GOP: The Pro-Life Party

[Gil Dobie]

That's not what you said. You said using 140 it was an astronomical number. Was that just a mistake?

You skipped a post.

Maybe if you quit making shit up.

140 was the death count 2 days ago, 225 deaths yesterday, 780 total deaths out of 54,000 cases.
60,000 flu deaths out of 54,000,000 cases is about a .11 percent death rate
780 cases out of 54,000 cases is about a 1.44 percent death rate. Around 54,600 of the cases are still active. And for BDK, I understand there are cases that have not been tested, so the numbers are not 100 percent accurate, similar to the flu.

Left unmitigated, if 54,000,000 Americans get COVID-19, at a 1.44 percent death rate, that's approx 777, 600 deaths. Similar to the flu.

[89Hen]

You skipped a post.

Maybe if you quit making shit up.

140 was the death count 2 days ago, 225 deaths yesterday, 780 total deaths out of 54,000 cases.
60,000 flu deaths out of 54,000,000 cases is about a .11 percent death rate
780 cases out of 54,000 cases is about a 1.44 percent death rate. Around 54,600 of the cases are still active. And for BDK, I understand there are cases that have not been tested, so the numbers are not 100 percent accurate, similar to the flu.

Left unmitigated, if 54,000,000 Americans get COVID-19, at a 1.44 percent death rate, that's approx 777, 600 deaths. Similar to the flu.

You need to go back and read what you posted Gil. I'm sorry you're stressed out. Seriously, it's not like you at all.

[Gil Dobie]

Maybe if you quit making shit up.

140 was the death count 2 days ago, 225 deaths yesterday, 780 total deaths out of 54,000 cases.
60,000 flu deaths out of 54,000,000 cases is about a .11 percent death rate
780 cases out of 54,000 cases is about a 1.44 percent death rate. Around 54,600 of the cases are still active. And for BDK, I understand there are cases that have not been tested, so the numbers are not 100 percent accurate, similar to the flu.

Left unmitigated, if 54,000,000 Americans get COVID-19, at a 1.44 percent death rate, that's approx 777, 600 deaths. Similar to the flu.

You need to go back and read what you posted Gil. I'm sorry you're stressed out. Seriously, it's not like you at all.

I did look back and could not find where I thought 140 was more that the total from 2 days ago.

[kalm]

My main reason to respond in this thread was about what the Lt Governor of Texas, Patrick said. Sacrifice the grandparents for the children, just let this thing go. I have no problem with the gradual return to normalcy. 89Hen thinks its just like the flu, BDK and Pwns appeared to agree, let this thing go to restore the economy, sacrifice the old people. Then BDK came back with the gradual return to normalcy.

Sure, but that's where the middle ground is found - you have folks like Trump and the Lt Gov say one thing, you have the Cuomo's of the world say something diametrically different, and the actual solution is somewhere in between. And that somewhere in between is already being worked out thousands of times over in all of the businesses (like mine for instance) that aren't shuttered right now but are operating with revised procedures to practically impose social distancing in an everyday setting. Heck, I'm typing this while on the phone in a video conference for a meeting that's taking place 50 ft away in a conference room just so I can make sure to not have too many people in the actual room and too close together. Middle ground is always reachable, sometimes you just need to do a little work to find it.

There are too many dumb people that won't follow social distancing guidelines. We've already seen that. Sometimes even smart people slip up too. According to the New England Journal of Medicine study the virus can cling to metal surfaces for up to 72 hours. So you open a door, turn on a faucet, grab a can of beer from the store, forget to not touch your face or wash your hands and you can spread it.

That's why smart states have moved to suppression tactics that have worked in places like Japan. I'd rather be Japan than Italy. Mitigation is the middle ground and it will only delay the spread and cause more deaths.

[GannonFan]

Sure, but that's where the middle ground is found - you have folks like Trump and the Lt Gov say one thing, you have the Cuomo's of the world say something diametrically different, and the actual solution is somewhere in between. And that somewhere in between is already being worked out thousands of times over in all of the businesses (like mine for instance) that aren't shuttered right now but are operating with revised procedures to practically impose social distancing in an everyday setting. Heck, I'm typing this while on the phone in a video conference for a meeting that's taking place 50 ft away in a conference room just so I can make sure to not have too many people in the actual room and too close together. Middle ground is always reachable, sometimes you just need to do a little work to find it.

