Election Day - Predictions & Your State Info

[SDHornet]

Guam tips over. Elects a Republican rep for the first time since 1990.

[SDHornet]

Republicans will conquer the house. Senate will be close and there will be lawsuits and run-offs before everything is settled.

Brian Kemp defeats Steecee Eebrams by 4.
DeSantis wins by 6.
O'Rourke gets draxed.

Donks have a good day in Arizona and Pennsylvania but bad days in Texas, GA, and Florida.

The $15 MW will prevail in Nebraska and marijuana wins in all 5 states with referendums.

Reps taking the House was a given, the Senate gets more tricky as those late night shenanigans will come into play in AZ, PA and GA.

[SDHornet]

Team Brown coming through huge in this election. Remember bois, DeSantis squeaked by in 'the skin of his teeth last election, total rout this time around.

[kalm]

BREAKING:

Country is still divided.

[∞∞∞]

Still too early to establish as fact, but it's looking like a large youth turnout (+28 D) may have been a deciding factor staving off a red wave.

If so, great job Gen Z!

[Winterborn]

Republicans will conquer the house. Senate will be close and there will be lawsuits and run-offs before everything is settled.

Brian Kemp defeats Steecee Eebrams by 4.
DeSantis wins by 6.
O'Rourke gets draxed.

Donks have a good day in Arizona and Pennsylvania but bad days in Texas, GA, and Florida.

The $15 MW will prevail in Nebraska and marijuana wins in all 5 states with referendums.

We have the Devils Lettuce on the ballot here in ND but I am not sure it prevails. The constitutional amendment (which is how it is being put forth) was written a bit lax (or maybe odd is a better choice of words). We rejected recreational usage back in 2018 by a 59% to 40% margin. The 2018 measure was a free for all measure, this one has a bit more control. Will it be enough, I am not sure. It will be close that I know.

Personally I am still not happy with the verbiage but then I am extremely picky when it comes to these topics, as I have seen first hand what a poorly written bill becomes (and it ain't pretty).

On the local election front (State), the expected happen (R-sweep).

The interesting news is that Measure 1 passed (term limits and the margin was 63.4% to 36.6%), which was opposed by basically all the legislature and lobbyists. The measure was initially denied due to the signatures by the Secretary of State but the State Supreme Court overruled the Secretary of State and said the signatures were legal. This is the first time since 2000 that some type of term limit has been passed by the states.

Measure 2 was also voted down (legalize recreational marijuana) by a 54.9% to 45.1% margin (which is pretty close to what it was back in 2018).

[houndawg]

Senate 53 conk, 47 donk (hold everything, including PA), flip GA, NV, and one other, probably AZ. We won’t know by midnight ECB. Even tomorrow morning it could be about 50-47 conk with probably waiting on PA, GA, and AZ..

House Conks gain 30, so 242 total.

Gov conks hold all R seats and flip 3 Gov (WI, NV, OR). (which would make 31 conk gov, 18 donk, 1 lib Indy. Conks are long shots to pull upsets in NY, MI, and MN.

PA nothing flips (gov, senate, Congressional) (alrhough I haven’t followed the Congressional throughout the state).

Overall red tsunami.

[kalm]

Still too early to establish as fact, but it's looking like a large youth turnout (+28 D) may have been a deciding factor staving off a red wave.

If so, great job Gen Z!

Seems significant. They view the Republican Party and religious right in the same way they view dad jokes. Dems are terrible at elections but the R’s branding problem isn’t going to age well.

[houndawg]

Still too early to establish as fact, but it's looking like a large youth turnout (+28 D) may have been a deciding factor staving off a red wave.

If so, great job Gen Z!

Fetterman's win is being credited to suburban housewives who weren't that high on him but voted for him based on the SCOTUS decision

[houndawg]

Still too early to establish as fact, but it's looking like a large youth turnout (+28 D) may have been a deciding factor staving off a red wave.

If so, great job Gen Z!

Seems significant. They view the Republican Party and religious right in the same way they view dad jokes. Dems are terrible at elections but the R’s branding problem isn’t going to age well.

Evangelicals will take a white communist over a brown christian any day

[kalm]

[kalm]

Seems significant. They view the Republican Party and religious right in the same way they view dad jokes. Dems are terrible at elections but the R’s branding problem isn’t going to age well.

Evangelicals will take a white communist over a brown christian any day

Lol

[HI54UNI]

The red wave in Iowa got at least two of the statewide Dems. The 3rd has a 3,100 vote lead with a couple of precincts left so he will likely squeak it out. The 3 incumbent R US reps won easily and the only D Rep appears to have lost by about 2,000 votes.

[Pwns]

The $15 MW won by 17 points in pinko, commie Nebraska. Said it many times before but if the GOP became the anti-woke populists they'd be unstoppable.

[houndawg]

In a clear threat to democracy, the Donks are starting to already claim the elections in GA will be stolen.

Think about the will and determination of the people who have overcome the suppression to vote in record numbers.

