Bidenflation and Shortage thread

[CAA Flagship]

?? Why does it need to drop? I thought every time you go to an old person's birthday party and they do one of those things were they go over the cost of milk, a house, and other things from 50 years ago, I never recall them being cheaper now than they were then. Prices aren't going to come back down, the horse is out of the barn on that. Biden doesn't need to worry about it, to him at his age it is transitory, he doesn't need to worry about 5 years or 10 years in the future. Unless inflation carries over to the afterlife.

Disinflation does happen. Inflation does eventually correct itself. You can look at any chart and see the rate of inflation goes up and down. That's the transitory nature, IMO, that Biden is referring to. So he isn't really wrong...but he isn't being accurate b/c as you pointed out, prices increase over the years. He's using one measurement over another to give warm fuzzies .

Maybe I don't fully understand inflation, deflation and disinflation but I can read a chart and see that rate of inflation is the highest it's been since the 80s.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

The question is, what happens to the price of products as the inflation rate lowers. Does it just stop rising as fast, or does it go lower? Does it take deflation to lower?

For example: Say a product goes from $30 to $38 in six months as inflation rises from 1.5% to 7%. If inflation drops to 2.5% in the next 6 months, what happens to the price of that product? Does it "only" go up to $39 or does it drop to $32?

I thought I knew this but now I wonder. Can't remember paying attention to prices during high inflation volatility in the past. I think I need to get a better understanding of how "inflation" is calculated.

[Ibanez]

Disinflation does happen. Inflation does eventually correct itself. You can look at any chart and see the rate of inflation goes up and down. That's the transitory nature, IMO, that Biden is referring to. So he isn't really wrong...but he isn't being accurate b/c as you pointed out, prices increase over the years. He's using one measurement over another to give warm fuzzies .

Maybe I don't fully understand inflation, deflation and disinflation but I can read a chart and see that rate of inflation is the highest it's been since the 80s.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

The question is, what happens to the price of products as the inflation rate lowers. Does it just stop rising as fast, or does it go lower? Does it take deflation to lower?

For example: Say a product goes from $30 to $38 in six months as inflation rises from 1.5% to 7%. If inflation drops to 2.5% in the next 6 months, what happens to the price of that product? Does it "only" go up to $39 or does it drop to $32?

I thought I knew this but now I wonder. Can't remember paying attention to prices during high inflation volatility in the past. I think I need to get a better understanding of how "inflation" is calculated.

Great questions and I don't know the answer. Using gas as an example, I remember the prices going up around the time of the Great Recession and dropping, but I don't recall if they settled lower to their pre-inflation cost or not.

[GannonFan]

Disinflation does happen. Inflation does eventually correct itself. You can look at any chart and see the rate of inflation goes up and down. That's the transitory nature, IMO, that Biden is referring to. So he isn't really wrong...but he isn't being accurate b/c as you pointed out, prices increase over the years. He's using one measurement over another to give warm fuzzies .

Maybe I don't fully understand inflation, deflation and disinflation but I can read a chart and see that rate of inflation is the highest it's been since the 80s.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... lation-cpi

The question is, what happens to the price of products as the inflation rate lowers. Does it just stop rising as fast, or does it go lower? Does it take deflation to lower?

For example: Say a product goes from $30 to $38 in six months as inflation rises from 1.5% to 7%. If inflation drops to 2.5% in the next 6 months, what happens to the price of that product? Does it "only" go up to $39 or does it drop to $32?

I thought I knew this but now I wonder. Can't remember paying attention to prices during high inflation volatility in the past. I think I need to get a better understanding of how "inflation" is calculated.

Trust me, deflation is not something we want in order to "correct" the "transitory" inflation we see right now. Ask Japan how deflation went for them. The better option is to fix the fiscal policy coming from the Fed and to have the federal government stop deciding every few months that we need to inject trillions of dollars into the market. We probably went overboard with "COVID relief" with two too many relief bills, and thankfully we didn't do the third with the disastrous Build Back Better crap. Politicians love a good crisis, because then they can pass stuff that wouldn't pass when people have the time to look it over.

[AZGrizFan]

The question is, what happens to the price of products as the inflation rate lowers. Does it just stop rising as fast, or does it go lower? Does it take deflation to lower?

