The Ukraine Crisis

[GannonFan]

Nothing was going to stop Putin's land grab, because nothing stopped him in the past. And no one is going to do anything about it. Russia will have firm control over the Donbas and there is nothing anyone is going to do about it and they'll likely be turned into puppet states.

As to what Putin will claim and what will be determined as a win/loss, meh. Of course he'll spin it as a win (think "mission accomplished" meme I mentioned in a post about Kremlin claims earlier). Could Putin have initially wanted to grab the whole Ukraine and failed? Probably. Is still making gains via a puppet state or two, and a severely diminished Ukraine that will likely have to be "neutral" (no NATO membership) going forward a win? Yep.

And no, none of the Putin narratives justifying the invasion are legitimate. This was a land grab against a weaker foe who put their eggs in the "West will back us" basket and all they got were guns and ammo. It is what it is.

So far guns and ammo have been enough.

You need to keep in mind that an example needs go be made of Russia to remind China that there is a price to pay when fucking around with a superpower.

Enough for what? I agree that Russia is suffering tremendously in their invasion, but if at the end of the day they still come out of this with carving up Ukraine a little bit more, on top of still holding on to the land grab they got away with in Crimea a few years ago, they'll still see this as a move in a positive direction (Russia doesn't seem to give a crap about people's lives, their own or the Ukrainians). Ukraine will still survive, just with less land than they had before, and now they'll be forced to swear off both NATO and the EU and hope that Russia, in the next 10 years, doesn't decide to take another sliver of territory. Ukraine must know by now that no one is coming to the rescue, they're fighting this on their own. China is certainly seeing the negative impacts of violent land grabs, but I don't have a lot of hope that Taiwan would fight as desperately as Ukraine and I think it would be a far quicker engagement. And I can't imagine that the world would be ready to economically sanction China like they have Russia. As others have said, Russia is like a 3rd world 7-Eleven with gas pumps. China still has their hands in a thousand more things we use everyday as compared to Russia.

[SDHornet]

Nothing was going to stop Putin's land grab, because nothing stopped him in the past. And no one is going to do anything about it. Russia will have firm control over the Donbas and there is nothing anyone is going to do about it and they'll likely be turned into puppet states.

As to what Putin will claim and what will be determined as a win/loss, meh. Of course he'll spin it as a win (think "mission accomplished" meme I mentioned in a post about Kremlin claims earlier). Could Putin have initially wanted to grab the whole Ukraine and failed? Probably. Is still making gains via a puppet state or two, and a severely diminished Ukraine that will likely have to be "neutral" (no NATO membership) going forward a win? Yep.

And no, none of the Putin narratives justifying the invasion are legitimate. This was a land grab against a weaker foe who put their eggs in the "West will back us" basket and all they got were guns and ammo. It is what it is.

So far guns and ammo have been enough.

You need to keep in mind that an example needs go be made of Russia to remind China that there is a price to pay when fucking around with a superpower.

I have no problem sending Ukraine whatever material they are willing to buy. Hard pass on boots on the ground and a no-fly zone.

[SDHornet]

So far guns and ammo have been enough.

You need to keep in mind that an example needs go be made of Russia to remind China that there is a price to pay when fucking around with a superpower.

Enough for what? I agree that Russia is suffering tremendously in their invasion, but if at the end of the day they still come out of this with carving up Ukraine a little bit more, on top of still holding on to the land grab they got away with in Crimea a few years ago, they'll still see this as a move in a positive direction (Russia doesn't seem to give a crap about people's lives, their own or the Ukrainians). Ukraine will still survive, just with less land than they had before, and now they'll be forced to swear off both NATO and the EU and hope that Russia, in the next 10 years, doesn't decide to take another sliver of territory. Ukraine must know by now that no one is coming to the rescue, they're fighting this on their own. China is certainly seeing the negative impacts of violent land grabs, but I don't have a lot of hope that Taiwan would fight as desperately as Ukraine and I think it would be a far quicker engagement. And I can't imagine that the world would be ready to economically sanction China like they have Russia. As others have said, Russia is like a 3rd world 7-Eleven with gas pumps. China still has their hands in a thousand more things we use everyday as compared to Russia.

Yep. Not buying the "Russia is losing" narrative if they come out ahead at the end of this.

[SDHornet]

Shocker.

[SDHornet]

Good thing those sanctions worked.

[houndawg]

So far guns and ammo have been enough.

You need to keep in mind that an example needs go be made of Russia to remind China that there is a price to pay when fucking around with a superpower.

