2020 General Election

[GannonFan]

So it basically comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina (probably in the order of most toss-up to least toss-up). Trump needs to win all of those to win (assumes he's not winning Georgia or Michigan). If he somehow wins the 16 votes in either Michigan or Georgia then it just gives him more elbow room. Hard to overcome losing Florida, but I don't think that's really a tossup.

[houndawg]

What do they have in common?

Neither pay taxes.

[AZGrizFan]

So it basically comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina (probably in the order of most toss-up to least toss-up). Trump needs to win all of those to win (assumes he's not winning Georgia or Michigan). If he somehow wins the 16 votes in either Michigan or Georgia then it just gives him more elbow room. Hard to overcome losing Florida, but I don't think that's really a tossup.

I don’t either. And I think he wins Georgia, and possibly Michigan.

[UNI88]

Lil' Junior thinks that Venezuela is going red?

[BDKJMU]

Predictit has moved AZ red, now predicts Biden 279, Trump 259.
https://www.predictit.org/

Edit: then AZ back to blue. So I guess tbat‘s their final prediction 290-248.

Edit, now AZ back in the red. I thought this thing was like a betting thing that stopped before the polls opened, but apparently not. Maybe it keeps going till the polls close.

[SeattleGriz]

Lil' Junior thinks that Venezuela is going red?

Apparently so. Took me a minute to figure why India was blue and then I realized there have been stories of Indian trolls trying to push the election to Joe.

[BDKJMU]

What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.

MAGA crowd in the 40 degree weather in Butler PA tonight:

Yesterday

Dem Lt. Governor and CNN Host Panic Over 57,000+ Trump Supporters At PA Rally: “The President is popular in Pennsylvania…I don’t care what the polls say."

Pennsylvania’s Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman, took to Twitter to sound the alarm about President Trump’s popularity in his state.

CNN host Alisyn Camerata shared an image of a tweet by the Lt. Governor that has now, curiously been deleted.

The tweet read: “The President is popular in PA. I don’t care what the polls say. With 700K ballots still out there, you need to BANK YOUR BALLOT.” The Democrat Lt. Governor implored Biden supporters to get their ballots to a drop box, a form of voting that has been widely criticized by Trump and other Republicans as a way to commit voter fraud.

Fetterman accompanied a photo of a recent Trump rally in Butler, PA that showed a massive crowd of Trump supporters.

“The President has undertaken an unprecedented engagement of small county PA through a level of barnstorming that I can’t recall another candidate has done before,” he told CNN host Alisyn Camerata.

Fetterman explained that the immense turnout at Trump’s rallies is cause for concern that the polls may not be accurate.

When the host asked if he believes the number of people who attended the Butler, PA crowd? He responded by telling her that the US Secret Service extimated the crowd at 57,000!....

https://100percentfedup.com/dem-lt-gove ... say-video/
To have a guy with no enthusiasm behind him, who can't draw squat to his rallies, be favored to win, and almost certainly going to win the popular vote, over a guy who draws rallies like the one above 3, 4, 5x a day, an rallies of supporters with literally thousands of boats or cars. I can't make sense of it. Surreal.

[UNI88]

Lil' Junior thinks that Venezuela is going red?

Apparently so. Took me a minute to figure why India was blue and then I realized there have been stories of Indian trolls trying to push the election to Joe.

Shouldn't Iran and Ukraine be blue too?

[Ibanez]

So the Russians ARE for Trump. I KNEW IT!

Spoiler: show

Donny is so funny. That guy...what a character.

[Ibanez]

So it basically comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina (probably in the order of most toss-up to least toss-up). Trump needs to win all of those to win (assumes he's not winning Georgia or Michigan). If he somehow wins the 16 votes in either Michigan or Georgia then it just gives him more elbow room. Hard to overcome losing Florida, but I don't think that's really a tossup.

He won PA by less than 1% in 2016. That's a tough margin to maintain in an election where the opposition isn't hated like Clinton was.

[Ibanez]

[GannonFan]

So it basically comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina (probably in the order of most toss-up to least toss-up). Trump needs to win all of those to win (assumes he's not winning Georgia or Michigan). If he somehow wins the 16 votes in either Michigan or Georgia then it just gives him more elbow room. Hard to overcome losing Florida, but I don't think that's really a tossup.

He won PA by less than 1% in 2016. That's a tough margin to maintain in an election where the opposition isn't hated like Clinton was.

Like I said, you don't live in PA. Biden isn't terribly liked in this state anyway (he's been a Delaware guy for more than half a century but still claims PA), and he dug himself more of a hole when he flubbed the whole fracking debate. I know fracking doesn't seem like a big deal to those outside of this state, but people in the non-Philly part of the state are sitting on a gold mine of fracking money and have been banking on that income for years. It's a really huge deal in most of the state. And to add to it, the governor really stirred up a lot of discontent with his handling of COVID and his inconsistent lockdown approach. There's a reason why he's been more hands off on COVID over the past couple of months (he didn't stand in the way of local decisions to reopen schools, he said no to high school athletics but then turned a blind eye when the state athletic association opened things up anyway, he even started letting people into Eagles and Steelers games) - the overly onerous restrictions were riling up Trump's base. I wouldn't doubt if the national party told him to ease up a little bit to calm the masses down. Whoever wins PA is going to win by a razor slim margin - it could come down to the 3k folks who are now allowed into an NFL game.

