2022 Elections Thread

[Winterborn]

WB has rendered JSO speechless.

Until the edit it was the most concise post he had ever made.

[Winterborn]

Interesting odds/bets that a couple of sites have related to the election outcome. Both sites have the odds of Republican control of the Senate around mid to upper 60% and Republican House control around upper 80's to 90%. I can see where there would be a issue with relying on them as they are pretty much based on the sentiment of who is placing the bets and the outcome they would like to play out, but still it is an interesting way to look at what is happening from a different perspective.

The two sites are:

https://www.predictit.org/

http://electionbettingodds.com/

[kalm]

Interesting odds/bets that a couple of sites have related to the election outcome. Both sites have the odds of Republican control of the Senate around mid to upper 60% and Republican House control around upper 80's to 90%. I can see where there would be a issue with relying on them as they are pretty much based on the sentiment of who is placing the bets and the outcome they would like to play out, but still it is an interesting way to look at what is happening from a different perspective.

The two sites are:

https://www.predictit.org/

http://electionbettingodds.com/

I’ll take the Dems +10.5 and +80.5.

[Winterborn]

Interesting odds/bets that a couple of sites have related to the election outcome. Both sites have the odds of Republican control of the Senate around mid to upper 60% and Republican House control around upper 80's to 90%. I can see where there would be a issue with relying on them as they are pretty much based on the sentiment of who is placing the bets and the outcome they would like to play out, but still it is an interesting way to look at what is happening from a different perspective.

The two sites are:

https://www.predictit.org/

http://electionbettingodds.com/

I’ll take the Dems +10.5 and +80.5.

Well I am going to refrain from betting as I have lost just about every bet I have ever placed. Placing a bet that I would loose my bet, would be as sure a thing as one could ask for.

[BDKJMU]

Fetterman's team applauded his performance following the debate and emphasized the fact that the candidate was still recovering from his stroke.

"We are thrilled with John's performance," Fetterman's communications director Joe Calvello said in a statement. "He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he's still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors. John won countless exchanges, counter-punched aggressively, and pushed back on Oz's cruelty and attacks."

1st of all this Cavello fellow will probably never have another job in politics again for committong political malpractice by allowing his candidate who can’t complete a sentence to debate to begin begin with. And then to claim you are thrilled with his performance shows you how much of an idiot Baghdad Bob Cavello is. When you played a horrendous game, you got to admit you played a horrendous game.

[Winterborn]

Fetterman's team applauded his performance following the debate and emphasized the fact that the candidate was still recovering from his stroke.

"We are thrilled with John's performance," Fetterman's communications director Joe Calvello said in a statement. "He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he's still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors. John won countless exchanges, counter-punched aggressively, and pushed back on Oz's cruelty and attacks."

1st of all this Cavello fellow will probably never have another job in politics again for committong political malpractice by allowing his candidate who can’t complete a to debate to begin begin with. And then to claim you are thrilled with his performance shows you how much of an idiot Baghdad Bob Cavello is. When you played a horrendous game, you got to admit you played a horrendous game.

I don't know about that. His response shows what a fine spin doctor he is and there will always be a politician in need of a master of spin.

[kalm]

Fetterman's team applauded his performance following the debate and emphasized the fact that the candidate was still recovering from his stroke.

"We are thrilled with John's performance," Fetterman's communications director Joe Calvello said in a statement. "He did remarkably well tonight – especially when you consider that he's still recovering from a stroke and was working off of delayed captions filled with errors. John won countless exchanges, counter-punched aggressively, and pushed back on Oz's cruelty and attacks."

1st of all this Cavello fellow will probably never have another job in politics again for committong political malpractice by allowing his candidate who can’t complete a to debate to begin begin with. And then to claim you are thrilled with his performance shows you how much of an idiot Baghdad Bob Cavello is. When you played a horrendous game, you got to admit you played a horrendous game.

Complete a ……?

