The Official "Making America Great Again" Thread

[AZGrizFan]

U.S. job growth surges; annual wage gain biggest since 2009

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1N70AJ

[JohnStOnge]

U.S. job growth surges; annual wage gain biggest since 2009

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1N70AJ

So the biggest since Obama was President?

[93henfan]

So the biggest since Obama was President?

Obama took office in 2009, so yes, the biggest since before roughly 7.5 years of his 8 year Presidency. And that was also when we were handing out free bailout money to large US manufacturing and financials at epic rates. Obama also signed ARRA in Feb 2009, which absolutely lavished the construction industry with cash and hundreds of thousands of new fairly high paying blue collar jobs.

[93henfan]

I still can't believe he won. We'll miss this guy some day.

[Ibanez]

Someone needs to teach that man how to buy a suit and wear a tie.


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[kalm]

So the biggest since Obama was President?

Obama took office in 2009, so yes, the biggest since before roughly 7.5 years of his 8 year Presidency. And that was also when we were handing out free bailout money to large US manufacturing and financials at epic rates. Obama also signed ARRA in Feb 2009, which absolutely lavished the construction industry with cash and hundreds of thousands of new fairly high paying blue collar jobs.

I'm assuming large scale construction? I thought the shovel ready stuff was a bust?

[93henfan]

Obama took office in 2009, so yes, the biggest since before roughly 7.5 years of his 8 year Presidency. And that was also when we were handing out free bailout money to large US manufacturing and financials at epic rates. Obama also signed ARRA in Feb 2009, which absolutely lavished the construction industry with cash and hundreds of thousands of new fairly high paying blue collar jobs.

I'm assuming large scale construction? I thought the shovel ready stuff was a bust?

I personally let about $400M in federal construction contracts. They were for:

1. Nuclear reactor rehab.
2. National fire research lab rehab and improvement.
3. A new child care center.
4. A new net zero energy usage research home.
5. A bunch of other shit I've already forgotten about.

[UNI88]

I'm assuming large scale construction? I thought the shovel ready stuff was a bust?

I personally let about $400M in federal construction contracts. They were for:

1. Nuclear reactor rehab.
2. National fire research lab rehab and improvement.
3. A new child care center.
4. A new net zero energy usage research home.
5. A bunch of other **** I've already forgotten about.

How much was already in the pipeline and how much was really new?

[93henfan]

I personally let about $400M in federal construction contracts. They were for:

1. Nuclear reactor rehab.
2. National fire research lab rehab and improvement.
3. A new child care center.
4. A new net zero energy usage research home.
5. A bunch of other **** I've already forgotten about.

How much was already in the pipeline and how much was really new?

Mixed bag. The rehabs were in the pipeline. The rest were design-ready projects that were able to move up a few fiscal years. The money falling from heaven that was left was then put toward a slew of new designs where the head honcho basically said, "We have millions of dollars and can do any design we want. What would you like to see that we never thought of due to our previous budget.". We made a banner couple of years for the DC-area AEs in 2009 and 2010. I had a boss get demoted after an IG investigation that found he was letting some designs without proper vetting of the firms. I can't excuse him, but there was immense pressure to obligate all the ARRA money.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW, here is where we are with respect to job growth in the context of latter portion of the recovery that's been going on since 2009 from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/busineses- ... n-9-years/:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/busineses- ... n-9-years/



Again: No objective person would look at that and think anything big happened recently to change the way things have been going during the recovery.

I am still looking for what wages look like when adjusted for inflation. Haven't been able to find that through October yet.

[JohnStOnge]

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wages ... 2018-07-17:



I don't think the wage increase stat we've been hearing about during the last couple of days is an inflation adjusted thing. If it is it is and you can let me know.

[Skjellyfetti]

Again: No objective person would look at that and think anything big happened recently to change the way things have been going during the recovery.

There were people on here arguing that job numbers / unemployment numbers were being fudged by Obama...

[93henfan]

Again: No objective person would look at that and think anything big happened recently to change the way things have been going during the recovery.

There were people on here arguing that job numbers / unemployment numbers were being fudged by Obama...

Link? What I remember was mostly people saying that sure, unemployment was improving somewhat, but there were also record numbers of people dropping out of the workforce that way more than offset any rosy picture being painted at the time.

There's no denying that the economy and employment have improved dramatically under Trump, regardless of the stat lawyering that JSO is trying to conjure up. We know his full-blown TDS doesn't allow him to speak rationally of The President.

