2022 Elections Thread

[Winterborn]

I dig all of this!

Reminds me a bit of Camus.

I get what he is saying but I disagree with how he said it.

Personally I find life very fulfilling and full of all kinds of beauty, depth, and excitement. Evey day is a new adventure along the journey we call life. And an opportunity to learn something new.

[kalm]

I dig all of this!

Reminds me a bit of Camus.

I get what he is saying but I disagree with how he said it.

Personally I find life very fulfilling and full of all kinds of beauty, depth, and excitement. Evey day is a new adventure along the journey we call life. And an opportunity to learn something new.

Same here. I’m more of a Ralph Waldo Emerson guy than an existentialist but I do find the latter intriguing.

[Winterborn]

I get what he is saying but I disagree with how he said it.

Personally I find life very fulfilling and full of all kinds of beauty, depth, and excitement. Evey day is a new adventure along the journey we call life. And an opportunity to learn something new.

Same here. I’m more of a Ralph Waldo Emerson guy than an existentialist but I do find the latter intriguing.

I like most of Emmerson's stuff.

His descriptions of nature is beautiful in its simplicity. Ever read much Japanese poetry? Some of their authors have a similar way of writing.

[GannonFan]

I've found following Nate Silver's 538 predictions to be fascinating this cycle. The House has been rather static, showing a strong GOP probability for awhile now (gerrymandering on both sides has really eliminated many competitive districts). The Senate has been where it's at, though. Final prediction today had the GOP slightly favored, with odds to win the Senate now at 59%, up from 54% just two days ago. And from what I can see, it's all because he's completely flipped the Senate race in PA in one day - yesterday he had Fetterman winning at 54%, now he has Oz winning it at 57%, so basically an 11 point swing in just two days. Crazy stuff.

[kalm]

Same here. I’m more of a Ralph Waldo Emerson guy than an existentialist but I do find the latter intriguing.

I like most of Emmerson's stuff.

His descriptions of nature is beautiful in its simplicity. Ever read much Japanese poetry? Some of their authors have a similar way of writing.

I haven’t. Not a huge poetry fan but I’ll take a look if you have any recommendations.

Emerson is similar to the stoics as he seems to embrace virtue as a guiding principle.

[BDKJMU]

I've found following Nate Silver's 538 predictions to be fascinating this cycle. The House has been rather static, showing a strong GOP probability for awhile now (gerrymandering on both sides has really eliminated many competitive districts). The Senate has been where it's at, though. Final prediction today had the GOP slightly favored, with odds to win the Senate now at 59%, up from 54% just two days ago. And from what I can see, it's all because he's completely flipped the Senate race in PA in one day - yesterday he had Fetterman winning at 54%, now he has Oz winning it at 57%, so basically an 11 point swing in just two days. Crazy stuff.

The gambling markets have had Oz winnig (at 60 some percent chance) since the debate ended 2 weeks ago.

[GannonFan]

I like most of Emmerson's stuff.

His descriptions of nature is beautiful in its simplicity. Ever read much Japanese poetry? Some of their authors have a similar way of writing.

I haven’t. Not a huge poetry fan but I’ll take a look if you have any recommendations.

Emerson is similar to the stoics as he seems to embrace virtue as a guiding principle.

Always a fan of Walt Whitman, or as known in Dead Poets as Uncle Walt.

[Winterborn]

I like most of Emmerson's stuff.

His descriptions of nature is beautiful in its simplicity. Ever read much Japanese poetry? Some of their authors have a similar way of writing.

I haven’t. Not a huge poetry fan but I’ll take a look if you have any recommendations.

Emerson is similar to the stoics as he seems to embrace virtue as a guiding principle.

I will see what I have on my list once I get back home.

I am not ashamed to admit it but I thought poetry was weak and just not worth the time in my early years. Read Tennyson, Frost, and Kipling (among others) and I was hooked. The way the verses interplay and the "beat" (pentameter) appeals to my math dominated thought patterns. I love the interplay between the words to get a point or image across. Really started my love for language in general and how one can use it to both emphasize and hide particular thoughts and feelings (I like to think of it as verbal/written chess or fencing). It is great on long trips as I can read a stanza and stare out the plane window thinking about what the author was trying to convey. Poetry is a literature form that I never thought I would like, but now, doubt I could not have it in my reading répertoire.

