The Ukraine Crisis

[houndawg]

We were not producing 1.5 million billion barrels per day - that's a stupid fucking number.

Yeah, that sentence was all jacked up. What I meant to say was:

End of 19’/beginning of 20’, before the pandemic hit, we were producing about 1.5 million billion bpd more than right now. And we’re post pandemic now

.

that's a lot.

[UNI88]

Lots of folks in this thread have no idea how commodity markets work.

Let 'em go. They're on a roll.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

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[AZGrizFan]

mark, you’re misreading the data. We aren’t 1,000 barrels per month less. We’re 1,000,000 barrels per month less. Production peaked In early 2020 at about 13,000,000 bbl/month, and was subsequently crushed by COVID. It never recovered above 11,500,000 until the last month where it’s jumped up just short of 12,000,000. But it’s still 1,000,000 barrels a month short of where it was when Trump was in office pre-COVID.

That's a stupid mistake on my part. It still doesn't change the basic fact that Production under the Biden Administration, since 2021, is above the first 2 years of Trump and isn't far off from 2020. And btw, production peaked in late 2019, not 2020. You average it out, we aren't really producing that much less. We are producing approximately 2% less than we did in the Trumps final 2 years. 2% less is really what's making the cost of gas skyrocket?

Avg daily barrel production
2017 - 9,355.75
2018 - 10,936.75
2019 - 12,286.25
2020 - 11,289.08
2021 - 11,174.50

And in the first two years of Trump’s administration we weren’t energy independent. Not sure what you’re trying to prove here? By Trump’s third year we were a net energy exporter. We never were before, and we haven’t been since Biden took over.

[Baldy]

Lots of folks in this thread have no idea how commodity markets work.

Let 'em go. They're on a roll.

[houndawg]

That's a stupid mistake on my part. It still doesn't change the basic fact that Production under the Biden Administration, since 2021, is above the first 2 years of Trump and isn't far off from 2020. And btw, production peaked in late 2019, not 2020. You average it out, we aren't really producing that much less. We are producing approximately 2% less than we did in the Trumps final 2 years. 2% less is really what's making the cost of gas skyrocket?

Avg daily barrel production
2017 - 9,355.75
2018 - 10,936.75
2019 - 12,286.25
2020 - 11,289.08
2021 - 11,174.50

And in the first two years of Trump’s administration we weren’t energy independent. Not sure what you’re trying to prove here? By Trump’s third year we were a net energy exporter. We never were before, and we haven’t been since Biden took over.

So we were a net exporter for one year and you're blaming Biden for the fact that we weren't a net energy exporter during his first year in office? Seriously?

[CID1990]

Putin has lost the chance to achieve his political objectives in Ukraine. No matter what happens now, he will not achieve them. That is what worries me - he can still weaken NATO.

Imagine a scenario where Putin is blaming NATO and the US for his quagmire (state media in Russia is already doing that) and he decides to test Biden’s claim that we will defend every inch of NATO soil. We have largely kept this thing contained to Ukraine but my sense is that it is just a case of this administration’s broken clock being right twice a day…. Putin my suspect (and may be right) that NATO might still be hesitant to engage Russia over, say, and attack on Moldova. It would be a risk for Putin but a calculated one. If Moldova is attacked in some way and NATO does not have a kinetic response, then what does that ultimately do to NATO?

It is possible that we may see why adding small, weak countries to NATO was always a mistake. I hope it doesn’t happen but Putin is losing in Ukraine and he is going to want to salvage a win somewhere.


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[houndawg]

Putin has lost the chance to achieve his political objectives in Ukraine. No matter what happens now, he will not achieve them. That is what worries me - he can still weaken NATO.

Imagine a scenario where Putin is blaming NATO and the US for his quagmire (state media in Russia is already doing that) and he decides to test Biden’s claim that we will defend every inch of NATO soil. We have largely kept this thing contained to Ukraine but my sense is that it is just a case of this administration’s broken clock being right twice a day…. Putin my suspect (and may be right) that NATO might still be hesitant to engage Russia over, say, and attack on Moldova. It would be a risk for Putin but a calculated one. If Moldova is attacked in some way and NATO does not have a kinetic response, then what does that ultimately do to NATO?

It is possible that we may see why adding small, weak countries to NATO was always a mistake. I hope it doesn’t happen but Putin is losing in Ukraine and he is going to want to salvage a win somewhere.


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Given the performance of the Russian military so far NATO would be crazy to not seize the opportunity and make it an ass-kicking that the Chinese will not soon forget.

[SeattleGriz]

Of the $13.6 billion we just gave Ukraine, how much of that winds back up into our politician's pockets?

[CID1990]

Putin has lost the chance to achieve his political objectives in Ukraine. No matter what happens now, he will not achieve them. That is what worries me - he can still weaken NATO.

Imagine a scenario where Putin is blaming NATO and the US for his quagmire (state media in Russia is already doing that) and he decides to test Biden’s claim that we will defend every inch of NATO soil. We have largely kept this thing contained to Ukraine but my sense is that it is just a case of this administration’s broken clock being right twice a day…. Putin my suspect (and may be right) that NATO might still be hesitant to engage Russia over, say, and attack on Moldova. It would be a risk for Putin but a calculated one. If Moldova is attacked in some way and NATO does not have a kinetic response, then what does that ultimately do to NATO?

