to leave, beach wasn't opening until Monday.

[grizzaholic]

I suppose they could ping your phone like an Amber Alert, and say that a COVID-19 person was near you. They can already track phones. On TV today, they tracked the phones of everyone that went to Spring Training baseball game on a certain date, earlier this year, and mapped out where everyone went home to in the next few weeks.

I never get the missing kid alerts. The minute I get some government alert to my phone I will be getting rid of it.

[Gil Dobie]

I suppose they could ping your phone like an Amber Alert, and say that a COVID-19 person was near you. They can already track phones. On TV today, they tracked the phones of everyone that went to Spring Training baseball game on a certain date, earlier this year, and mapped out where everyone went home to in the next few weeks.

I never get the missing kid alerts. The minute I get some government alert to my phone I will be getting rid of it.

You can turn all that off.

[kalm]

NM Gov basically orders house arrest for Gallup, a city of 22k, using a “Riot Control Act“ that began noon yesterday:
-ALL businesses closed between 5 PM and 8 AM.
-Residents prohibited from being on public streets and the use of certain streets & highways.
-Only 2 people allowed in a car.
-All roads shut down in and out.
-Anyone who fails to comply with this Führerin’s edict will be found guilty of a misdemeanor, or a fourth-degree felony if they are found to be breaking the rules more than once.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-me ... rus-spread

This broad sounds worse that Whitmer..

Sounds like a temporary and necessary step and it was at the request of the Mayor. The death rate is still low but how many more are asymptomatic or hospitalized leading to additional deaths down the road? How many flue deaths does Gallup have in a normal April?

This will be another interesting place to follow.

[JohnStOnge]

I think the jury is still out on that. First of all, at least as of the numbers at the Worldometers site as I type, the US deaths per million population drops from 199 to 121 if you subtract all New York STATE cases out of the equation. Even if there had been zero cases in New York State our position relative to other real countries (I'm leaving out things like the Italian city States on the list) changes from having the 10th highest cases per million population rate to having the 11th highest.

And what's going on here isn't on the decline. We have been stuck in a daily death count near 2,000 for a little over 3 weeks now. New York deaths have declined but as they have numbers of deaths reported by the rest of the country have increased so that the overall death rate has remained fairly constant. Right now I don't know how long that's going to go on.

We are doing way better than Italy right now in terms of deaths per million population. However, Italy is clearly on the decline and we are not. Here are the graphs:




If you go to the Worldometers site you will see similar trends in the daily new cases. Italy is clearly on the downslope. The United States is not.

How does the US look if you take out NYC (probably the majority of the deaths in New York and New Jersey)?

I think that if you deleted the data for NYC the total number would obviously decrease but we would see a distinct upward trend right now instead of a relatively flat situation. The reason is that deaths reported by NYC peaked on April 7 and have been declining. Here is a graph from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page:



It is mixing data sources but this is the way it works: If you look at the April 7 NYC peak it's 570. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,278. So "rest of country" was 1708. On April 29 (the last date represented on the graph) the NYC count was 56. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,390. So "rest of country" was 2,334.

What's has been happening, in general, is that as NYC has been going down "rest of country" has been going up.

If you were to delete New York city what you would see is a graph with a clearly increasing trend instead of a national graph where things are relatively flat.