There are too many dumb people that won't follow social distancing guidelines. We've already seen that. Sometimes even smart people slip up too. According to the New England Journal of Medicine study the virus can cling to metal surfaces for up to 72 hours. So you open a door, turn on a faucet, grab a can of beer from the store, forget to not touch your face or wash your hands and you can spread it.

That's why smart states have moved to suppression tactics that have worked in places like Japan. I'd rather be Japan than Italy. Mitigation is the middle ground and it will only delay the spread and cause more deaths.

The thing is, even in the states with "suppression" tactics we are already nowhere near the idea of everyone hunkered in their houses for weeks on end. I'm in the heart of the worst of it in PA and I wake up and go to work everyday, as do many others who work in similar "life sustaining" businesses, and the list of those businesses isn't small. I walk at lunch everyday over at a township park near work and there are people out on the trails everyday. They did finally get some commonsense and they closed the playground area as they were never disinfecting it and kids would play on it. Not so much worried about the kids as I would be the grandmom and grandpop watching them and then holding their hands on the way to the car.

But the point being that we are already operating on something lower than "suppression tactics" and outside of NYC, it's not been terrible. The trick is how to slowly ramp things back so that the restaurants and hair dressers and retail stores can come back on line and back to work. It won't be business as usual, and it shouldn't be, but it will be more than it is now.

[89Hen]

You need to go back and read what you posted Gil. I'm sorry you're stressed out. Seriously, it's not like you at all.

I did look back and could not find where I thought 140 was more that the total from 2 days ago.

First you said the flu kills 50 people a day. I said that can't be correct because we've had years where the flu kills 61,000 in a flu season.

Instead of addressing that, you went on to say that at 140 per day Covid would kill over 170,000 people.

That's where I've had a problem with what your posting. Again, I'm not joking that I hope you're OK. It's not like you to be so rattled.

[89Hen]

There are too many dumb people

You could have just stopped there.

[kalm]

There are too many dumb people that won't follow social distancing guidelines. We've already seen that. Sometimes even smart people slip up too. According to the New England Journal of Medicine study the virus can cling to metal surfaces for up to 72 hours. So you open a door, turn on a faucet, grab a can of beer from the store, forget to not touch your face or wash your hands and you can spread it.

That's why smart states have moved to suppression tactics that have worked in places like Japan. I'd rather be Japan than Italy. Mitigation is the middle ground and it will only delay the spread and cause more deaths.

The thing is, even in the states with "suppression" tactics we are already nowhere near the idea of everyone hunkered in their houses for weeks on end. I'm in the heart of the worst of it in PA and I wake up and go to work everyday, as do many others who work in similar "life sustaining" businesses, and the list of those businesses isn't small. I walk at lunch everyday over at a township park near work and there are people out on the trails everyday. They did finally get some commonsense and they closed the playground area as they were never disinfecting it and kids would play on it. Not so much worried about the kids as I would be the grandmom and grandpop watching them and then holding their hands on the way to the car.

But the point being that we are already operating on something lower than "suppression tactics" and outside of NYC, it's not been terrible. The trick is how to slowly ramp things back so that the restaurants and hair dressers and retail stores can come back on line and back to work. It won't be business as usual, and it shouldn't be, but it will be more than it is now.

Agree with most all of this.

The kids on playground equipment is a great example of the difference between mitigation (social distancing) and suppression. 6 feet versus germs left on hard surfaces. Left to their own devices people will read exercise as good but instead of walking the dog will feel entitled to slide.

You and I know to take precautions but not everyone does.

Suppression = a quicker path to normal.

[Gil Dobie]

I did look back and could not find where I thought 140 was more that the total from 2 days ago.

First you said the flu kills 50 people a day. I said that can't be correct because we've had years where the flu kills 61,000 in a flu season.

Instead of addressing that, you went on to say that at 140 per day Covid would kill over 170,000 people.

That's where I've had a problem with what your posting. Again, I'm not joking that I hope you're OK. It's not like you to be so rattled.

I said COVID-19, kills at a higher rate. Using your flu percentages, I used the COVID-19 rates per the same number of people affected by the flu. This would happen if there was no mitigation.

