Coronavirus COVID-19

[CAA Flagship]

Now for why I came here: I am concerned that the CDC changed its recommendations on wearing masks due to political pressure rather than science. I've seen talking heads who had been pressing for this say the reason is that the information has changed. Specifically, they say we now know there can be asymptomatic infections that can spread the disease and that we now know the disease can be transmitted via aerosols.

But I have been following those things. It was known that asymptomatic infections could transmit since at least as early as February and it has been known that it could be transmitted in aerosols since at least as early as early March. This is not something that happened because the CDC suddenly got information that those things could happen. They already knew that. And they were already operating under the assumptions that the disease could be transmitted by asymptomatic infections as well as via aerosols.

My belief is that the CDC took the position it was taking because it judged that whatever would be gained by telling everyone to wear masks would be outweighed by what we be lost through behavioral changes.

This morning I went to a grocery store while wearing a home made mask for the first time. One thing I noticed immediately is that my glasses would fog when I exhaled. That means the mask was not containing the aerosols I was exhaling, I'm sure it was stopping some of it. But definitely not all.

That mask was made by my wife. She sewed it during an effort to provide home made masks to health care providers. I had another errand to run and she made me one created according to the Surgeon General's instructions. Again, my glasses fogged every time I exhaled. It was not containing aerosols.

This kind of thing, where you have public pressure to change a public health posture, always worries me. I have seen a number of instances before where I had direct knowledge of what was going on and things were done just because, regardless of what the data said, it became clear that pandering to public perception was necessary.

I do hope this is not one of those cases. But I suspect that it is.

Dr tried to explain that the virus was originally thought to be airbourne thru coughing and sneezing. It's been found that the virus is lighter than previously thought. This means it can become airbourne from talking. When it becomes airbourne, it drops towards the ground in the first few feet. This is why the mask are suggested and the 6 foot rule.

It's just the next level of spread suppression. Not sure what the big deal is.

[kalm]

As long as Trump keeps having 3:45 Corona rallies Monday thru Friday to calm the markets....everything will be OK.

What gets me is that we have about half the population that approves of the job Trump's been doing on this. I mean come ON. How obvious could it be that he's screwed up? We have stuff like him saying on February 26, "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

How obvious could it be, at THIS point, that he didn't get it?'

I guess it's fair to understand that most people don't follow things closely enough to know that he should have known his partial travel ban would not have much of an effect. But, I mean, we now have by far the most cases in the world. We are currently third in deaths and are rapidly overtaking the two countries (Italy and Spain) ahead of us. How could ANYONE think Trump has been doing a good job with this?

Again: Especially because it is so clear from his own statements over time that he completely under estimated the threat and got caught with his pants down.

It really is like a cult.

I know you like numbers. Here are the latest from my data analytics friend preceded by some commentary. Buckle up in the Mid-West and South!

Good evening. After another technical snafu, here are today's numbers.

1) Last night, overnight the French tried to take out the trash so to speak. They added approximately 17,800 additional cases to their case count, for cases they "FORGOT" to upload (probably hoping no one would notice on a Friday night) that they had segregated from the regular hospital cases. OOOOPPPPPSSS!!! These cases involved COVID clusters in nursing homes like the one in Kirkland Washington at the Life Center facility. Makes you wonder what other countries and municipalities are doing this. I have a list of a few countries besides China that I absolutely don't believe their numbers, uhem, Russia, India. Indonesia cough cough to name a few.

2) Spain has passed Italy in the absolute case count numbers. However, Spain's day over day increase rate is decelerating pretty fast now, so it looks like they are cresting alongside Italy. Some potentially good news for Paul and Dee Cox

3) I added Iowa to the North American Report, they seem to be following a MAGA Redneck Version of what Sweden is doing, so its probably a good idea to keep more than just a cursory eye on them.

4) A Note on the Vancouver BC Numbers, I did some more digging and the numbers being reported were for the Vancouver Coastal Health ("VCH") Authority, not just Vancouver or Vancouver Metro. Its a bit of a weird geography, Later tonight I'll post a map in the comment section to show it. The effect of this was to double the population quadruple or more the population dispersion and halve the per capita infection rate. I dug into this, most of the infections are still in the Vancouver metro area, so the correcting or adjusting for this halved per capita rate now, presents a more representative view of what is really going on, but in the report, I put both the VCH and the Vancouver City Population densities side by side for reference. It gives an idea of how this can be distorted and this is an important analytic factor as population density is a driving factor in infection rates.

