Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

[OL FU]

The only one it will matter with is Trump. Someone says he isn't worth $10B and he will spend the next week tweeting about how stupid that person is.



Glad I don't do twitter

$10B, $1B...does it matter? The man can finance the majority of his campaign out of his pocket. That's some serious cash.

Not my point. And I clearly said he is loaded. Just prolly not as loaded as he bragged which is classic trump

[DSUrocks07]

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[Ibanez]

Clinton Super-PAC is hiring trolls.

http://correctrecord.org/barrier-breake ... he-record/

In response to these attacks on supporters and superdelegates, Correct The Record is launching the Barrier Breakers 2016 digital task force. While Hillary Clinton fights to break down barriers and bring America together, the Barrier Breakers 2016 digital task force will serve as a resource for supporters looking for positive content and push-back to share with their online progressive communities, as well as thanking prominent supporters and committed superdelegates on social media.

Correct The Record will invest more than $1 million into Barrier Breakers 2016 activities, including the more than tripling of its digital operation to engage in online messaging both for Secretary Clinton and to push back against attackers on social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and Instagram.

DBJ and JSO, I tried to sign you two up, but they said y'all were the first people to volunteer.

[Ibanez]

http://thankadelegate.com/

You can go here to send a twitter message of support to the superdelegates.

There is no way this doesn't become abused.

[93henfan]

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[Ibanez]

$10B, $1B...does it matter? The man can finance the majority of his campaign out of his pocket. That's some serious cash.

Not my point. And I clearly said he is loaded. Just prolly not as loaded as he bragged which is classic trump

[DSUrocks07]

Clinton Super-PAC is hiring trolls.

http://correctrecord.org/barrier-breake ... he-record/

In response to these attacks on supporters and superdelegates, Correct The Record is launching the Barrier Breakers 2016 digital task force. While Hillary Clinton fights to break down barriers and bring America together, the Barrier Breakers 2016 digital task force will serve as a resource for supporters looking for positive content and push-back to share with their online progressive communities, as well as thanking prominent supporters and committed superdelegates on social media.

Correct The Record will invest more than $1 million into Barrier Breakers 2016 activities, including the more than tripling of its digital operation to engage in online messaging both for Secretary Clinton and to push back against attackers on social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and Instagram.

DBJ and JSO, I tried to sign you two up, but they said y'all were the first people to volunteer.

It's going to be SOOO hypocritical and awkward for the Bern-bots who switch over to the Clinton camp.

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[YoUDeeMan]

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[SDHornet]

Clinton Super-PAC is hiring trolls.

http://correctrecord.org/barrier-breake ... he-record/




DBJ and JSO, I tried to sign you two up, but they said y'all were the first people to volunteer.

It's going to be SOOO hypocritical and awkward for the Bern-bots who switch over to the Clinton camp.

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This. I've got some teacher friends who are/were ardent Bernie supporters who are already trying to pave the way to a hilldog switch over…boy are they going to get called out for their hypocritical BS by this guy.

[SDHornet]

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[JohnStOnge]

Just another reminder about poll interpretation. Polling is a very valuable tool. But you have to keep the error in mind. And I am continually amazed at how people will declare that things are happening because polls change some. Like for instance look at this latest Real Clear Politics display on Trump vs. Clinton:



You can see a lot of variation. But let's talk about how it works. Take the latest poll indicated (Gravis). Let's assume that it reflects the actual truth. 48% for Clinton and 46% for Trump. What would happen if the actual truth never changed between now and November 8 but they kept doing the same poll and they were able to get a perfectly sound sample? That would be doing it 25 times. I did a simulation. The results ranged from Clinton being up by 5 percentage points to Trump being up by 3 percentage points. That's an 8 percentage point swing.

The poll reports a 2.5 percentage point margin of error. That refers to the percentage with any individual response (Clinton, Trump, Neither). The margin of error for the difference between Clinton and Trump is more like plus or minus 5 percentage points. That's IF the only error is random sampling error.

There are other sources of error because pollsters are NEVER able to get a completely theoretically sound sample. To begin with,the "margins of error" are 95% intervals. That means that the true value will be outside of them about 1 in 20 times. But it's going to be more than that because of the error beyond random sampling error.

There's another thing to consider. Polls vary in quality. The Gravis poll, for instance, got a "C" in the ratings at http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... r-ratings/. Of course I'm happy to say that the CNN/OPC poll got an "A-". Oh...and the Rasmussen poll got a "C."

