Coronavirus COVID-19

[SeattleGriz]

Let me give you three very easy reasons:

1) The average IFR for those aged 0-59 is .035%
2) Quote: "It appears the FDA no longer requires clinical trial data. Pfizer & Moderna’s new Omicron vax (tested in 8 mice) was authorized today for children, who are at the highest risk of vaccine-induced myocarditis. FDA bypassed their expert advisers. The most political FDA & CDC in U.S. history."
3). The lies. From "if you get vaccinated, you won't get Covid" all the way down to "The shot stays localized and the mRNA is gone within a day or two".

Nobody trusts the FDA and the CDC anymore. Too many lies and too much obfuscation.

Averaging IFR for 0 through 59 involves combining a large age range when we know the situation changes with age. What is the IFR for 50 - 59? Also, it has nothing to do with the question of whether the vaccines significantly mitigate the situation.

Who are you quoting with #2? Nobody ever said you can't get COVID with vaccination. What was always said is that the risk of getting COVID is reduced and the risk of serious disease is also reduced. I recall a discussion we had about mRNA persistence in the body. As I recall you posted a paper that talked about finding the spike protein persisting in a rare case rather than the mRNA per se. But maybe you can post it again to refresh my memory.

I have seen statements saying that most of the shot stays localized. Having seen one saying all of it does.

It doesn't matter anyway. At this point the data indicating that the vaccines significantly reduce the case loads and death rates are overwhelming. And that's in the context of a situation where no more than a third of the people...and probably less than that...are up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations. It's just really obvious at this point that the population would be a LOT better off if everybody was up to date on their vaccinations.

The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49
years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.

So breaking it down, the IFR per 10,000 goes from 3.5 deaths to 12.9. You want everyone to get a vaccine so we can possibly protect 13 people out of 10,000? I highly doubt the possible protection as well, as Pfizer recently admitted what has been said since the beginning. The vaccines do not prevent transmission.

If I remember correctly, it was Marty Makary who I quoted. The point is I'd like to see what clinical data you are using to evaluate the COVID Omicron boosters as safe and effective? I'll give you a hint. There isn't any available for analysis. Approval of the Omicron boosters was based on a study of 8 mice...that all got Covid when challenged. They simply made antibodies. Mice! Not humans.

In regards to your claim the shot stays localized, I've posted three instances in this thread where It obviously hasn't, in addition to Pfizer's own biodistribution study showing the shot doesn't stay localized. Another lie from our wonderful CDC and spokespeople. To make matters worse, in one of the studies I posted, mRNA was still expressing Spike Protein over 60 days later. The CDC has also removed verbiage stating it stays localized and is removed rapidly.

So there you have it. An extremely low IFR, no clinical data available for the public and a history of lies and obfuscation. Not to mention preexisting immunity. More risk than reward for me and my family. As I've said before, offer me a traditional attenuated virus vaccine and I'd be happy to take it, but not any of these mRNA vaccines without the long term studies, especially for something that was never a threat to my family.

[SeattleGriz]

Committee voted 15-0 to add boosters to children's schedule. Pfizer and Moderna now have full on liability protection for severe adverse reactions. Everything below does not matter to this protection.

Now to see if the CDC will follow up and agree, which will then give each state the option to include if wanted. I think something like 12 states follow the CDC exactly. Not 100% sure on that.

Also need to check, but believe this means 18 more shots (yearly Covid shot) to the schedule, which will now require 72 shots delivering around 90 different vaccines.

The Infection Fatality Ratio for 0-19 is .0003%, which means if 1,000,000 kids caught Covid, only 3 would die.

[JohnStOnge]

The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49
years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.

So breaking it down, the IFR per 10,000 goes from 3.5 deaths to 12.9. You want everyone to get a vaccine so we can possibly protect 13 people out of 10,000? I highly doubt the possible protection as well, as Pfizer recently admitted what has been said since the beginning. The vaccines do not prevent transmission.

In the context of what we consider high death rates in this country those are high death rates. And they translate into what we normally consider to be high total numbers of deaths. As of now, the provisional death counts at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... #SexAndAge have the number of deaths in the 0 - 49 year age range at 71,529. If we go with January 18, 2020 as the start of the period to look at because it is the date on which the first COVID-19 positive sample was collected in the United States, we say that the COVID-19 thing has been going on here for 997 days or 997/365.25 = 2.73 years. That works out to 71,529/2.73 = 26,205 COVID-19 deaths among those in the 0 - 49 year age range since the COVID thing started.