5) NYC and the State of New York have settled into a day over day rate of infection increase at about 10% for over a week. This suggests they are getting a fire line so to speak around the infection wildfire even if it isn't contained. This is probably the first significant step or marker on the path to getting control over the first wave there.

6) Total US Infections are just over 300,000, by this time next week they could easily be anywhere from 600,000 to 900,000, the next two weeks are going to be truly ugly. Even though the West Coast and New York are slowing, Many of the current hot spots and the entire South East are about to massively accelerate. My expectation is that there is going to be a lot of Republican Governors Howling at Trump for the first time by this time next week.

7) Boston's numbers took a decidedly bad up turn today, don't know if this is an infection break out or a testing increase, but I'm going to look into it, its concerning.

8) Washington is getting closer to getting its Data Repository Number problem fixed but it is not quite there yet.

9) Colorado looks like it has finally flattened its curve or its is starting to flatten nicely - Yay Elizabeth Rose

10) The West Coast continues to solidly flatten, however, Gavin Newsom is sounding ominous warnings that their near term models for Los Angeles are not good and that they are expecting a regional break out there.

11) Finally if you are of the praying variety, I'd put some extra prayers in for both the Mid West and the South, especially the rural South, all indications are they are about to start a 3 to 6 weeks period that could make what has happened in NYC look quaint. The rates of mortality that are showing up in the South are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than NYC and theirs were worse than most to begin with.

[Gil Dobie]

Just got a call from the person running the antique show in Rochester, MN. Show is cancelled, Mayo clinic is taking over the hockey arenas at the fairgrounds. I arena for a hospital, 1 for a clinic and 1 for triage. Planning on mid August show date.

[93henfan]

What gets me is that we have about half the population that approves of the job Trump's been doing on this. I mean come ON. How obvious could it be that he's screwed up? We have stuff like him saying on February 26, "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

How obvious could it be, at THIS point, that he didn't get it?'

I guess it's fair to understand that most people don't follow things closely enough to know that he should have known his partial travel ban would not have much of an effect. But, I mean, we now have by far the most cases in the world. We are currently third in deaths and are rapidly overtaking the two countries (Italy and Spain) ahead of us. How could ANYONE think Trump has been doing a good job with this?

Again: Especially because it is so clear from his own statements over time that he completely under estimated the threat and got caught with his pants down.

It really is like a cult.

I know you like numbers. Here are the latest from my data analytics friend preceded by some commentary. Buckle up in the Mid-West and South!

Good evening. After another technical snafu, here are today's numbers.

1) Last night, overnight the French tried to take out the trash so to speak. They added approximately 17,800 additional cases to their case count, for cases they "FORGOT" to upload (probably hoping no one would notice on a Friday night) that they had segregated from the regular hospital cases. OOOOPPPPPSSS!!! These cases involved COVID clusters in nursing homes like the one in Kirkland Washington at the Life Center facility. Makes you wonder what other countries and municipalities are doing this. I have a list of a few countries besides China that I absolutely don't believe their numbers, uhem, Russia, India. Indonesia cough cough to name a few.

2) Spain has passed Italy in the absolute case count numbers. However, Spain's day over day increase rate is decelerating pretty fast now, so it looks like they are cresting alongside Italy. Some potentially good news for Paul and Dee Cox

3) I added Iowa to the North American Report, they seem to be following a MAGA Redneck Version of what Sweden is doing, so its probably a good idea to keep more than just a cursory eye on them.

4) A Note on the Vancouver BC Numbers, I did some more digging and the numbers being reported were for the Vancouver Coastal Health ("VCH") Authority, not just Vancouver or Vancouver Metro. Its a bit of a weird geography, Later tonight I'll post a map in the comment section to show it. The effect of this was to double the population quadruple or more the population dispersion and halve the per capita infection rate. I dug into this, most of the infections are still in the Vancouver metro area, so the correcting or adjusting for this halved per capita rate now, presents a more representative view of what is really going on, but in the report, I put both the VCH and the Vancouver City Population densities side by side for reference. It gives an idea of how this can be distorted and this is an important analytic factor as population density is a driving factor in infection rates.

5) NYC and the State of New York have settled into a day over day rate of infection increase at about 10% for over a week. This suggests they are getting a fire line so to speak around the infection wildfire even if it isn't contained. This is probably the first significant step or marker on the path to getting control over the first wave there.

