2020 Election Predictions

[SDHornet]

Well apparently they think they need to extend the time at the polls, because getting 2 weeks to vote (or whatever it is in NC) still isn't enough.

The extending time at the polls is a weird thing for me - unless there was an actual mechanical failure that prevented a machine from working at a precinct, why extend? And even then, why extend when you can just say whoever is in line at the end of the polling timeframe are the only ones allowed to still vote? With so much move to vote by mail and early voting windows, two weeks here or a month in some places, there's less and less need for this extending the poll times.

I think there was machine issues, but I'm not gonna let that get in the way of a weak troll attempt.

[SDHornet]

Well apparently they think they need to extend the time at the polls, because getting 2 weeks to vote (or whatever it is in NC) still isn't enough.

I told my wife that if you can’t your ass to a voting precinct with the 2-3 weeks of early voting or muscle the power to request and return a ballot within a month or so of an election then we shouldn’t be trying to help you beyond that. There’s plenty of time and chances.


That said - I’d you’ve postmarked a ballot with today’s date then it should be counted. But come on - get your shit together.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agree with the postmark by election day. But you know, voter suppression or something.

[houndawg]

True, but its easy to pass off a narrative like that when the oponent is a straight-up criminal enterprise

Wrong again houndy, that narrative only still has legs because of the media blatantly covering for Biden during this Hunter scandal. It's quite obvious to anyone with a pulse at this point.

You're out of touch - "Huntergate" is all over the media, you can't log into FB without it being on your screen. And it is having an effect - Hunter Biden lost a lot of votes because of it. I know I didn't vote for him.

[houndawg]

The extending time at the polls is a weird thing for me - unless there was an actual mechanical failure that prevented a machine from working at a precinct, why extend? And even then, why extend when you can just say whoever is in line at the end of the polling timeframe are the only ones allowed to still vote? With so much move to vote by mail and early voting windows, two weeks here or a month in some places, there's less and less need for this extending the poll times.

I think there was machine issues, but I'm not gonna let that get in the way of a weak troll attempt.

Told you about the crooked machines years ago.

The greatest irony in US political history was the Ds getting hosed by the machines in exactly the same fashion as they used them to screw Bernie in the primary.

And how 'bout The Squad coasting through easily? The Ds losing seats in the House really ups their bargaining power - I think they're going to have a lot of input and you being a Team Brown member must be giddy with excitement at the upcoming legislation

[JoltinJoe]

I'm giving odds on the House deciding this one for the first time since 1876.

Kicker wager: The Supreme Court does not get involved at all, unless it is to reverse directives of lower courts.

[Before you jump, take a look at the history of my predictions over the years. They are inerrantly accurate. But this one is going way out on a limb, because it will require at least one, maybe two, red state legislatures to pass on appointing electors. They made not have the fire in the belly to do that].

[houndawg]

I'm giving odds on the House deciding this one for the first time since 1876.

Kicker wager: The Supreme Court does not get involved at all, unless it is to reverse directives of lower courts.

Neither will be necessary

[Ibanez]

I'm giving odds on the House deciding this one for the first time since 1876.

Kicker wager: The Supreme Court does not get involved at all, unless it is to reverse directives of lower courts.

[Before you jump, take a look at the history of my predictions over the years. They are inerrantly accurate. But this one is going way out on a limb, because it will require at least one, maybe two, red state legislatures to pass on appointing electors. They made not have the fire in the belly to do that].

I hope they don't have the fire to overturn the voice of the voter. The voters are pretty clear - Biden is President. Like it or not, that's where we are at. We'll see with the litigation that Sue 'Em Donny is unleashing but I have to HOPE that the GOP establishment will eventually grow a backbone. Graham won't. He's a lost cause. But maybe if the EV is high enough the GOP convinces him to lose with whatever grace he can muster.

[Skjellyfetti]

Just curious you think that Biden having to defend Minnesota is a bad sign... but, Trump having to defend Jawjuh and Iowa doesn't seem to be.

Jawja amd IA are pretty far down the Trump defense list in terms of rallies. Trump Gen election rallies starting with Tulsa on 6/20 scheduled through Mon:
PA: 13
NC: 7
MI: 7
WI: 7
AZ: 6
FL: 6
MN: 4
OH: 3
NV: 3
NH: 2
GA: 2
IA: 2
OK: 1 (6/20 1st rally of gen election campaign)
SD: 1 (7/3 4th of July celebration)
VA: 1
NE: 1

oops

[JoltinJoe]

I'm giving odds on the House deciding this one for the first time since 1876.