Enough for what? I agree that Russia is suffering tremendously in their invasion, but if at the end of the day they still come out of this with carving up Ukraine a little bit more, on top of still holding on to the land grab they got away with in Crimea a few years ago, they'll still see this as a move in a positive direction (Russia doesn't seem to give a crap about people's lives, their own or the Ukrainians). Ukraine will still survive, just with less land than they had before, and now they'll be forced to swear off both NATO and the EU and hope that Russia, in the next 10 years, doesn't decide to take another sliver of territory. Ukraine must know by now that no one is coming to the rescue, they're fighting this on their own. China is certainly seeing the negative impacts of violent land grabs, but I don't have a lot of hope that Taiwan would fight as desperately as Ukraine and I think it would be a far quicker engagement. And I can't imagine that the world would be ready to economically sanction China like they have Russia. As others have said, Russia is like a 3rd world 7-Eleven with gas pumps. China still has their hands in a thousand more things we use everyday as compared to Russia.

I don't think thats anywhere near a done deal

[kalm]

Good thing those sanctions worked.

That’s part of the story.

[Bobcat]

Send in Simo Heyha, give him a month and turn your tvs off

[Skjellyfetti]

SDHornet and SeattleGriz sound exactly like the Russian troops

[SDHornet]

SDHornet and SeattleGriz sound exactly like the Russian troops

Might want to go back and re-read my posts. I've never claimed all Ukrainians are nazis, nor validated the invasion in any form. Any yes, there are nazi's in Ukraine, as the MSM has clearly pointed out over the years.

[SDHornet]

Good thing those sanctions worked.

That’s part of the story.

Unfortunately it is.

[Baldy]

Somebody help a brotha out. Can someone please give me a playbook or a scorecard?

1. For years, the never Trumpers, Leftists and the media have been saying that Trump was a Putin puppet, a Russian asset, and a Nazi. I'm old enough to remember the "punch a Nazi" campaign.
2. Now Putin goes full Antifa and invades to de-Nazify Ukraine.
3. The media, never Trumpers, and the Left are in full "I Support Ukraine" mode.
4. Is Trump a Nazi like his brothers in Ukraine or is he a Russian asset and Putin puppet?

I don't really see how he can be both...

You think Putin invaded Ukraine because, Nazis?

You and Felchy don't understand snarkiness too well.

[Winterborn]

You think Putin invaded Ukraine because, Nazis?

You and Felchy don't understand snarkiness too well.

Kalm should be an expert in snarky, as he does have a Ph.D in it on this board.

[Skjellyfetti]

[kalm]

You and Felchy don't understand snarkiness too well.

Kalm should be an expert in snarky, as he does have a Ph.D in it on this board.

Everyone once in awhile you make an accurate post.

[kalm]

I’m shocked SD or Seagriz didn’t make this post first.

[Winterborn]

Kalm should be an expert in snarky, as he does have a Ph.D in it on this board.

Everyone once in awhile you make an accurate post.

My goal is to be a broken clock and work up to being right twice a day.

[CID1990]

SDHornet and SeattleGriz sound exactly like the Russian troops

Might want to go back and re-read my posts. I've never claimed all Ukrainians are nazis, nor validated the invasion in any form. Any yes, there are nazi's in Ukraine, as the MSM has clearly pointed out over the years.

So what’s your point? You seem to want to make sure everybody knows that there are neo Nazis in Ukraine. So what?

There are neo Nazis in Ukraine, SD. Ukraine has a long history of them since WWII. You want to know who else has issues with white nationalist extremists? Russia. Russia openly harbors numerous REMVEs who are under threat of arrest, sanction, or surveillance in the West.

BTW… did you know that the United States still has a large swath of people who defend a rebellion which was rooted in preservation of an institution of enslavement of Africans?

Better?

Do any of these things have any relevance AT ALL to a sovereign nation’s right to self defense? Because the “I’m just pointing stuff out” klam line is awfully suspicious when it is in response to people pointing out Russian atrocities in Ukraine.


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[UNI88]

You and Felchy don't understand snarkiness too well.

Kalm should be an expert in snarky, as he does have a Ph.D in it on this board.

But like humor, he has trouble recognizing it.

[kalm]

Kalm should be an expert in snarky, as he does have a Ph.D in it on this board.

But like humor, he has trouble recognizing it.

I have no clue what you’re talking about.

[GannonFan]

Enough for what? I agree that Russia is suffering tremendously in their invasion, but if at the end of the day they still come out of this with carving up Ukraine a little bit more, on top of still holding on to the land grab they got away with in Crimea a few years ago, they'll still see this as a move in a positive direction (Russia doesn't seem to give a crap about people's lives, their own or the Ukrainians). Ukraine will still survive, just with less land than they had before, and now they'll be forced to swear off both NATO and the EU and hope that Russia, in the next 10 years, doesn't decide to take another sliver of territory. Ukraine must know by now that no one is coming to the rescue, they're fighting this on their own. China is certainly seeing the negative impacts of violent land grabs, but I don't have a lot of hope that Taiwan would fight as desperately as Ukraine and I think it would be a far quicker engagement. And I can't imagine that the world would be ready to economically sanction China like they have Russia. As others have said, Russia is like a 3rd world 7-Eleven with gas pumps. China still has their hands in a thousand more things we use everyday as compared to Russia.