To put that into perspective: According to the data at https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-st ... y-snapshot, there were 23,218 motor vehicle crash deaths among people in the 0 - 49 year age range in the United States during 2020.

No, it hasn't been as bad among people in the 0 - 49 year old age group as it has been among older age groups. Not nearly as bad. But it's been bad.

On the issue of preventing transmission: One thing I lament is that people say the vaccines do not prevent transmission because it is true that vaccination does not mean you cannot be infected and/or transmit. But all indications are that they do reduce the RISK of of transmission. See https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298 as an example of a discussion of that. And that means some transmissions that otherwise would have occurred did not because of vaccination. A large number of transmissions are indeed prevented by the vaccines.

The assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/ ... ver%20time. includes the statement:

Being up to date with vaccination provides a transient period of increased protection against infection and transmission after the most recent dose, although protection can wane over time.

I think it is very reasonable to believe that we would have substantially less transmission than we have if we could get everybody who is eligible to be vaccinated to get to the point of being up to date on vaccination. And then we'd have to get them to continue to get boosters as necessary. But the tool is there to reduce the rate of transmission.

So you get some reduction in risk there and you do other things to reduce the risk in other ways like...THE HORROR...mask wearing and paying attention to social distancing.

Meanwhile, if you use the average daily rate of COVID-19 deaths over the 7 day period ending yesterday, we find that a year at that rate would mean 89,842 deaths. But people act like nothing is going on.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of stupid in the United States. I always shake my heads when they talk about the American people being smart. The people of the United States, on average, are not smart. Or maybe i should say "not informed." They are, on average, horribly ignorant and horribly vulnerable to misinformation.

[JohnStOnge]

On the issue of approving the bivalent vaccines: The FDA has extensive experiences in approving the tweaking of vaccines to address changes in strains. It does that all the time with the influenza vaccine.

This thing of not trusting the FDA on things like this is foolish. Every time you take any medication, over the counter or prescription, the reason you know it is safe and effective is because the FDA determined it is safe and effective. The FDA's performance in that regard over the years SHOULD have more than earned your confidence. Has it EVERY had something slip through? Yes. But that has been VERY are in the context of the number of drugs, vaccines, etc., it has dealt with.

One of the saddest things about this episode is that it's compromised peoples' confidence in the CDC and the FDA because of noise and misinformation. People have died because of it.

[JohnStOnge]

Committee voted 15-0 to add boosters to children's schedule. Pfizer and Moderna now have full on liability protection for severe adverse reactions. Everything below does not matter to this protection.

Now to see if the CDC will follow up and agree, which will then give each state the option to include if wanted. I think something like 12 states follow the CDC exactly. Not 100% sure on that.

Also need to check, but believe this means 18 more shots (yearly Covid shot) to the schedule, which will now require 72 shots delivering around 90 different vaccines.

The Infection Fatality Ratio for 0-19 is .0003%, which means if 1,000,000 kids caught Covid, only 3 would die.

That's right. You guys listen to SeatlleGriz on this one. Don't listen to the American Medical Association;

https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/p ... nder-age-5

We urge parents to get their children vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as they are eligible. While there is overwhelming scientific evidence showing the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, we know many parents and families still have questions.

That last part means "We know we have a lot of horribly ignorant people in the United States who have been buying into the misinformation."

[SeattleGriz]

On the issue of approving the bivalent vaccines: The FDA has extensive experiences in approving the tweaking of vaccines to address changes in strains. It does that all the time with the influenza vaccine.

This thing of not trusting the FDA on things like this is foolish. Every time you take any medication, over the counter or prescription, the reason you know it is safe and effective is because the FDA determined it is safe and effective. The FDA's performance in that regard over the years SHOULD have more than earned your confidence. Has it EVERY had something slip through? Yes. But that has been VERY are in the context of the number of drugs, vaccines, etc., it has dealt with.

One of the saddest things about this episode is that it's compromised peoples' confidence in the CDC and the FDA because of noise and misinformation. People have died because of it.

Of course you'd miss the point here. Your lack of basic understanding of not only biochemistry, but lack of understanding how getting a vaccine approved is astounding.

First off, the mRNA platform of the Covid vaccine is vastly different than that of the Flu vaccine. The Flu vaccine does not inject any sort of ribonucleic acid. It usually is either an attenuated virus or protein subunit. Your body is not required to assemble anything.