Kicker wager: The Supreme Court does not get involved at all, unless it is to reverse directives of lower courts.

[Before you jump, take a look at the history of my predictions over the years. They are inerrantly accurate. But this one is going way out on a limb, because it will require at least one, maybe two, red state legislatures to pass on appointing electors. They made not have the fire in the belly to do that].

I hope they don't have the fire to overturn the voice of the voter. The voters are pretty clear - Biden is President. Like it or not, that's where we are at. We'll see with the litigation that Sue 'Em Donny is unleashing but I have to HOPE that the GOP establishment will eventually grow a backbone. Graham won't. He's a lost cause. But maybe if the EV is high enough the GOP convinces him to lose with whatever grace he can muster.

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

[Skjellyfetti]

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

I'm pretty sure Trump wins if it goes to the House of Representatives.

But, that would require him to win PA. Not looking likely at all.

[Ibanez]

I hope they don't have the fire to overturn the voice of the voter. The voters are pretty clear - Biden is President. Like it or not, that's where we are at. We'll see with the litigation that Sue 'Em Donny is unleashing but I have to HOPE that the GOP establishment will eventually grow a backbone. Graham won't. He's a lost cause. But maybe if the EV is high enough the GOP convinces him to lose with whatever grace he can muster.

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".

[houndawg]

I hope they don't have the fire to overturn the voice of the voter. The voters are pretty clear - Biden is President. Like it or not, that's where we are at. We'll see with the litigation that Sue 'Em Donny is unleashing but I have to HOPE that the GOP establishment will eventually grow a backbone. Graham won't. He's a lost cause. But maybe if the EV is high enough the GOP convinces him to lose with whatever grace he can muster.

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

They don't need to cut a deal, the Rs need to cut a deal

[JoltinJoe]

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".

Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.

[Skjellyfetti]

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

Slightly wider than Trump's 2016 victory deemed by him and Red Hats as a "landslide."

[JoltinJoe]

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

They don't need to cut a deal, the Rs need to cut a deal

Not so. The Republicans still control the outcome of this election, and can dictate the result, if they want to go nuclear. Will they go nuclear is the question. But I bet they will at least threaten to go nuclear.

[Ibanez]

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".

Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.

Please explain to me how our elections work..i'm new here.


So you agree - the Republicans will steal this election from Biden. Got it, thanks JJ.

[GannonFan]

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

Look, the Republicans don't really care at all about Trump. They'd be happy to see him gone.

What worries the Republicans isn't Biden in the White House, or even being a Senate minority for two years. What they are worried about is the threat to pack the Supreme Court. Few Republicans are going to fall on their sword for Trump. But they will do so if it means avoiding a Supreme Court that will reverse Heller; re-institute the full sweep of Roe; and re-read the First Amendment so that the Non-Establishment Clause swallows up the Free Exercise clause. So every procedural tool is going to be on the table to avoid allowing Democrats to control the Senate and White House, and then pack the Supreme Court. Falling on their sword to protect the integrity of the Supreme Court will go over big in red states.

This about the federal courts, and most notably the Supreme Court. If the Democrats promise hands-off the S.C., as they say in the movies, "No one will get hurt."

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".

Eh, Trump's going away, and soon. He's never cared that much about government or the position, his care has always been about his image. He'll retire to Mir-A-Lago, play golf a heckuva lot, tweet more often than we'd like, and will likely leave this Earth in the next decade. That's one advantage of really old politicians, they don't tend to stay around very long.

[Ibanez]

They don't need to cut a deal, the Rs need to cut a deal

Not so. The Republicans still control the outcome of this election, and can dictate the result, if they want to go nuclear. Will they go nuclear is the question. But I bet they will at least threaten to go nuclear.

Yes, the Republicans will go nuclear. Bet on it. They'll steal the election. That's the fraud we should be worried about.

[Ibanez]

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".

Eh, Trump's going away, and soon. He's never cared that much about government or the position, his care has always been about his image. He'll retire to Mir-A-Lago, play golf a heckuva lot, tweet more often than we'd like, and will likely leave this Earth in the next decade. That's one advantage of really old politicians, they don't tend to stay around very long.

