Coronavirus COVID-19

[HI54UNI]

that's it.

You're dead.

Nice knowing you.

Same day test yesterday. Negative.

But this goes to show the delicate balance between civil liberties and protecting people and stopping the spread. I was in my office for 15 minutes last Friday. They called all employees (I'm one of only four "employees" because all my realtors are 1099 independent contractors) who were in Monday through Friday last week to let us know somebody who was in the office had been in contact with somebody who had Covid. They couldn't tell me who it was, if they were in on Friday, if they were in my section of office (we have three separate spaces) or if that person even tested positive. So what good was telling me at all? Just to make me nervous or force me to get a test and quarantine when I really didn't need to? The inconsistent messaging and methodology around this is just terrible.

That's dumb. That's considered secondary exposure until the exposed person is confirmed as positive. Under these rules my entire family would have been quarantined for the last year because my wife has been exposed almost daily at work.

[SDHornet]

We’re those all government rules?

You're just messing with me now on grammar? No. They are company policy. But that's really irrelevant, the "rules" are just dumb. HR should at least be able to tell me if that person was in the office at the same time as I was.

When we have notices go out, it at least says what day the infected person was in on. It's really not a hard thing for HR to provide to people who may have been exposed.

[Gil Dobie]

Our offices are rumored to open in early July. Everyone is pretty much still working from home.

[SDHornet]

Our offices are rumored to open in early July. Everyone is pretty much still working from home.

We're going back to 50% starting in June. My wife's office is reducing office time. Nothing here in CA makes sense.

[BDKJMU]

MSM has pedaled a narrative that Miami Beach issued a state of emergency due to the Covid. Wrong- this is why Miami issued a state of emergency (and its not due to "Spring Break" either, unless you can call non college students Spring Breakers..It has nothing to do with the China Virus..As numerous examples in the tweet thread show..

[89Hen]

$2000 at a Red Lobster?

[SeattleGriz]

Our offices are rumored to open in early July. Everyone is pretty much still working from home.

We're going back to 50% starting in June. My wife's office is reducing office time. Nothing here in CA makes sense.

Our school district is finally starting to bring kids back. My youngest will attend two hours on Thursdays for the next two weeks as we transition, then it's two days a week.

The two oldest like attending school from bed so will stay virtual the rest of the year.

[BDKJMU]

$2000 at a Red Lobster?

I see what you did there..
3 years in a row with the same element..I believe its been the same week of this so called "Spring Break".

Seems to be 2 options if you're a restaurant
-Insist on any parties opening a tab before any drinks & food delivered. No credit card, then no drinks or food.
-Or close for the week, or at least nights for the week.. That would seem to be preferable to having numerous unpaid tabs every night, and having thousands more in damage to your restaurant..

[SeattleGriz]

Recent CDC study shows wearing masks only reduced cases and deaths at MOST 2%, but doesn't account for these other factors.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm

They measured outcomes in terms of increases in rates of growth in cases and deaths, not in terms of total numbers of cases and deaths. Here is how it's described:

The daily growth rate was defined as the difference between the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on a given day and the natural log of cumulative cases or deaths on the previous day, multiplied by 100.

EDIT: Until I get back to this I'll just say I have to redo some math below because of the word "cummulative." I'll come back and update later. But it won't change the bottom line.

As an example of what they are talking about, take the finding that case growth rate was reduced by 1.8 percentage points 81 to 100 days after mask mandate implementation. For illustration, lets say you are at 100 cases on one day. The natural log of 100 is 4.605170186. So lets say there are 110 cases the next day. The natural log of 110 is 4.700480366. The percent growth as defined by the authors is about 2%. In 10 days, the daily cases would be about 284.

Now lets' say the growth rate is reduced by 1.8 percentage points as indicated in the scenario for 81 to 100 days after mask mandate. Now the daily growth rate is 0.2%. Go through all the natural log stuff again. Now, in 10 days, the daily cases would be about 113. So the rate in terms of number of cases is 173 lower at that point. And that's for that one day. As time goes on, the difference per day increases and the differences are additive. As time goes on, the number of total cases under the "no mask mandate" scenario becomes MUCH larger than the total number of cases under the "mask mandate" scenario.

The study does not support your apparent point of view at all. It strongly supports the idea that mask mandates are effective.

Nice rebuttal and apologies for not replying earlier. Klam had my ISP block the site because he was getting killed over the difference between an Immunologist and an Epidemiologist.

Anyway, this is going to be goalpost moving, and that is my fault for not being more clear on my original post, but what do you think of the limitations of the study that I posted, in addition to it doesn't appear to be a randomized control study?

That was really my point...was that they list all the factors they couldn't account for, but yet come up with a favorable result.

[kalm]

They measured outcomes in terms of increases in rates of growth in cases and deaths, not in terms of total numbers of cases and deaths. Here is how it's described:



EDIT: Until I get back to this I'll just say I have to redo some math below because of the word "cummulative." I'll come back and update later. But it won't change the bottom line.

As an example of what they are talking about, take the finding that case growth rate was reduced by 1.8 percentage points 81 to 100 days after mask mandate implementation. For illustration, lets say you are at 100 cases on one day. The natural log of 100 is 4.605170186. So lets say there are 110 cases the next day. The natural log of 110 is 4.700480366. The percent growth as defined by the authors is about 2%. In 10 days, the daily cases would be about 284.

