crime is definitely a good one to exploit donk weakness on a local level. The obvious difference for abortion vs. the rest is the recent changes and whether it mobilizes new and younger voters. There are signs that it is.
DeSantis' stunt brought immigration to the forefront and bumped abortion to below the fold. Crime statistics for Donk run cities are so much of a dumpster fire that even pro-reform Donks are trying to distance themselves from their past statements. Crime is going to hurt Donks at all levels.
The winds are definitely shifting, how much is going to be the question but they are going in the Republicans favor.
Right now, among likely voters, the close races that Dems were ahead by a few points have tightened up to a coin flip or a one point R advantage. What that translates into on election day (some states have started early voting already) remains to be seen.
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
DeSantis' stunt brought immigration to the forefront and bumped abortion to below the fold. Crime statistics for Donk run cities are so much of a dumpster fire that even pro-reform Donks are trying to distance themselves from their past statements. Crime is going to hurt Donks at all levels.
The winds are definitely shifting, how much is going to be the question but they are going in the Republicans favor.
Right now, among likely voters, the close races that Dems were ahead by a few points have tightened up to a coin flip or a one point R advantage. What that translates into on election day (some states have started early voting already) remains to be seen.
Unfortunately some of the other races the R’s thought were locks have tightened up the OTHER way….which I think is a natural tendency the closer we get to Election Day.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
The winds are definitely shifting, how much is going to be the question but they are going in the Republicans favor.
Right now, among likely voters, the close races that Dems were ahead by a few points have tightened up to a coin flip or a one point R advantage. What that translates into on election day (some states have started early voting already) remains to be seen.
Unfortunately some of the other races the R’s thought were locks have tightened up the OTHER way….which I think is a natural tendency the closer we get to Election Day.
Some of the house ones have gone that way. I had in mind a few of the Senate races when I typed the above.
If I was going to make a prediction, the R's take the house by a slight margin (about what the D's have now) and win the Senate by 1.
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
Unfortunately some of the other races the R’s thought were locks have tightened up the OTHER way….which I think is a natural tendency the closer we get to Election Day.
Some of the house ones have gone that way. I had in mind a few of the Senate races when I typed the above.
If I was going to make a prediction, the R's take the house by a slight margin (about what the D's have now) and win the Senate by 1.
That’s the prediction I made a month or 2 ago. Conks flip 2:
-Laxalt beats Cortez Matso. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -7392.html
-Walker beats Warnock (in large part because of Kemps coatails- He is going to beat Abrams by close to double digits.
Even if Fetterman wins PA, Conks hold all their other seats.
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AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:47 am
I don’t think R’s win any race that’s close. Because. Well….. take that for what it’s worth.
The pessimist in me says you are right.
“The best of all things is to learn. Money can be lost or stolen, health and strength may fail, but what you have committed to your mind is yours forever.” – Louis L’Amour
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” - G. Michael Hopf
"I am neither especially clever nor especially gifted. I am only very, very curious.” – Albert Einstein
Whover it was that said: "A conservative is a liberal who has been mugged. A liberal is a conservative who has been arrested" sure knew their stuff.
Wasn't that long ago right here that it was all about how the cops should just be turned loose to mow 'em down at BLM protests for dizrespekin our veterans and taking a knee on the flag an shit...
crime is definitely a good one to exploit donk weakness on a local level. The obvious difference for abortion vs. the rest is the recent changes and whether it mobilizes new and younger voters. There are signs that it is.
DeSantis' stunt brought immigration to the forefront and bumped abortion to below the fold. Crime statistics for Donk run cities are so much of a dumpster fire that even pro-reform Donks are trying to distance themselves from their past statements. Crime is going to hurt Donks at all levels.
High crime also doesn't help with Brown and black folk as it is largely our neighborhoods that bear the brunt of failed donk immigration/soft on crime policies.
It is with women and you incels are the only ones that don't get it - even women who are opposed to abortion aren't willing to give up the option. They all know somebody who screwed up and needs that option available
I think it is fair to say that abortion is an issue that will hurt Conks in November. The economy, crime, immigration, etc. are issues that will hurt Donks. How they are prioritized will vary by the individual but there will be attempts by candidates from both parties to influence them. DeSantis' move brought a lot of attention to immigration and took it away from abortion. Donks will attempt to switch it back.
and the individual's gender
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
Unfortunately some of the other races the R’s thought were locks have tightened up the OTHER way….which I think is a natural tendency the closer we get to Election Day.
Some of the house ones have gone that way. I had in mind a few of the Senate races when I typed the above.
If I was going to make a prediction, the R's take the house by a slight margin (about what the D's have now) and win the Senate by 1.
A prediction that doesn't match the optimism of your post 10 minutes before this one about the winds definitely blowing in the Republicans favor....
The average loss in the HoR by the President's party in a mid-term is 37, which would swing the current 222-D/212-R slight margin to a 185-D/249-R not-so-slight margin.
Less than that would be underperforming, which apparently we both agree will happen in the House.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
If you don't control your body, you're just livestock.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
Some of the house ones have gone that way. I had in mind a few of the Senate races when I typed the above.
If I was going to make a prediction, the R's take the house by a slight margin (about what the D's have now) and win the Senate by 1.
A prediction that doesn't match the optimism of your post 10 minutes before this one about the winds definitely blowing in the Republicans favor....
The average loss in the HoR by the President's party in a mid-term is 37, which would swing the current 222-D/212-R slight margin to a 185-D/249-R not-so-slight margin.
Less than that would be underperforming, which apparently we both agree will happen in the House.