[Ibanez]

He won PA by less than 1% in 2016. That's a tough margin to maintain in an election where the opposition isn't hated like Clinton was.

Like I said, you don't live in PA. Biden isn't terribly liked in this state anyway (he's been a Delaware guy for more than half a century but still claims PA), and he dug himself more of a hole when he flubbed the whole fracking debate. I know fracking doesn't seem like a big deal to those outside of this state, but people in the non-Philly part of the state are sitting on a gold mine of fracking money and have been banking on that income for years. It's a really huge deal in most of the state. And to add to it, the governor really stirred up a lot of discontent with his handling of COVID and his inconsistent lockdown approach. There's a reason why he's been more hands off on COVID over the past couple of months (he didn't stand in the way of local decisions to reopen schools, he said no to high school athletics but then turned a blind eye when the state athletic association opened things up anyway, he even started letting people into Eagles and Steelers games) - the overly onerous restrictions were riling up Trump's base. I wouldn't doubt if the national party told him to ease up a little bit to calm the masses down. Whoever wins PA is going to win by a razor slim margin - it could come down to the 3k folks who are now allowed into an NFL game.

I appreciate the perspective.

[UNI88]

What a sensitive little snowflake.

[SeattleGriz]

Apparently so. Took me a minute to figure why India was blue and then I realized there have been stories of Indian trolls trying to push the election to Joe.

Shouldn't Iran and Ukraine be blue too?

Iran should be, but not sure about Ukraine. Political joke I'm not savvy enough to understand fully.

I just liked that China and India were blue.

[Ibanez]

2016 Penn County Map

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... 16.svg.png

Counties that swung from D to R
Erie - Trump won by less than 2k votes
Luzerne - Trump won by ~26k votes
Northampton - Trump by ~ 5,400 votes

~ 33k Democrats flipped in 2016.

Trump won 12/18 Congressional districts.

~218k votes went for 3rd party candidates. Libertarians got 146k of those. That would be 72k more voters for either Trump or Biden (based off 2016 data).

Today is going to be interesting...

[SDHornet]

So it basically comes down to PA, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina (probably in the order of most toss-up to least toss-up). Trump needs to win all of those to win (assumes he's not winning Georgia or Michigan). If he somehow wins the 16 votes in either Michigan or Georgia then it just gives him more elbow room. Hard to overcome losing Florida, but I don't think that's really a tossup.

He won PA by less than 1% in 2016. That's a tough margin to maintain in an election where the opposition isn't hated like Clinton was.

PA is going Biden, no way there aren't DNC folks in backrooms stuffing ballots as we speak.

[Ibanez]

He won PA by less than 1% in 2016. That's a tough margin to maintain in an election where the opposition isn't hated like Clinton was.

PA is going Biden, no way there aren't DNC folks in backrooms stuffing ballots as we speak.

Right?! I've voted at least 3x today. I even shaved my beard to avoid detection.

[GannonFan]

PA is going Biden, no way there aren't DNC folks in backrooms stuffing ballots as we speak.

Right?! I've voted at least 3x today. I even shaved my beard to avoid detection.

Did you vote once as Amish and then the rest as not Amish?

[SeattleGriz]

Now why would they say they can get to 270 without PA or Florida? What do they know?

[Ibanez]

Right?! I've voted at least 3x today. I even shaved my beard to avoid detection.

Did you vote once as Amish and then the rest as not Amish?

Full beard, mutton chops and then clean shaven.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SDHornet]

Ooff

[AZGrizFan]

So it would appear the Dem approach to voter suppression is to just “break” the voting machines in Trump strongholds. So far, two different locations in PA (both Trump strongholds), Georgia, and now Florida...all went strong Trump in ‘16. All having “technical problems causing long delays and ballots going unprocessed....and hmmm....all three are swing states that Biden MUST win to be competitive.....go figure.

I am SHOCKED.

[JohnStOnge]

Outstanding. Dr. Strangelove is on Turner Classic Movies. I have something to watch while I'm in "tell me when it's over" mode.

[JohnStOnge]

So it would appear the Dem approach to voter suppression is to just “break” the voting machines in Trump strongholds. So far, two different locations in PA (both Trump strongholds), Georgia, and now Florida...all went strong Trump in ‘16. All having “technical problems causing long delays and ballots going unprocessed....and hmmm....all three are swing states that Biden MUST win to be competitive.....go figure.

I am SHOCKED.

Just stop. You know damned well that Democrats don't engage in voter suppression like the Republicans do. There was a time. But in today's world the Republicans are the "bad guys" in that area.

Tell me, who controls the local governments in those areas you're talking about? Republicans or Democrats?