Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

[Gil Dobie]

Educated doesn't mean anything really. There are a lot of people out there that would have loved to go to school for half their life and collect degrees. Many could not afford to do that, and are more intelligent and more successful in life than many of these people with pieces of paper framed on their walls. Bill Gates Harvard drop out, for example.

Yes I know it is not a perfect predictor. But we both know that there is a significant correlation between IQ and educational attainment. If you were to randomly select 1000 people from each of the groups Didn't didn't finish high school, high school grad, some college, bachelors degree, and post grad degree you would see a perfect correlation such that the mean IQ got higher at each step.

http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm




When you look at those educational attainment groups in exit polls you would do well to bet that the "Advance Degree" group has the highest mean IQ among them. You would also do well to bet that it has the highest mean IQ of ANY group defined in all of the exit poll breakdowns. And that group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.

What did you say Bill Gates IQ was?

Based on standardized test made up by who?

[JohnStOnge]

Yes I know it is not a perfect predictor. But we both know that there is a significant correlation between IQ and educational attainment. If you were to randomly select 1000 people from each of the groups Didn't didn't finish high school, high school grad, some college, bachelors degree, and post grad degree you would see a perfect correlation such that the mean IQ got higher at each step.

http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm




When you look at those educational attainment groups in exit polls you would do well to bet that the "Advance Degree" group has the highest mean IQ among them. You would also do well to bet that it has the highest mean IQ of ANY group defined in all of the exit poll breakdowns. And that group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.

What did you say Bill Gates IQ was?

Based on standardized test made up by who?

Bill Gates reportedly has a 160 IQ. I don't know which test was used. As I said: It's not a perfect predictor. You can find pairwise comparisons where a person who did not get a college degree has a higher IQ than a person with a graduate degree. But if you were to look at ALL such pairwise comparisons the overwhelming majority of them would be such that the person with the graduate degree has a higher IQ. And the average IQ of everybody who has a graduate degree is a lot higher than the average IQ of everybody who never got a college degree.

I know there is a populist impulse to try to deny the significance of high educational attainment. But it's false. It does mean something on a population level.

[AZGrizFan]

Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit. Kind of like that dipshit attorney who thought Trump was talking about ACTUAL coyotes bringing illegals across the border.

The number of overeducated idiots in this world is expanding at an exponential pace. And you’re their poster child.

[89Hen]

Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit. Kind of like that dipshit attorney who thought Trump was talking about ACTUAL coyotes bringing illegals across the border.

The number of overeducated idiots in this world is expanding at an exponential pace. And you’re their poster child.

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

[AZGrizFan]

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit. Kind of like that dipshit attorney who thought Trump was talking about ACTUAL coyotes bringing illegals across the border.

The number of overeducated idiots in this world is expanding at an exponential pace. And you’re their poster child.

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

No. And most of those folks couldn’t toast bread.

[Gil Dobie]

What did you say Bill Gates IQ was?

Based on standardized test made up by who?

Bill Gates reportedly has a 160 IQ. I don't know which test was used. As I said: It's not a perfect predictor. You can find pairwise comparisons where a person who did not get a college degree has a higher IQ than a person with a graduate degree. But if you were to look at ALL such pairwise comparisons the overwhelming majority of them would be such that the person with the graduate degree has a higher IQ. And the average IQ of everybody who has a graduate degree is a lot higher than the average IQ of everybody who never got a college degree.

I know there is a populist impulse to try to deny the significance of high educational attainment. But it's false. It does mean something on a population level.

This is from the 2016 election, using the Stanford Educational Data Archive Link

Trump had a higher percentage of the White vote, skewing the average for Higher IQ towards Hilary, the largest group of voters. White Graduates voted more for Trump than Clinton. The white non-graduates that voted Trump Skew the IQ down. Trump also had more non-white graduate voters than non-whites that didn't graduate. Just an example of how statistics can be used to make your point, even though it doesn't tell the entire story.

[mainejeff]

The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.

Wrong- life expecancy is going up, not down. Older people vote more conservative than younger. Always have, always will.