6) Total US Infections are just over 300,000, by this time next week they could easily be anywhere from 600,000 to 900,000, the next two weeks are going to be truly ugly. Even though the West Coast and New York are slowing, Many of the current hot spots and the entire South East are about to massively accelerate. My expectation is that there is going to be a lot of Republican Governors Howling at Trump for the first time by this time next week.

7) Boston's numbers took a decidedly bad up turn today, don't know if this is an infection break out or a testing increase, but I'm going to look into it, its concerning.

8) Washington is getting closer to getting its Data Repository Number problem fixed but it is not quite there yet.

9) Colorado looks like it has finally flattened its curve or its is starting to flatten nicely - Yay Elizabeth Rose

10) The West Coast continues to solidly flatten, however, Gavin Newsom is sounding ominous warnings that their near term models for Los Angeles are not good and that they are expecting a regional break out there.

11) Finally if you are of the praying variety, I'd put some extra prayers in for both the Mid West and the South, especially the rural South, all indications are they are about to start a 3 to 6 weeks period that could make what has happened in NYC look quaint. The rates of mortality that are showing up in the South are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than NYC and theirs were worse than most to begin with.

I got a good laugh out of this. Your "guy" is exactly like the "girl" from JMU that one of my female friends on Facebook quotes and clings to daily. The writing style of both is eerily almost exactly the same and they both hate Trump and deplorables with a not so subtle rage that exudes through their writing.

I'm not doubting their data. They're just regurgitating when anyone here could research if they wanted to do that all day. They don't have any special insight to offer, yet they have a very inflated sense of self worth because for one time in their lives, scared people are listening and clinging to them

Good stuff. Keep it coming, for the entertainment value alone.

[CAA Flagship]

The rates of mortality that are showing up in the South are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than NYC and theirs were worse than most to begin with.

How is he calculating the rates of mortality? Does he mean deaths per day?

[Gil Dobie]

What South Korea has been doing

[kalm]

I know you like numbers. Here are the latest from my data analytics friend preceded by some commentary. Buckle up in the Mid-West and South!

Good evening. After another technical snafu, here are today's numbers.

1) Last night, overnight the French tried to take out the trash so to speak. They added approximately 17,800 additional cases to their case count, for cases they "FORGOT" to upload (probably hoping no one would notice on a Friday night) that they had segregated from the regular hospital cases. OOOOPPPPPSSS!!! These cases involved COVID clusters in nursing homes like the one in Kirkland Washington at the Life Center facility. Makes you wonder what other countries and municipalities are doing this. I have a list of a few countries besides China that I absolutely don't believe their numbers, uhem, Russia, India. Indonesia cough cough to name a few.

2) Spain has passed Italy in the absolute case count numbers. However, Spain's day over day increase rate is decelerating pretty fast now, so it looks like they are cresting alongside Italy. Some potentially good news for Paul and Dee Cox

3) I added Iowa to the North American Report, they seem to be following a MAGA Redneck Version of what Sweden is doing, so its probably a good idea to keep more than just a cursory eye on them.

4) A Note on the Vancouver BC Numbers, I did some more digging and the numbers being reported were for the Vancouver Coastal Health ("VCH") Authority, not just Vancouver or Vancouver Metro. Its a bit of a weird geography, Later tonight I'll post a map in the comment section to show it. The effect of this was to double the population quadruple or more the population dispersion and halve the per capita infection rate. I dug into this, most of the infections are still in the Vancouver metro area, so the correcting or adjusting for this halved per capita rate now, presents a more representative view of what is really going on, but in the report, I put both the VCH and the Vancouver City Population densities side by side for reference. It gives an idea of how this can be distorted and this is an important analytic factor as population density is a driving factor in infection rates.

5) NYC and the State of New York have settled into a day over day rate of infection increase at about 10% for over a week. This suggests they are getting a fire line so to speak around the infection wildfire even if it isn't contained. This is probably the first significant step or marker on the path to getting control over the first wave there.

6) Total US Infections are just over 300,000, by this time next week they could easily be anywhere from 600,000 to 900,000, the next two weeks are going to be truly ugly. Even though the West Coast and New York are slowing, Many of the current hot spots and the entire South East are about to massively accelerate. My expectation is that there is going to be a lot of Republican Governors Howling at Trump for the first time by this time next week.