The only thing I'd say about that is that we need to recalibrate what it even possible in the House today. 5-10 years ago, there were easily 80-90 competitive districts in the House, where you could potentially see either party win the seat. Following a lot of gerrymandering in both GOP and Dem held states, that number is down to about 30 competitive seats. Even if a party won all 30 of those competitive seats in an election, that would be considered as "underperforming" compared to past elections. Through gerrymandering, blue states have gotten bluer, red states have gotten redder, and there's fewer and fewer genuine "purple" seats out there to flip.
A prediction that doesn't match the optimism of your post 10 minutes before this one about the winds definitely blowing in the Republicans favor....
The average loss in the HoR by the President's party in a mid-term is 37, which would swing the current 222-D/212-R slight margin to a 185-D/249-R not-so-slight margin.
Less than that would be underperforming, which apparently we both agree will happen in the House.
The only thing I'd say about that is that we need to recalibrate what it even possible in the House today. 5-10 years ago, there were easily 80-90 competitive districts in the House, where you could potentially see either party win the seat. Following a lot of gerrymandering in both GOP and Dem held states, that number is down to about 30 competitive seats. Even if a party won all 30 of those competitive seats in an election, that would be considered as "underperforming" compared to past elections. Through gerrymandering, blue states have gotten bluer, red states have gotten redder, and there's fewer and fewer genuine "purple" seats out there to flip.
good point.
although I think the vote in Kansas shows that to not be etched in stone
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
The only thing I'd say about that is that we need to recalibrate what it even possible in the House today. 5-10 years ago, there were easily 80-90 competitive districts in the House, where you could potentially see either party win the seat. Following a lot of gerrymandering in both GOP and Dem held states, that number is down to about 30 competitive seats. Even if a party won all 30 of those competitive seats in an election, that would be considered as "underperforming" compared to past elections. Through gerrymandering, blue states have gotten bluer, red states have gotten redder, and there's fewer and fewer genuine "purple" seats out there to flip.
good point.
although I think the vote in Kansas shows that to not be etched in stone
Agreed, but taking really Herculean type changes to flip doesn't necessarily mean they're competitive every two years either. Chaminade knocked off Ralph Sampson and #1 UVA back in the 80's, and have a handful of other wins in the Maui Tourney, but they're also 8-92 all time in their own home tournament. So yes, they can win, but at a winning percentage of 8%, they're hardly competitive.
AZGrizFan wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:47 am
I don’t think R’s win any race that’s close. Because. Well….. take that for what it’s worth.
Just say late night ballot dumps. We all know what coming. Conks need to up their "ballot harvesting" game if they ever want to win tight elections.
ain't no loser like a sore loser...
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
although I think the vote in Kansas shows that to not be etched in stone
Agreed, but taking really Herculean type changes to flip doesn't necessarily mean they're competitive every two years either. Chaminade knocked off Ralph Sampson and #1 UVA back in the 80's, and have a handful of other wins in the Maui Tourney, but they're also 8-92 all time in their own home tournament. So yes, they can win, but at a winning percentage of 8%, they're hardly competitive.
Upsets happen but I wouldn't rush to the conclusion that equating Chaminade and more than half of all registered voters is accurate either. The Evangelicals and the incels and the control-freak orcs in Congress don't understand that just because a woman is opposed to abortion doesn't mean she thinks it shouldn't be available; the number of serious scandals and revenge killings and shotgun weddings that have been avoided is incalculable
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
Agreed, but taking really Herculean type changes to flip doesn't necessarily mean they're competitive every two years either. Chaminade knocked off Ralph Sampson and #1 UVA back in the 80's, and have a handful of other wins in the Maui Tourney, but they're also 8-92 all time in their own home tournament. So yes, they can win, but at a winning percentage of 8%, they're hardly competitive.
Upsets happen but I wouldn't rush to the conclusion that equating Chaminade and more than half of all registered voters is accurate either. The Evangelicals and the incels and the control-freak orcs in Congress don't understand that just because a woman is opposed to abortion doesn't mean she thinks it shouldn't be available; the number of serious scandals and revenge killings and shotgun weddings that have been avoided is incalculable
Yeah, but abortion has never really been proven to be a substantial game changer. You might see an election here or there sway on it, and obviously the status quo has been impacted since post-Dobbs, but the electorate is still pretty split on it and tend not to vote on it, especially over something like the economy. The Dems may hold a seat here or there this time based on abortion, but certainly not a large groundswell. The Dems are still going to lose the House even with abortion strongly in their favor.
Upsets happen but I wouldn't rush to the conclusion that equating Chaminade and more than half of all registered voters is accurate either. The Evangelicals and the incels and the control-freak orcs in Congress don't understand that just because a woman is opposed to abortion doesn't mean she thinks it shouldn't be available; the number of serious scandals and revenge killings and shotgun weddings that have been avoided is incalculable
Yeah, but abortion has never really been proven to be a substantial game changer. You might see an election here or there sway on it, and obviously the status quo has been impacted since post-Dobbs, but the electorate is still pretty split on it and tend not to vote on it, especially over something like the economy. The Dems may hold a seat here or there this time based on abortion, but certainly not a large groundswell. The Dems are still going to lose the House even with abortion strongly in their favor.
I think that you're whistling past the graveyard with respect to the Kansas vote and that you're mistakenly equating opposition to abortion with desire to have the prodedure banned entirely and made illegal. The two things are not the same.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky
kalm wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:47 am
Something tells me Herschel Walker may not be a great representation of family values.
But he has behind him:
The GOP is going to have a hard time supporting him if it turns out Herschel's been banging white chicks.
The best way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of opinion but allow very lively debate within that spectrum - Noam Chomsky