I'm honest without myself about polling. Like for instance I was saying throughout the leadup to the 2012 election that Obama was going to win. I didn't like it. But that's what an overall assessment of all the polls I could see over time indicated.

But you have to remember that this stuff of saying that Candidate A being up 10 points one week then up 4 points the next week means something "real" is going on where candidate "B" is surging is jumping to conclusions. Like look at those Clinton Trump polls above. A poll conducted 4/22-4/28 shows Clinton up 7. Then a poll conducted 4/27-4/28 shows Trump up 2. THEN a poll conducted 4/28-5/1 shows Clinton up 13. Do you REALLY think things were switching back and forth like that?

Of course not.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm starting to see indications that the media may be starting to focus on what a lying SOB Trump is. Minor stuff so far. But just looking at how friggin' dishonest the guy is. Good deal. Hope it continues.

[Ivytalk]

I'm honest without myself about polling.

What do you mean, exactly?

[∞∞∞]

Supposedly the Democrats have a wealth of information they've gathered about Trump's past that hasn't been released. It'll be interesting if anything substantial comes from it. I think Clinton, her staff, and the Party are prepared to run a scorched Earth campaign (although she said she wouldn't).

[JohnStOnge]

Supposedly the Democrats have a wealth of information they've gathered about Trump's past that hasn't been released. It'll be interesting if anything substantial comes from it. I think Clinton, her staff, and the Party are prepared to run a scorched Earth campaign (although she said she wouldn't).

As I wrote several times during the primary when I was lamenting how stupid Republican primary voters were being in supporting Trump his past record of actions and statements is a target rich environment. It may be richer than I knew. Don't know.

Clinton's got her own issues but I do think that her "bad" stories are more widely known already. Also I think the Democrats are way more sophisticated with respect to to campaigning.

Hopefully it'll work out and he'll get crushed because this country really needs for him to get not only defeated but really crushed so that people don't do something like this again.

[∞∞∞]

I respect that the voters want a Washington outsider, but of all the outsiders, Trump? Someone who has deep connections with Washington politicians (on both sides nonetheless)?

Whatever, will of the people or something...

[HI54UNI]

Supposedly the Democrats have a wealth of information they've gathered about Trump's past that hasn't been released. It'll be interesting if anything substantial comes from it. I think Clinton, her staff, and the Party are prepared to run a scorched Earth campaign (although she said she wouldn't).

Did you believe her when she said that? That's all she knows how to do.

[JohnStOnge]

I'm honest without myself about polling.

What do you mean, exactly?

I mean I objectively assess what the polling appears to indicate regardless of whether it's what I'd like for the reality to be or not. Right now I think the polling shows Donald Trump is doing better than I hoped he would be doing at this point, for instance. What I want is for him to lose in a landslide of historic proportions. I think that is important. I think the polling indicates that if the election were held tomorrow he would lose. But not by the kind of landslide I'd like to see him lose by. Also, I think he is in striking distance. I am disappointed that he's being taken as seriously as he's being taken by the general electorate. And I'm disappointed that as many Republicans are deciding to support him as is the case. I do think that he's got a support deficit with people who identify as "conservative" as compared to previous Republican candidates. But not to the extent that I would like.

I think the fact that Donald Trump is even a factor is a horrifying indictment with respect to the nature of the current United States population. As a country we've got issues because We, The People, are pretty sick.

[∞∞∞]

Supposedly the Democrats have a wealth of information they've gathered about Trump's past that hasn't been released. It'll be interesting if anything substantial comes from it. I think Clinton, her staff, and the Party are prepared to run a scorched Earth campaign (although she said she wouldn't).

Did you believe her when she said that? That's all she knows how to do.

I'm under no illusion that politicians lie.

[JohnStOnge]

Did you believe her when she said that? That's all she knows how to do.

I'm under no illusion that politicians lie.

She doesn't have to be the one to do it. There are third parties. When it comes to the Democrats very sophisticated and technologically savvy third parties.

Their anti-Trump ads won't be nearly as clumsy as what you saw during the Republican primaries.

[UNI88]

Ignoring JSO's unhealthy, some might say mentally disturbed, obsession with Trump, I think this election is going to be very interesting. I'm not a Trump fan in any way shape or form and think he would be a horrible President but I understand his appeal and find all of the establishment Republican butthurt humorous considering it was their taking constituents for granted that led to Trump's rise.

