2022 Elections Thread

[UNI88]

Real leadership isn't about always voting according to the will of your constituents. Sometimes what your constituents want might not be the right thing. Real leadership is having the wisdom to recognize when that is true and the courage to do the right thing. trump deserved to be impeached over January 6. Cheney's a neocon and I don't like her but she and the others showed real leadership by voting the way they did.

trump endorsed a number of more extreme candidates that won primaries but will be more vulnerable in a general election. It will be ironic if his endorsements cost the Republican Party control of the Senate.

Real leadership.. Cheyney is carrying out a personal Vendetta against Trump. It has nothing to do with principles. There's countless examples of that Ex- the opening prime time hearing where she read the 1st part of that Trump tweet, but left off the last line about everyone go home in peace.

If you're an elected official, and you do something that the overwhelming majority of your constituents don't want you to do (by 40-50 points), then you can't fault them for not re electing you. And Cheney's constituents overwhelmingly, along with around half the country, think Trump didn't deserve to be impeached over 1/6.

at you about Cheney carrying out a personnel vendetta against trump. trump is constantly involved in personal vendettas against people he feels have wronged him. Should we list trump's vendettas? All of the Congress critters that voted for impeachment, Brian Kemp, etc. A trump supporter bitching about Cheney having a vendetta is beyond ironic.

Proof that half the country didn't think trump deserved to be impeached? Or did you chizzy that number? My guess is that approximately 1/3 of the country felt strongly that he should have been impeached, 1/3 felt strongly that he shouldn't have and the remaining 1/3 didn't feel strongly either way but that a slight majority of them leaned toward impeachment.

I don't have a problem with Cheney losing the primary. She took a stand and is responsible for the consequences. I wish trump would take responsibility for the consequences of his actions rather than blaming others.

[AZGrizFan]

Real leadership.. Cheyney is carrying out a personal Vendetta against Trump. It has nothing to do with principles. There's countless examples of that Ex- the opening prime time hearing where she read the 1st part of that Trump tweet, but left off the last line about everyone go home in peace.

If you're an elected official, and you do something that the overwhelming majority of your constituents don't want you to do (by 40-50 points), then you can't fault them for not re electing you. And Cheney's constituents overwhelmingly, along with around half the country, think Trump didn't deserve to be impeached over 1/6.

at you about Cheney carrying out a personnel vendetta against trump. trump is constantly involved in personal vendettas against people he feels have wronged him. Should we list trump's vendettas? All of the Congress critters that voted for impeachment, Brian Kemp, etc. A trump supporter bitching about Cheney having a vendetta is beyond ironic.

Proof that half the country didn't think trump deserved to be impeached? Or did you chizzy that number? My guess is that approximately 1/3 of the country felt strongly that he should have been impeached, 1/3 felt strongly that he shouldn't have and the remaining 1/3 didn't feel strongly either way but that a slight majority of them leaned toward impeachment.

I don't have a problem with Cheney losing the primary. She took a stand and is responsible for the consequences. I wish trump would take responsibility for the consequences of his actions rather than blaming others.

you missed the point. People want to believe Cheney is somehow altruistic and "willing" to sacrifice her political career for the good of the country. That had absolutely ZERO to do with why she loathed DJT. Zero. She's not some "principled savior" of the GOP. She had a vendetta, and she lost.

[JohnStOnge]

Real leadership isn't about always voting according to the will of your constituents. Sometimes what your constituents want might not be the right thing. Real leadership is having the wisdom to recognize when that is true and the courage to do the right thing.

Bingo. The sad thing about the Cheney situation is she is exactly the kind of person we need in politics. She is principled and she will not sacrifice her principles just to get elected. She did what all politicians should do. She staked out her positions based on what she believes is right (and IS right) and she said that if people want to vote against her for that it is what it is.

Liz Cheney is a conservative's conservative. But she refused to go along with lying to people. Wyoming's Republicans decided they would rather have someone who lies to them.