It is possible that we may see why adding small, weak countries to NATO was always a mistake. I hope it doesn’t happen but Putin is losing in Ukraine and he is going to want to salvage a win somewhere.


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Given the performance of the Russian military so far NATO would be crazy to not seize the opportunity and make it an ass-kicking that the Chinese will not soon forget.

The Chinese are getting all the lesson they need seeing a well equipped superpower with a conscript army and no real experience getting its ass kicked by a much weaker neighbor it shares a border with. We don’t need a nuclear exchange with Russia, especially now that Russia is heading for a defeat.

China will already think twice about attempting a cross-strait adventure, for now


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[AZGrizFan]

And in the first two years of Trump’s administration we weren’t energy independent. Not sure what you’re trying to prove here? By Trump’s third year we were a net energy exporter. We never were before, and we haven’t been since Biden took over.

So we were a net exporter for one year and you're blaming Biden for the fact that we weren't a net energy exporter during his first year in office? Seriously?

No, I’m blaming Biden for policies and actions that have made us not a net exporter anymore. Like shutting down a pipeline. Stopping drilling. Shutting down leases. Etc., etc.

[AZGrizFan]

Putin has lost the chance to achieve his political objectives in Ukraine. No matter what happens now, he will not achieve them. That is what worries me - he can still weaken NATO.

Imagine a scenario where Putin is blaming NATO and the US for his quagmire (state media in Russia is already doing that) and he decides to test Biden’s claim that we will defend every inch of NATO soil. We have largely kept this thing contained to Ukraine but my sense is that it is just a case of this administration’s broken clock being right twice a day…. Putin my suspect (and may be right) that NATO might still be hesitant to engage Russia over, say, and attack on Moldova. It would be a risk for Putin but a calculated one. If Moldova is attacked in some way and NATO does not have a kinetic response, then what does that ultimately do to NATO?

It is possible that we may see why adding small, weak countries to NATO was always a mistake. I hope it doesn’t happen but Putin is losing in Ukraine and he is going to want to salvage a win somewhere.


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While I agree with the concept that adding small, weak countries to NATO was a mistake, I do believe NATO’s response would make any attempt by Putin in a true NATO country a futile one. And you’d have to buy into the “Putin is nuts” conspiracy to truly believe he’d want to go down as the guy who ended the world as we know it rather than lose in the Ukraine (or anywhere else, for that matter).

[Pwns]

If I'm Xi Jinping I'm feeling pretty good about the cards I hold right now. Russia being a bigger player in international gas and oil markets (thank you idiot Germans for shutting down your nuclear power) has complicated all of this, and that gets multiplied 1000-fold with a country that's a huge player in the global economy like China. Anything China does with Hong Kong we'll just shake our fingers at them, much like we do with the Uygur situation.

[SDHornet]

Of the $13.6 billion we just gave Ukraine, how much of that winds back up into our politician's pockets?

No shit. The pro-war sentiment from the politicians is largely just anger at the potential loss of the money laundering opportunity the Ukrainian corruption has offered them for all these years.

[SDHornet]

If I'm Xi Jinping I'm feeling pretty good about the cards I hold right now. Russia being a bigger player in international gas and oil markets (thank you idiot Germans for shutting down your nuclear power) has complicated all of this, and that gets multiplied 1000-fold with a country that's a huge player in the global economy like China. Anything China does with Hong Kong we'll just shake our fingers at them, much like we do with the Uygur situation.

Yeah the world isn't going to economically isolate China like they did Russia.

[AZGrizFan]

If I'm Xi Jinping I'm feeling pretty good about the cards I hold right now. Russia being a bigger player in international gas and oil markets (thank you idiot Germans for shutting down your nuclear power) has complicated all of this, and that gets multiplied 1000-fold with a country that's a huge player in the global economy like China. Anything China does with Hong Kong we'll just shake our fingers at them, much like we do with the Uygur situation.

Yeah the world isn't going to economically isolate China like they did Russia.

What products (of value/significance) does China provide that can’t be obtained elsewhere (or in our own country)?

[SDHornet]

Yeah the world isn't going to economically isolate China like they did Russia.

What products (of value/significance) does China provide that can’t be obtained elsewhere (or in our own country)?

Lots, otherwise we would have seen real condemnation over the Uyghurs, no?

[AZGrizFan]

What products (of value/significance) does China provide that can’t be obtained elsewhere (or in our own country)?

Lots, otherwise we would have seen real condemnation over the Uyghurs, no?

Well I know they provide lots of products, and lots of cheap products, but is there anything THEY provide we can’t get somewhere else? Or here at home, albeit at a more expensive price?

[SDHornet]

Lots, otherwise we would have seen real condemnation over the Uyghurs, no?

Well I know they provide lots of products, and lots of cheap products, but is there anything THEY provide we can’t get somewhere else? Or here at home, albeit at a more expensive price?