For example: Say a product goes from $30 to $38 in six months as inflation rises from 1.5% to 7%. If inflation drops to 2.5% in the next 6 months, what happens to the price of that product? Does it "only" go up to $39 or does it drop to $32?

I thought I knew this but now I wonder. Can't remember paying attention to prices during high inflation volatility in the past. I think I need to get a better understanding of how "inflation" is calculated.

Great questions and I don't know the answer. Using gas as an example, I remember the prices going up around the time of the Great Recession and dropping, but I don't recall if they settled lower to their pre-inflation cost or not.

Great examples, and no that’s not “deflation”….prices fluctuate. But when something like heating oil is up 25.5% THIS YEAR alone, THAT’s inflation, and it’s not transitory.

Guess we’ll see when the supply chain disruptions allegedly are behind us and watch what happens to car prices/values.

[Ibanez]

Great questions and I don't know the answer. Using gas as an example, I remember the prices going up around the time of the Great Recession and dropping, but I don't recall if they settled lower to their pre-inflation cost or not.

Great examples, and no that’s not “deflation”….prices fluctuate. But when something like heating oil is up 25.5% THIS YEAR alone, THAT’s inflation, and it’s not transitory.

Guess we’ll see when the supply chain disruptions allegedly are behind us and watch what happens to car prices/values.

The wording used is wrong. Transitory is objective, IMO. 10 months isn't transitory. I'm just playing devil's advocate, btw.

One problem is that we’re not all on the same page about what “transitory” means. Merriam-Webster defines it as “of brief duration.” Oxford Languages calls it “not permanent.” There’s quite a gap between those two definitions! My lunch today was of brief duration. Our solar system is not permanent. One of those feels much more transitory to me than the other.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ion-anyway

[AZGrizFan]

Great examples, and no that’s not “deflation”….prices fluctuate. But when something like heating oil is up 25.5% THIS YEAR alone, THAT’s inflation, and it’s not transitory.

Guess we’ll see when the supply chain disruptions allegedly are behind us and watch what happens to car prices/values.

The wording used is wrong. Transitory is objective, IMO. 10 months isn't transitory. I'm just playing devil's advocate, btw.

One problem is that we’re not all on the same page about what “transitory” means. Merriam-Webster defines it as “of brief duration.” Oxford Languages calls it “not permanent.” There’s quite a gap between those two definitions! My lunch today was of brief duration. Our solar system is not permanent. One of those feels much more transitory to me than the other.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ion-anyway

The Fed used the language in an attempt to excuse their lack of action on the rate front (their only remaining lever) to affect/reduce the inflation rate. Basically implying that it would fix itself very quickly. After 3-5 months of inflation above 4% they should have acted. But their fear they would slow down the economy overrode their fear that inflation would take hold and escalate. They bet wrong, we’ve had 10 consecutive months over 4% and now FOUR consecutive months over 6%, and now they’re gonna have to hammer rates pretty fast to get it back under control.

BTW, I don’t believe I’ve EVER heard them use the term before.

[Ibanez]

The wording used is wrong. Transitory is objective, IMO. 10 months isn't transitory. I'm just playing devil's advocate, btw.


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ion-anyway

The Fed used the language in an attempt to excuse their lack of action on the rate front (their only remaining lever) to affect/reduce the inflation rate. Basically implying that it would fix itself very quickly. After 3-5 months of inflation above 4% they should have acted. But their fear they would slow down the economy overrode their fear that inflation would take hold and escalate. They bet wrong, we’ve had 10 consecutive months over 4% and now FOUR consecutive months over 6%, and now they’re gonna have to hammer rates pretty fast to get it back under control.

BTW, I don’t believe I’ve EVER heard them use the term before.

We use it in cyber security...occasionally. Most people just say "brief."

[Pwns]

Our political class doesn't really believe government spending is creating the inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclus ... 022-02-16/

[Ivytalk]

Our political class doesn't really believe government spending is creating the inflation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exclus ... 022-02-16/

Hey, but we gotta keep up with those Red Chinese!