[JohnStOnge]

We have gotten to the point where Democrats have edged into a slight lead, at least for now, in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 generic congressional ballot polling averages. It's not a big enough lead to make one think they would hold the House if the election were held today. But for now the trend is going in the right direction for them.

Let's hope it continues because it's become clear that the Republican Party is even more a Party of dishonest politicians pandering to a base dominated by ignorant nut jobs than it was in 2020. Back then I wouldn't have thought it could get any worse. But it has.

[AZGrizFan]

Real leadership isn't about always voting according to the will of your constituents. Sometimes what your constituents want might not be the right thing. Real leadership is having the wisdom to recognize when that is true and the courage to do the right thing.

Bingo. The sad thing about the Cheney situation is she is exactly the kind of person we need in politics. She is principled and she will not sacrifice her principles just to get elected. She did what all politicians should do. She staked out her positions based on what she believes is right (and IS right) and she said that if people want to vote against her for that it is what it is.

Liz Cheney is a conservative's conservative. But she refused to go along with lying to people. Wyoming's Republicans decided they would rather have someone who lies to them.

I rest my case. "principled". "a conservative's conservative". She's perfectly fine with lying to people. just don't call her dad mean names.

[JohnStOnge]

]

you missed the point. People want to believe Cheney is somehow altruistic and "willing" to sacrifice her political career for the good of the country. That had absolutely ZERO to do with why she loathed DJT. Zero. She's not some "principled savior" of the GOP. She had a vendetta, and she lost.

There is absolutely no basis for saying that. She voted for Trump in 2020. She voted against impeaching him the first time. She turned against him when he did his "stolen election" crap and did what he did in association with the January 6 riot. There is absolutely no reason to believe that she had some kind of irrational vendetta.

Every thing she is saying is true. His "stolen election" schtick is a lie. He is seriously threatening the integrity of our Representative Republic institutions. He has cast a whole lot of unjustified doubt upon our election systems among the unfortunately very large number of idiots that are in his cult. She is correct in doing everything she can to try to make sure he never comes anywhere near the oval office again.

The truth is that ANY Republican Politician with integrity would have done what she did. Unfortunately, there are very few Republican politicians with integrity nowadays.

[UNI88]

Bingo. The sad thing about the Cheney situation is she is exactly the kind of person we need in politics. She is principled and she will not sacrifice her principles just to get elected. She did what all politicians should do. She staked out her positions based on what she believes is right (and IS right) and she said that if people want to vote against her for that it is what it is.

Liz Cheney is a conservative's conservative. But she refused to go along with lying to people. Wyoming's Republicans decided they would rather have someone who lies to them.

I rest my case. "principled". "a conservative's conservative". She's perfectly fine with lying to people. just don't call her dad mean names.

JSO's response right after yours made me

I don't believe that Cheney is "somehow altruistic" or a "principled savior". She's a neocon and I trust her about as far as I could throw trump. She has however sacrificed her political career in going after trump. She doesn't stand a chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination or of winning as an independent/3rd party candidate in 2024. She might get a cushy job on K Street or similar though.

Why did she have a vendetta? What mean thing did trump say about her dad that would have caused this? I see that trotted out as a reason for her "vendetta" but no links to actual statements. Is it really the cause or a trumpian deflection?

[AZGrizFan]

I rest my case. "principled". "a conservative's conservative". She's perfectly fine with lying to people. just don't call her dad mean names.

JSO's response right after yours made me

I don't believe that Cheney is "somehow altruistic" or a "principled savior". She's a neocon and I trust her about as far as I could throw trump. She has however sacrificed her political career in going after trump. She doesn't stand a chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination or of winning as an independent/3rd party candidate in 2024. She might get a cushy job on K Street or similar though.

Why did she have a vendetta? What mean thing did trump say about her dad that would have caused this? I see that trotted out as a reason for her "vendetta" but no links to actual statements. Is it really the cause or a trumpian deflection?

https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/trum ... -job-as-vp

Just one I found.