Kipyling and Frost are two that I can pick up anytime and find something that speaks to me. Kiplying especially. Gunga Din, Recessional, and To the Unknown Goddess are three that I enjoy the most (IF is right up there as well but it is much more well known).

Tennyson was a master of the craft and his poem Ulysses is superb. And everybody knows his "Charge of the Light Brigade". Another one that popped into mind is Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelly. Which, to me, is one that has a good message for those of us that enjoy political discourse.

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

[GannonFan]

I haven’t. Not a huge poetry fan but I’ll take a look if you have any recommendations.

Emerson is similar to the stoics as he seems to embrace virtue as a guiding principle.

I will see what I have on my list once I get back home.

I am not ashamed to admit it but I thought poetry was weak and just not worth the time in my early years. Read Tennyson, Frost, and Kipling (among others) and I was hooked. The way the verses interplay and the "beat" (pentameter) appeals to my math dominated thought patterns. I love the interplay between the words to get a point or image across. Really started my love for language in general and how one can use it to both emphasize and hide particular thoughts and feelings (I like to think of it as verbal/written chess or fencing). It is great on long trips as I can read a stanza and stare out the plane window thinking about what the author was trying to convey. Poetry is a literature form that I never thought I would like, but now, doubt I could not have it in my reading répertoire.

Kipyling and Frost are two that I can pick up anytime and find something that speaks to me. Kiplying especially. Gunga Din, Recessional, and To the Unknown Goddess are three that I enjoy the most (IF is right up there as well but it is much more well known).

Tennyson was a master of the craft and his poem Ulysses is superb. And everybody knows his "Charge of the Light Brigade". Another one that popped into mind is Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelly. Which, to me, is one that has a good message for those of us that enjoy political discourse.

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

My kid named the iRobot we have "Ozymandias" because of that poem. I'm not sure how that relates to robotic devices but there you go.

[Winterborn]

I will see what I have on my list once I get back home.

I am not ashamed to admit it but I thought poetry was weak and just not worth the time in my early years. Read Tennyson, Frost, and Kipling (among others) and I was hooked. The way the verses interplay and the "beat" (pentameter) appeals to my math dominated thought patterns. I love the interplay between the words to get a point or image across. Really started my love for language in general and how one can use it to both emphasize and hide particular thoughts and feelings (I like to think of it as verbal/written chess or fencing). It is great on long trips as I can read a stanza and stare out the plane window thinking about what the author was trying to convey. Poetry is a literature form that I never thought I would like, but now, doubt I could not have it in my reading répertoire.

Kipyling and Frost are two that I can pick up anytime and find something that speaks to me. Kiplying especially. Gunga Din, Recessional, and To the Unknown Goddess are three that I enjoy the most (IF is right up there as well but it is much more well known).

Tennyson was a master of the craft and his poem Ulysses is superb. And everybody knows his "Charge of the Light Brigade". Another one that popped into mind is Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelly. Which, to me, is one that has a good message for those of us that enjoy political discourse.

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

My kid named the iRobot we have "Ozymandias" because of that poem. I'm not sure how that relates to robotic devices but there you go.

Well if one considers Asimov's three laws and/or a world without those laws or constraints on a AI. I can see where your kid is going with that name (hubris).

Which is some pretty deep thoughts for a kid.

[GannonFan]

My kid named the iRobot we have "Ozymandias" because of that poem. I'm not sure how that relates to robotic devices but there you go.

Well if one considers Asimov's three laws and/or a world without those laws or constraints on a AI. I can see where your kid is going with that name (hubris).

Which is some pretty deep thoughts for a kid.

He's my youngest and by far reads the most compared to the other two. With that said, I still think he just liked the name, but hey, you never know.

[kalm]

I haven’t. Not a huge poetry fan but I’ll take a look if you have any recommendations.

Emerson is similar to the stoics as he seems to embrace virtue as a guiding principle.

I will see what I have on my list once I get back home.