Jimmy Carter is still living. Trump won't go quietly into the night. We know that for a fact. almost 70M Americans voted for him. He is popular and will use that to stay in the spotlight. He's going to need the money, he's got bills coming due.

[GannonFan]

Not so. The Republicans still control the outcome of this election, and can dictate the result, if they want to go nuclear. Will they go nuclear is the question. But I bet they will at least threaten to go nuclear.

Yes, the Republicans will go nuclear. Bet on it. They'll steal the election. That's the fraud we should be worried about.

What are you guys talking about? What the heck is the nuclear option here? We knew it late on Tuesday that Trump was going to lose. None of this is terribly shocking at this point. But I don't know what you mean by going nuclear. Do we need to clean up our election process in the US? Absolutely. We're fine in elections where the margins are measured in the millions and all the error and fraud that could and probably is going on is overcome just by sheer volume, but where we have issues is when the margins are measured in the hundreds or just a few thousand. But I don't know how we retroactively fix that.

But this election is clear - Trump is out (not by the overwhelming repudiation Dems wanted, but that doesn't change that he's out), the Senate's likely going to stay GOP (especially with Biden in the WH), and the House is still Democrats but at a shockingly much lower margin than expected. Time to move on.

[JoltinJoe]

Break out the cigars, because it may well be that an old-fashioned deal gets struck giving Biden the presidency.

I'm pretty sure Trump wins if it goes to the House of Representatives.

But, that would require him to win PA. Not looking likely at all.

You are 100% wrong.

Under the constitution, the House chooses the President if no candidate achieves 270 electoral votes.

So let's say the state legislatures in Arizona, PA, and Nevada (37 electoral votes) decide that they will not appoint electors at all, because the popular vote in the state was not conducted under the terms fixed by the legislation, and was altered by executive order or court order.

No one gets to 270.

Thus, it goes to the house. Now, while the House has more Democrats than Republicans, every state delegation gets a single vote. And Republicans, although a numerical minority in the House, control a majority of the state delegations.

Winner: Trump.

[Skjellyfetti]

How am I 100% wrong?

To be a 269/269 tie - Trump needs to win PA. Disagree? Do you think that's likely?

I said Trump wins if it goes to the HoR.

What are you exactly disagreeing with?

[JoltinJoe]

Yes, the Republicans will go nuclear. Bet on it. They'll steal the election. That's the fraud we should be worried about.

What are you guys talking about? What the heck is the nuclear option here? We knew it late on Tuesday that Trump was going to lose. None of this is terribly shocking at this point. But I don't know what you mean by going nuclear. Do we need to clean up our election process in the US? Absolutely. We're fine in elections where the margins are measured in the millions and all the error and fraud that could and probably is going on is overcome just by sheer volume, but where we have issues is when the margins are measured in the hundreds or just a few thousand. But I don't know how we retroactively fix that.

But this election is clear - Trump is out (not by the overwhelming repudiation Dems wanted, but that doesn't change that he's out), the Senate's likely going to stay GOP (especially with Biden in the WH), and the House is still Democrats but at a shockingly much lower margin than expected. Time to move on.

The nuclear option is Republican legislatures not appointing electors so that no candidate gets to 270, and throwing this to the House, which then elects Trump by a majority of House delegations.

It could happen. Nothing seems off the table any more.

[JoltinJoe]

How am I 100% wrong?

To be a 269/269 tie - Trump needs to win PA. Disagree? Do you think that's likely?

I said Trump wins if it goes to the HoR.

What are you exactly disagreeing with?

What do you mean by "winning" PA?

What if the PA state legislature (controlled by Republicans) just don't appoint the Biden electors? As explained above, there is nothing in law that requires the state legislature to appoint the electors for the winner of the popular vote.

So the PA legislature says our election laws required all mail-in ballots to be received by 5 p.m. on election day. Ballots outside that time frame were counted. So we are not going to appoint any electors because the election was not conducted according to our rules.

See Const., Art. II, Sec. 1, Cl. 2. And read the McPherson case cited above.

[JoltinJoe]

How am I 100% wrong?

To be a 269/269 tie - Trump needs to win PA. Disagree? Do you think that's likely?

I said Trump wins if it goes to the HoR.

What are you exactly disagreeing with?

Opps, I thought you wrote Biden wins if it goes to the House.