The older I get....the more liberal I get.

[89Hen]

Wrong- life expecancy is going up, not down. Older people vote more conservative than younger. Always have, always will.

The older I get....the more liberal I get.

How much more liberal can you get? None. None more liberal.

[kalm]

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit. Kind of like that dipshit attorney who thought Trump was talking about ACTUAL coyotes bringing illegals across the border.

The number of overeducated idiots in this world is expanding at an exponential pace. And you’re their poster child.

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

Good god I would hope so.

[JohnStOnge]

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit. Kind of like that dipshit attorney who thought Trump was talking about ACTUAL coyotes bringing illegals across the border.

The number of overeducated idiots in this world is expanding at an exponential pace. And you’re their poster child.

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

No reason to ignore that. But would you care to bet about how the average IQ of college professors compares to the average IQ of the general population? How about the average IQ of those who didn't get college degrees?

At some point you need to entertain the possibility that having a higher IQ makes you more likely to be a liberal. You need to grapple with the reality that likelihood of being liberal increases as IQ increases.

[BDKJMU]

2016 Trump 46.1%/63 million votes (Clinton was 48.2%/66 million)

With still apparently a few million more votes to be counted:
2020 Trump 47.4%/73 million votes..

Trump has actually done better in 2020, sigificantly if look at vote totals, than 2016.

[JohnStOnge]

Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit.

That's a ridiculous statement and you know it is a ridiculous statement. I mean, just take a step back and contemplate what you said there. It's absurd.

[JohnStOnge]

2016 Trump 46.1%/63 million votes (Clinton was 48.2%/66 million)

With still apparently a few million more votes to be counted:
2020 Trump 47.4%/73 million votes..

Trump has actually done better in 2020, sigificantly if look at vote totals, than 2016.

Third Party candidates were not as much of a factor this time as they were in 2016. He's going to lose in the overall popular vote by a bigger margin than he did then.

However, it IS disturbing that so many people in the United States would vote for somebody like Trump. It's a serious problem for our country. The quality of our country depends on the quality of its people. And having that many people vote for somebody like Trump calls the quality of its people into serious question. Not all of its people. But we clearly have a large proportion of poor-quality people.

[89Hen]

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

No reason to ignore that. But would you care to bet about how the average IQ of college professors compares to the average IQ of the general population? How about the average IQ of those who didn't get college degrees?

At some point you need to entertain the possibility that having a higher IQ makes you more likely to be a liberal. You need to grapple with the reality that likelihood of being liberal increases as IQ increases.

Somebody who has a PhD in History gives me no reason to believe their opinion on anything other than their knowledge of history is superior to an average person working and living in society.

John, you put WAY too much faith in advanced degrees and IQ tests.

[89Hen]

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit.

That's a ridiculous statement and you know it is a ridiculous statement. I mean, just take a step back and contemplate what you said there. It's absurd.

He's right. It don't mean shit John. Some of the most stupid, arrogant, anti-social folks I've met are PhD's.

Maybe you just don't have a lot of them around you. Probably a quarter of my neighbors have advanced degrees. I'm surrounded by morons.

[AZGrizFan]

Being more “educated” doesn’t mean shit.

That's a ridiculous statement and you know it is a ridiculous statement. I mean, just take a step back and contemplate what you said there. It's absurd.

No, it’s not. Given the state of our universities, the shit they’re pushing out are educated idiots. Being book smart, or smart in your field, doesn’t mean shit when it comes to real world, politics, economics, etc. My anecdotal experience is that typically the more people are educated, the less common sense they have. And the more high and mighty they think they are.

[AZGrizFan]

No reason to ignore that. But would you care to bet about how the average IQ of college professors compares to the average IQ of the general population? How about the average IQ of those who didn't get college degrees?

At some point you need to entertain the possibility that having a higher IQ makes you more likely to be a liberal. You need to grapple with the reality that likelihood of being liberal increases as IQ increases.

Somebody who has a PhD in History gives me no reason to believe their opinion on anything other than their knowledge of history is superior to an average person working and living in society.