I am not ashamed to admit it but I thought poetry was weak and just not worth the time in my early years. Read Tennyson, Frost, and Kipling (among others) and I was hooked. The way the verses interplay and the "beat" (pentameter) appeals to my math dominated thought patterns. I love the interplay between the words to get a point or image across. Really started my love for language in general and how one can use it to both emphasize and hide particular thoughts and feelings (I like to think of it as verbal/written chess or fencing). It is great on long trips as I can read a stanza and stare out the plane window thinking about what the author was trying to convey. Poetry is a literature form that I never thought I would like, but now, doubt I could not have it in my reading répertoire.

Kipyling and Frost are two that I can pick up anytime and find something that speaks to me. Kiplying especially. Gunga Din, Recessional, and To the Unknown Goddess are three that I enjoy the most (IF is right up there as well but it is much more well known).

Tennyson was a master of the craft and his poem Ulysses is superb. And everybody knows his "Charge of the Light Brigade". Another one that popped into mind is Ozymandias by Percy Bysshe Shelly. Which, to me, is one that has a good message for those of us that enjoy political discourse.

I met a traveller from an antique land,
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed;
And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

I’ve seen that poem. Great stuff!

I need to read some Kipling. My mountain man uncle who taught me how to hunt, fly fish, and forage for wild mushrooms had Kipling’s entire works on his shelf.

[kalm]

And here’s my favorite…

[Skjellyfetti]

Shapiro acknowledged Rogan's analogy... and then raised it a level.

[GannonFan]

I'm curious if we're going to see a tidal wave in either direction again anytime soon. The big shifts back and forth, going back to at least 2010, have really done a good job of erasing swing districts and getting rid of moderates on either side of the aisle. I don't think there are even any Blue Dogs anymore, just like there aren't RINO's anymore - they've all been forced out. And the big swings we used to see would be, in part, fueled by these candidates being picked off as they were the low hanging fruit. But we had an election in 2020 where a party won the White House, won the Senate, and almost lost the House. And now in this election, the momentum in that House was finally finished and that party won control (just counting up the races where the GOP is leading, looks like a House majority with 220-225 or so). And if there was a big swing in the Senate, it would've been 1 seat, 2 if it was an absolute landslide.

Between each party now being super good at gerrymandering their strong states, really competitive districts in the House are done to about 30 from maybe 90 just 5 years ago. So a swing in that chamber won't be much more than that, and often less. The Senate is almost the same way. You almost have to wait for a seat to go vacant from a death or a retirement for it to possibly become competitive, and that's only if it's in a purple state, something we have less and less of. A vacancy in California or Alabama isn't going to flip. I'm not sure what can be done to change the balance, but for the foreseeable future I think we're going to have these elections where it comes down to a tiny sliver of competitive races.

[Skjellyfetti]

Another issue is that Congressional districts are just getting too big. The number of districts used to grow the with population, but they capped it in the early twentieth century. It takes more $$ to run a Congressional race than it would otherwise, limiting candidates and opposition. Congressmen and their staffs are overburdened and disconnected from their constituents. Would also improve the Presidential election process, imo. And, it's clearly what the founders intended.

[GannonFan]

Another issue is that Congressional districts are just getting too big. The number of districts used to grow the with population, but they capped it in the early twentieth century. It takes more $$ to run a Congressional race than it would otherwise, limiting candidates and opposition. Congressmen and their staffs are overburdened and disconnected from their constituents. Would also improve the Presidential election process, imo. And, it's clearly what the founders intended.

I was a bit surprised at the number of Congressional districts where incumbents ran unopposed - although, considering your point, why would anyone on an opposing party really bother to run in the first place if you had zero chance of winning? There aren't than many Eugene Debs and Lyndon LaRouche types out there anymore, just wanting to be bludgeons. Although if Beto runs a couple of more times he could get into that rarefied air.

[UNI88]

I think the red wave was definitely muted by trump's involvement in the election. Election deniers in general and candidates trump endorsed in particular did poorly. trump's appeal to moderate or independent voters has taken a hit, hopefully Republicans realize this and don't give him the 2024 nomination.

