Ready for almost 7 more years?

[BDKJMU]

"Tuesday, February 27, 2018

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

By comparison, President Obama earned 43% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency...."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... rack_feb27

[Silenoz]

I'm confused, I thought polls were fake news

[JohnStOnge]

I'm confused, I thought polls were fake news

The polls are not fake news. I've been through that with you guys before. The polls did not make Clinton a lock prior to the election. They were saying the electoral college was too close to call.

Having said that, I'll say that the Rasmussen poll is an outlier and is not considered one of the better polls.

If you look at the overall body of polling Trump is still the most unpopular President at this point of his Presidency in the history of polling.

[Winterborn]

To expand on that, Harris has no shot in hell. The Dems would be stupid to run a traditional candidate against Trump. Biden is probably the only person that could run and potentially win. But they don't have a deep bench. I can't think of any governors that would be good candidates.

I would think a celebrity would give it a shot. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson?

[CID1990]

If the Dems can keep the gun and racial hysteria going through the midterms Trump wont actually have to campaign at all


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

"Tuesday, February 27, 2018

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

By comparison, President Obama earned 43% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency...."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... rack_feb27

And Rasmussen is about 8 points higher than all the other polls on average.

[kalm]

I'm actually really curious to see what joker the Dems march out since I'm sure candidates from both parties will only continue to get more ridiculous and polarizing going forward

Actually I'm even more curious to see what the Conks do in 2024...

If Biden is still alive he's got the inside track to be the Dem nominee. Sanders is tainted goods now that his Russian backing has come to the surface (who'da thunk it that Mueller's indictment a few weeks ago would've ended up hurting Bernie the most?), Warren doesn't look up for it, and there's almost literally no one else. Biden by default. Watching him and Trump debate will be fun - somebody could actually throw a punch in that debate.

Wait...you actually bought Sander’s Russian collusion?

[Chizzang]

If Biden is still alive he's got the inside track to be the Dem nominee. Sanders is tainted goods now that his Russian backing has come to the surface (who'da thunk it that Mueller's indictment a few weeks ago would've ended up hurting Bernie the most?), Warren doesn't look up for it, and there's almost literally no one else. Biden by default. Watching him and Trump debate will be fun - somebody could actually throw a punch in that debate.

Wait...you actually bought Sander’s Russian collusion?

Wait for it...

and Jill Stein





(I sh!t you not)

[JohnStOnge]

"Tuesday, February 27, 2018

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

By comparison, President Obama earned 43% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency...."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... rack_feb27

And Rasmussen is about 8 points higher than all the other polls on average.

Actually the RCP average as I type is -13.4 so Rasmussen has his Approval - Disapproval number 11.4 percentage points higher than the average of other polls. The current range of the other polls is -7 through -22. And though it's been noted that its point estimate was right on for Trump vs. Clinton it was 4.9 points off for Romney vs. Obama in 2012. The final Rasmussen poll for that one was Trump by 1 and the actual outcome was Obama by 3.9. 538 has it rated C+ on a F through A+ rating system of polls. No real reason to give it more credibility than any of the other polls and all of the other polls that I know of show him under water job approval wise.

Some of the difference is that Rasmussen is trying to use "Likely Voters" so it's not a "hard" characterization, such as "Registered Voters," like the other polls are. But the others things to remember is that the Rasmussen poll is just not a highly rated poll and that it's got the 4th strongest Republican bias among over 300 polls that 538 rates.

[Baldy]

And Rasmussen is about 8 points higher than all the other polls on average.

Actually the RCP average as I type is -13.4 so Rasmussen has his Approval - Disapproval number 11.4 percentage points higher than the average of other polls. The current range of the other polls is -7 through -22. And though it's been noted that its point estimate was right on for Trump vs. Clinton it was 4.9 points off for Romney vs. Obama in 2012. The final Rasmussen poll for that one was Trump by 1 and the actual outcome was Obama by 3.9. 538 has it rated C+ on a F through A+ rating system of polls. No real reason to give it more credibility than any of the other polls and all of the other polls that I know of show him under water job approval wise.