John, you put WAY too much faith in advanced degrees and IQ tests.

Exactly.

[AZGrizFan]

Shall we ignore that a VAST majority of college professors are liberals?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that 90% of PhD's in Philosophy, History, Music, Psychology, Sociology, Women's Studies, English..... are liberals. That number is complete made up, but would you guess otherwise?

No reason to ignore that. But would you care to bet about how the average IQ of college professors compares to the average IQ of the general population? How about the average IQ of those who didn't get college degrees?

At some point you need to entertain the possibility that having a higher IQ makes you more likely to be a liberal. You need to grapple with the reality that likelihood of being liberal increases as IQ increases.

Good lord. Your hang up on IQ is comical. My sister is a fucking Mensa (I shit you not) and she’s not smart enough to do the dishes before they rot in the sink. House looks like Hoarders. She’s mentally fucking ILL but she qualifies for Mensa and has a photographic memory.

Go peddle that shit somewhere else.

[Gil Dobie]

2016 Trump 46.1%/63 million votes (Clinton was 48.2%/66 million)

With still apparently a few million more votes to be counted:
2020 Trump 47.4%/73 million votes..

Trump has actually done better in 2020, sigificantly if look at vote totals, than 2016.

Third Party candidates were not as much of a factor this time as they were in 2016. He's going to lose in the overall popular vote by a bigger margin than he did then.

However, it IS disturbing that so many people in the United States would vote for somebody like Trump. It's a serious problem for our country. The quality of our country depends on the quality of its people. And having that many people vote for somebody like Trump calls the quality of its people into serious question. Not all of its people. But we clearly have a large proportion of poor-quality people.

I didn't see your answer to the fact that more whites with college degrees voted for Trump over Clinton, and Trump also got more votes from non-whites with college degrees than he did from non-whites without college degrees. Makes your claims FAKE NEWS!!!!!

[Gil Dobie]

No reason to ignore that. But would you care to bet about how the average IQ of college professors compares to the average IQ of the general population? How about the average IQ of those who didn't get college degrees?

At some point you need to entertain the possibility that having a higher IQ makes you more likely to be a liberal. You need to grapple with the reality that likelihood of being liberal increases as IQ increases.

Good lord. Your hang up on IQ is comical. My sister is a fucking Mensa (I shit you not) and she’s not smart enough to do the dishes before they rot in the sink. House looks like Hoarders. She’s mentally fucking ILL but she qualifies for Mensa and has a photographic memory.

Go peddle that shit somewhere else.

6.93

[HI54UNI]

Good lord. Your hang up on IQ is comical. My sister is a fucking Mensa (I shit you not) and she’s not smart enough to do the dishes before they rot in the sink. House looks like Hoarders. She’s mentally fucking ILL but she qualifies for Mensa and has a photographic memory.

Go peddle that shit somewhere else.

6.93

[kalm]

That's a ridiculous statement and you know it is a ridiculous statement. I mean, just take a step back and contemplate what you said there. It's absurd.

He's right. It don't mean shit John. Some of the most stupid, arrogant, anti-social folks I've met are PhD's.

Maybe you just don't have a lot of them around you. Probably a quarter of my neighbors have advanced degrees. I'm surrounded by morons.

I agree with you and AZ to an extent here, but I’d rather be surrounded by educated morons than non-educated morons.

[houndawg]

Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.

Educated doesn't mean anything really. There are a lot of people out there that would have loved to go to school for half their life and collect degrees. Many could not afford to do that, and are more intelligent and more successful in life than many of these people with pieces of paper framed on their walls. Bill Gates Harvard drop out, for example.

and Chizzang!

[JohnStOnge]

Bill Gates reportedly has a 160 IQ. I don't know which test was used. As I said: It's not a perfect predictor. You can find pairwise comparisons where a person who did not get a college degree has a higher IQ than a person with a graduate degree. But if you were to look at ALL such pairwise comparisons the overwhelming majority of them would be such that the person with the graduate degree has a higher IQ. And the average IQ of everybody who has a graduate degree is a lot higher than the average IQ of everybody who never got a college degree.