Secondly, the Flu vaccine actually has clinical safety data that has been reviewed by outside sources and a much longer record of being observed.

How about you give me a link of the clinical safety data for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines?

[SeattleGriz]

Committee voted 15-0 to add boosters to children's schedule. Pfizer and Moderna now have full on liability protection for severe adverse reactions. Everything below does not matter to this protection.

Now to see if the CDC will follow up and agree, which will then give each state the option to include if wanted. I think something like 12 states follow the CDC exactly. Not 100% sure on that.

Also need to check, but believe this means 18 more shots (yearly Covid shot) to the schedule, which will now require 72 shots delivering around 90 different vaccines.

The Infection Fatality Ratio for 0-19 is .0003%, which means if 1,000,000 kids caught Covid, only 3 would die.

That's right. You guys listen to SeatlleGriz on this one. Don't listen to the American Medical Association;

https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/p ... nder-age-5

We urge parents to get their children vaccinated against COVID-19 as soon as they are eligible. While there is overwhelming scientific evidence showing the COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective, we know many parents and families still have questions.

That last part means "We know we have a lot of horribly ignorant people in the United States who have been buying into the misinformation."

You seem to have been waiting to use that line and appear to have shoehorned it into your rebuttal without caring that it doesn't fit.

Everything I stated was factual.

Once again. Show me the clinical safety data proving that vaccinating your children has benefits, because European countries are looking at that data and coming to different conclusions on vaccinating children.

[Gil Dobie]

Lot of justification and massaged statistics on both sides. Life is too short for that rabbit hole, on either side.

[SeattleGriz]

The median IFR was 0.0003% at 0-19 years, 0.003% at 20-29 years, 0.011% at 30-39 years, 0.035% at 40-49
years, 0.129% at 50-59 years, and 0.501% at 60-69 years.

So breaking it down, the IFR per 10,000 goes from 3.5 deaths to 12.9. You want everyone to get a vaccine so we can possibly protect 13 people out of 10,000? I highly doubt the possible protection as well, as Pfizer recently admitted what has been said since the beginning. The vaccines do not prevent transmission.

In the context of what we consider high death rates in this country those are high death rates. And they translate into what we normally consider to be high total numbers of deaths. As of now, the provisional death counts at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... #SexAndAge have the number of deaths in the 0 - 49 year age range at 71,529. If we go with January 18, 2020 as the start of the period to look at because it is the date on which the first COVID-19 positive sample was collected in the United States, we say that the COVID-19 thing has been going on here for 997 days or 997/365.25 = 2.73 years. That works out to 71,529/2.73 = 26,205 COVID-19 deaths among those in the 0 - 49 year age range since the COVID thing started.

To put that into perspective: According to the data at https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-st ... y-snapshot, there were 23,218 motor vehicle crash deaths among people in the 0 - 49 year age range in the United States during 2020.

No, it hasn't been as bad among people in the 0 - 49 year old age group as it has been among older age groups. Not nearly as bad. But it's been bad.

On the issue of preventing transmission: One thing I lament is that people say the vaccines do not prevent transmission because it is true that vaccination does not mean you cannot be infected and/or transmit. But all indications are that they do reduce the RISK of of transmission. See https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o298 as an example of a discussion of that. And that means some transmissions that otherwise would have occurred did not because of vaccination. A large number of transmissions are indeed prevented by the vaccines.

The assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/ ... ver%20time. includes the statement:

Being up to date with vaccination provides a transient period of increased protection against infection and transmission after the most recent dose, although protection can wane over time.

I think it is very reasonable to believe that we would have substantially less transmission than we have if we could get everybody who is eligible to be vaccinated to get to the point of being up to date on vaccination. And then we'd have to get them to continue to get boosters as necessary. But the tool is there to reduce the rate of transmission.

So you get some reduction in risk there and you do other things to reduce the risk in other ways like...THE HORROR...mask wearing and paying attention to social distancing.

Meanwhile, if you use the average daily rate of COVID-19 deaths over the 7 day period ending yesterday, we find that a year at that rate would mean 89,842 deaths. But people act like nothing is going on.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of stupid in the United States. I always shake my heads when they talk about the American people being smart. The people of the United States, on average, are not smart. Or maybe i should say "not informed." They are, on average, horribly ignorant and horribly vulnerable to misinformation.

Who is we? And do you speak for them?

I'll leave this here for you.