You mean people should incur higher costs in the name of "democracy"?

[CID1990]

Putin has lost the chance to achieve his political objectives in Ukraine. No matter what happens now, he will not achieve them. That is what worries me - he can still weaken NATO.

Imagine a scenario where Putin is blaming NATO and the US for his quagmire (state media in Russia is already doing that) and he decides to test Biden’s claim that we will defend every inch of NATO soil. We have largely kept this thing contained to Ukraine but my sense is that it is just a case of this administration’s broken clock being right twice a day…. Putin my suspect (and may be right) that NATO might still be hesitant to engage Russia over, say, and attack on Moldova. It would be a risk for Putin but a calculated one. If Moldova is attacked in some way and NATO does not have a kinetic response, then what does that ultimately do to NATO?

It is possible that we may see why adding small, weak countries to NATO was always a mistake. I hope it doesn’t happen but Putin is losing in Ukraine and he is going to want to salvage a win somewhere.


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While I agree with the concept that adding small, weak countries to NATO was a mistake, I do believe NATO’s response would make any attempt by Putin in a true NATO country a futile one. And you’d have to buy into the “Putin is nuts” conspiracy to truly believe he’d want to go down as the guy who ended the world as we know it rather than lose in the Ukraine (or anywhere else, for that matter).

Here’s the thing -

I do not believe NATO will honor the charter for countries like Moldova

I think NATO will respond in some peripheral way but there is a plurality of people who think Putin will ise nukes

I am one of them. This guy is not right AT ALL


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[AZGrizFan]

While I agree with the concept that adding small, weak countries to NATO was a mistake, I do believe NATO’s response would make any attempt by Putin in a true NATO country a futile one. And you’d have to buy into the “Putin is nuts” conspiracy to truly believe he’d want to go down as the guy who ended the world as we know it rather than lose in the Ukraine (or anywhere else, for that matter).

Here’s the thing -

I do not believe NATO will honor the charter for countries like Moldova

I think NATO will respond in some peripheral way but there is a plurality of people who think Putin will ise nukes

I am one of them. This guy is not right AT ALL


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Well if NATO starts being selective about which NATO countries it will defend, then NATO will no longer cease to exist very quickly, and then we WILL see WWIII. Because let’s be honest here….there’s only ONE NATO country that has the ability to defend itself, and that’s us. NATO is US and a bunch of countries only slightly better equipped than Moldova.

[AZGrizFan]

Well I know they provide lots of products, and lots of cheap products, but is there anything THEY provide we can’t get somewhere else? Or here at home, albeit at a more expensive price?

You mean people should incur higher costs in the name of "democracy"?

I’m saying is there anything they and they alone provide that we can’t live without?

[SDHornet]

You mean people should incur higher costs in the name of "democracy"?

I’m saying is there anything they and they alone provide that we can’t live without?

Everything they make for us is something we can live without...otherwise it wouldn't be there.

[CID1990]

Here’s the thing -

I do not believe NATO will honor the charter for countries like Moldova

I think NATO will respond in some peripheral way but there is a plurality of people who think Putin will ise nukes

I am one of them. This guy is not right AT ALL


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Well if NATO starts being selective about which NATO countries it will defend, then NATO will no longer cease to exist very quickly, and then we WILL see WWIII. Because let’s be honest here….there’s only ONE NATO country that has the ability to defend itself, and that’s us. NATO is US and a bunch of countries only slightly better equipped than Moldova.

That was my original point.

I think Putin may see a real opportunity to significantly damage NATO without actually being in military conflict with NATO, either than Moldova or Romania. It’s a long shot, but I’d give it 10:1 odds and that is a very uncomfortable probability


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[AZGrizFan]

Well if NATO starts being selective about which NATO countries it will defend, then NATO will no longer cease to exist very quickly, and then we WILL see WWIII. Because let’s be honest here….there’s only ONE NATO country that has the ability to defend itself, and that’s us. NATO is US and a bunch of countries only slightly better equipped than Moldova.

That was my original point.

I think Putin may see a real opportunity to significantly damage NATO without actually being in military conflict with NATO, either than Moldova or Romania. It’s a long shot, but I’d give it 10:1 odds and that is a very uncomfortable probability


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Well, I guess we can hope against hope that US officials at the very least understand THAT concept. If they get selective about which NATO countries they’re going to help defend, it’ll be every man/country for himself pretty fucking quick (which would be Putin’s wet dream).

Like it or not, we’re going to have to defend a NATO country if attacked. Anything short of that will lead to global chaos.

[BDKJMU]

Well if NATO starts being selective about which NATO countries it will defend, then NATO will no longer cease to exist very quickly, and then we WILL see WWIII. Because let’s be honest here….there’s only ONE NATO country that has the ability to defend itself, and that’s us. NATO is US and a bunch of countries only slightly better equipped than Moldova.

That was my original point.

I think Putin may see a real opportunity to significantly damage NATO without actually being in military conflict with NATO, either than Moldova or Romania. It’s a long shot, but I’d give it 10:1 odds and that is a very uncomfortable probability


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Moldova is a member of NATO?