[BDKJMU]

But you agree this is a valid discussion. NOBODY knows how many would die with fewer measures. NOBODY knows how many will die period. But it would seem if anyone dare debate this, they're castigated as a heartless person. I don't care about company profits (looking at you Jeff), but if millions of people will end up destitute to save a few thousand... isn't that a valid discussion to have?

The experts have an idea from looking at the stats in China, S Korea and Italy.

Stop it with the China and Italy comparisons. No reason to trust the China #s for the obvious reason.

We are NOTHING like Italy when it comes to this.
1. Italy 2nd oldest population in the world.
2. Italy 2-3 generations under 1 roof far more than not only the US, but more than other countries in Europe. WSJ article below on this. 30-49 yr olds living with parents. 23% Italy, US 6.4%. More chance for exposure.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/family-is- ... 1585058566
3.Italy 6x+ the density of the US. Most of Western Europe (with the exception of some of Scandanavia) more dense. More of the population lives high density (even small towns & villages are more compact). More chance for exposure.
4. Italy, like most of Europe, lesser percentage has cars, and a higher percentage uses public transportation (which ties into density). More chance for exposure.
5. Italy, like much of Europe, different grocery & shopping habits (which ties into density). Something that was finally mentioned on the news last week- someone in Italy pleading with the populace to quit doing their nearly everyday grocery trip. Lots of Europeans will do 4,5,6 small shops a week, plus hit a Farmer’s market on the weekend. You’re not taking a ½ doz to a doz bags of groceries on public transit and/or walking a ways with them. Plus smaller homes & apartments where they don’t have the storage space and typically 1 frig/freezer not as big as the avg American one. More chance for exposure. Most Americans will hit the grocery store 1-2 times a week. I've spent significant time in most of Western Europe outside Scandanavia, + longterm German gf, British SIL, so have seen this 1st hand.
6. Italy Higher smoking rates.
7. Italy, like much of Europe, closer definition of personal space. Have experienced this in a lot of countries. More chance for exposure.
https://www.disgracesonthemenu.com/2016 ... lians.html
8. Double cheek kiss greeting (I’ve seen it in Italy, Greece, Spain, France, Belgium, might be forgetting a few). More chance for exposure.
9. Italy, like much of Europe, doesn’t have the military assets the US that can assist. I linked earlier on here the John's Hopkins study saying the US was best prepared in the world for this. Italy was a ways down the list.

[BDKJMU]

People skipped over this, and maybe BDK was backtracking, but I think he's correct. When we come out of this shelter-in-place thing, and we may end up doing it somewhere near Trump's weird Easter target, it's not going to be business as usual. We're going to slowly walk back in that direction, but all of the social distancing, cleanings, and other preventative measures are still going to be in effect to some extent. Visitor's to businesses are still going to be restricted, there are still going to be time to disinfect offices and manufacturing plants built into regular work, and the same will be said for dining and restaurants and entertainment venues (likely to build in restricted access to avoid overcrowding). And not every place will be the same - NYC is a vastly different situation than is a suburb 45 minutes outside of New York than is a farm community 45 minutes away from the suburb - you can't treat them as if they are identical. Heck, I'm looking forward to going down the Jersey shore this July and have them institute some social distancing still at that time - will make for a far less crowded beach, although I'll have to get down there sooner to stake out my spot.

My main reason to respond in this thread was about what the Lt Governor of Texas, Patrick said. Sacrifice the grandparents for the children, just let this thing go. I have no problem with the gradual return to normalcy. 89Hen thinks its just like the flu, BDK and Pwns appeared to agree, let this thing go to restore the economy, sacrifice the old people. Then BDK came back with the gradual return to normalcy.

Link on the TX Lt Gov saying "Sacrifice the grandparents for the children, just let this thing go."
I never said "let this thing go to restore the economy, sacrifice the old people." (which would be a do nothing extreme). You are getting CDS..

[Gil Dobie]

The experts have an idea from looking at the stats in China, S Korea and Italy.

Stop it with the China and Italy comparisons. No reason to trust the China #s for the obvious reason.