According to a recent study by Johns Hopkins, more than 250,000 people in the United States die every year because of medical mistakes, making it the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer.

I'm more worried about poor health and wellness choices leading to bad outcomes, including Covid, than I am about Covid itself. Well, that and medical mistakes killing people.

Being up to date with vaccination provides a transient period of increased protection against infection and transmission after the most recent dose, although protection can wane over time.

Gotta love your singular mentality of if we can simply vaccinate the whole world and keep up timely boosters, the time frame for which appears to now be about every 2-3 months, we can stay on top of our transient protection and finally vanquish dreaded Covid.

Nevermind that's just straight up stupid and impossible. You should really go back to espousing your brilliance on the topic of Economics, because COVID is over. You lost and your style of thinking has caused great damage to the health and wellness of this country.

I am on record multiple times in this thread stating that if you want/need the vaccine, great, that is your choice. It's called targeted protection and something my family adhered to during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic because my wife was going through some of the worst chemo for bone cancer. We all got flu shots, my kids weren't allowed to play with other kids and I isolated in a different room than my wife upon returning from business trips working with medical practices.

COVID did not warrant that response from my family.

[SeattleGriz]

Lot of justification and massaged statistics on both sides. Life is too short for that rabbit hole, on either side.

Oh I agree, but the issue I see is the "establishment" won't release the raw data. Isn't that at the heart of science? Letting others see your work and helping to improve?

By the way, good to see you on the board and especially great to hear you and your wife have been Covid free. May Covid keep becoming weaker.

[SeattleGriz]

According to StOnge, if they'd have only tried harder, they could have been Covid free.

[Gil Dobie]

Lot of justification and massaged statistics on both sides. Life is too short for that rabbit hole, on either side.

Oh I agree, but the issue I see is the "establishment" won't release the raw data. Isn't that at the heart of science? Letting others see your work and helping to improve?

By the way, good to see you on the board and especially great to hear you and your wife have been Covid free. May Covid keep becoming weaker.

I've been posting in non poli threads. It's football season.

[SDHornet]

He's delving into the level of superstitious beliefs. If we'd have only...

If "If and buts were cocaine and sluts, we would have one hell of a party".

[SDHornet]

Been saying it from the start. CDC to vote whether to add Covid shot to child vaccine schedule in the next couple days. Why? Because it offers the pharmaceutical industry full liability. No more EUA needed to protect them, once added to the childhood schedule. Covers adults and kids.

Bet we finally start seeing Comirnaty.

That and another few million vaccines were ordered. Got to use them up somehow.

[SeattleGriz]

Been saying it from the start. CDC to vote whether to add Covid shot to child vaccine schedule in the next couple days. Why? Because it offers the pharmaceutical industry full liability. No more EUA needed to protect them, once added to the childhood schedule. Covers adults and kids.

Bet we finally start seeing Comirnaty.

That and another few million vaccines were ordered. Got to use them up somehow.

How long ago did I call this one? Way back in Spring. Get on the children's schedule and you get liability protection.

[SDHornet]

That and another few million vaccines were ordered. Got to use them up somehow.

How long ago did I call this one? Way back in Spring. Get on the children's schedule and you get liability protection.

at anyone that puts that shit in their kids body.

[SeattleGriz]

It was never about money. It was always about saving lives.

[kalm]

Trump had a plan!

[GannonFan]

It was never about money. It was always about saving lives.

Why can't it be about both? That's how capitalism works, marrying together needs for the market with the ability to profit from meeting those needs.

[JohnStOnge]

On the issue of approving the bivalent vaccines: The FDA has extensive experiences in approving the tweaking of vaccines to address changes in strains. It does that all the time with the influenza vaccine.

This thing of not trusting the FDA on things like this is foolish. Every time you take any medication, over the counter or prescription, the reason you know it is safe and effective is because the FDA determined it is safe and effective. The FDA's performance in that regard over the years SHOULD have more than earned your confidence. Has it EVERY had something slip through? Yes. But that has been VERY are in the context of the number of drugs, vaccines, etc., it has dealt with.

One of the saddest things about this episode is that it's compromised peoples' confidence in the CDC and the FDA because of noise and misinformation. People have died because of it.

Of course you'd miss the point here. Your lack of basic understanding of not only biochemistry, but lack of understanding how getting a vaccine approved is astounding.