[BDKJMU]

Real leadership.. Cheyney is carrying out a personal Vendetta against Trump. It has nothing to do with principles. There's countless examples of that Ex- the opening prime time hearing where she read the 1st part of that Trump tweet, but left off the last line about everyone go home in peace.

If you're an elected official, and you do something that the overwhelming majority of your constituents don't want you to do (by 40-50 points), then you can't fault them for not re electing you. And Cheney's constituents overwhelmingly, along with around half the country, think Trump didn't deserve to be impeached over 1/6.

at you about Cheney carrying out a personnel vendetta against trump. trump is constantly involved in personal vendettas against people he feels have wronged him. Should we list trump's vendettas? All of the Congress critters that voted for impeachment, Brian Kemp, etc. A trump supporter bitching about Cheney having a vendetta is beyond ironic.

Proof that half the country didn't think trump deserved to be impeached? Or did you chizzy that number? My guess is that approximately 1/3 of the country felt strongly that he should have been impeached, 1/3 felt strongly that he shouldn't have and the remaining 1/3 didn't feel strongly either way but that a slight majority of them leaned toward impeachment.

I don't have a problem with Cheney losing the primary. She took a stand and is responsible for the consequences. I wish trump would take responsibility for the consequences of his actions rather than blaming others.

Roughly half in 21’
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6957.html#!

[BDKJMU]

Real leadership isn't about always voting according to the will of your constituents. Sometimes what your constituents want might not be the right thing. Real leadership is having the wisdom to recognize when that is true and the courage to do the right thing.

Bingo. The sad thing about the Cheney situation is she is exactly the kind of person we need in politics. She is principled and she will not sacrifice her principles just to get elected. She did what all politicians should do. She staked out her positions based on what she believes is right (and IS right) and she said that if people want to vote against her for that it is what it is.

Liz Cheney is a conservative's conservative. But she refused to go along with lying to people. Wyoming's Republicans decided they would rather have someone who lies to them.

[GannonFan]

We have gotten to the point where Democrats have edged into a slight lead, at least for now, in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 generic congressional ballot polling averages. It's not a big enough lead to make one think they would hold the House if the election were held today. But for now the trend is going in the right direction for them.

Let's hope it continues because it's become clear that the Republican Party is even more a Party of dishonest politicians pandering to a base dominated by ignorant nut jobs than it was in 2020. Back then I wouldn't have thought it could get any worse. But it has.

There is literally no chance the Dems hold onto the House, so don't try to do mental gymnastics with the math to make it so. Even the Senate is still pretty close, despite all of the GOP's self inflicted issues. Right now the smart money is on no change, Dems hold with the VP tiebreak of a 50/50 split. Maybe it moves one in either direction from there but that's about it. But the House is certainly turning, almost no doubt about that now.

[UNI88]

JSO's response right after yours made me

I don't believe that Cheney is "somehow altruistic" or a "principled savior". She's a neocon and I trust her about as far as I could throw trump. She has however sacrificed her political career in going after trump. She doesn't stand a chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination or of winning as an independent/3rd party candidate in 2024. She might get a cushy job on K Street or similar though.

Why did she have a vendetta? What mean thing did trump say about her dad that would have caused this? I see that trotted out as a reason for her "vendetta" but no links to actual statements. Is it really the cause or a trumpian deflection?

https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/trum ... -job-as-vp

Just one I found.

There are a lot of people who have said mean things about Dick Cheney, I'm not sure that's enough to upset him or Liz. The guy embraced the Darth Vader comparison.

There are also examples of Trump saying nice things about Dick Cheney - Trump Calls Dick Cheney 'Great Guy' in Video Resurfaced After 'Coward' Ad

IMO the "she's on a personal vendetta because trump said mean things about her dad" argument is an attempt to deflect attention away from January 6 and the role it played in her opinion of trump.

[JohnStOnge]

JSO's response right after yours made me

I don't believe that Cheney is "somehow altruistic" or a "principled savior". She's a neocon and I trust her about as far as I could throw trump. She has however sacrificed her political career in going after trump. She doesn't stand a chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination or of winning as an independent/3rd party candidate in 2024. She might get a cushy job on K Street or similar though.

