Why hasn't the GOP collapsed

[JohnStOnge]

I think the Republican Party does have a big problem. I think that close to a majority if not a majority of Republicans don't want Trump. They wish he was not the nominee. But there is this large block of nut jobs...probably something like 40%...that they have to deal with now. They can't just tell them to take a hike because they need them to win. But they've now shown that they are willing to very enthusiastically support a total abomination. They've got a bunch of people that no sensible Party would want to have as part of it that they can't do without.

Very bad situation for them.

[Ibanez]

I think the Republican Party does have a big problem. I think that close to a majority if not a majority of Republicans don't want Trump. They wish he was not the nominee. But there is this large block of nut jobs...probably something like 40%...that they have to deal with now. They can't just tell them to take a hike because they need them to win. But they've now shown that they are willing to very enthusiastically support a total abomination. They've got a bunch of people that no sensible Party would want to have as part of it that they can't do without.

Very bad situation for them.

That majority of Republicans should've done a better job of coalescing behind a better candidate. Trump and Cruz weren't the best. They were horrible choices. Perhaps the GOP shouldn't have allowed 18 people to run. They presented the party as a fractured mess from the beginning. They should've been a bit more discerning. The primaries were treated like a clown car.

[BDKJMU]

Any odds on Trump not making it to the general?

Lower than Clinton's..

[Skjellyfetti]

After Trump gets curb-stomped in the general election by the most vulnerable candidate the Democrat party has ran in a while, no will even think of running like Trump any time soon.

I'm not so sure about that.

Even if he gets curb-stomped in the general... He still won the Republican nomination fairly handily. In that sense he was pretty successful and gives someone else a template.

And, I don't see 4 years of a Hillary presidency moderating Trump's base. If anything... 2020 could up the ante.

[JohnStOnge]

The Republican Party is now in a situation wherein the sensible people within it are justifiably embarrassed by what a plurality of Republican primary voters just did.

[kalm]

I think the Republican Party does have a big problem. I think that close to a majority if not a majority of Republicans don't want Trump. They wish he was not the nominee. But there is this large block of nut jobs...probably something like 40%...that they have to deal with now. They can't just tell them to take a hike because they need them to win. But they've now shown that they are willing to very enthusiastically support a total abomination. They've got a bunch of people that no sensible Party would want to have as part of it that they can't do without.

AKA...the Republican base....

[UNI88]

Among the many reasons I'm not voting for Trump is exactly that....his "Make America Great Again" slogan implies we're not great now....I disagree. I think we're good, we're the greatest country on the planet, but could be a whole lot better...And I think the best person to help get us there is Gary Johnson (of those running).

So 93 is right and men with testicles are going to vote for Johnson rather than following all of the lemmings and voting for Trump.

And Houndie is right as well, Trump came in and stole all of the Redneck Republicans out from under the establishments' noses. That's what happens when you make hollow promises to bring them under your tent and then take them for granted. It's not their fault for supporting Trump, it's the establishments fault for not listening to them.

The hard-core right-wing republicans also have themselves to blame in that they've driven away the moderates. If you're not a tea partier you're a RINO and not really Republican. Works great in Texas but you're going to have a hard time getting a Republican elected to statewide office in Illinois with that kind of litmus test. It's also going to make it nearly impossible to actually work with the other party and compromise occasionally like Reagan and Tip O'Neill used to do.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for the Republican Party.

[GannonFan]

Among the many reasons I'm not voting for Trump is exactly that....his "Make America Great Again" slogan implies we're not great now....I disagree. I think we're good, we're the greatest country on the planet, but could be a whole lot better...And I think the best person to help get us there is Gary Johnson (of those running).

So 93 is right and men with testicles are going to vote for Johnson rather than following all of the lemmings and voting for Trump.

And Houndie is right as well, Trump came in and stole all of the Redneck Republicans out from under the establishments' noses. That's what happens when you make hollow promises to bring them under your tent and then take them for granted. It's not their fault for supporting Trump, it's the establishments fault for not listening to them.

The hard-core right-wing republicans also have themselves to blame in that they've driven away the moderates. If you're not a tea partier you're a RINO and not really Republican. Works great in Texas but you're going to have a hard time getting a Republican elected to statewide office in Illinois with that kind of litmus test. It's also going to make it nearly impossible to actually work with the other party and compromise occasionally like Reagan and Tip O'Neill used to do.