Some of the difference is that Rasmussen is trying to use "Likely Voters" so it's not a "hard" characterization, such as "Registered Voters," like the other polls are. But the others things to remember is that the Rasmussen poll is just not a highly rated poll and that it's got the 4th strongest Republican bias among over 300 polls that 538 rates.

It doesn't matter what a far left biased 538 says. Rasmussen is more accurate because it uses likely voters. The only reason the ignorant believe Rasmussen has a Republican bias is because they are more accurate and Republicans win more elections.

[Ibanez]

"Tuesday, February 27, 2018

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

By comparison, President Obama earned 43% approval on this date in the second year of his presidency...."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... rack_feb27

And Rasmussen is about 8 points higher than all the other polls on average.

TRIGGER WARNING!


JSO...DON'T LOOK!

[Ibanez]

And Rasmussen is about 8 points higher than all the other polls on average.

Actually the RCP average as I type is -13.4 so Rasmussen has his Approval - Disapproval number 11.4 percentage points higher than the average of other polls. The current range of the other polls is -7 through -22. And though it's been noted that its point estimate was right on for Trump vs. Clinton it was 4.9 points off for Romney vs. Obama in 2012. The final Rasmussen poll for that one was Trump by 1 and the actual outcome was Obama by 3.9. 538 has it rated C+ on a F through A+ rating system of polls. No real reason to give it more credibility than any of the other polls and all of the other polls that I know of show him under water job approval wise.

Some of the difference is that Rasmussen is trying to use "Likely Voters" so it's not a "hard" characterization, such as "Registered Voters," like the other polls are. But the others things to remember is that the Rasmussen poll is just not a highly rated poll and that it's got the 4th strongest Republican bias among over 300 polls that 538 rates.

Damnit...

[bluehenbillk]

I wish Trump would focus less on the last election & more on his current term, at least for now.

I'd think Biden would defeat Trump as of today.

2020 still a long way off.

[Gil Dobie]

To expand on that, Harris has no shot in hell. The Dems would be stupid to run a traditional candidate against Trump. Biden is probably the only person that could run and potentially win. But they don't have a deep bench. I can't think of any governors that would be good candidates.

I would think a celebrity would give it a shot. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson?

He's very popular right now.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I would think a celebrity would give it a shot. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson?

He's very popular right now.

Well he has more credentials and political experience than Oprah or Obamas linebacker wife

[Ibanez]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-camp ... -to-felon/

The political strategist and online guru who was named President Donald Trump's 2020 campaign manager Tuesday has a close financial relationship with a penny-stock firm with a questionable history that includes longstanding ties to a convicted fraudster, according to an Associated Press investigation.

Brad Parscale, who played a key role in Mr. Trump's 2016 election victory, signed a $10 million deal in August to sell his digital marketing company to CloudCommerce Inc. As part of the deal, Parscale currently serves as a member of California-based company's management team.

[GannonFan]

If Biden is still alive he's got the inside track to be the Dem nominee. Sanders is tainted goods now that his Russian backing has come to the surface (who'da thunk it that Mueller's indictment a few weeks ago would've ended up hurting Bernie the most?), Warren doesn't look up for it, and there's almost literally no one else. Biden by default. Watching him and Trump debate will be fun - somebody could actually throw a punch in that debate.

Wait...you actually bought Sander’s Russian collusion?

I don't buy any collusion, but I thought it was funny that the Russians seemed to be pro Bernie. And yes, pro Jill Stein. If we'd put up better candidates, then it wouldn't matter what the Russians do.

[css75]

Just curious, JSO, are we going to read the same he is the most unqualified person ever rhetoric for the next 7 years?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[89Hen]

Are you guys serious about Biden?

phpBB [video]

[Ivytalk]

Are you guys serious about Biden?

phpBB [video]

Biden puts out this image of himself as the soberest Irishman ever. Not true?

[89Hen]

Are you guys serious about Biden?

phpBB [video]

Biden puts out this image of himself as the soberest Irishman ever. Not true?

