The Ukraine Crisis

[GannonFan]

It’s indeed virtue signaling. Never miss a a marketing opportunity.

The Russian people are unfortunate collateral damage…but they have been for a very long time in a way.

Regardless…economic sanctions and divestment can be effective and I think the west is all in on Putin’s removal (and for clearly good reason). Pawns be damned.

the only hope is that the people get hurt enough to rise up (not in a military way) and make it uncomfortable enough that he stops these activities.

I wouldn't put any stock in that hope. This is the same population that endured so much misery while under the Soviet Union for close on 70 years and they never rose up. They would still be under heel to that oppressive regime if it hadn't collapsed under its own corruption and ineptitude. History tells us that the Russian people can be extremely resilient about enduring pretty crappy living conditions. Losing Netflix and not getting a Russian entry into Eurovision seems to be things they'll be able to live without.

[GannonFan]

Remember, cancelling the Keystone Pipeline wouldn't save a mouse fart worth of emissions but we had to nix it because white privilege (or something).

$4.45 per gallon where I live, easily up about $1 in the past month.

I know the Biden peeps are all trying to pin this on oil companies and saying they are taking advantage of the situation to make more money, after making record profits last year and they even trot out that "there are 9,000 current permits that their choosing not to drill on" line, never mentioning the fact that most of those permits are on land that doesn't have any oil, but details. And there's certainly some truth that it's speculation at this point that is driving up the cost of oil - when people are buying oil futures for several months out, there is a real fear that oil will be scarcer in the months ahead and paying more for oil now is a proper business risk. But the Biden peeps can't get around the fact that one of the first things they did, if not the very first thing, when entering office is to declare that fossil fuels were not welcome with this administration and they would do whatever they had to to begin to shift away from them. Canceling pipelines may be virtue signaling, but they also come with real world consequences. People aren't going to invest in a market that the politicians have declared to be undesirable, and we as taxpayers will pay the bill for those series of decisions.

Come November, this will be just one more nail in the coffin for the current ruling party. Hard to see a tide that could be more favorable to one party than what we're seeing currently for the GOP.

[CAA Flagship]

Biden will shortly announce a US ban on Russian oil.

But this is a multi-part issue, as most economic decisions are. Buying the oil from someone else does not necessarily hurt Russia. If we buy from another country, Russia will likely backfill them by selling to that country.
The only way to hurt Russia with a ban is for someone else to increase production to maintain the global supply.

[kalm]

the only hope is that the people get hurt enough to rise up (not in a military way) and make it uncomfortable enough that he stops these activities.

I wouldn't put any stock in that hope. This is the same population that endured so much misery while under the Soviet Union for close on 70 years and they never rose up. They would still be under heel to that oppressive regime if it hadn't collapsed under its own corruption and ineptitude. History tells us that the Russian people can be extremely resilient about enduring pretty crappy living conditions. Losing Netflix and not getting a Russian entry into Eurovision seems to be things they'll be able to live without.

I would be surprised as well but history doesn’t always repeat. We’re looking at massive information warfare waged in real time and financial warfare waged on a scale never before seen.

[LeadBolt]

There was an interesting article in yesterday’s NY Times about Ukrainians being berated by their relatives in Russia about falling for fake news about Russian troops attacking Ukrainian civilian targets and doing anything other than putting down the Nazi’s in Ukraine and helping the Ukrainian people.


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[GannonFan]

Biden will shortly announce a US ban on Russian oil.

But this is a multi-part issue, as most economic decisions are. Buying the oil from someone else does not necessarily hurt Russia. If we buy from another country, Russia will likely backfill them by selling to that country.
The only way to hurt Russia with a ban is for someone else to increase production to maintain the global supply.

Agreed - Russia is still making billions per day with their energy exports and there doesn't seem to be any appetite to really hurt them economically. Seizing a couple of expensive yachts isn't going to do the trick.

[93henfan]

I wouldn't put any stock in that hope. This is the same population that endured so much misery while under the Soviet Union for close on 70 years and they never rose up. They would still be under heel to that oppressive regime if it hadn't collapsed under its own corruption and ineptitude. History tells us that the Russian people can be extremely resilient about enduring pretty crappy living conditions. Losing Netflix and not getting a Russian entry into Eurovision seems to be things they'll be able to live without.

I would be surprised as well but history doesn’t always repeat. We’re looking at massive information warfare waged in real time and financial warfare waged on a scale never before seen.

It's a shame. For one brief moment in 1991, Metallica had an opportunity to take over the country, and they decided to end the show and leave. Opportunity lost.