We are NOTHING like Italy when it comes to this.
1. Italy 2nd oldest population in the world.
2. Italy 2-3 generations under 1 roof far more than not only the US, but more than other countries in Europe. WSJ article below on this. 30-49 yr olds living with parents. 23% Italy, US 6.4%. More chance for exposure.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/family-is- ... 1585058566
3.Italy 6x+ the density of the US. Most of Western Europe (with the exception of some of Scandanavia) more dense. More of the population lives high density (even small towns & villages are more compact). More chance for exposure.
4. Italy, like most of Europe, lesser percentage has cars, and a higher percentage uses public transportation (which ties into density). More chance for exposure.
5. Italy, like much of Europe, different grocery & shopping habits (which ties into density). Something that was finally mentioned on the news last week- someone in Italy pleading with the populace to quit doing their nearly everyday grocery trip. Lots of Europeans will do 4,5,6 small shops a week, plus hit a Farmer’s market on the weekend. You’re not taking a ½ doz to a doz bags of groceries on public transit and/or walking a ways with them. Plus smaller homes & apartments where they don’t have the storage space and typically 1 frig/freezer not as big as the avg American one. More chance for exposure. Most Americans will hit the grocery store 1-2 times a week. I've spent significant time in most of Western Europe outside Scandanavia, + longterm German gf, British SIL, so have seen this 1st hand.
6. Italy Higher smoking rates.
7. Italy, like much of Europe, closer definition of personal space. Have experienced this in a lot of countries. More chance for exposure.
https://www.disgracesonthemenu.com/2016 ... lians.html
8. Double cheek kiss greeting (I’ve seen it in Italy, Greece, Spain, France, Belgium, might be forgetting a few). More chance for exposure.
9. Italy, like much of Europe, doesn’t have the military assets the US that can assist. I linked earlier on here the John's Hopkins study saying the US was best prepared in the world for this. Italy was a ways down the list.

I also mentioned California and NY in this thread.

[BDKJMU]

The thing is, even in the states with "suppression" tactics we are already nowhere near the idea of everyone hunkered in their houses for weeks on end. I'm in the heart of the worst of it in PA and I wake up and go to work everyday, as do many others who work in similar "life sustaining" businesses, and the list of those businesses isn't small. I walk at lunch everyday over at a township park near work and there are people out on the trails everyday. They did finally get some commonsense and they closed the playground area as they were never disinfecting it and kids would play on it. Not so much worried about the kids as I would be the grandmom and grandpop watching them and then holding their hands on the way to the car.

But the point being that we are already operating on something lower than "suppression tactics" and outside of NYC, it's not been terrible. The trick is how to slowly ramp things back so that the restaurants and hair dressers and retail stores can come back on line and back to work. It won't be business as usual, and it shouldn't be, but it will be more than it is now.

Agree with most all of this.

The kids on playground equipment is a great example of the difference between mitigation (social distancing) and suppression. 6 feet versus germs left on hard surfaces. Left to their own devices people will read exercise as good but instead of walking the dog will feel entitled to slide.

You and I know to take precautions but not everyone does.

Suppression = a quicker path to normal.

Agree with most of what GF said also.

To add- when the restrictions are ramped back in April, nationwide (but esp in hot spots) elderly (say over 70) and anyone else (esp 50s-60s) with certain pre exisiting conditions should be encouraged (can't be forced) as much as possible to self isolate/quarantine at least a few more months. Should be given assistance to do so local/state/federal govts, charitable, family. Have limited to no contact deliveries of what they need at little to no extra cost. Biggest issues:
-those folks still need to go to doc's offices and hospitals the most for just their regular issues. Telemedicine and home visits could only decrease that sleightly. Sure some will still catch the virus, but could keep it limited.
-multi generational households with elderly living with children and/or grandchildren.
Think it could be at least kept in check amongst the high risks groups.

It doesn't matter as much how many non elderly/non pre existing conditions get it, because they by themselves aren't going to swamp the hospitals/ICUs.

[kalm]

Agree with most all of this.

The kids on playground equipment is a great example of the difference between mitigation (social distancing) and suppression. 6 feet versus germs left on hard surfaces. Left to their own devices people will read exercise as good but instead of walking the dog will feel entitled to slide.

You and I know to take precautions but not everyone does.

Suppression = a quicker path to normal.

Agree with most of what GF said also.