[GannonFan]

1st of all this Cavello fellow will probably never have another job in politics again for committong political malpractice by allowing his candidate who can’t complete a to debate to begin begin with. And then to claim you are thrilled with his performance shows you how much of an idiot Baghdad Bob Cavello is. When you played a horrendous game, you got to admit you played a horrendous game.

Complete a ……?

It was either a very clever funny or a very ironic omission.

[GannonFan]

Stumbling bumbling…

Stumblers and bumblers unite!

There are plenty of people out there who don't want to vote for either of those guys.

[kalm]

I don’t like Schumer but this is good. Especially the end.

[houndawg]

its been within the margin for a while

Fetterman seems like a guy that got kicked upstairs from the factory floor. Dr. Oz seems like a guy that would be pushing quack remedies on Oprah.

Eh, back in the summer and early September this race was all Fetterman's. You didn't see ads from Oz and all the talk was how many houses Oz had outside of the state and what a charcuterie board was. Since then, though, you see ads from both on pretty much any platform you're on (been watching a lot of Hulu lately and every commercial is these two guys) as well as the baseball playoffs. And Oz has certainly diminished Fetterman's lead as the issues (economy, crime, etc) have gravitated to what Oz is better in. And Fetterman's inability to be articulate, whether from the stroke or just from his natural self, is becoming more and more of a problem. It's hard to vote for a guy who looks like he'll have trouble just communicating with others. And Fetterman's image has taken a hit - at first glance he does look like a regular joe, but everyone knows his story now - rich kid, underachiever through school, played college ball at a tiny D3 school of no note, and hasn't really had a job his father wasn't supporting him in through the first 50 years of his life. He didn't accomplish much of anything in Braddock and being a Lt Governor is pretty much a nothing position in PA government. And on top of it even before the stroke he wasn't much of a uniter - he did things he wanted to do whether anyone came along with him - that's not a great mentality to have going into a Senate where you're going to have to talk to and compromise with people - even inside your own party.

Neither candidate is ideal, but there's certainly a significant shift away from Fetterman at this point. Just telling you how it seems inside the state right now.

Oh, and for reference, Silver's 538 site had Fetterman with an 83% chance to win this as recent as 9/24, and winning with a 7% margin, which is huge in this state. Now, just a month later, it's down to a 59% chance (last night's debate not factored in yet) with the margin being about 1%. It went from a slam dunk to a possible loss in just 30 days.

He ain't much to write home about but neither Dr. Quack

[BDKJMU]

its been within the margin for a while

Fetterman seems like a guy that got kicked upstairs from the factory floor. Dr. Oz seems like a guy that would be pushing quack remedies on Oprah.

Eh, back in the summer and early September this race was all Fetterman's. You didn't see ads from Oz and all the talk was how many houses Oz had outside of the state and what a charcuterie board was. Since then, though, you see ads from both on pretty much any platform you're on (been watching a lot of Hulu lately and every commercial is these two guys) as well as the baseball playoffs. And Oz has certainly diminished Fetterman's lead as the issues (economy, crime, etc) have gravitated to what Oz is better in. And Fetterman's inability to be articulate, whether from the stroke or just from his natural self, is becoming more and more of a problem. It's hard to vote for a guy who looks like he'll have trouble just communicating with others. And Fetterman's image has taken a hit - at first glance he does look like a regular joe, but everyone knows his story now - rich kid, underachiever through school, played college ball at a tiny D3 school of no note, and hasn't really had a job his father wasn't supporting him in through the first 50 years of his life. He didn't accomplish much of anything in Braddock and being a Lt Governor is pretty much a nothing position in PA government. And on top of it even before the stroke he wasn't much of a uniter - he did things he wanted to do whether anyone came along with him - that's not a great mentality to have going into a Senate where you're going to have to talk to and compromise with people - even inside your own party.

Neither candidate is ideal, but there's certainly a significant shift away from Fetterman at this point. Just telling you how it seems inside the state right now.

Oh, and for reference, Silver's 538 site had Fetterman with an 83% chance to win this as recent as 9/24, and winning with a 7% margin, which is huge in this state. Now, just a month later, it's down to a 59% chance (last night's debate not factored in yet) with the margin being about 1%. It went from a slam dunk to a possible loss in just 30 days.