Hilary is close to the perfect Democratic opponent for Trump. Her warts are comparable to his and might help to cancel them out for voters. Trump's a misogynist - Hilary has Bill's dalliances and her undermining the other women as a counterbalance. Trump won't release his tax returns - Hilary won't release her transcripts. Trump lies - Hilary lies. I'm looking forward to watching this play out and hope that whichever candidate wins doesn't screw up the country too badly and hopefully it helps to push one or both parties to recognize that they can't continue to take their supporters for granted.

[∞∞∞]

Ignoring JSO's unhealthy, some might say mentally disturbed, obsession with Trump, I think this election is going to be very interesting. I'm not a Trump fan in any way shape or form and think he would be a horrible President but I understand his appeal and find all of the establishment Republican butthurt humorous considering it was their taking constituents for granted that led to Trump's rise.

Hilary is close to the perfect Democratic opponent for Trump. Her warts are comparable to his and might help to cancel them out for voters. Trump's a misogynist - Hilary has Bill's dalliances and her undermining the other women as a counterbalance. Trump won't release his tax returns - Hilary won't release her transcripts. Trump lies - Hilary lies. I'm looking forward to watching this play out and hope that whichever candidate wins doesn't screw up the country too badly and hopefully it helps to push one or both parties to recognize that they can't continue to take their supporters for granted.

I think regardless of who wins, they'll be a one-term President unless they can generate a ton of positives...which I doubt with what they have to face in Congress. And neither has Obama's political savvy to just tell Congress to fuck themselves. I think Congress will pull back the power of government in their favor in the next four years (but likely still bitch about each other and accomplish nothing).

This upcoming President, for all intents and purposes, seems to be a placeholder President. Supposedly the candidates being groomed for 2020 are much stronger than what we've seen in this cycle (unless Trump or Hillary completely drag those people down in the next four years).

[Ivytalk]

Ignoring JSO's unhealthy, some might say mentally disturbed, obsession with Trump, I think this election is going to be very interesting. I'm not a Trump fan in any way shape or form and think he would be a horrible President but I understand his appeal and find all of the establishment Republican butthurt humorous considering it was their taking constituents for granted that led to Trump's rise.

Hilary is close to the perfect Democratic opponent for Trump. Her warts are comparable to his and might help to cancel them out for voters. Trump's a misogynist - Hilary has Bill's dalliances and her undermining the other women as a counterbalance. Trump won't release his tax returns - Hilary won't release her transcripts. Trump lies - Hilary lies. I'm looking forward to watching this play out and hope that whichever candidate wins doesn't screw up the country too badly and hopefully it helps to push one or both parties to recognize that they can't continue to take their supporters for granted.

So you're voting for whom, exactly? Stake out a position and defend it. Enough with the "plague on both your houses" stuff. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are acceptable answers, if you "show your work."

[UNI88]

Ignoring JSO's unhealthy, some might say mentally disturbed, obsession with Trump, I think this election is going to be very interesting. I'm not a Trump fan in any way shape or form and think he would be a horrible President but I understand his appeal and find all of the establishment Republican butthurt humorous considering it was their taking constituents for granted that led to Trump's rise.

Hilary is close to the perfect Democratic opponent for Trump. Her warts are comparable to his and might help to cancel them out for voters. Trump's a misogynist - Hilary has Bill's dalliances and her undermining the other women as a counterbalance. Trump won't release his tax returns - Hilary won't release her transcripts. Trump lies - Hilary lies. I'm looking forward to watching this play out and hope that whichever candidate wins doesn't screw up the country too badly and hopefully it helps to push one or both parties to recognize that they can't continue to take their supporters for granted.

So you're voting for whom, exactly? Stake out a position and defend it. Enough with the "plague on both your houses" stuff. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are acceptable answers, if you "show your work."

I'm voting for Gary Johnson. I've been a small l libertarian for 20 years and have not hidden it. I want fiscal responsibility, limited foreign interventions, smaller government focused on infrastructure & defense and staying out of the bedroom, etc.

[Ivytalk]

So you're voting for whom, exactly? Stake out a position and defend it. Enough with the "plague on both your houses" stuff. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are acceptable answers, if you "show your work."

I'm voting for Gary Johnson. I've been a small l libertarian for 20 years and have not hidden it. I want fiscal responsibility, limited foreign interventions, smaller government focused on infrastructure & defense and staying out of the bedroom, etc.

I agree with most of this. I disagree with the most partisan Libertarians on open borders. See Nick Gillespie, etc.