[GannonFan]

I wouldn't put any stock in that hope. This is the same population that endured so much misery while under the Soviet Union for close on 70 years and they never rose up. They would still be under heel to that oppressive regime if it hadn't collapsed under its own corruption and ineptitude. History tells us that the Russian people can be extremely resilient about enduring pretty crappy living conditions. Losing Netflix and not getting a Russian entry into Eurovision seems to be things they'll be able to live without.

I would be surprised as well but history doesn’t always repeat. We’re looking at massive information warfare waged in real time and financial warfare waged on a scale never before seen.

I haven't seen a single bit of evidence to suggest that the Russian people as a whole are greatly different than they were 100 years ago. Maybe I'm being harsh, but the vast majority seem content, or at least seem resigned, to trudging along with whatever the powers that be tell them to do. Whether those powers be the Tsar, the Politboro, or Putin.

[Winterborn]

Remember, cancelling the Keystone Pipeline wouldn't save a mouse fart worth of emissions but we had to nix it because white privilege (or something).

$4.45 per gallon where I live, easily up about $1 in the past month.

I know the Biden peeps are all trying to pin this on oil companies and saying they are taking advantage of the situation to make more money, after making record profits last year and they even trot out that "there are 9,000 current permits that their choosing not to drill on" line, never mentioning the fact that most of those permits are on land that doesn't have any oil, but details. And there's certainly some truth that it's speculation at this point that is driving up the cost of oil - when people are buying oil futures for several months out, there is a real fear that oil will be scarcer in the months ahead and paying more for oil now is a proper business risk. But the Biden peeps can't get around the fact that one of the first things they did, if not the very first thing, when entering office is to declare that fossil fuels were not welcome with this administration and they would do whatever they had to to begin to shift away from them. Canceling pipelines may be virtue signaling, but they also come with real world consequences. People aren't going to invest in a market that the politicians have declared to be undesirable, and we as taxpayers will pay the bill for those series of decisions.

Come November, this will be just one more nail in the coffin for the current ruling party. Hard to see a tide that could be more favorable to one party than what we're seeing currently for the GOP.

Well said and spot on about what type of permits are available.

[Winterborn]

I would be surprised as well but history doesn’t always repeat. We’re looking at massive information warfare waged in real time and financial warfare waged on a scale never before seen.

I haven't seen a single bit of evidence to suggest that the Russian people as a whole are greatly different than they were 100 years ago. Maybe I'm being harsh, but the vast majority seem content, or at least seem resigned, to trudging along with whatever the powers that be tell them to do. Whether those powers be the Tsar, the Politboro, or Putin.

It is almost like they are happy being miserable.

[CAA Flagship]

Why oil is important for the overall economy:

https://whgbetc.com/petro-products.pdf

(Note: this is a rather haphazard list of products but it proves the point)

[GannonFan]

I haven't seen a single bit of evidence to suggest that the Russian people as a whole are greatly different than they were 100 years ago. Maybe I'm being harsh, but the vast majority seem content, or at least seem resigned, to trudging along with whatever the powers that be tell them to do. Whether those powers be the Tsar, the Politboro, or Putin.

It is almost like they are happy being miserable.

Or just don't think they can do much better. The history of Russia, going back a millennium, is just one episode after the next of beat downs and misery. There's a reason they fell for communism, anything had to be better than what they were already living through. Sure, losing Netflix will piss off the Muscovites, but the vast majority of Russians don't even know what Netflix is.

[BDKJMU]

Biden will shortly announce a US ban on Russian oil.

But this is a multi-part issue, as most economic decisions are. Buying the oil from someone else does not necessarily hurt Russia. If we buy from another country, Russia will likely backfill them by selling to that country.
The only way to hurt Russia with a ban is for someone else to increase production to maintain the global supply.

Plus much of the rest of Europe will still be sucking on the Russian oil tit.

[Winterborn]

It is almost like they are happy being miserable.

Or just don't think they can do much better. The history of Russia, going back a millennium, is just one episode after the next of beat downs and misery. There's a reason they fell for communism, anything had to be better than what they were already living through. Sure, losing Netflix will piss off the Muscovites, but the vast majority of Russians don't even know what Netflix is.

Probably a mix of both.

What I find odd is their cultural psyche is one way but they create (and have created) some very good (great) works of art (ballet, faberge eggs, etc.) and literature. They are an interesting group of people.

[GannonFan]

$4.45 per gallon where I live, easily up about $1 in the past month.