Lol Nate Silver. He lost all credibility in 2016…

[GannonFan]

Eh, back in the summer and early September this race was all Fetterman's. You didn't see ads from Oz and all the talk was how many houses Oz had outside of the state and what a charcuterie board was. Since then, though, you see ads from both on pretty much any platform you're on (been watching a lot of Hulu lately and every commercial is these two guys) as well as the baseball playoffs. And Oz has certainly diminished Fetterman's lead as the issues (economy, crime, etc) have gravitated to what Oz is better in. And Fetterman's inability to be articulate, whether from the stroke or just from his natural self, is becoming more and more of a problem. It's hard to vote for a guy who looks like he'll have trouble just communicating with others. And Fetterman's image has taken a hit - at first glance he does look like a regular joe, but everyone knows his story now - rich kid, underachiever through school, played college ball at a tiny D3 school of no note, and hasn't really had a job his father wasn't supporting him in through the first 50 years of his life. He didn't accomplish much of anything in Braddock and being a Lt Governor is pretty much a nothing position in PA government. And on top of it even before the stroke he wasn't much of a uniter - he did things he wanted to do whether anyone came along with him - that's not a great mentality to have going into a Senate where you're going to have to talk to and compromise with people - even inside your own party.

Neither candidate is ideal, but there's certainly a significant shift away from Fetterman at this point. Just telling you how it seems inside the state right now.

Oh, and for reference, Silver's 538 site had Fetterman with an 83% chance to win this as recent as 9/24, and winning with a 7% margin, which is huge in this state. Now, just a month later, it's down to a 59% chance (last night's debate not factored in yet) with the margin being about 1%. It went from a slam dunk to a possible loss in just 30 days.

Lol Nate Silver. He lost all credibility in 2016…

Does that mean you lost your credibility in 2020...

[Winterborn]

Lol Nate Silver. He lost all credibility in 2016…

Does that mean you lost your credibility in 2020...

[BDKJMU]

Lol Nate Silver. He lost all credibility in 2016…

Does that mean you lost your credibility in 2020...

Lol um no. I’m not a professional pollster/prognosticator.

[JohnStOnge]

Lol Nate Silver. He lost all credibility in 2016…

Not at all. On election leave, 538 had 71.4% confidence that Clinton would win. As i wrote at the time, that is about equivalent to a college football team being an 8 point favorite. As it happens, the "upset" of Trump beating Clinton was about equivalent to the upset of Clemson beating Alabama in the early 2017 CFC game. An upset, yes. But nothing all THAT remarkable.

On 2016 election eve i posted on this board citing 538's forecast as evidence that it was not a done deal. She simply was not favored by a sufficient degree to say that.

I also said, before the 2020 election, that the 538 forecast had gotten at least CLOSE to the point where one could be confident Biden would win. That one, on election eve, had 89% confidence. As i noted on 2016 election eve, 95% confidence would be necessary for me to think of it as pretty much a done deal. But it was getting close.

If you want I can link the thread in which, on 2016 election eve, I said that the 538 forecast indicated Clinton beating Trump was not a done deal. But I've done that several times already. Trump winning was not a destruction of 538's credibility any more than Clemson beating Alabama a couple of months later was a destruction of the college football oddsmakers' credibility.

[JohnStOnge]

Now more on the inflation rate thing. I went ahead and projected what would happen with the year over year inflation rate as it is reported if the inflation rate during October 2022 through June 2023 works out to the resulting in the 2% annual rate the Fed targets. What you will see is that, in June 2023, the year over year rate that is widely reported would fall below 2%.

it looks likely that the Republicans will take over the House and very possibly the Senate as well. If that happens and an inflation scenario similar to the one I depict plays out, i have no doubt that people in general will perceive the decline as associated with the Republicans taking power. But it wouldn't be. The change would clearly have occurred between June and July, 2022; well before the Republicans will have taken over the Congress.

