So you're saying 400 is out of reach then.

...and he reeled one in on his first cast.SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:45 pmWelcome to shit posting!GannonFan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:42 pm
Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon.![]()
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It depends on where and what the margin is. But I can see Trump suing regardless.
SeattleGriz wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:45 pmWelcome to shit posting!GannonFan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:42 pm
Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon.![]()
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Taking a half day and going for a bike rideIbanez wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:32 pm Anyone doing anything special tomorrow? We're heading to a friends house to watch the returns....we have a standing "family" dinner every Tuesday night so we'll do that, our daughters will have a sleep over and we'll just hang out.
We usually watch the returns, or have it on in the background while we're doing more important things...like sleeping.
Physical therapy in the morning then talking to the IRS (again) regarding payroll taxes after being on hold for 2 hours (again).Ibanez wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:32 pm Anyone doing anything special tomorrow? We're heading to a friends house to watch the returns....we have a standing "family" dinner every Tuesday night so we'll do that, our daughters will have a sleep over and we'll just hang out.
We usually watch the returns, or have it on in the background while we're doing more important things...like sleeping.
Wrong on both counts.Skjellyfetti wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:47 am BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45
..peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..
So he’s up within the MoE? This will be super close. Trump is already laying the groundwork to challenge. Wanna make a bet that if he loses in a landslide that he’ll sue, pout, throw a hissy fit and make the translation difficult?BDKJMU wrote:Wrong on both counts.Skjellyfetti wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:47 am BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45
-Rasumussen has Biden up 3.
-And that would be Trafalger, the only poll that had Trump winning PA and MI in 2016, has Trump up 2 in PA. Insider Advantage also has Trump up 2 in PA, and Susquehanna has Trump up 1.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6861.html
Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.
The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.
If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.
If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.
So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.
And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.
And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.
I doubt that's really happening. But, regardless, the point is that the unusually high proportion of votes cast by mail combined with the fact that Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail means that the effort to predict what will happen based on voter intent is confounded. The voter can fully intend to vote for a candidate then have their vote not counted. That is an additional source of error that is much more prominent than it has been in the past.AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:01 pmHard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.
The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.
If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.
If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.
So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.
And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.
And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.![]()
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Also hard to count when the Trump administration was trying to delay delivery and is suing to not count some votes. There’s plenty of suspicion and shenanigans from both parties and their lemmings.AZGrizFan wrote:Hard to count them when postal carriers are throwing them away by the thousands.JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:56 pm I think I"m seeing images of the Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" maps.
The actual situation now is similar to what it was in 2016. Under ordinary circumstances, there would be high confidence that Biden will win the popular vote. But the Electoral College is too close to call.
If you look at the Real Clear Politics page that considers toss ups at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... e_map.html, it has Biden favored in States totaling 216 electoral votes and Trump favored in States totaling 125 electoral votes. There are 14 states with 197 electoral votes rated as toss ups. So it could go either way.
If you look at the 538 election forecast at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/, it shows 89% confidence that Biden will win. That is not sufficient evidence, by convention, to make a call. Convention requires 95% confidence.
So, even if we were in normal circumstances, the polling does NOT indicate Biden is a lock to win.
And we are not in normal circumstances. We have a situation in which a much larger than normal number of people are voting by mail. Voting by mail carries a higher risk of not having your vote counted. And Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans are. I don't know if that is something polls can take into account. Pollsters ask about who you plan to vote for. I don't know if they can capture the phenomenon whereby people ATTEMPT to vote for one candidate or the other but don't have their vote counted.
And that potential source of error is exacerbated by the fact that Republicans are working very hard to see to it that mail in votes are not counted.![]()
![]()
JohnStOnge wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:13 pmI doubt that's really happening. But, regardless, the point is that the unusually high proportion of votes cast by mail combined with the fact that Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail means that the effort to predict what will happen based on voter intent is confounded. The voter can fully intend to vote for a candidate then have their vote not counted. That is an additional source of error that is much more prominent than it has been in the past.
Let's hope it doesn't mean Trump wins because this country really needs him out. But I do think it increases the probability that he will win.
..peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard..
So I won't quit my day job, bfd.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:57 pmAs you said on election morning 2016..![]()
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