Quarantine - Could it be done here?

[CID1990]

There’s already been a reported case in Seattle.

A second case has been confirmed in the Chicago area. However, in both cases, the person involved just recently returned to the United States from Wuhan, China.

I will use the "I don't know for sure" qualifier again but at this point I don't think they even know if any of the cases here or in China are the result of human to human transmission.

I think coronaviruses are primarily non human animal viruses that can sometimes make the jump to humans. Here is some information from CDC:

Coronaviruses are common in many different species of animals, including camels and bats. Rarely, these coronaviruses can evolve and infect humans and then spread between humans. Recent examples of this include SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Most coronaviruses infect animals, but not people. In the future, one or more of these other coronaviruses could potentially evolve and spread to humans, as has happened in the past. We still don’t understand why only certain coronaviruses are able to infect people.

[JohnStOnge]

A second case has been confirmed in the Chicago area. However, in both cases, the person involved just recently returned to the United States from Wuhan, China.

I will use the "I don't know for sure" qualifier again but at this point I don't think they even know if any of the cases here or in China are the result of human to human transmission.

I think coronaviruses are primarily non human animal viruses that can sometimes make the jump to humans. Here is some information from CDC:

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

[CID1990]

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s not clear yet how easily 2019-nCoV spreads from person-to-person. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

John,

You are misreading a lot of things in the WHO and CDC info. The only case in this epidemic that was not transferred from human to human was the index case. It is the same with retroviruses like Ebola.

Why not (for a change) just sit back and wait for CDC to fully get their reporting in a pile before posting all this diarrhea? Seriously. Their official reporting takes a strictly scientific position, which is to say “we have not verified actual human transmission yet” which means it has not yet been observed in a clinical sense.

CDC has a large presence here. We are dealing with CDC on a daily basis (as we did in Nigeria with Ebola). Believe it when I say - this latest Coronavirus is contagious via respiratory aerosols. The host is probably bats, but once the virus has mutated and jumped, it then is continually contagious to humans until it runs its course or mutates again.

[CID1990]

Full quarantine is next to impossible in our own society and the other free, mobile populations. Yet another example of how Liberty is messy and yet I would never change it.

In contrast, Wuhan is completely locked down and this was done in a couple days. Consider how the mainland Chinese live every day when their government is capable of that

[UNI88]

I love how JSO spends a few hours on the Google and becomes an expert at something but he refuses to acknowledge the knowledge and expertise of posters who have years of experience with something if their opinion contradicts his preconceived notions and bias.

[dbackjon]

Agreed. Ever read Stephen King's The Stand? Deals with the issue of how unworkable a quarantine is, and in most cases the virus has spread far beyond any quarantine area by the time one is set up.

We are a very mobile society - we drive/fly everywhere all the time. And we have an excellent road system, so way too many ingress/egress points.

Even a fairly isolated metro area like Phoenix, not only would you have to cover the freeways, you still have other paved roads, plus hundreds of dirt roads. And then you would get people trying to flee at all cost by ATV/horse/foot, etc.

Phoenix is no more "isolated" than SLC or Vegas or Albequerque or Houston or Denver or Seattle or Spokane or.....

Correct, but far more isolated than Midwestern/East Coast flatland cities.

Houston isn't isolated at all - you could escape by boat, and tons of roads radiating out from it.

[JohnStOnge]

I love how JSO spends a few hours on the Google and becomes an expert at something but he refuses to acknowledge the knowledge and expertise of posters who have years of experience with something if their opinion contradicts his preconceived notions and bias.

I don't like to talk to much about what I do, UNI, but the bottom line of my job is to prevent the spread of infectious disease through certain vectors. I am not pretending to be an expert on coronavirus. I am Googling around to learn a little bit about it.

As for those other things, it happens that my job involves data analysis. And the principles of data analysis transcend disciplines. The people you are referring to as having years of experience in something have yet to provide any data-based arguments for their point of view that are remotely convincing. They also tend to cherry pick data and make false comparisons.

And if you are wondering: No. I do not cherry pick data. In fact I go out of my way to be conservative and give the alternative view the benefit of the doubt.

[Ivytalk]

I love how JSO spends a few hours on the Google and becomes an expert at something but he refuses to acknowledge the knowledge and expertise of posters who have years of experience with something if their opinion contradicts his preconceived notions and bias.

Give JSO a break.....he'll warm up to the idea of being assimilated into MAGA.....just like I have. ..... .....

You are so full of shit.

[∞∞∞]

Bump.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

You can die trying

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[JohnStOnge]

You can die trying

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I don't think we have to worry about people dying to try. I think it's more about elections. At a certain point the actions to try to stop the spread would cross a line.

[Aho Old Guy]

Phoenix is no more "isolated" than SLC or Vegas or Albequerque or Houston or Denver or Seattle or Spokane or.....

Correct, but far more isolated than Midwestern/East Coast flatland cities.

Houston isn't isolated at all - you could escape by boat, and tons of roads radiating out from it.

And not surprisingly, there is Big Data on that ...
State-to-State Migration Flows

Not sure if this is a first ... but Dare County announced it is restricting visitor access:

The county said on its website permits will be required to enter its borders starting at 2 p.m. today. Checkpoints will be established at entry points to the county.

Visitors will not be able to travel through Dare County to access Currituck County (Corolla), Hyde County (Ocracoke Island), or Tyrrell County, the county said. People who live in, own property or work in Corolla or Ocracoke, will be allowed entry.

[JohnStOnge]

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

John,

You are misreading a lot of things in the WHO and CDC info. The only case in this epidemic that was not transferred from human to human was the index case. It is the same with retroviruses like Ebola.

Why not (for a change) just sit back and wait for CDC to fully get their reporting in a pile before posting all this diarrhea? Seriously. Their official reporting takes a strictly scientific position, which is to say “we have not verified actual human transmission yet” which means it has not yet been observed in a clinical sense.

CDC has a large presence here. We are dealing with CDC on a daily basis (as we did in Nigeria with Ebola). Believe it when I say - this latest Coronavirus is contagious via respiratory aerosols. The host is probably bats, but once the virus has mutated and jumped, it then is continually contagious to humans until it runs its course or mutates again.

Ok. It does look like they have identified person to person spread. However, there are questions as to how easily person to person spread occurs. Here is the risk assessment at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nC ... assessment:

John,

You are misreading a lot of things in the WHO and CDC info. The only case in this epidemic that was not transferred from human to human was the index case. It is the same with retroviruses like Ebola.

Why not (for a change) just sit back and wait for CDC to fully get their reporting in a pile before posting all this diarrhea? Seriously. Their official reporting takes a strictly scientific position, which is to say “we have not verified actual human transmission yet” which means it has not yet been observed in a clinical sense.

CDC has a large presence here. We are dealing with CDC on a daily basis (as we did in Nigeria with Ebola). Believe it when I say - this latest Coronavirus is contagious via respiratory aerosols. The host is probably bats, but once the virus has mutated and jumped, it then is continually contagious to humans until it runs its course or mutates again.

Late in responding to this but I did not misread what CDC was publicly saying at the time. If you had inside knowledge so that you had insights suggesting CDC wasn't letting on at the time that's great. But all I did was quote what CDC was publicly saying. And CDC was publicly saying that how easily the virus was spread person to person was not clear.