Why did she have a vendetta? What mean thing did trump say about her dad that would have caused this? I see that trotted out as a reason for her "vendetta" but no links to actual statements. Is it really the cause or a trumpian deflection?

https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/trum ... -job-as-vp

Just one I found.

That article/video is dated January 2017. She voted against impeaching Trump in December, 2019.

[JohnStOnge]

We have gotten to the point where Democrats have edged into a slight lead, at least for now, in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 generic congressional ballot polling averages. It's not a big enough lead to make one think they would hold the House if the election were held today. But for now the trend is going in the right direction for them.

Let's hope it continues because it's become clear that the Republican Party is even more a Party of dishonest politicians pandering to a base dominated by ignorant nut jobs than it was in 2020. Back then I wouldn't have thought it could get any worse. But it has.

There is literally no chance the Dems hold onto the House, so don't try to do mental gymnastics with the math to make it so. Even the Senate is still pretty close, despite all of the GOP's self inflicted issues. Right now the smart money is on no change, Dems hold with the VP tiebreak of a 50/50 split. Maybe it moves one in either direction from there but that's about it. But the House is certainly turning, almost no doubt about that now.

I think that it is likely the Republicans will take the House. But I don't think it is a "no chance" situation.

There is a messaging problem though. For instance: There was 0 month to month inflation in July. But it's hard to get that through because of the way inflation is reported. It's reported in terms of how a month this year compares to the same month last year. So, once you have a jack up, it's hard to "see" when things ease. If June 2022 is 9.5% higher than June 2021, you're not going to "see" it in the numbers if prices between June 2022 and July 2022 don't increase at all. Because they were already elevated from last year, July 2022 is still going to be around 9% higher than July 2021 even if prices didn't increase at all during July 2022.

I think Biden has tried to get that across. He's mentioned that prices actually did not increase at all overall during July 2022. But it's hard to get people to understand that.

[JohnStOnge]

We have gotten to the point where Democrats have edged into a slight lead, at least for now, in both the Real Clear Politics and 538 generic congressional ballot polling averages. It's not a big enough lead to make one think they would hold the House if the election were held today. But for now the trend is going in the right direction for them.

Let's hope it continues because it's become clear that the Republican Party is even more a Party of dishonest politicians pandering to a base dominated by ignorant nut jobs than it was in 2020. Back then I wouldn't have thought it could get any worse. But it has.

There is literally no chance the Dems hold onto the House, so don't try to do mental gymnastics with the math to make it so. Even the Senate is still pretty close, despite all of the GOP's self inflicted issues. Right now the smart money is on no change, Dems hold with the VP tiebreak of a 50/50 split. Maybe it moves one in either direction from there but that's about it. But the House is certainly turning, almost no doubt about that now.

On the day when Roe vs. Wade was overturned, the Real Clear Politics average had Republicans up by 3.4 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average of polls. Today the Democrats took the lead for the first time since November 12, 2021, very narrowly, at 0.2 percentage points. There has been a trend. Will the trend continue? I don't know. But it looks a lot better now than it did before the Roe vs. Wade overturn.

We also have a situation in which some real looney tunes are winning Republican Primaries. That helps as well.

[Skjellyfetti]

Fact check: TRUE

[GannonFan]

There is literally no chance the Dems hold onto the House, so don't try to do mental gymnastics with the math to make it so. Even the Senate is still pretty close, despite all of the GOP's self inflicted issues. Right now the smart money is on no change, Dems hold with the VP tiebreak of a 50/50 split. Maybe it moves one in either direction from there but that's about it. But the House is certainly turning, almost no doubt about that now.

I think that it is likely the Republicans will take the House. But I don't think it is a "no chance" situation.