We need to put an end to gerrymandering. Computers can draw better maps than state legislatures or committees. Hopefully that will make races more competitive and reduce the influence of the extremist wings of both major parties.

I'm not sure I'm on board with smaller Congressional districts. The larger a legislative body is, the harder it is for rank-and-file legislators to be heard concentrating power with leadership. Plus it just costs more money (staff, travel, etc.). Washington needs to tighten it's belt not add a couple more notches.

[JohnStOnge]

I see Democrats celebrating doing better than expected. No. It still looks likely that the Republicans will at least control the House. And if the Republicans control even one chamber by even one vote, we are in for disfunctional government for at least two years.

It's very disturbing that a Party such as the Republican Party of this time can be relevant at all. It really calls the quality of the population of the United States into question. It's a crackpot Party that is totally divorced from reality in very dangerous ways. It wasn't always like that. But it is now. And the fact that a proportion of the People of the United States sufficient to even make them relevant much less sufficient to put them into control of even one House of Congress is very disconcerting.

[JohnStOnge]

just as an aside, tonight I looked at how States totally controlled by Republicans during the COVID thing have done with respect to death rates vs. those totally controlled by Democrats. By totally controlled I mean one party has the governorship and both legislative houses.

Not surprisingly, to me anyway, the average death rate (cases per million population) for States controlled by Republicans is 21% higher (3540 to 2916) than it is for States controlled by Democrats. And it gets more disparate when one controls for population density and %population >65.

When you control for those things you get a complex situation where the Republican controlled States look worse as %>65 increases. If you hold population density constant and set %>65 at the lowest among the States (11.7%), the Republican controlled States rate is 24% higher (3371 to 2710). if you hold population density constant and set %>65 constant at the highest among States (21.8%), the Republican controlled States rate is 45% higher (3941 to 2710).

Completely consistent with the idea that the Republican Party has become the Party of Stupid. Anti truth. Anti science. Out of touch with reality. Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people who didn't have to have died from COVID-19 due to the stupidity of the Republican Party. But we still have them being a factor nationally. It's just really sad.

[kalm]

I see Democrats celebrating doing better than expected. No. It still looks likely that the Republicans will at least control the House. And if the Republicans control even one chamber by even one vote, we are in for disfunctional government for at least two years.

It's very disturbing that a Party such as the Republican Party of this time can be relevant at all. It really calls the quality of the population of the United States into question. It's a crackpot Party that is totally divorced from reality in very dangerous ways. It wasn't always like that. But it is now. And the fact that a proportion of the People of the United States sufficient to even make them relevant much less sufficient to put them into control of even one House of Congress is very disconcerting.

Two party system. Hyper competitive to a fault like the rest of our culture. Tribalism trumps principle and creates a gap between professed values and actions.

[HI54UNI]

I'm seeing reports that Rs won 6 million more votes than Ds in House races but failed to gain many seats. Isn't that a threat to democracy because the people's voices aren't being heard?

[SeattleGriz]

Noticed it last election and it's continued. The Democrats have figured out how to collect ballots instead of votes. Dems are much better at staffing election groups that will identify potential voters and make sure their ballot gets into the pile. This is pretty obvious in mail in states. If Republicans want to be competitive in those same states, they need to do the same.

I've pointed this out before. Here in Washington, we had a Republican who almost won the Governor seat. By the next election, mail in ballots were approved. Republicans have never been close since then. Dems are simply outworking Reps in this aspect and it's completely legal in the states it's happening.

[kalm]

I'm seeing reports that Rs won 6 million more votes than Ds in House races but failed to gain many seats. Isn't that a threat to democracy because the people's voices aren't being heard?

Did gerrymandering play a role in that?

[GannonFan]

I'm seeing reports that Rs won 6 million more votes than Ds in House races but failed to gain many seats. Isn't that a threat to democracy because the people's voices aren't being heard?

Did gerrymandering play a role in that?

Sure it must. Both parties are very good at gerrymandering anymore. Blue states have turned more blue, red states have turned more red. It's the rare GOP that can be elected in places like New England, and it's the rare Dem that can be elected in a non-major city in the Deep South.