Another example of why I lament the fact that people vote based on what they perceive as happening with the economy at the time. One thing I'll always remember, because I was for George H. W. Bush at the time, is that people thought Bill Clinton ended a recession. But the recession actually ended in March 1991. That was almost 2 years before Clinton took office in January, 1993. I also don't think Bush was the reason for the recession to begin with. But that's how it goes. People perceive a direct cause and effect relationship between who is in power and what the economy is doing even though there isn't one. It is what it is.

Here's the table:



You can see that, if something like that scenario plays out, unacceptable inflation would have stopped between June and July, 2022. But that won't really show up in the year over year numbers that people see in a way that most people will notice until around early 2023 when the Republicans will presumably be taking power in at least the House.

Not that it's QUITE a done deal yet. As of now, according to 538, it's at 81% confidence that the Republicans will win the House. So they are favored by more than Clinton was over Trump on election eve 2016 but not by as much as Biden was over Trump on election even 2020.

[JohnStOnge]

Todd Rundgren is just a musician. Also he wasn't quite right when he said Liz Cheney isn't in the Republican Party. But I think he nailed the basic situation when I saw him interviewed this morning. Here's an excerpt:

So, I made a record about all the ways that people are dishonest with each other. i never thought that a political party would make that a Canon. You know...that that...essentially, the reason why Liz Cheney isn't in the Republican Party was because she refused to lie. in other words, to be a Republican means that you have to, first and foremost, be able to lie. And lie until you get cornered and then you never apologize for lying. You never admit that you lied. You just shut up at that point or go on to another lie.

It's true. Liz Cheney tells the truth, displays integrity, and seeks to hold people who SHOULD be held accountable accountable. And for displaying integrity she is a pariah in the Republican Party. It is just SO corrupt I know a lot of people feel the need to act like there is some symmetry whereby both major Parties are bad. And to a certain extent they both have their problems. But there is no symmetry right now. In today's context the Republican Party is WAY worse.

[UNI88]

Todd Rundgren is just a musician. Also he wasn't quite right when he said Liz Cheney isn't in the Republican Party. But I think he nailed the basic situation when I saw him interviewed this morning. Here's an excerpt:

So, I made a record about all the ways that people are dishonest with each other. i never thought that a political party would make that a Canon. You know...that that...essentially, the reason why Liz Cheney isn't in the Republican Party was because she refused to lie. in other words, to be a Republican means that you have to, first and foremost, be able to lie. And lie until you get cornered and then you never apologize for lying. You never admit that you lied. You just shut up at that point or go on to another lie.

It's true. Liz Cheney tells the truth, displays integrity, and seeks to hold people who SHOULD be held accountable accountable. And for displaying integrity she is a pariah in the Republican Party. It is just SO corrupt I know a lot of people feel the need to act like there is some symmetry whereby both major Parties are bad. And to a certain extent they both have their problems. But there is no symmetry right now. In today's context the Republican Party is WAY worse.

JSO, you're a lot like trump. You believe that if you say something, it makes it true.

The Republican Party is way worse on your part, the election was stolen among other things on trump's part.

[UNI88]

Rumor has it that Hershel Walker paid Fetterman to get an abortion ...

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[HI54UNI]

In Iowa pretty much the only thing Democrats talk about in their ads is abortion. That's all they have to run on. Republicans all talk about Biden, even for state offices that have nothing to do with the Federal government. Election day can't come soon enough.

[Winterborn]

In Iowa pretty much the only thing Democrats talk about in their ads is abortion. That's all they have to run on. Republicans all talk about Biden, even for state offices that have nothing to do with the Federal government. Election day can't come soon enough.

Agree. My Hulu account has been packed with them.

[kalm]

Rumor has it that Hershel Walker paid Fetterman to get an abortion ...

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Walker…literally the father of our country?

[Winterborn]

Rumor has it that Hershel Walker paid Fetterman to get an abortion ...

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Walker…literally the father of our country?

You are thinking of Johnny Walker.

[kalm]

Walker…literally the father of our country?

You are thinking of Johnny Walker.

You are thinking of Scotland.