There is a messaging problem though. For instance: There was 0 month to month inflation in July. But it's hard to get that through because of the way inflation is reported. It's reported in terms of how a month this year compares to the same month last year. So, once you have a jack up, it's hard to "see" when things ease. If June 2022 is 9.5% higher than June 2021, you're not going to "see" it in the numbers if prices between June 2022 and July 2022 don't increase at all. Because they were already elevated from last year, July 2022 is still going to be around 9% higher than July 2021 even if prices didn't increase at all during July 2022.

I think Biden has tried to get that across. He's mentioned that prices actually did not increase at all overall during July 2022. But it's hard to get people to understand that.

Yes, it's a no chance. Almost all the primaries are done, we already know who all the loonies are and the GOP will still win more than enough seats to flip the House. The Senate is also much clearer too - maybe the GOP flips Georgia, but the Dems will flip PA and nothing will change in the Senate. Unless New Mexico gets more competitive it will be a 50/50 split again.

As for the messaging, come on. Inflation had to slow down eventually, unless we were going to become a tinpot Latin America economy. But just because prices didn't increase much from one month to the next month doesn't change the fact that prices, across the board, are crazy high compared to not long ago. That's a real problem and not just an issue of some messaging issue. We let inflation get out of control because we bought into the economic theory that there's no limit to the amount of government spending we can do and because the Fed was asleep at the wheel and held on to low interest rates and a huge balance sheet for far too long. Inflation was and always is a money supply issue. People's buying powers are far less today than they were a year ago and that's not an issue of messaging, that's a failure of government in its management of the economy.

[BDKJMU]

Did anyone catch Cheney's concession speech where she tried to compare herself to Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses Grant? After getting destroyed by 37 points, she hinted at running for POTUS, where she would have ZERO chance of winning. She is purely delusional. The best analogy I heard was getting cut from you're HS basketball team, then declaring for the NBA.

[UNI88]

Did anyone catch Cheney's concession speech where she tried to compare herself to Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses Grant? After getting destroyed by 37 points, she hinted at running for POTUS, where she would have ZERO chance of winning. She is purely delusional. The best analogy I heard was getting cut from you're HS basketball team, then declaring for the NBA.

When did being delusional become a bad thing for a President? The last dude claimed that 1.5 million people came to his inauguration and that the 2020 election was stolen. Talk about delusional. Who would have voted for that clown?

[JohnStOnge]

I think that it is likely the Republicans will take the House. But I don't think it is a "no chance" situation.

There is a messaging problem though. For instance: There was 0 month to month inflation in July. But it's hard to get that through because of the way inflation is reported. It's reported in terms of how a month this year compares to the same month last year. So, once you have a jack up, it's hard to "see" when things ease. If June 2022 is 9.5% higher than June 2021, you're not going to "see" it in the numbers if prices between June 2022 and July 2022 don't increase at all. Because they were already elevated from last year, July 2022 is still going to be around 9% higher than July 2021 even if prices didn't increase at all during July 2022.

I think Biden has tried to get that across. He's mentioned that prices actually did not increase at all overall during July 2022. But it's hard to get people to understand that.

Yes, it's a no chance. Almost all the primaries are done, we already know who all the loonies are and the GOP will still win more than enough seats to flip the House. The Senate is also much clearer too - maybe the GOP flips Georgia, but the Dems will flip PA and nothing will change in the Senate. Unless New Mexico gets more competitive it will be a 50/50 split again.

As for the messaging, come on. Inflation had to slow down eventually, unless we were going to become a tinpot Latin America economy. But just because prices didn't increase much from one month to the next month doesn't change the fact that prices, across the board, are crazy high compared to not long ago. That's a real problem and not just an issue of some messaging issue. We let inflation get out of control because we bought into the economic theory that there's no limit to the amount of government spending we can do and because the Fed was asleep at the wheel and held on to low interest rates and a huge balance sheet for far too long. Inflation was and always is a money supply issue. People's buying powers are far less today than they were a year ago and that's not an issue of messaging, that's a failure of government in its management of the economy.

it's not no chance. it looked like it was before the Roe vs. Wade overturn. But it does not look that way now. Yes, it looks likely that the Republicans will take the House. But it doesn't look like a "no chance" situation like it did a few months ago.

it's not just the loonies in their own races. i think the GOP has hurt its brand over the last couple of months. The loonies reflect upon the entire party. Also there is that thing where Republicans went on record saying they will take action to outlaw abortion nationally if they take over. That was not a smart thing to do. Even if they try to back off of it the quotes are on record.