7) Boston's numbers took a decidedly bad up turn today, don't know if this is an infection break out or a testing increase, but I'm going to look into it, its concerning.

8) Washington is getting closer to getting its Data Repository Number problem fixed but it is not quite there yet.

9) Colorado looks like it has finally flattened its curve or its is starting to flatten nicely - Yay Elizabeth Rose

10) The West Coast continues to solidly flatten, however, Gavin Newsom is sounding ominous warnings that their near term models for Los Angeles are not good and that they are expecting a regional break out there.

11) Finally if you are of the praying variety, I'd put some extra prayers in for both the Mid West and the South, especially the rural South, all indications are they are about to start a 3 to 6 weeks period that could make what has happened in NYC look quaint. The rates of mortality that are showing up in the South are SIGNIFICANTLY higher than NYC and theirs were worse than most to begin with.

I got a good laugh out of this. Your "guy" is exactly like the "girl" from JMU that one of my female friends on Facebook quotes and clings to daily. The writing style of both is eerily almost exactly the same and they both hate Trump and deplorables with a not so subtle rage that exudes through their writing.

I'm not doubting their data. They're just regurgitating when anyone here could research if they wanted to do that all day. They don't have any special insight to offer, yet they have a very inflated sense of self worth because for one time in their lives, scared people are listening and clinging to them

Good stuff. Keep it coming, for the entertainment value alone.

I anticipated this response. They’re good valuable numbers and yes anyone can produce the same. You can choose to have your feelings hurt by the commentary or not.

I’ve known him since we were kids and he’s been around the world a few times so to speak and is in the cyber security/Data analytics business so I’m guessing this is also a project that helps his company. Take it or leave it...your choice. But I do know the numbers are accurate and his predictions have been spot on.

He’s a centrist and I asked his permission to share before posting pointing out the political nature of his comments.

His reply:

“Go right ahead, those politics are more a statement of likely fact than partisan shooting”

[93henfan]

Just make sure you let him know you hang on his every word. That's his crack. His 15 minutes..

[BDKJMU]

I got a good laugh out of this. Your "guy" is exactly like the "girl" from JMU that one of my female friends on Facebook quotes and clings to daily. The writing style of both is eerily almost exactly the same and they both hate Trump and deplorables with a not so subtle rage that exudes through their writing.

I'm not doubting their data. They're just regurgitating when anyone here could research if they wanted to do that all day. They don't have any special insight to offer, yet they have a very inflated sense of self worth because for one time in their lives, scared people are listening and clinging to them

Good stuff. Keep it coming, for the entertainment value alone.

I anticipated this response. They’re good valuable numbers and yes anyone can produce the same. You can choose to have your feelings hurt by the commentary or not.

I’ve known him since we were kids and he’s been around the world a few times so to speak and is in the cyber security/Data analytics business so I’m guessing this is also a project that helps his company. Take it or leave it...your choice. But I do know the numbers are accurate and his predictions have been spot on.

He’s a centrist and I asked his permission to share before posting pointing out the political nature of his comments.

His reply:

“Go right ahead, those politics are more a statement of likely fact than partisan shooting”

Isn't that what you say about most liberals?

[kalm]

Just make sure you let him know you hang on his every word. That's his crack. His 15 minutes..

You’re probably right and I’m ok with that. I hang on your every word too.

[kalm]

Good read. A bounce back to lockdown in Chinese region. Includes some suspicions of under reporting. It will be interesting to compare what happens in China vs. Sweden.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... ssion=true

[JohnStOnge]

Dr tried to explain that the virus was originally thought to be airbourne thru coughing and sneezing. It's been found that the virus is lighter than previously thought. This means it can become airbourne from talking. When it becomes airbourne, it drops towards the ground in the first few feet. This is why the mask are suggested and the 6 foot rule.

It's just the next level of spread suppression. Not sure what the big deal is.

It was known that it was likely to be carried in aerosols well before this change. I do not think decision to reverse course and recommend mask wearing was due to new information in that regard.

I doubt that it changes the risk picture much either way. But I have been on the inside of responding to potential human health concerns associated with big news events like the Deepwater Horizon incident and Hurricane Katrina and I have seen agencies have to do things because of public perception and pressure rather than on the basis of what historical information and current data indicate. I don't like that when i see it and I suspect I just saw that with this CDC change in its position on masks. Especially since they are saying to wear home made masks.