To add- when the restrictions are ramped back in April, nationwide (but esp in hot spots) elderly (say over 70) and anyone else (esp 50s-60s) with certain pre exisiting conditions should be encouraged (can't be forced) as much as possible to self isolate/quarantine at least a few more months. Should be given assistance to do so local/state/federal govts, charitable, family. Have limited to no contact deliveries of what they need at little to no extra cost. Biggest issues:
-those folks still need to go to doc's offices and hospitals the most for just their regular issues. Telemedicine and home visits could only decrease that sleightly. Sure some will still catch the virus, but could keep it limited.
-multi generational households with elderly living with children and/or grandchildren.
Think it could be at least kept in check amongst the high risks groups.

It doesn't matter as much how many non elderly/non pre existing conditions get it, because they by themselves aren't going to swamp the hospitals/ICUs.

Maybe but there’s already a lawsuit in WA state over denial of service to people with disabilities and there are numerous cases of seemingly healthy, young individuals being hospitalized.

‘Sorry but you probably won’t pull through anyway so we’re gonna give the bed and respirator to young Johnny who at least has a fighting chance.’

Fuck that. We’re better.

[Gil Dobie]

I did look back and could not find where I thought 140 was more that the total from 2 days ago.

First you said the flu kills 50 people a day. I said that can't be correct because we've had years where the flu kills 61,000 in a flu season.

Instead of addressing that, you went on to say that at 140 per day Covid would kill over 170,000 people.

That's where I've had a problem with what your posting. Again, I'm not joking that I hope you're OK. It's not like you to be so rattled.

Well I guess I'm not explaining it so you can under stand it. 170,000 comes from a total, if you compare the death rates, not from the 140 per day number from 2 days ago, but if the same number of cases existed for COVID-19 that exist for the flu.

[BDKJMU]

Agree with most of what GF said also.

To add- when the restrictions are ramped back in April, nationwide (but esp in hot spots) elderly (say over 70) and anyone else (esp 50s-60s) with certain pre exisiting conditions should be encouraged (can't be forced) as much as possible to self isolate/quarantine at least a few more months. Should be given assistance to do so local/state/federal govts, charitable, family. Have limited to no contact deliveries of what they need at little to no extra cost. Biggest issues:
-those folks still need to go to doc's offices and hospitals the most for just their regular issues. Telemedicine and home visits could only decrease that sleightly. Sure some will still catch the virus, but could keep it limited.
-multi generational households with elderly living with children and/or grandchildren.
Think it could be at least kept in check amongst the high risks groups.

It doesn't matter as much how many non elderly/non pre existing conditions get it, because they by themselves aren't going to swamp the hospitals/ICUs.

Maybe but there’s already a lawsuit in WA state over denial of service to people with disabilities and there are numerous cases of seemingly healthy, young individuals being hospitalized.

‘Sorry but you probably won’t pull through anyway so we’re gonna give the bed and respirator to young Johnny who at least has a fighting chance.’

Fuck that. We’re better.

How many is "numerous" compared to the total number of tested positive? Data on that?

Also remember the total # confirmed cases is only a fraction of the total people who have/had it according to literally everyone..If WA has about 2500 confirmed cases, and 20-30k probable including all the uncomfirmed/asymtomatic, a few doz young, healthy being hospitalized is a TINY fraction of that. Heck, even a few hundred would be a tiny fraction.

[kalm]

Maybe but there’s already a lawsuit in WA state over denial of service to people with disabilities and there are numerous cases of seemingly healthy, young individuals being hospitalized.

‘Sorry but you probably won’t pull through anyway so we’re gonna give the bed and respirator to young Johnny who at least has a fighting chance.’

Fuck that. We’re better.

How many is "numerous" compared to the total number of tested positive? Data on that?

Also remember the total # confirmed cases is only a fraction of the total people who have/had it according to literally everyone..If WA has about 2500 confirmed cases, and 20-30k probable including all the uncomfirmed/asymtomatic, a few doz young, healthy being hospitalized is a TINY fraction of that. Heck, even a few hundred would be a tiny fraction.

I’ll try and look that up but it’s significant enough in Spain and Italy to have to necessitate really tough choices.

My wife and 93hen have compromised immune systems. Are you ready to make that decision so that your 401k suffers less of a hit?

