Not A Single Viable Challenger, Obama To Walk To Second Term

[89Hen]

Cap'n tosses a hunk of stink bait out there, and all the Rush-A-Publi-Conk-I-Toids just jump out on the bank and start flopping around like carp on a skillet.

Nice one Cappy!

Ummmm, yeah.

[BlueHen86]

It looks as if the economy is improving, if that trend continues then yes Obama is a lock. The bottom line is that it's people wallets that vote. I agree that governement debt and spending are a problem, but most voters don't care enough to make those their key voting issues.

The country absolutely deserves what it gets. We re-elected Dubya, we will re-elect Obama.

Where?

Here for one.

Even if you disagree, it doesn't matter. Things will have to get a lot worse than they are now for Obama to lose.

Just to be clear, I didn't vote for him in 2008 and probably won't vote for him in 2012, I just don't see him losing.

[LeadBolt]

Obama's job approval rating is still around 46%, as opposed to an approximate 50% disapproval rating. That is both one h@!! of a base for him to start from and for his opposition to start from. Given the power of incumbancy and his name recognition, at this point he will be hard to unseat. All he has to do is to hold his base and convince 1 in 24 unsure American voters that he is the lesser of evils...

[bulldog10jw]

Obama's job approval rating is still around 46%, as opposed to an approximate 50% disapproval rating. That is both one h@!! of a base for him to start from and for his opposition to start from. Given the power of incumbancy and his name recognition, at this point he will be hard to unseat. All he has to do is to hold his base and convince 1 in 24 unsure American voters that he is the lesser of evils...

Please do that math for me. I'm curious how you came up with 1 in 24

[LeadBolt]

46% approval + (1/24 =) 4.17% = 50.17%. I didn't try to figure out the electoral college, so no, it isn't all that accurate...

[bulldog10jw]

46% approval + (1/24 =) 4.17% = 50.17%. I didn't try to figure out the electoral college, so no, it isn't all that accurate...

Using your logic, wouldn't that mean that:

50% disapproval + 23/24 (95.8%) = 145.8% against OB ?

[youngterrier]

IF Obama were to be re-elected, I wouldn't be surprised if his arrogant self found a way to repeal presidential term limits so he could out-do FDR.

The problem is, I don't believe he's going to make it out of the freaking primary, much less beat whoever the GOP trots out.

Sarah in '12!!! (I hope. If Hilary wins the Donkey primary, it's all over for the GOP for the next 8 years, though, and perhaps the next 16, when she's followed by Chelsea. )

no. just no. Oh my God there is no way you are a real person.

[AZGrizFan]

Obama's job approval rating is still around 46%, as opposed to an approximate 50% disapproval rating. That is both one h@!! of a base for him to start from and for his opposition to start from. Given the power of incumbancy and his name recognition, at this point he will be hard to unseat. All he has to do is to hold his base and convince 1 in 24 unsure American voters that he is the lesser of evils...

Let's look inside those numbers, shall we?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presi ... enter.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gallup's latest poll has him at 43% approval rating, which is juuuuuust above his altime low of 41% he hit last week. Perhaps more troubling to Mr. Obama should be the fact that he now has a job approval rating below 50% in EVERY INCOME CATEGORY tracked by Gallup. Obama's bread and butter in the 2008 election, the lower income categories should be particularly worrisome to him. Obama won 68% of the Hispanic vote, but now only 47% think he's doing a good job. Hell, only 86% of the blacks think he's doing a good job (not that they're going to change their vote in 2012....but it might mean the difference between 13,000,000 black votes and 10,000,000, which could sway an election).

Many, many facets of Obama's "base" are moving away from their religious-like support of him and his programs. If the other side can come up with a marketable option and things don't improve markedly from where we stand now, I can easily see Obama losing.

[AZGrizFan]

46% approval + (1/24 =) 4.17% = 50.17%. I didn't try to figure out the electoral college, so no, it isn't all that accurate...

Using your logic, wouldn't that mean that:

50% disapproval + 23/24 (95.8%) = 145.8% against OB ?

That's some W&M math you're doin' there, bulldog.

[AZGrizFan]

Where?

Here for one.

Even if you disagree, it doesn't matter. Things will have to get a lot worse than they are now for Obama to lose.

Just to be clear, I didn't vote for him in 2008 and probably won't vote for him in 2012, I just don't see him losing.

You might be the first person I've ever heard utter that phrase "I didn't vote for him in '08 and I PROBABLY won't in 2012"....

[bulldog10jw]

Using your logic, wouldn't that mean that:

50% disapproval + 23/24 (95.8%) = 145.8% against OB ?

That's some W&M math you're doin' there, bulldog.

Just following his, uh, um, logic?

[Skjellyfetti]

Let's look inside those numbers, shall we?

Let's look at the more important numbers (electoral votes) since the Presidential election isn't determined by popular vote, shall we?

Obama won the 2008 election with 365 electoral votes. That's a huge margin. He only needs 270 to win.