Again: They knew in late February that it could be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infected persons and they've known that it MAY be transmitted via aerosols since at least as early as early March. I emphasize MAY because they still don't really know:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

If it IS transmitted via aerosols they are now telling people to wear home made masks such that a lot of the aerosols they exhale are just going to shoot out through the edges of those masks and hang in the air for other people to walk through. I'm talking about indoors such as in a supermarket. Meanwhile, no matter how much they say a home made mask won't protect you, there are going to be plenty of people who think that it does. Those people may to some extent be "social distancing" because they are worried about GETTING the virus. But, while it's not what they are worried about, the effect would be to have them also protecting others if they happen to be, say, asymptomatic infections. Changing to recommending wearing a home made mask could make them think they are at least somewhat protected and change their behavior. And I think that is what CDC has been worried about.

After having worn two different home made masks yesterday I also think it is likely that people are going to touch the edges of it, the edges that have been exposed to the aerosols shooting out, because they're going to feel like they need to adjust the position. Then they're going to touch things in the store.

[CAA Flagship]

Just make sure you let him know you hang on his every word. That's his crack. His 15 minutes..

You’re probably right and I’m ok with that. I hang on your every word too.

[kalm]

You’re probably right and I’m ok with that. I hang on your every word too.

[CAA Flagship]

It's just the next level of spread suppression. Not sure what the big deal is.

It was known that it was likely to be carried in aerosols well before this change. I do not think decision to reverse course and recommend mask wearing was due to new information in that regard.

I doubt that it changes the risk picture much either way. But I have been on the inside of responding to potential human health concerns associated with big news events like the Deepwater Horizon incident and Hurricane Katrina and I have seen agencies have to do things because of public perception and pressure rather than on the basis of what historical information and current data indicate. I don't like that when i see it and I suspect I just saw that with this CDC change in its position on masks. Especially since they are saying to wear home made masks.

Again: They knew in late February that it could be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infected persons and they've known that it MAY be transmitted via aerosols since at least as early as early March. I emphasize MAY because they still don't really know:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

If it IS transmitted via aerosols they are now telling people to wear home made masks such that a lot of the aerosols they exhale are just going to shoot out through the edges of those masks and hang in the air for other people to walk through. I'm talking about indoors such as in a supermarket. Meanwhile, no matter how much they say a home made mask won't protect you, there are going to be plenty of people who think that it does. Those people may to some extent be "social distancing" because they are worried about GETTING the virus. But, while it's not what they are worried about, the effect would be to have them also protecting others if they happen to be, say, asymptomatic infections. Changing to recommending wearing a home made mask could make them think they are at least somewhat protected and change their behavior. And I think that is what CDC has been worried about.

After having worn two different home made masks yesterday I also think it is likely that people are going to touch the edges of it, the edges that have been exposed to the aerosols shooting out, because they're going to feel like they need to adjust the position. Then they're going to touch things in the store.

What's the conspiracy? Maybe they feel comfortable that enough medical grade masks are on the way for the professionals so they are now recommending voluntary mask wearing. They know a lot of people will get their hands on medical grade masks. I just got back from the grocery store 15 minutes ago. I saw at least 10 people wearing masks. All but one was medical grade (none were N95 though).

[HI54UNI]

Good read. A bounce back to lockdown in Chinese region. Includes some suspicions of under reporting. It will be interesting to compare what happens in China vs. Sweden.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... ssion=true

Some suspicions?

[HI54UNI]

The maps you've seen are misleading. Here's why cellphones don't measure social distancing.

What do reductions in cell phone distance indicate about compliance with social distancing? Absolutely nothing. They just indicate which states were more-densely populated before the outbreak.

The U.S. is experiencing exponential growth in the number of COVID-19 cases. Without a known treatment or immunity, the only way to slow the spread of the disease is to follow enhanced personal hygiene and to practice social distancing.

While there are prominent examples of individuals defying voluntary or mandatory prohibitions against large group activities such as spring break celebrations on the beach, and of churches defying government recommendations to close by continuing services, the government does not have the resources to monitor or enforce compliance.

Into the breach came efforts to use cellphone use to measure travel. Korea used cellphone tracking to retrace contacts for individuals who tested positive for the virus. Several governments use more aggregated data to assess the extent to which individuals are avoiding public places or staying away from work. One firm showed how cellphones that were in Florida over spring break dispersed to all the various parts of the United States. This can be useful.