First off, the mRNA platform of the Covid vaccine is vastly different than that of the Flu vaccine. The Flu vaccine does not inject any sort of ribonucleic acid. It usually is either an attenuated virus or protein subunit. Your body is not required to assemble anything.

Secondly, the Flu vaccine actually has clinical safety data that has been reviewed by outside sources and a much longer record of being observed.

How about you give me a link of the clinical safety data for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines?

I think it's pretty obvious that the mRNA vaccines are of a different type. It's also obvious that the flu vaccine has been around for longer.

I can't give you raw data on clinical safety, but you can see an assessment of clinical data at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7135a3.ht`

The FDA knows what it is doing in this area. This is the problem. Based on a long history, it should be enough for you and others like you to just know that the FDA did an Emergency Use Authorization. But we have this situation in which a deluge of misinformation has caused a completely unjustified lack of confidence.

[SeattleGriz]

It was never about money. It was always about saving lives.

Why can't it be about both? That's how capitalism works, marrying together needs for the market with the ability to profit from meeting those needs.

Meh. Ya got me on this one. I got no real complaints.

[SeattleGriz]

Of course you'd miss the point here. Your lack of basic understanding of not only biochemistry, but lack of understanding how getting a vaccine approved is astounding.

First off, the mRNA platform of the Covid vaccine is vastly different than that of the Flu vaccine. The Flu vaccine does not inject any sort of ribonucleic acid. It usually is either an attenuated virus or protein subunit. Your body is not required to assemble anything.

Secondly, the Flu vaccine actually has clinical safety data that has been reviewed by outside sources and a much longer record of being observed.

How about you give me a link of the clinical safety data for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines?

I think it's pretty obvious that the mRNA vaccines are of a different type. It's also obvious that the flu vaccine has been around for longer.

I can't give you raw data on clinical safety, but you can see an assessment of clinical data at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7135a3.ht`

The FDA knows what it is doing in this area. This is the problem. Based on a long history, it should be enough for you and others like you to just know that the FDA did an Emergency Use Authorization. But we have this situation in which a deluge of misinformation has caused a completely unjustified lack of confidence.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nationalpo ... d2b02/amp/

Head of CDC gets COVID after getting new bivalent booster, leading to 'push back and mocking'

[JohnStOnge]

According to StOnge, if they'd have only tried harder, they could have been Covid free.

I never talked about being COVID-19 free. What I've always talked about is interrupting chains of transmission in order to minimize the spread. Vaccination is one factor in that. i don't think there is any doubt that the United States would have had far fewer cases and even farther fewer deaths is we had had everybody who is eligible to be vaccinated up to date on their vaccination at all times. Also fewer still if everyone had followed all public health recommendations including community masking and social distancing.

On Singapore in particular: I do not think of comparing between countries as being like comparing between States because I think that, while it's not perfect, there is SOME standardization between US States. But let's go with Singapore. It's a mixed bad. On one hand, according to Worldometers, they actually have a higher cumulative case rate than the United States does (350,017 vs. 296,376 per million population). But they have a WAY lower death rate (281 vs. 3,268 per million population). So I don't know if what's happened in Singapore provides a real good "anti vax" argument.

[JohnStOnge]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nationalpo ... d2b02/amp/

Head of CDC gets COVID after getting new bivalent booster, leading to 'push back and mocking'

I don't know why you think that is remarkable. The vaccines reduce the risk. That does not mean nobody who gets vaccinated will test positive. There is no doubt, at all, that we would have had fewer people test positive over time if everyone eligible had kept up to date on their vaccinations at all times.

It's like saying driver restraints don't reduce the risk of death in a motor vehicle accident because someone who is wearing a driver restraint dies in a motor vehicle accident. It's a very flawed inference.

[SeattleGriz]

A couple small studies are showing the new bivalent vaccine does worse than simply getting another shot of the original. The rebuttal is the studies are small, which is true.

Also being brought up now is the topic of original antigenic sin. A concept I brought up a long time ago. Essentially the body remembers the first encounter and uses that playbook. It happens with both vaccines and infections.

What I will say, is if OAS or also known as immune imprinting is real and caused by the vaccine, they'll reduce the dose and spread out the next version to help prevent that issue.

The other issue, which I have no idea how to fix other than determining dose through age and size metrics, would be how do you determine how much spike protein is made by each person?

Why do you think the young are suffering through the myocarditis issue when the elderly aren't? It's because you can bet the kids "machinery" is much more capable of making the spike protein as opposed to the elderly.