[SeattleGriz]

Obama took office in 2009, so yes, the biggest since before roughly 7.5 years of his 8 year Presidency. And that was also when we were handing out free bailout money to large US manufacturing and financials at epic rates. Obama also signed ARRA in Feb 2009, which absolutely lavished the construction industry with cash and hundreds of thousands of new fairly high paying blue collar jobs.

I'm assuming large scale construction? I thought the shovel ready stuff was a bust?

I'm confused too. Are we talking about Obama's created jobs, or his saved jobs metrics?

[JohnStOnge]

Ok guys this is what I'm talking about in terms of waiting until we see what the wage changes look like when adjusted for inflation. There is a page at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 112018.htm where you can find monthly reports on how real wages changed over annual periods. The most recent one is for September, 2018. The wages are reported in constant 1982-1984 dollars. I have no idea as to why it's not just one year or why they're using the early 1980s as the benchmark. But the point is that the values are adjusted to account for inflation.

With that in mind, click on the September 2018 report at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 112018.htm. You will see that real hourly earnings went from $10.76 in September 2017 to $10.81 in September, 2018. That's an increase of 0.46%. Now click on the September 2016 report at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 82016.htmj. You will see that real hourly earnings went from $10.59 in September, 2016 to $10.70 in September, 2017. That's an increase of 1.04%.

If you look at real weekly earnings for each report and do the math you see that they went up by 1.06% for the year ending September 2018 and by 0.80% for the year ending September 2016. So real hourly earnings went up a little more for 2016 while real weekly earnings went up a little more for 2018.

Anyway that's the kind of thing one needs to look at before deciding on what a wage increase number really means. According to the BLS page I linked the report on real earnings for the year ending October, 2018, will be issued on November 14. Then we can take a look at it and see if it looks like the highest since 2009 or something like that.

[CAA Flagship]

Wage growth occurs at a certain point in an economic cycle. A point where unemployment is low and participation is high. Once again, JSO points to Obama's performance when he had every economic wind at his back. But the bottom line is the economic recovery under Obama was SO FUCKING SLOW. We are just now getting to the point where we are flushing out people who were not being accounted for in the workforce, and it's about 6-7 years later than it should have been. We are still in a phase where qualified workers are zig-zagging their way up to better wages because of the economic expansion. But it's not at the point where it is costing companies higher wages yet because people that were on the sidelines are competing for those jobs.

The Obama years, economically, was an important time because of the Baby Boomers. A strong recovery would have allowed Boomers the final work spurt to get them to the retirement finish line. Instead, he slow played the economy and had them staying warm on the sidelines looking to get back in. The job numbers keep beating estimates because the estimators didn't think these people were willing to get back in. But the labor pool keeps replenishing itself with the sideliners and the higher wages are not quite necessary yet at the "experienced" levels of employment.

[AZGrizFan]

Wage growth occurs at a certain point in an economic cycle. A point where unemployment is low and participation is high. Once again, JSO points to Obama's performance when he had every economic wind at his back. But the bottom line is the economic recovery under Obama was SO FUCKING SLOW. We are just now getting to the point where we are flushing out people who were not being accounted for in the workforce, and it's about 6-7 years later than it should have been. We are still in a phase where qualified workers are zig-zagging their way up to better wages because of the economic expansion. But it's not at the point where it is costing companies higher wages yet because people that were on the sidelines are competing for those jobs.

The Obama years, economically, was an important time because of the Baby Boomers. A strong recovery would have allowed Boomers the final work spurt to get them to the retirement finish line. Instead, he slow played the economy and had them staying warm on the sidelines looking to get back in. The job numbers keep beating estimates because the estimators didn't think these people were willing to get back in. But the labor pool keeps replenishing itself with the sideliners and the higher wages are not quite necessary yet at the "experienced" levels of employment.

And all in the face of the Fed raising rates 9 times AND unwinding their 4.5T balance sheet.

But you need to give it up, bro. He ain't listenin'.....

[Chizzang]

Wage growth occurs at a certain point in an economic cycle. A point where unemployment is low and participation is high. Once again, JSO points to Obama's performance when he had every economic wind at his back. But the bottom line is the economic recovery under Obama was SO FUCKING SLOW. We are just now getting to the point where we are flushing out people who were not being accounted for in the workforce, and it's about 6-7 years later than it should have been. We are still in a phase where qualified workers are zig-zagging their way up to better wages because of the economic expansion. But it's not at the point where it is costing companies higher wages yet because people that were on the sidelines are competing for those jobs.