[BDKJMU]

Actually the RCP average as I type is -13.4 so Rasmussen has his Approval - Disapproval number 11.4 percentage points higher than the average of other polls. The current range of the other polls is -7 through -22. And though it's been noted that its point estimate was right on for Trump vs. Clinton it was 4.9 points off for Romney vs. Obama in 2012. The final Rasmussen poll for that one was Trump by 1 and the actual outcome was Obama by 3.9. 538 has it rated C+ on a F through A+ rating system of polls. No real reason to give it more credibility than any of the other polls and all of the other polls that I know of show him under water job approval wise.

Some of the difference is that Rasmussen is trying to use "Likely Voters" so it's not a "hard" characterization, such as "Registered Voters," like the other polls are. But the others things to remember is that the Rasmussen poll is just not a highly rated poll and that it's got the 4th strongest Republican bias among over 300 polls that 538 rates.

It doesn't matter what a far left biased 538 says. Rasmussen is more accurate because it uses likely voters. The only reason the ignorant believe Rasmussen has a Republican bias is because they are more accurate and Republicans win more elections.

Yeah, JSO siting liberal 538

'Calm down,' Donald Trump won't win the GOP nomination
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nate-sil ... 06189.html

Nate Silver Calls The Election For Hillary Clinton On Election Eve
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/08/celeb ... ction-eve/

538

[BDKJMU]

I would think a celebrity would give it a shot. Perhaps Dwayne Johnson?

He's very popular right now.

He'd have to lay off the juice 1st.

BTW a couple years ago he bought a farm/estate in Orange County, VA, about a 1/2 hr outside of Charlottesville, couple hours southwest of DC. My cousin & her husband's family's farm that they live on is right past the Rock's place, on the same crush N run road that dead ends on their farm. There might be 1 property in between, I don't remember. I've only been out there maybe 3 times since Johnson bought the place. Driving by have noticed the huge gate with with camera(s) & keypad. Little blurb that mentions the estate (not much online about it):
http://wtvr.com/2017/05/02/the-rock-virginia-gym/

From what I looked up he had a mansion he sold in CA. Owns (or did) a giant estate in FL..

[Skjellyfetti]

Yeah, JSO siting liberal 538

[JohnStOnge]

Actually the RCP average as I type is -13.4 so Rasmussen has his Approval - Disapproval number 11.4 percentage points higher than the average of other polls. The current range of the other polls is -7 through -22. And though it's been noted that its point estimate was right on for Trump vs. Clinton it was 4.9 points off for Romney vs. Obama in 2012. The final Rasmussen poll for that one was Trump by 1 and the actual outcome was Obama by 3.9. 538 has it rated C+ on a F through A+ rating system of polls. No real reason to give it more credibility than any of the other polls and all of the other polls that I know of show him under water job approval wise.

Some of the difference is that Rasmussen is trying to use "Likely Voters" so it's not a "hard" characterization, such as "Registered Voters," like the other polls are. But the others things to remember is that the Rasmussen poll is just not a highly rated poll and that it's got the 4th strongest Republican bias among over 300 polls that 538 rates.

It doesn't matter what a far left biased 538 says. Rasmussen is more accurate because it uses likely voters. The only reason the ignorant believe Rasmussen has a Republican bias is because they are more accurate and Republicans win more elections.

The only problem with that analysis is that 538 uses quantitative analysis of how polls actually do and Rassmussen is not more accurate when you look at multiple efforts. Like for instance you can look at the last three Presidential elections and compare how Rasmussen's point estimates have looked vs. the ABC News/Washington Post poll; which is an A+ rated poll.

For those three elections the candidate who was ahead according to just the point estimate in the ABC News/Washington Post poll won all three. It was 2-1 for Rasmussen. The averages of the absolute values of differences between poll point estimates and the outcomes are 1.5 for the Washington Post poll and 2.1 for Rasmussen. The biases in terms of Democrat minus Republican are 0.9 for the Washington Post poll and -2.1 for Rasmussen.

The Republican bias thing is purely mathematical. Bias is simply the average of the margin indicated by the poll point estimate minus the actual outcome. A completely unbiased poll would end up with an average of 0. And by that mathematical measure Rasmussen is 6th among 372 polls assessed by 538 in terms of degree of bias. There are 3 polls more biased than Rasmussen in the Republican direction and two that are more biased in the Democrat direction.

It's one of the most mathematically biased polls out there. At the 98th percentile in that regard.