He could lose Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and still win if he holds the rest of the 2008 blue states.

Another scenario which might be even more of a shock... he could lose BOTH Florida AND Ohio along with Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia... and still win.

The electoral math is very much in favor of Obama for 2012.

[AZGrizFan]

Let's look inside those numbers, shall we?

Let's look at the more important numbers (electoral votes) since the Presidential election isn't determined by popular vote, shall we?

Obama won the 2008 election with 365 electoral votes. That's a huge margin. He only needs 270 to win.

He could lose Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and still win fairly comfortably if he holds the rest of the 2008 blue states.

Another scenario which might be even more of a shock... he could lose BOTH Florida AND Ohio along with Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia... and still win.

The electoral math is very much in favor of Obama for 2012.

http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics ... kdown.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Barack Obama would be in an extremely tight race.

Of course, this assessment comes on the heels of a Republican wave in the 2010 midterms. With a better political climate and a relatively weak opponent, Obama could well win reelection by as strong a margin as he did in 2008, when he won the electoral college by a 365-173 vote.

His chances today, however, hinge on 104 electoral votes, or the 10 states rated tossups by Governing's baseline analysis of the 2012 contest. The 10 states include Colorado (9 electoral votes), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10) and one of Maine's four electoral votes. (Unlike all other states, Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the winner of each of the state's congressional districts.)

The good news for Obama is that he won all of these states in 2008. The bad news is that the GOP did very well in many of these states in 2010, leaving the party primed to retake some of this territory.

Comparing which states could conceivably flip from their 2008 allegiance is instructive. Several states Obama won that year are now in the GOP camp. Indiana and one district in Nebraska fall into our likely Republican category, which means they're not really competitive, while North Carolina and Virginia, two other states that backed Obama, currently reside in the lean Republican category, which does count as competitive, but which leans modestly to the GOP.

By contrast, we see one state won by McCain in 2008 that is vulnerable -- barely -- to an Obama takeover: Missouri.

Keep on keepin' on, KY.

[JohnStOnge]

The unfortunate thing about our situation is that anybody who would suggest doing what needs to be done is not going to be a viable candidate. Not that there's anybody like that in the field. But maybe there would be if that wasn't the truth.

[BlueHen86]

Here for one.

Even if you disagree, it doesn't matter. Things will have to get a lot worse than they are now for Obama to lose.

Just to be clear, I didn't vote for him in 2008 and probably won't vote for him in 2012, I just don't see him losing.

You might be the first person I've ever heard utter that phrase "I didn't vote for him in '08 and I PROBABLY won't in 2012"....

Anything is possible.

If my choices are Obama and Palin, and Palin looks like she has a chance to win, I'm voting for Obama.

[catamount man]

http://www.greenvilleonline.com/article ... -in-nation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's from January, but the trend here in SC has only gotten better. My company is hiring and we have had 5 straight months of the best months in company history. It still is slow, but it's getting better. The SAD reality is the millions of deadbeats who are gonna milk "the economy" excuse for all it's worth. Dealing with the public, I see it on a daily basis.

[FargoBison]

Mitt Romney tops weak Barack Obama in New Hampshire, poll shows...

Mitt Romney is the only Republican candidate leading President Obama in New Hampshire, according to a new poll from Dartmouth College's Nelson A. Rockefeller Center.
Continue Reading

In the center’s fourth “State of the State” survey, Romney tops Obama in a general election match-up by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent.

No other Republican comes close to that mark: Obama leads Mike Huckabee by 8 points, Tim Pawlenty by 16, Haley Barbour by 19, Donald Trump by 22 and Sarah Palin by a yawning 27-point margin.

Romney’s stronger performance comes from his appeal to independent and undeclared voters, who make up a hugely influential bloc in New Hampshire’s primary and general elections.

From the same poll...

In one telling bit of data, the poll tested former Secretary of State Colin Powell as a Republican presidential candidate and found that he would defeat Obama by 20 points, 48 percent to 28 percent.

Powell has not expressed an interest in the presidential race and endorsed Obama’s campaign in 2008. But Shaiko said that he included Powell in the survey to see how voters would respond to a new name associated with strong leadership qualities.

The takeaway from Powell’s performance, Shaiko suggested, is that “people are looking” to fill a void in the field.

“That tells me that if someone comes along and actually does have some leadership qualities, that would be attractive to people,” Shaiko said. “Powell’s sort of that empty vessel.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/04 ... z1KHz5TyWe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Mitt Romney tops weak Barack Obama in New Hampshire, poll shows...

Mitt Romney is the only Republican candidate leading President Obama in New Hampshire, according to a new poll from Dartmouth College's Nelson A. Rockefeller Center.
Continue Reading

In the center’s fourth “State of the State” survey, Romney tops Obama in a general election match-up by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent.

No other Republican comes close to that mark: Obama leads Mike Huckabee by 8 points, Tim Pawlenty by 16, Haley Barbour by 19, Donald Trump by 22 and Sarah Palin by a yawning 27-point margin.