It will be interesting to see what the future holds for the Republican Party.

They could go all Democratic and take the choice away from the electorate. That's an option, just let the party leadership decide.

[Wedgebuster]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/upsho ... .html?_r=0

Trump dropping out before the general election 10%.

Clinton winning the general election 73%.

[CID1990]

If Trump drops out there will suddenly be a lot of exposed Hillarybots who will have to justify their votes with something ng other than "she's never t as bad as Trump"

frankly I am hoping he drops out


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[houndawg]

If Trump drops out there will suddenly be a lot of exposed Hillarybots who will have to justify their votes with something ng other than "she's never t as bad as Trump"

frankly I am hoping he drops out


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I think the odds are longer that he doesn't quit. He's been a quitter all his life and beside that, his brand is totally fvcked when he loses by one of the largest margins since Walter Mondale. Its glaringly obvious that he wants no part of being President and wants to get out, probably using the entirely believable excuse that the fix is in on the voting machines.

[BDKJMU]

If Trump drops out there will suddenly be a lot of exposed Hillarybots who will have to justify their votes with something ng other than "she's never t as bad as Trump"

frankly I am hoping he drops out


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If that happened who would be the conk candidate? (Didn't bother reading link)..

[Ivytalk]

If the Republicans survived Alf Landon and Barry Goldwater, they'll survive Trump.

[Chizzang]

Republicans talking about the republican base has become fascinating...
For the last 20 years Democrats have had to take the verbal scoldings from the GOP
because of stupid soccer moms and no nothing single issue black voters...

Republicans like JSO loved to announce that Democrat voters were "dumber" collectively than republicans

So 12 months ago on this site I told you pompous f*ckers that TRUMP would easily win the nomination
And I got laughed at - well here we are and half you nimrods act like you knew it all along

[CID1990]

Republicans talking about the republican base has become fascinating...
For the last 20 years Democrats have had to take the verbal scoldings from the GOP
because of stupid soccer moms and no nothing single issue black voters...

Republicans like JSO loved to announce that Democrat voters were "dumber" collectively than republicans

So 12 months ago on this site I told you pompous f*ckers that TRUMP would easily win the nomination
And I got laughed at - well here we are and half you nimrods act like you knew it all along

I didn't know it all along - I was sure he would not get the nomination and said so (early on I was thinking Walker would be the guy)


I discounted/overlooked/overestimated GOP primary voters (and DEM primary voters too) - only 9% of likely general election voters actually voted in the primaries. That means either one thing or the other with the GOP _ it was either the absolute right wing fringe that voted for Trump, or it was the "burn it the fvck down" vote (There's probably some overlap with those two)

but let's don't pretend that there are not LARGE numbers of low information, meme-driven voters distributed on the right and the left. Those voters are a given vote for their respective parties.

The difference is the semi-informed, populist voter on each side. The Democratic Party has done a MUCH better job than the GOP of keeping those voters from rebelling. But rest assured- a Clinton presidency is going to be as damaging to the Democratic Party as the Obama presidency was to the GOP. Bernie Sanders' surge in the primaries was as much a rebuke of Obama as is was of Clinton.

Wait until Hillary governs like the statist neocon she is...

[Ibanez]

Republicans talking about the republican base has become fascinating...
For the last 20 years Democrats have had to take the verbal scoldings from the GOP
because of stupid soccer moms and no nothing single issue black voters...

Republicans like JSO loved to announce that Democrat voters were "dumber" collectively than republicans

So 12 months ago on this site I told you pompous f*ckers that TRUMP would easily win the nomination
And I got laughed at - well here we are and half you nimrods act like you knew it all along

I didn't know it all along - I was sure he would not get the nomination and said so (early on I was thinking Walker would be the guy)


I discounted/overlooked/overestimated GOP primary voters (and DEM primary voters too) - only 9% of likely general election voters actually voted in the primaries.

This is me. I didn't expect Trump to clinch it like he did. I thought for sure his personality would turn off so many people.

But again, the GOP field was a circus. 18 people and maybe 2 or 3 should've been the only ones running.

[SDHornet]

Wait until Hillary governs like the statist neocon she is...

No, the leftists will still be ok with that, they'll just spin it as some kind of advanced experience or something. Just look at the spin they put on her W-like foreign policy as SOS.

[GannonFan]

Wait until Hillary governs like the statist neocon she is...