The Obama years, economically, was an important time because of the Baby Boomers. A strong recovery would have allowed Boomers the final work spurt to get them to the retirement finish line. Instead, he slow played the economy and had them staying warm on the sidelines looking to get back in. The job numbers keep beating estimates because the estimators didn't think these people were willing to get back in. But the labor pool keeps replenishing itself with the sideliners and the higher wages are not quite necessary yet at the "experienced" levels of employment.

And all in the face of the Fed raising rates 9 times AND unwinding their 4.5T balance sheet.

But you need to give it up, bro. He ain't listenin'.....

News Flash..!!!
Nobody is listening to anybody

[kalm]

And all in the face of the Fed raising rates 9 times AND unwinding their 4.5T balance sheet.

But you need to give it up, bro. He ain't listenin'.....

News Flash..!!!
Nobody is listening to anybody

Come again?

[mainejeff]

And all in the face of the Fed raising rates 9 times AND unwinding their 4.5T balance sheet.

But you need to give it up, bro. He ain't listenin'.....

News Flash..!!!
Nobody is listening to anybody

Did you say something?

[AZGrizFan]

And all in the face of the Fed raising rates 9 times AND unwinding their 4.5T balance sheet.

But you need to give it up, bro. He ain't listenin'.....

News Flash..!!!
Nobody is listening to anybody

Your lips are moving but I can't hear anything.

[css75]

https://youtu.be/Ss4jYTd8KUo


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[JohnStOnge]

Wage growth occurs at a certain point in an economic cycle. A point where unemployment is low and participation is high. Once again, JSO points to Obama's performance when he had every economic wind at his back. But the bottom line is the economic recovery under Obama was SO **** SLOW.

I came here just now to post the data I'm about to post but I think that quote is a good take off point. The point I've been trying to make to you guys is that things were starting to take off more before Trump got elected. Earnings increases provide another example of that. I am going to post three images of charts showing real weekly earnings (i.e., inflation adjusted over time). One is for seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates, one if for quarterly estimates not seasonally adjusted, and one if for annual. All three show that real weekly earnings started to rise during mid 2014. If you go to the quarterly estimate charts and use your cursor to see what's going on, you can see that the rise started between the second and third quarter of 2014. There is no way any objective person would look at the data and say the trend towards increasing real earnings started with Trump.

Here are the charts:

At https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q, seasonally adjusted quarterly growth:



At https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600Q, quarterly growth not seasonally adjusted:





Again: No intellectually honest person could look at those charts and say that the trend towards rising earnings started with Trump. It was already well-established before he got elected or took office. BTW, if you're wondering, the down dip you see in the seasonally adjusted quarterly chart near the end was the 4th quarter of 2017.

[CAA Flagship]

Wage growth occurs at a certain point in an economic cycle. A point where unemployment is low and participation is high. Once again, JSO points to Obama's performance when he had every economic wind at his back. But the bottom line is the economic recovery under Obama was SO **** SLOW.

I came here just now to post the data I'm about to post but I think that quote is a good take off point. The point I've been trying to make to you guys is that things were starting to take off more before Trump got elected. Earnings increases provide another example of that. I am going to post three images of charts showing real weekly earnings (i.e., inflation adjusted over time). One is for seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates, one if for quarterly estimates not seasonally adjusted, and one if for annual. All three show that real weekly earnings started to rise during mid 2014. If you go to the quarterly estimate charts and use your cursor to see what's going on, you can see that the rise started between the second and third quarter of 2014. There is no way any objective person would look at the data and say the trend towards increasing real earnings started with Trump.

Here are the charts:

At https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q, seasonally adjusted quarterly growth:



At https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881600Q, quarterly growth not seasonally adjusted:





Again: No intellectually honest person could look at those charts and say that the trend towards rising earnings started with Trump. It was already well-established before he got elected or took office. BTW, if you're wondering, the down dip you see in the seasonally adjusted quarterly chart near the end was the 4th quarter of 2017.

No. You are wrong. Obama was an economic nightmare and you are in his camp. Don't tell me that you understand anything about the economy and it's affect on people. You are living in your isolated world and have no idea what's going on in America. Obama failed millions of Americans. And that is why Trump won. Period.

[JohnStOnge]

No. You are wrong. Obama was an economic nightmare and you are in his camp. Don't tell me that you understand anything about the economy and it's affect on people. You are living in your isolated world and have no idea what's going on in America. Obama failed millions of Americans. And that is why Trump won. Period.

In other words, just ignore the fact that the trend towards increasing wages started in 2014. And ignore the fact that the trend towards decreasing unemployment started in 2010. And just ignore the fact that the current growth cycle started in 2009. And just ignore the fact that after the stock market flattened out for a while it started rising in early 2016. So on and so forth.