There is definitely a trend going on right now. You can see it in things like this image from 538:



Bear in mind that the decision to overturn Roe was announced in late June.

if the trend continues things could get interesting. Will it continue? No way to know. At any time something could happen to reverse it. But it looks a lot more hopeful for Democrats right now than it did just a few months ago.

[houndawg]

It’s tedious explaining things to Ganny (see: fascism is a right wing movement) but he eventually goes away.

I agree, it must be incredibly tedious when you're wrong and you just continue to push it forward despite your initial bad first take. You're like a less Russophilic SG in that regard. And I never go away.

Do you still advertise as "the Cannon"?

[JohnStOnge]

On the idea that the Democrats keeping the House is not a "no chance" situation:

You can see the way i look at things by looking at my post on the page in our thread at https://www.championshipsubdivision.com ... start=2575. You have to scroll down to near the bottom of the page to see my post. But i posted on Presidential Election eve 2016 that Clinton beating Trump was not a done deal. I referenced the 538 forecast; which was saying there was a 70.3% chance that Clinton would win.

i noted that was about equivalent to a college football team being an 8.5 point favorite. Yes, they are the favorite. But it's not a big shock if they lose.

Right now the 538 forecast for who is going to hold the House after election day 2022 has the Republicans as having a 78% chance to do it. That is equivalent to a college football team being a 10.5 point favorite. Yes, i would rather my team be a 10.5 point favorite than a 10.5 point underdog. But a 10.5 point underdog is not in a "no chance" situation.

Then there is the fact that, after the polls had been showing a fairly stable situation since early 2022, there has been a sudden dramatic trend in the Democrat's direction since the Dobbs decision. Of course another thing that has been happening is that people are getting to see what kinds of nut jobs Republicans are nominating.

i would not say I am optimistic now. But the team i am pulling for is not a 30 point underdog. They're a 10.5 point underdog. And a 10.5 point underdog winning is not a rare, "no way it ever happens" thing.

Meanwhile i will hope that, for the sake of the country, those people who are in the middle wake up to the fact that the Republican Party is very bad news right now. No sane person should want them in power.

[kalm]

FOX News is RINO!

“Some Republicans are expressing concern that pro-Trump candidates in blue states, where the party has typically found success with more moderate candidates, could hurt the chances of large GOP gains in Congress and statehouses this November.


"It can’t continue," former Connecticut U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, a moderate Republican and Trump critic, told the Associated Press referring to the GOP choosing pro-Trump candidates. "One of the things that will happen is that a lot of the Trump candidates who won the primary will lose the general election. And there are a lot of unhappy Republicans who hold office now who believe that the Senate now is in jeopardy of staying Democratic."

Republican voters nominated pro-Trump candidates in several blue states, including Maryland and Connecticut, where more "moderate" GOP candidates have typically found success. “

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pro-tr ... l-red-wave

[houndawg]

It's all about trump. Fvck the Republican Party and fvck the country, donald's fragile ego is more important.

Which is interesting, because Cheney’s witch hunt was completely personal. He said mean things about her dad, and she made it her goal in life to make sure he never saw the White House again. Literally sacrificed her political career to attempt to accomplish a personal vendetta.

Her political career is not over - you gotta be the most out-of-touch person on this forum

[TheDancinMonarch]

Which is interesting, because Cheney’s witch hunt was completely personal. He said mean things about her dad, and she made it her goal in life to make sure he never saw the White House again. Literally sacrificed her political career to attempt to accomplish a personal vendetta.

Her political career is not over - you gotta be the most out-of-touch person on this forum

Of course her political career is over. At least a successful one. Republicans won't support her because she voted against Trump. Democrats won't support her because she voted to support the Trump agenda over 90% of the time.