I know the Biden peeps are all trying to pin this on oil companies and saying they are taking advantage of the situation to make more money, after making record profits last year and they even trot out that "there are 9,000 current permits that their choosing not to drill on" line, never mentioning the fact that most of those permits are on land that doesn't have any oil, but details. And there's certainly some truth that it's speculation at this point that is driving up the cost of oil - when people are buying oil futures for several months out, there is a real fear that oil will be scarcer in the months ahead and paying more for oil now is a proper business risk. But the Biden peeps can't get around the fact that one of the first things they did, if not the very first thing, when entering office is to declare that fossil fuels were not welcome with this administration and they would do whatever they had to to begin to shift away from them. Canceling pipelines may be virtue signaling, but they also come with real world consequences. People aren't going to invest in a market that the politicians have declared to be undesirable, and we as taxpayers will pay the bill for those series of decisions.

Come November, this will be just one more nail in the coffin for the current ruling party. Hard to see a tide that could be more favorable to one party than what we're seeing currently for the GOP.

Well said and spot on about what type of permits are available.

And remember, on top of all of this we have record inflation, which this administration does share a large amount of the blame for with the unnecessary last bill of COVID relief as well as letting the Fed continue to print money for far longer than was needed. Inflation was controllable if we had taken the correct steps when we did. Heck, we should all be thanking Manchin for walking the Biden administration back from the cliff that would've been that Build Back Better monstrosity that would've been on top of all of that. Economically, this has been an abysmal administration to this point.

[GannonFan]

Or just don't think they can do much better. The history of Russia, going back a millennium, is just one episode after the next of beat downs and misery. There's a reason they fell for communism, anything had to be better than what they were already living through. Sure, losing Netflix will piss off the Muscovites, but the vast majority of Russians don't even know what Netflix is.

Probably a mix of both.

What I find odd is their cultural psyche is one way but they create (and have created) some very good (great) works of art (ballet, faberge eggs, etc.) and literature. They are an interesting group of people.

Suffering artists.

[CAA Flagship]

French Press reporting that Ukraine will no longer seek NATO membership.



And fuck the French.

[Winterborn]

Probably a mix of both.

What I find odd is their cultural psyche is one way but they create (and have created) some very good (great) works of art (ballet, faberge eggs, etc.) and literature. They are an interesting group of people.

Suffering artists.

That fits.

[Winterborn]

French Press reporting that Ukraine will no longer seek NATO membership.



And fuck the French.

The women need to eat a few cheeseburgers first.

[UNI88]

Or just don't think they can do much better. The history of Russia, going back a millennium, is just one episode after the next of beat downs and misery. There's a reason they fell for communism, anything had to be better than what they were already living through. Sure, losing Netflix will piss off the Muscovites, but the vast majority of Russians don't even know what Netflix is.

Probably a mix of both.

What I find odd is their cultural psyche is one way but they create (and have created) some very good (great) works of art (ballet, faberge eggs, etc.) and literature. They are an interesting group of people.

I'm trying to understand why Kalm wants them to change their cultural identity and overthrow a dictator. Why is ok to ask this but not to ask people to work hard, speak proper English, have a nuclear family, delay gratification, etc. in order to succeed?

[Winterborn]

Probably a mix of both.

What I find odd is their cultural psyche is one way but they create (and have created) some very good (great) works of art (ballet, faberge eggs, etc.) and literature. They are an interesting group of people.

I'm trying to understand why Kalm wants them to change their cultural identity and overthrow a dictator. Why is ok to ask this but not to ask people to work hard, speak proper English, have a nuclear family, delay gratification, etc. in order to succeed?

Something's you have to leave America in order for them to be acceptable.

[AZGrizFan]

the only hope is that the people get hurt enough to rise up (not in a military way) and make it uncomfortable enough that he stops these activities.

I wouldn't put any stock in that hope. This is the same population that endured so much misery while under the Soviet Union for close on 70 years and they never rose up. They would still be under heel to that oppressive regime if it hadn't collapsed under its own corruption and ineptitude. History tells us that the Russian people can be extremely resilient about enduring pretty crappy living conditions. Losing Netflix and not getting a Russian entry into Eurovision seems to be things they'll be able to live without.

oh, I don't, believe me. they are mere window dressing...Putin gonna Putin...

[AZGrizFan]

I haven't seen a single bit of evidence to suggest that the Russian people as a whole are greatly different than they were 100 years ago. Maybe I'm being harsh, but the vast majority seem content, or at least seem resigned, to trudging along with whatever the powers that be tell them to do. Whether those powers be the Tsar, the Politboro, or Putin.

It is almost like they are happy being miserable.

every socialist regime's ultimate objective....get your people happy being miserable.

[CAA Flagship]

French Press reporting that Ukraine will no longer seek NATO membership.



And fuck the French.

Big turnaround after the rumor hit the market. Biden took it down. Ukraine lifted it up.

[CAA Flagship]

It is almost like they are happy being miserable.

every socialist regime's ultimate objective....get your people happy being miserable.

But the Beatles told me that they were lucky to be in the USSR.