No, the leftists will still be ok with that, they'll just spin it as some kind of advanced experience or something. Just look at the spin they put on her W-like foreign policy as SOS.

I don't think the Democrats greatly care what is done and how government is run, as long as the person doing it is a listed Democrat. Ideas and policies are minor distractions, it's just about winning.

[SDHornet]

No, the leftists will still be ok with that, they'll just spin it as some kind of advanced experience or something. Just look at the spin they put on her W-like foreign policy as SOS.

I don't think the Democrats greatly care what is done and how government is run, as long as the person doing it is a listed Democrat. Ideas and policies are minor distractions, it's just about winning.

Nailed it.

[kalm]

No, the leftists will still be ok with that, they'll just spin it as some kind of advanced experience or something. Just look at the spin they put on her W-like foreign policy as SOS.

I don't think the Democrats greatly care what is done and how government is run, as long as the person doing it is a listed Democrat. Ideas and policies are minor distractions, it's just about winning.

Agreed, and your describing both sides you conk.



(See Republican spending, Medicare par D, War on Drugs)

[GannonFan]

I don't think the Democrats greatly care what is done and how government is run, as long as the person doing it is a listed Democrat. Ideas and policies are minor distractions, it's just about winning.

Agreed, and your describing both sides you conk.



(See Republican spending, Medicare par D, War on Drugs)

I agree, and I've said so over and over again for multiple years. Did you think otherwise?

[JohnStOnge]

Here's another good one:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinio ... story.html

The Republican guy who wrote the speech for the Benghazi Mom who spoke at the Republican convention pens an op ed saying he can't vote for Trump and may vote for Clinton.

In fact, I personally drafted the speech of the "Benghazi mom," Patricia Smith. In that speech, I concluded with the following line: "If Hillary Clinton can't give us the truth, why should we give her the presidency?" As a political speechwriter, that was something of a home run moment for me. The New Yorker called the speech "the weaponization of grief."

But weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party's nominee.

[Ibanez]

Here's another good one:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinio ... story.html

The Republican guy who wrote the speech for the Benghazi Mom who spoke at the Republican convention pens an op ed saying he can't vote for Trump and may vote for Clinton.

In fact, I personally drafted the speech of the "Benghazi mom," Patricia Smith. In that speech, I concluded with the following line: "If Hillary Clinton can't give us the truth, why should we give her the presidency?" As a political speechwriter, that was something of a home run moment for me. The New Yorker called the speech "the weaponization of grief."

But weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party's nominee.

What's the story here? He's a political speechwriter. He was paid for a job. Him voting for Clinton doesn't make him a hypocrite. I work for Bank of America, am I a hypocrite b/c I don't bank with them?

[houndawg]

Wait until Hillary governs like the statist neocon she is...

No, the leftists will still be ok with that, they'll just spin it as some kind of advanced experience or something. Just look at the spin they put on her W-like foreign policy as SOS.

Oh no, my brown brother, you will only hear that from the donk true believers. Take it from the guy who saw Bernie coming tried to tell you: Hillary will be getting plenty of pushback from the left and independents.

[JohnStOnge]

For the last 20 years Democrats have had to take the verbal scoldings from the GOP
because of stupid soccer moms and no nothing single issue black voters...

Republicans like JSO loved to announce that Democrat voters were "dumber" collectively than republicans

I never thought that "soccer moms" were a Democrat constituency. Married White women...middle class suburban types that I think we're mostly talking about when we say "soccer moms," have consistently voted majority Republican. In fact most of the time White women in general have voted majority Republican. They only time they voted majority Democrat since the onset of exit polling was when they voted for Bill Clinton. The majority of White women voted against Obama both times.

I'll be really interested in seeing what the exit polling shows that might lend insight into how the "dumber" thing goes this time. I think it's different. Like for instance right now the polling is showing that college educated White voters favor Clinton. My understanding is that if Clinton wins the majority of the college educated White vote that'll be the first time that's happened since the advent of exit polling.

I think when it comes to looking at proxies for IQ this election is going to be unusual. Like for instance I won't be surprised if you don't see the normal pattern whereby people are more likely to vote Republican as income rises. And, while most of the time you see a situation where college educated people are close to evenly spit, I think we could see Clinton winning that breakdown by a significant margin.

And when it comes to post grads: Most of the time it's a modest but solid Democrat edge. Something around 55-45%. This time I won't be surprised if it's something like 70-30% Democrat.