Now lets' say the growth rate is reduced by 1.8 percentage points as indicated in the scenario for 81 to 100 days after mask mandate. Now the daily growth rate is 0.2%. Go through all the natural log stuff again. Now, in 10 days, the daily cases would be about 113. So the rate in terms of number of cases is 173 lower at that point. And that's for that one day. As time goes on, the difference per day increases and the differences are additive. As time goes on, the number of total cases under the "no mask mandate" scenario becomes MUCH larger than the total number of cases under the "mask mandate" scenario.

The study does not support your apparent point of view at all. It strongly supports the idea that mask mandates are effective.

Nice rebuttal and apologies for not replying earlier. Klam had my ISP block the site because he was getting killed over the difference between an Immunologist and an Epidemiologist.

Anyway, this is going to be goalpost moving, and that is my fault for not being more clear on my original post, but what do you think of the limitations of the study that I posted, in addition to it doesn't appear to be a randomized control study?

That was really my point...was that they list all the factors they couldn't account for, but yet come up with a favorable result.

I was considering taking responsibility. Like Grizza, I know people.

[kalm]

England considering opening pubs back up for those with proof of a vaccine or recent negative test.

Not a bad idea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... XI84Ebvuj8

[SeattleGriz]

Nice rebuttal and apologies for not replying earlier. Klam had my ISP block the site because he was getting killed over the difference between an Immunologist and an Epidemiologist.

Anyway, this is going to be goalpost moving, and that is my fault for not being more clear on my original post, but what do you think of the limitations of the study that I posted, in addition to it doesn't appear to be a randomized control study?

That was really my point...was that they list all the factors they couldn't account for, but yet come up with a favorable result.

I was considering taking responsibility. Like Grizza, I know people.

[HI54UNI]

England considering opening pubs back up for those with proof of a vaccine or recent negative test.

Not a bad idea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... XI84Ebvuj8

Your papers please.

[AZGrizFan]

England considering opening pubs back up for those with proof of a vaccine or recent negative test.

Not a bad idea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... XI84Ebvuj8

Your papers please.

Exactly.

[kalm]

Your papers please.

Exactly.

Yeah...like an ID to get in? Or to vote?

[AZGrizFan]

Exactly.

Yeah...like an ID to get in? Or to vote?

More like the Jewish “papers”....required by the Nazi’s....

[kalm]

Yeah...like an ID to get in? Or to vote?

More like the Jewish “papers”....required by the Nazi’s....

Yeah...I knew you were working the Godwin’s Kaw angle.

How about MAST cards or food handlers permits?

[HI54UNI]

Bestest gov ever!

[HI54UNI]

[HI54UNI]

More like the Jewish “papers”....required by the Nazi’s....

Yeah...I knew you were working the Godwin’s Kaw angle.

How about MAST cards or food handlers permits?

How about cards for people who don't get a flu shot? Should we make anti-vaxxers for things like polio have to show papers as well?

[Ibanez]

$2000 at a Red Lobster?

I see what you did there..
3 years in a row with the same element..I believe its been the same week of this so called "Spring Break".

Seems to be 2 options if you're a restaurant
-Insist on any parties opening a tab before any drinks & food delivered. No credit card, then no drinks or food.
-Or close for the week, or at least nights for the week.. That would seem to be preferable to having numerous unpaid tabs every night, and having thousands more in damage to your restaurant..

Myrtle Beach used to do similar stuff during Black Biker Week (BBW). The crime stats alone warranted more police but the behavior compared to Biker Week was just a polar opposite. Sure, there was some trouble and bad "hombres" at Biker Week...but nothing like BBW

[kalm]

Yeah...I knew you were working the Godwin’s Kaw angle.

How about MAST cards or food handlers permits?

How about cards for people who don't get a flu shot? Should we make anti-vaxxers for things like polio have to show papers as well?

What’s next? Having to produce a ticket as proof you are allowed in the UNIdome?

If other conditions are like Covid and since going to a bar during a pandemic can increase community spread, sure. It’s not a big ask.

The Republican Party is a bigger threat to us becoming a police state right now.

[SeattleGriz]

How about cards for people who don't get a flu shot? Should we make anti-vaxxers for things like polio have to show papers as well?

What’s next? Having to produce a ticket as proof you are allowed in the UNIdome?

If other conditions are like Covid and since going to a bar during a pandemic can increase community spread, sure. It’s not a big ask.

The Republican Party is a bigger threat to us becoming a police state right now.

Don't know how accurate the article I read was, but it was saying that under Emergency Use Authorization, by law, you cannot force anyone to get the vaccine. They have no idea at this point if there will be unforeseen complications. I doubt there will be, but requiring someone to take a vaccine authorized under EUA seems a bit crazy.

[kalm]

What’s next? Having to produce a ticket as proof you are allowed in the UNIdome?

If other conditions are like Covid and since going to a bar during a pandemic can increase community spread, sure. It’s not a big ask.

The Republican Party is a bigger threat to us becoming a police state right now.

Don't know how accurate the article I read was, but it was saying that under Emergency Use Authorization, by law, you cannot force anyone to get the vaccine. They have no idea at this point if there will be unforeseen complications. I doubt there will be, but requiring someone to take a vaccine authorized under EUA seems a bit crazy.

No one is suggesting that here. You’d just have to watch your vaccinated friends enjoy their pints from the outside until the case counts are low enough.

[GannonFan]

I don't understand the details in this one. Was everyone there, the politicians and the reporters, all vaccinated, or was it a mix of some vaccinated and some not?