I don't think thats anywhere a done deal

Who's going to eject the Russians from those areas? Those eastern provinces were already de facto under Russian control before this and now they'll be independent countries (recognized by Russia and maybe a few other Russian-friendly countries - heck, even China might recognize them). Russia has held onto Crimea for what, 7 years now, and no one is going to go in there and push them back out. I don't see any scenario at this point that doesn't end with Russia holding on to land they didn't have before this and Ukraine will be that much smaller. I don't see this as some glorious win for either side - Russia is bloodied and their significant military shortcomings are on public display, and Ukraine has seen millions of people flee the country (and many won't ever return, especially the better well-off ones), and parts of their country, if they still have it, are in ruins. And joining NATO so that this never happens again is apparently off the table. If Putin is still around in 5 years he's likely to go back at it again.

[Skjellyfetti]

I guess Gannon would have to clarify - but, I took his "carving up Ukraine a bit more" to mean expanding control outside of Donbas + Crimea.

I'd agree with houndy that it is not clear yet that Russia will be successful there. Maybe they hold onto Kherson and safeguard fresh water for Crimea... but, it will hardly be worth the blood, treasure, embarrassment, and reunification of the West, IMO.

[GannonFan]

I guess Gannon would have to clarify - but, I took his "carving up Ukraine a bit more" to mean expanding control outside of Donbas + Crimea.

I'd agree with houndy that it is not clear yet that Russia will be successful there. Maybe they hold onto Kherson and safeguard fresh water for Crimea... but, it will hardly be worth the blood, treasure, embarrassment, and reunification of the West, IMO.

I think he ends up with a little more than the Donbas - it's no sure thing, no doubt, but Ukraine will have to do the heavy lifting to force Russia out of places they hold now that they didn't hold before the war. And if reports are true of them just moving all the people out of areas then there may not be Ukrainians left in those places to put up a fight.

I agree, none of it's worth it. Beyond the loss of life which is tragic, the curtain has been lifted on the effectiveness of the Russian military and it's not a pretty picture. As for the reunification of the West, that lasts probably only as long as weapons are being fired. I'm not optimistic enough to think that people and countries won't be too slow in doing business with Russia again. Germany knew all of the issues with buying gas from Russia for at least a good decade now and they were only more willing to do so. Europe didn't bat an eyelash about Russia holding on to Crimea so I don't think they have the staying power to punish Russia forever about taking another slice of Ukraine. I still think the biggest issue is the loss of human capital for Ukraine - of all of those millions of refugees, how many will actually go back home once the fighting ends? It's always these brain drains that happen in war-torn countries that does the most long-term damage. The best and brightest of Ukraine may be ex-pats for years to come as a result of this, to Ukraine's detriment.

[CID1990]

Russian forces are retreating from northern Ukraine. This is not a redeployment. They are in retreat while under continual attack from UKR forces (classic Forrest “keeping up the skeer)

There are also pockets of Russians whose avenues of retreat have been cut off, in two areas north of Kiev.

It doesn’t appear to be a rout (yet) but this “redeployment” is not going well at all. Kiev and Chernihiv sieges are lifted.

For anyone wanting to hang on to the Russian line that any of this is going as planned, I’d simply ask - did Russia plan to lose all this equipment? Was that part of the cunning plan?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com


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[houndawg]

I don't think thats anywhere a done deal

Who's going to eject the Russians from those areas? Those eastern provinces were already de facto under Russian control before this and now they'll be independent countries (recognized by Russia and maybe a few other Russian-friendly countries - heck, even China might recognize them). Russia has held onto Crimea for what, 7 years now, and no one is going to go in there and push them back out. I don't see any scenario at this point that doesn't end with Russia holding on to land they didn't have before this and Ukraine will be that much smaller. I don't see this as some glorious win for either side - Russia is bloodied and their significant military shortcomings are on public display, and Ukraine has seen millions of people flee the country (and many won't ever return, especially the better well-off ones), and parts of their country, if they still have it, are in ruins. And joining NATO so that this never happens again is apparently off the table. If Putin is still around in 5 years he's likely to go back at it again.

Putin is the one driving the bus, all we can do is give Ukraine what it needs to keep killing Russians. He either finds a way to scrape what he stepped in off his shoe or has to prepare to do a Joe Stalin. He's been acting a fool for quite a while now and is long overdue for a smackdown and needs to be one that will raise Chinese eyebrows.