However, this data can be misused. Recently, the Norwegian company Unacast developed a Social Distancing Scoreboard that rates states and counties by estimated decrease in average distance traveled from before the virus outbreak to the present day. Places with the largest decreases in distance, measured by cellphone location, were given an A for practicing social distance. Places with the smallest decreases were given D's and F's.

Amazingly, it appears that nobody questioned whether the data were valid. The five best states for social distancing on March 27, according to Unacast, were Alaska, the District of Columbia, Nevada, New Jersey, and New York. All received A's in social distancing. The five worst states were Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. These states received D's and F's. An obvious problem is that none of the states claimed by Unacast as failing at social distancing is experiencing high virus infection rates. On average, they had 10 cases per 100,000 in the population as of March 27, and their cases were increasing slowly. The places supposedly practicing social distancing the best include three with the highest incidence of the disease, New York, New Jersey and the District of Columbia. Those "best practice" states averaged 78 cases per 100,000 in the population.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 112251002/

[houndawg]

You should ty it - losening up a little wouldn't hurt you at all

*loosening

[mainejeff]

As long as Trump keeps having 3:45 Corona rallies Monday thru Friday to calm the markets....everything will be OK.

What gets me is that we have about half the population that approves of the job Trump's been doing on this. I mean come ON. How obvious could it be that he's screwed up? We have stuff like him saying on February 26, "When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

How obvious could it be, at THIS point, that he didn't get it?'

I guess it's fair to understand that most people don't follow things closely enough to know that he should have known his partial travel ban would not have much of an effect. But, I mean, we now have by far the most cases in the world. We are currently third in deaths and are rapidly overtaking the two countries (Italy and Spain) ahead of us. How could ANYONE think Trump has been doing a good job with this?

Again: Especially because it is so clear from his own statements over time that he completely under estimated the threat and got caught with his pants down.

It really is like a cult.

It really is....but it goes beyond that. Trump cultists are much like him....they don't want to be told what to do....by anyone. If you know more than them you are considered an "elitist" (even if your facts are backed by scientific data). Ands science.....they HATE science. They can't function completely in their alternate reality when scientific fact gets in the way. Yes, Trump is like a yuge swath of America.....with a bigger checkbook and the pulpit of the Presidency.

I really am struggling to figure out what our future is though......we can't function day to week to month to year like we currently are. Maybe this will magically get better when Trump leaves office and/or dies.....but I doubt it. I know that the dissolution of our country into smaller separate entities might be impossible......but these days....never say never. . It would seem that both RED and BLUE states and citizens have called for secession over the past decade. We better figure this out though.....I feel like th pot is reaching the boiling point.

[mainejeff]

[
I got a good laugh out of this. Your "guy" is exactly like the "girl" from JMU that one of my female friends on Facebook quotes and clings to daily. The writing style of both is eerily almost exactly the same and they both hate Trump and deplorables with a not so subtle rage that exudes through their writing.

I'm not doubting their data. They're just regurgitating when anyone here could research if they wanted to do that all day. They don't have any special insight to offer, yet they have a very inflated sense of self worth because for one time in their lives, scared people are listening and clinging to them

Good stuff. Keep it coming, for the entertainment value alone.

Poor 93henfan......anything that even vaguely relates to bad news for Donald J. Trump. Triggered.

[mainejeff]

Just make sure you let him know you hang on his every word. That's his crack. His 15 minutes..

Like everyone's "15 minutes" on here have turned into 15 years?

[Gil Dobie]

It's just the next level of spread suppression. Not sure what the big deal is.

It was known that it was likely to be carried in aerosols well before this change. I do not think decision to reverse course and recommend mask wearing was due to new information in that regard.

I doubt that it changes the risk picture much either way. But I have been on the inside of responding to potential human health concerns associated with big news events like the Deepwater Horizon incident and Hurricane Katrina and I have seen agencies have to do things because of public perception and pressure rather than on the basis of what historical information and current data indicate. I don't like that when i see it and I suspect I just saw that with this CDC change in its position on masks. Especially since they are saying to wear home made masks.

Again: They knew in late February that it could be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infected persons and they've known that it MAY be transmitted via aerosols since at least as early as early March. I emphasize MAY because they still don't really know:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

If it IS transmitted via aerosols they are now telling people to wear home made masks such that a lot of the aerosols they exhale are just going to shoot out through the edges of those masks and hang in the air for other people to walk through. I'm talking about indoors such as in a supermarket. Meanwhile, no matter how much they say a home made mask won't protect you, there are going to be plenty of people who think that it does. Those people may to some extent be "social distancing" because they are worried about GETTING the virus. But, while it's not what they are worried about, the effect would be to have them also protecting others if they happen to be, say, asymptomatic infections. Changing to recommending wearing a home made mask could make them think they are at least somewhat protected and change their behavior. And I think that is what CDC has been worried about.