[Winterborn]

From CNBC this morning:

A key inflation measure showed that prices rose at their fastest level in nearly 39 years, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, rose 5.2% from a year ago, slightly more than the 5.1% Dow Jones estimate. It was the highest level since April 1983.

Including food and energy prices, headline PCE was up 6.1%, the strongest gain since February 1982.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/pce-inf ... 2022-.html

[Ibanez]

From CNBC this morning:

A key inflation measure showed that prices rose at their fastest level in nearly 39 years, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, rose 5.2% from a year ago, slightly more than the 5.1% Dow Jones estimate. It was the highest level since April 1983.

Including food and energy prices, headline PCE was up 6.1%, the strongest gain since February 1982.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/pce-inf ... 2022-.html

That's lovely. Most Americans don't need the CPI to tell them this. I bought deck boards on Feb 2 for about $11...I bought more from the same store last weekend for about $2 more. Gas has gone up. Groceries were more expensive yesterday than they were earlier this month.

And it's only going to get worst.

[Winterborn]

From CNBC this morning:



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/25/pce-inf ... 2022-.html

That's lovely. Most Americans don't need the CPI to tell them this. I bought deck boards on Feb 2 for about $11...I bought more from the same store last weekend for about $2 more. Gas has gone up. Groceries were more expensive yesterday than they were earlier this month.

And it's only going to get worst.

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

[Ibanez]

That's lovely. Most Americans don't need the CPI to tell them this. I bought deck boards on Feb 2 for about $11...I bought more from the same store last weekend for about $2 more. Gas has gone up. Groceries were more expensive yesterday than they were earlier this month.

And it's only going to get worst.

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Fuck you!


worse vs worst always confuses me. It's my their/they're/there.

[Winterborn]

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Fuck you!


worse vs worst always confuses me. It's my their/they're/there.

I have issues with affect vs. effect.

And apparently: "could of" and "should of".

[UNI88]

That's lovely. Most Americans don't need the CPI to tell them this. I bought deck boards on Feb 2 for about $11...I bought more from the same store last weekend for about $2 more. Gas has gone up. Groceries were more expensive yesterday than they were earlier this month.

And it's only going to get worst.

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Why not wurst?

Then we have tasty sausages to look forward to.

[Ibanez]

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Why not wurst?

Then we have tasty sausages to look forward to.

This guy gets it!

[Winterborn]

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Why not wurst?

Then we have tasty sausages to look forward to.

Well Ibanez does have the nickname "Stickybuns" and I didn't want to get him excited.

[Ibanez]

Why not wurst?

Then we have tasty sausages to look forward to.

Well Ibanez does have the nickname "Stickybuns" and I didn't want to get him excited.

You had to bring that up?

[AZGrizFan]

Fuck you!


worse vs worst always confuses me. It's my their/they're/there.

I have issues with affect vs. effect.

And apparently: "could of" and "should of".

That’s because it’s “could have”….

[89Hen]

Fuck you!


worse vs worst always confuses me. It's my their/they're/there.

I have issues with affect vs. effect.

And apparently: "could of" and "should of".

Intact - in tact.

[houndawg]

That's lovely. Most Americans don't need the CPI to tell them this. I bought deck boards on Feb 2 for about $11...I bought more from the same store last weekend for about $2 more. Gas has gone up. Groceries were more expensive yesterday than they were earlier this month.

And it's only going to get worst.

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Must be different Amish than the ones around here.

[Winterborn]

*worse

And I agree. Not looking forward to the amount it will cost me to do the home improvements I want this year. Good news is when I want to teardown and re-do the garage, I have a contact through the Amish for cheap labor and lumber (relatively speaking).

Must be different Amish than the ones around here.

We have the traditional ones around here. None of that pandering to tourist stuff.

[CAA Flagship]

Ha. It just hit me. When Biden says that inflation will begin to go down soon, it's because it is a 1 year look back. So with each month going forward, we get deeper into the Bidenomics as a comparison.

[Winterborn]

Ha. It just hit me. When Biden says that inflation will begin to go down soon, it's because it is a 1 year look back. So with each month going forward, we get deeper into the Bidenomics as a comparison.

Marketing.

[BDKJMU]

Feb 2021’-Feb 22’. Brandon’s 1st 12 months:
7.9%.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/con ... y-2022.amp