Electoral Maps - Pre-Conventions

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here is the McCain vs. Obama electoral map I put together based on general election polls that were concluded & released from August 1 to August 25. I average all results from major independent polls (Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, etc.), "partisan"* polls (Public Policy, Strategic Vision, Civitas/TelOpinion, etc.), and Zogby internet polls. If there were multiple polls from the same source over that period, I only used that source's latest poll. If the only polls for a particular state were conducted prior to August 1, I just used the most recent poll. In any poll where there were "with leaners" & "without leaners" results, I used the "with leaners" numbers. To find polls, I use 4 poll archive sources: http://www.electoral-vote.com, http://www.pollster.com, http://www.usaelectionpolls.com, & http://www.realclearpolitics.com.

• * - "Partisan" polls are those typically given by polling companies that are commissioned by party sources. The major "partisan" polls do not seem to show any bias in the questions or the results when compared to "independent" polls, however.

• Winner take-all:

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Changes from last month:

• - McCain takes back Nevada, Indiana, & Florida.
  - McCain takes the lead for the first time in New Hampshire.
  - Virginia moves from slightly Obama into a tie.
  - Obama takes Alaska for the first time. I will admit that the August poll in AK (by the Alaska-based Hays Research Group) is a little dubious due to some odd household selection methods. I still used it, though, since it was the only AK poll this month & the methods (only calling households where at least 1 member had voted in 2 of the last 4 state elections), if anything, would underrepresent the young vote & possibly shortchange Obama's support.
  - Net result: McCain gains 44 electoral votes, Obama loses 57, & 13 more are tied (making a total of 36).

• Gradient Map:

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Other notable changes from last month:

• - Indiana moved from slightly Obama to leaning McCain (5+ points).
  - Things seem to be more polarized: fewer toss-up states & more states where a candidate enjoys a double-digit lead.