Romney’s stronger performance comes from his appeal to independent and undeclared voters, who make up a hugely influential bloc in New Hampshire’s primary and general elections.

From the same poll...

In one telling bit of data, the poll tested former Secretary of State Colin Powell as a Republican presidential candidate and found that he would defeat Obama by 20 points, 48 percent to 28 percent.

Powell has not expressed an interest in the presidential race and endorsed Obama’s campaign in 2008. But Shaiko said that he included Powell in the survey to see how voters would respond to a new name associated with strong leadership qualities.

The takeaway from Powell’s performance, Shaiko suggested, is that “people are looking” to fill a void in the field.

“That tells me that if someone comes along and actually does have some leadership qualities, that would be attractive to people,” Shaiko said. “Powell’s sort of that empty vessel.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/04 ... z1KHz5TyWe" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

powell has been winning trial heats since 1992... given that winnie powell doesn't want him to run - seems unlikely that he will run

[TwinTownBisonFan]

since these things aren't national contests anyway... we can look at this:



state-by-state polling and forecasting from Larry Sabato... who, i find passable as an analyst.

I think this is a pretty accurate portrait of where we stand. Obama vs. GOP field...

what it tells us, it's not open and shut. there is a window for the gop - obama would need about 23 EV's from the toss ups (also could pick up one ev from nebraska like he did in 08)

he's in a decent, if vulnerable position. the real issue for him becomes who the gop puts up. as i've said repeatedly, nobody in the field right now does much to change this map to benefit the gop... Mitch Daniels would change this... but he's not getting past the primary. and before someone mentions pawlenty putting minnesota in the red... not too likely...

[TheDancinMonarch]

I believe that the ticket of Norm Peterson and Cliff Clavin would win a resounding victory over Obama-Biden. I mean seriously, in a debate would anyone notice any difference between Clavin and Biden? And at the top of the ticket who could compete with the picture of Peterson standing at the tap offering to give away Sammies beer. Certainly not Obama with his "looking down his nose at the stupid electorate" bearing.

[LeadBolt]

I believe that the ticket of Norm Peterson and Cliff Clavin would win a resounding victory over Obama-Biden. I mean seriously, in a debate would anyone notice any difference between Clavin and Biden? And at the top of the ticket who could compete with the picture of Peterson standing at the tap offering to give away Sammies beer. Certainly not Obama with his "looking down his nose at the stupid electorate" bearing.

I agree with you theat Norm and Cliff could win, unfortunately, I don't think we will be able to get them to run...

It would appear that the opponent best suited to knock off the Big 0, would be one that can take CO, FL, IN, NC, OH, & VA; while holding AZ, GA, MO & TX.

[AZGrizFan]

You might be the first person I've ever heard utter that phrase "I didn't vote for him in '08 and I PROBABLY won't in 2012"....

Anything is possible.

If my choices are Obama and Palin, and Palin looks like she has a chance to win, I'm voting for Obama.

Uh.....so am I.

[Cap'n Cat]

Cap'n tosses a hunk of stink bait out there, and all the Rush-A-Publi-Conk-I-Toids just jump out on the bank and start flopping around like carp on a skillet.

Nice one Cappy!

'Specially young grizzaholic.

[Cap'n Cat]

Obama's job approval rating is still around 46%, as opposed to an approximate 50% disapproval rating. That is both one h@!! of a base for him to start from and for his opposition to start from. Given the power of incumbancy and his name recognition, at this point he will be hard to unseat. All he has to do is to hold his base and convince 1 in 24 unsure American voters that he is the lesser of evils...

Let's look inside those numbers, shall we?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presi ... enter.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Gallup's latest poll has him at 43% approval rating, which is juuuuuust above his altime low of 41% he hit last week. Perhaps more troubling to Mr. Obama should be the fact that he now has a job approval rating below 50% in EVERY INCOME CATEGORY tracked by Gallup. Obama's bread and butter in the 2008 election, the lower income categories should be particularly worrisome to him. Obama won 68% of the Hispanic vote, but now only 47% think he's doing a good job. Hell, only 86% of the blacks think he's doing a good job (not that they're going to change their vote in 2012....but it might mean the difference between 13,000,000 black votes and 10,000,000, which could sway an election).

Many, many facets of Obama's "base" are moving away from their religious-like support of him and his programs. If the other side can come up with a marketable option and things don't improve markedly from where we stand now, I can easily see Obama losing.

Polls are situational,they change every minute and they're like assholes.........everyone has one, except for a few jillion Conks who have been stopped up since '92. Remember that glorious year?????

[houndawg]

Cap'n tosses a hunk of stink bait out there, and all the Rush-A-Publi-Conk-I-Toids just jump out on the bank and start flopping around like carp on a skillet.

Nice one Cappy!

'Specially young grizzaholic.

Like a chicken on a junebug......