I know there is a populist impulse to try to deny the significance of high educational attainment. But it's false. It does mean something on a population level.

This is from the 2016 election, using the Stanford Educational Data Archive Link

Trump had a higher percentage of the White vote, skewing the average for Higher IQ towards Hilary, the largest group of voters. White Graduates voted more for Trump than Clinton. The white non-graduates that voted Trump Skew the IQ down. Trump also had more non-white graduate voters than non-whites that didn't graduate. Just an example of how statistics can be used to make your point, even though it doesn't tell the entire story.

First of all, this time, a slight majority of White college graduates voted for Biden (51% to 48%).

Otherwise: I lament the fact that the exit polls never break down post grads by race. But my bet would be that a solid majority of White post grads tend to vote Democrat.

I actually think that Democrats win the a majority of both the highest IQ group and the lowest IQ group. I think that if you broke it up with the bottom 15% being the low IQ group, the middle 70% being the average IQ group, and the top 15% being the high IQ group the Democrats tend to win among the low IQ group and the high IQ group while Republicans tend to win among the average IQ group.

BTW I estimate that White post grads voted for Biden by 59% to 41%. That's based on the numbers from each race getting graduate degrees indicated at https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/pdf/coe_svc.pdf and noting that the exit polling indicates that about 70% of non Whites voted for Biden regardless of education level. So I just assumed the proportions of races voting among post grads this year are the proportions indicated by the linked table and 70% of non White post grads voted for Biden.

Notice that if you just look at Bachelor's degrees for this year's exit poll Biden't edge is only 51% to 47%. Go to graduate degrees and it jumps up to 62% to 37%. I think it's very reasonable to expect that Whites with graduate degrees went for Biden pretty strongly. My guess is that if you could break down the Whites with College Degrees category to Bachelors and Graduate degrees the Whites with Bachelors degrees probably voted majority Trump while those with Graduate degrees probably voted by a solid majority for Biden.

But we can never know for sure because the exit polls don't break things down to that level.

[Gil Dobie]

This is from the 2016 election, using the Stanford Educational Data Archive Link

Trump had a higher percentage of the White vote, skewing the average for Higher IQ towards Hilary, the largest group of voters. White Graduates voted more for Trump than Clinton. The white non-graduates that voted Trump Skew the IQ down. Trump also had more non-white graduate voters than non-whites that didn't graduate. Just an example of how statistics can be used to make your point, even though it doesn't tell the entire story.

First of all, this time, a slight majority of White college graduates voted for Biden (51% to 48%).

Otherwise: I lament the fact that the exit polls never break down post grads by race. But my bet would be that a solid majority of White post grads tend to vote Democrat.

I actually think that Democrats win the a majority of both the highest IQ group and the lowest IQ group. I think that if you broke it up with the bottom 15% being the low IQ group, the middle 70% being the average IQ group, and the top 15% being the high IQ group the Democrats tend to win among the low IQ group and the high IQ group while Republicans tend to win among the average IQ group.

BTW I estimate that White post grads voted for Biden by 59% to 41%. That's based on the numbers from each race getting graduate degrees indicated at https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/pdf/coe_svc.pdf and noting that the exit polling indicates that about 70% of non Whites voted for Biden regardless of education level. So I just assumed the proportions of races voting among post grads this year are the proportions indicated by the linked table and 70% of non White post grads voted for Biden.

Notice that if you just look at Bachelor's degrees for this year's exit poll Biden't edge is only 51% to 47%. Go to graduate degrees and it jumps up to 62% to 37%. I think it's very reasonable to expect that Whites with graduate degrees went for Biden pretty strongly. My guess is that if you could break down the Whites with College Degrees category to Bachelors and Graduate degrees the Whites with Bachelors degrees probably voted majority Trump while those with Graduate degrees probably voted by a solid majority for Biden.

But we can never know for sure because the exit polls don't break things down to that level.

What did the exit polls say in 2916?