[Gil Dobie]

My main reason to respond in this thread was about what the Lt Governor of Texas, Patrick said. Sacrifice the grandparents for the children, just let this thing go. I have no problem with the gradual return to normalcy. 89Hen thinks its just like the flu, BDK and Pwns appeared to agree, let this thing go to restore the economy, sacrifice the old people. Then BDK came back with the gradual return to normalcy.

Link on the TX Lt Gov saying "Sacrifice the grandparents for the children, just let this thing go."
I never said "let this thing go to restore the economy, sacrifice the old people." (which would be a do nothing extreme). You are getting CDS..

Quotes from the Tucker Carlson interview. CBS News Link

Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is facing a backlash after saying he'd be willing to die to restart the American economy amid the coronavirus pandemic — and he thinks other grandparents would, as well. Patrick said on Fox News Monday night that he's spoken to "hundreds of people" who felt similarly — "that we can't lose our country."

"No one reached out to me and said, 'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival, in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?"' Patrick remarked. "And if that's the exchange, I'm all in."

In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Patrick claimed other grandparents like him would be willing to make the same sacrifice.

[89Hen]

First you said the flu kills 50 people a day. I said that can't be correct because we've had years where the flu kills 61,000 in a flu season.

Instead of addressing that, you went on to say that at 140 per day Covid would kill over 170,000 people.

That's where I've had a problem with what your posting. Again, I'm not joking that I hope you're OK. It's not like you to be so rattled.

I said COVID-19, kills at a higher rate. Using your flu percentages, I used the COVID-19 rates per the same number of people affected by the flu. This would happen if there was no mitigation.

What was it you said... stop making stuff up? They don't know the actual rate. I can't tell you the number of people I've talked to that wondered if they already had it.

And you still haven't justified your statement of the flu killing 50 per day when we've had years with 61,000 deaths.

[Gil Dobie]

I said COVID-19, kills at a higher rate. Using your flu percentages, I used the COVID-19 rates per the same number of people affected by the flu. This would happen if there was no mitigation.

What was it you said... stop making stuff up? They don't know the actual rate. I can't tell you the number of people I've talked to that wondered if they already had it.

And you still haven't justified your statement of the flu killing 50 per day when we've had years with 61,000 deaths.

Yawn

[89Hen]

What was it you said... stop making stuff up? They don't know the actual rate. I can't tell you the number of people I've talked to that wondered if they already had it.

And you still haven't justified your statement of the flu killing 50 per day when we've had years with 61,000 deaths.

Yawn

Again, very unlike you.

And you still haven't justified your statement of the flu killing 50 per day when we've had years with 61,000 deaths.

[Gil Dobie]

[89Hen]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ss+News%29

The United Nations agency said on March 18 that, based on different scenarios for the impact of the pandemic on global economic growth, estimated the global ranks of jobless would rise by between 5.3 million and 24.7 million.

However, Sangheon Lee, director of the ILO’s employment policy department, told Reuters in Geneva on Thursday that the scale of temporary unemployment, lay-offs and the number of unemployment benefit claims were far higher than first expected.

[kalm]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ss+News%29

The United Nations agency said on March 18 that, based on different scenarios for the impact of the pandemic on global economic growth, estimated the global ranks of jobless would rise by between 5.3 million and 24.7 million.

However, Sangheon Lee, director of the ILO’s employment policy department, told Reuters in Geneva on Thursday that the scale of temporary unemployment, lay-offs and the number of unemployment benefit claims were far higher than first expected.

There’s a very good chance we won’t be out of stay at home orders until summer. The best weapons for returning to some sense of normal are hammering it now and massive financial aid. Regardless, will be years of financial consequences and economic restructuring.

[GannonFan]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ss+News%29

The United Nations agency said on March 18 that, based on different scenarios for the impact of the pandemic on global economic growth, estimated the global ranks of jobless would rise by between 5.3 million and 24.7 million.

However, Sangheon Lee, director of the ILO’s employment policy department, told Reuters in Geneva on Thursday that the scale of temporary unemployment, lay-offs and the number of unemployment benefit claims were far higher than first expected.

I'd like to have the job where I can make an estimate of somewhere between 5 million and 24 million and have that be a reasonable conclusion to draw. I mean, what are the odds he's wrong with that kind of range?