After having worn two different home made masks yesterday I also think it is likely that people are going to touch the edges of it, the edges that have been exposed to the aerosols shooting out, because they're going to feel like they need to adjust the position. Then they're going to touch things in the store.

The masks are not a 100 % way to prevent catching or transmitting the virus. They do reduce the percentages of being infected or transmitting the virus. We don't need to read 10 paragraphs of redundant Bullshit to tell us it's not a 100 percent preventative measure.

[SeattleGriz]

It was known that it was likely to be carried in aerosols well before this change. I do not think decision to reverse course and recommend mask wearing was due to new information in that regard.

I doubt that it changes the risk picture much either way. But I have been on the inside of responding to potential human health concerns associated with big news events like the Deepwater Horizon incident and Hurricane Katrina and I have seen agencies have to do things because of public perception and pressure rather than on the basis of what historical information and current data indicate. I don't like that when i see it and I suspect I just saw that with this CDC change in its position on masks. Especially since they are saying to wear home made masks.

Again: They knew in late February that it could be transmitted by asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infected persons and they've known that it MAY be transmitted via aerosols since at least as early as early March. I emphasize MAY because they still don't really know:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00974-w

If it IS transmitted via aerosols they are now telling people to wear home made masks such that a lot of the aerosols they exhale are just going to shoot out through the edges of those masks and hang in the air for other people to walk through. I'm talking about indoors such as in a supermarket. Meanwhile, no matter how much they say a home made mask won't protect you, there are going to be plenty of people who think that it does. Those people may to some extent be "social distancing" because they are worried about GETTING the virus. But, while it's not what they are worried about, the effect would be to have them also protecting others if they happen to be, say, asymptomatic infections. Changing to recommending wearing a home made mask could make them think they are at least somewhat protected and change their behavior. And I think that is what CDC has been worried about.

After having worn two different home made masks yesterday I also think it is likely that people are going to touch the edges of it, the edges that have been exposed to the aerosols shooting out, because they're going to feel like they need to adjust the position. Then they're going to touch things in the store.

The masks are not a 100 % way to prevent catching or transmitting the virus. They do reduce the percentages of being infected or transmitting the virus. We don't need to read 10 paragraphs of redundant Bullshit to tell us it's not a 100 percent preventative measure.

I go pick up my home made masks today. Friend of a friend is making them, so I ordered for the family.

I'm helping.

[93henfan]

[
I got a good laugh out of this. Your "guy" is exactly like the "girl" from JMU that one of my female friends on Facebook quotes and clings to daily. The writing style of both is eerily almost exactly the same and they both hate Trump and deplorables with a not so subtle rage that exudes through their writing.

I'm not doubting their data. They're just regurgitating when anyone here could research if they wanted to do that all day. They don't have any special insight to offer, yet they have a very inflated sense of self worth because for one time in their lives, scared people are listening and clinging to them

Good stuff. Keep it coming, for the entertainment value alone.

Poor 93henfan......anything that even vaguely relates to bad news for Donald J. Trump. Triggered.

I was getting more entertainment out of the soapbox of the scientist. I got similar entertainment from a fellow Marine officer at Camp Pendleton who was a physics major at UT Austin (and he was a Republican, so the political angle is moot). In the late 90s, his hobby was to develop all sorts of stock picking analytics, you know, because he thought he was a mathematical genius and smarter than everyone else. I didn't have the heart to tell the guy that I could rely on asking a bum on the street for stock tips in the late 90s, because EVERYTHING was going up then, just like EVERYBODY knows that coronavirus is new and different and NO politician (not Trump, not Cuomo, not de Blasio) was prepared or had a good strategy in advance.

But all along, these analytical dweebs will act like they have some special insight and it really revs them up when people circle around their soapbox to listen.

I have a natural aversion to self-important people like that. That's all.

Oh, you didn't mail me my cancer cookie. Get on it. I like chocolate chip and also oatmeal without raisins! Raisins remind me of polyps.

[CAA Flagship]

Raisins remind me of polyps.

No. Raisins are like nipples.