FYP

[houndawg]

The $15 MW won by 17 points in pinko, commie Nebraska. Said it many times before but if the GOP became the anti-woke populists they'd be unstoppable.

the GOP isn't interested in that, thats not their mission.

[GannonFan]

Still too early to establish as fact, but it's looking like a large youth turnout (+28 D) may have been a deciding factor staving off a red wave.

If so, great job Gen Z!

Fetterman's win is being credited to suburban housewives who weren't that high on him but voted for him based on the SCOTUS decision

Fetterman had been the favorite in this election for months. It was only in the last couple of weeks that the extent of his limitations from the stroke came to light. He had ducked the normal debates and the one that he did participate in wasn't a pretty picture. With that said, Oz was never liked and was always seen as an outsider, which is what the Fetterman campaign spent most of the year drilling home in attack ads. And, at the end of the day, Oz was tied to Trump. That's always been the big anchor holding him back and it came to roost last night.

Fetterman was a bad candidate, especially with the health problems that he's suffered, but Oz was an even worse candidate. I said it earlier, show me a state that has two worse Senators than what PA was going to end up with after this election - the do nothing, run on his daddy's name Bob Casey Jr, and then either someone like Fetterman who's done really nothing in his career or an Oz who's main calling card is being a celebrity. We haven't really had a lot of good candidates on either side of the aisle stepping up in PA lately. On the bright side, Shapiro easily won and you could see him be a good Senate candidate in 2028 once his two terms as governor are up. I think that would be Casey's election so that would be a welcome shift from brain-dead to intelligent.

[BDKJMU]

WTF AZ and NV? The last 6 hrs or so tbey quit updating.

[kalm]

Female, small business owner (auto repair shop), multi-racial, ran on populism in a red district against a MAGA candidate. She leads by 6 pts with 80,000 votes still to count.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/08/11344221 ... house-race

[UNI88]

Seems significant. They view the Republican Party and religious right in the same way they view dad jokes. Dems are terrible at elections but the R’s branding problem isn’t going to age well.

Evangelicals will take a white communist over a brown christian any day

They'd vote for Bernie Sanders over Tim Scott?

[UNI88]

How are trump-endorsed candidates doing in critical races?
- Masters (AZ) - losing
- Oz (PA) - lost
- Walker (GA) - losing

Could trump's endorsement of poor candidates cost the Republicans the Senate? If it does will he be held accountable or will the MAGAts buy it when he calls them losers and makes excuses?

[GannonFan]

How are trump-endorsed candidates doing in critical races?
- Masters (AZ) - losing
- Oz (PA) - lost
- Walker (GA) - losing

Could trump's endorsement of poor candidates cost the Republicans the Senate? If it does will he be held accountable or will the MAGAts buy it when he calls them losers and makes excuses?

His support/endorsement is what cost the GOP the Senate in 2020 as well, and yet he still held sway. For the Dems, it's a two-edge sword - the Dems NEED Trump to be the candidate in 2024 - he can't win a national election and it would assure the Dems another 4 years of the White House. Considering their strategy of crossing the aisle to help Trump back candidates win GOP primaries (i.e. in NH and PA for Senate for instance), the Dems have to think they have a winning strategy going forward. But at the same time, propping up Trump and his supporters mean we're closer to the supposed end times that those candidates represent.

For the GOP, they clearly need to be done with Trump if they're going to win in '24. It's all there for the GOP to clean sweep - the Senate races are in their favor in '24 and worst case they are looking at a 50/50 Senate again after this election (or they're up 1 - all going to depend on GA runoff), and they'll have the House after this year as they continue the slow build they started in the House in 2020. If they run the right candidate, the Dems will have to decide if they throw Biden out there, dementia and all, in an election where he needs to be visible and active, or if they roll the dice with a thinner bench than the GOP has. Crazy, we haven't even finished counting in '22 and the '24 election is already shaping up.

[Baldy]

How are trump-endorsed candidates doing in critical races?
- Masters (AZ) - losing
- Oz (PA) - lost
- Walker (GA) - losing

Could trump's endorsement of poor candidates cost the Republicans the Senate? If it does will he be held accountable or will the MAGAts buy it when he calls them losers and makes excuses?

1. The Trumptards will never be able to look in the mirror. They will hang their hat on conspiracy theories.
2. This election was really strange. The Conks did unexpectedly well in some areas, but got absolutely crushed by independents in blue states where there were Trumpy candidates on the ballot.

Following the money over the last few months...DeSantis has been able to accumulate almost $200 Million in his war chest. He still has close to $100 million left after this election cycle. Lots of Trumps biggest donors have already jumped ship. Last night's results will probably accelerate the shift...hopefully.

[LeadBolt]

Money matters. The Dems had and spent more.

Candidate quality matters. Although I would not say either side had as many statesmen vs politicians as I would like, Republicans had several glaring weaknesses in winnable elections that hurt them.

Trump matters. His presence helps D’s and hurts R’s. He needs to go away.


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[∞∞∞]

WTF AZ and NV? The last 6 hrs or so tbey quit updating.

There are some states (Nevada being one, IDK about Arizona) where poll workers don't work through the night.

They just go home and get back to it in the morning.