2020 Democratic Nomination Process Mega-thread

[CID1990]

Ultimately impeachment is political. In theory, if the House and the Senate have large majorities with one party, and the President is from the other party, he could be impeached for just being insulting.

But, being a political exercise, that is what keeps it from happening.... because the voters, if they disagree, will punish the party that impeaches the President.

I don’t think Trump’s impeachment will move the needle as far as Clinton’s did, but there will almost certainly be political consequences for someone.

[mainejeff]

I agree. It may be 4 more years. Which only exonerates him in your mind. Low...bar.

There was NO. CASE. They made a shitty, shitty argument. What more is there to know? Seriously?

Seriously. Trump is the cleanest President in the history of our country. Libs just can't get over their butt hurt about Hillary losing. Most people love Trump.......get over it!

[mainejeff]

But, being a political exercise, that is what keeps it from happening.... because the voters, if they disagree, will punish the party that impeaches the President.

And punish them they will.

[houndawg]

The only thing he was exonerated from was whether his actions amounted to a conviction by a Senate controlled by his own party.

He was found not guilty. The house made a shitty case, failed to call pertinent witnesses (and we know why ), thus they sent a shitty case to the Senate. If the witnesses weren’t good enough to be heard by the house, why in the fuck should the senate hear them?

Case closed. Not guilty. Four more years.

They wouldn't because they know he's guilty as fuck

[BDKJMU]

I agree. It may be 4 more years. Which only exonerates him in your mind. Low...bar.

There was NO. CASE. They made a shitty, shitty argument. What more is there to know? Seriously?

Yep. And 250 of 251 conks saw that, except Romney. And Romney might have seen it, he just had a bitter ax to grind.

[kalm]

There was NO. CASE. They made a shitty, shitty argument. What more is there to know? Seriously?

Yep. And 230 of 231 conks saw that, except Romney. And Romney might have seen it, he just had a bitter ax to grind.

So impeached on a technicality?

[AZGrizFan]

He was found not guilty. The house made a shitty case, failed to call pertinent witnesses (and we know why ), thus they sent a shitty case to the Senate. If the witnesses weren’t good enough to be heard by the house, why in the fuck should the senate hear them?

Case closed. Not guilty. Four more years.

They wouldn't because they know he's guilty as fuck

Well we’ll never know, will we? And all because the House built a shitty case that they sent to the Senate.

[kalm]

For entertainment value alone...I hope the conks keep helping Bernie...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-trump ... -regret-it

[SDHornet]

Ultimately impeachment is political. In theory, if the House and the Senate have large majorities with one party, and the President is from the other party, he could be impeached for just being insulting.

But, being a political exercise, that is what keeps it from happening.... because the voters, if they disagree, will punish the party that impeaches the President.

I don’t think Trump’s impeachment will move the needle as far as Clinton’s did, but there will almost certainly be political consequences for someone.

It moved the needle for Biden...but not in the direction he wanted.

[CID1990]

Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Trump in the general. There will be nothing to regret on the part of the Trumpies


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[SDHornet]

Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Trump in the general. There will be nothing to regret on the part of the Trumpies


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This. America ain't voting for some white ass joo commie.

[SDHornet]

Recent footage of the last DNC debate:

[SDHornet]

The msm to Bernie's campaign:

[BDKJMU]

Yep. And 230 of 231 conks saw that, except Romney. And Romney might have seen it, he just had a bitter ax to grind.

So impeached on a technicality?

Wasn’t any technicality about it. Was a complete sham.

And 250 of 251 (House and Senate).

[UNI88]

I don't know. Stranger things have happened. 4+ years ago I didn't think Trump could win the nomination much less the presidency. Of course, the republic will stand even if Cousin Bernie does win.

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[kalm]

Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Trump in the general. There will be nothing to regret on the part of the Trumpies


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Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

[CID1990]

Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Trump in the general. There will be nothing to regret on the part of the Trumpies


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Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

Yeah well right up until the eve of the 2016 election Trump was trailing Hillary by landslide proportions

Bernie’s got his Bros but he isn’t going to turn the Obama-Trump voters. He has as much of a ceiling as Trump with a smaller base

[kalm]

Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

Yeah well right up until the eve of the 2016 election Trump was trailing Hillary by landslide proportions

Bernie’s got his Bros but he isn’t going to turn the Obama-Trump voters. He has as much of a ceiling as Trump with a smaller base

Some of us were predicting Trump back in July.

Trump's effect on both bases and indies remains to be seen. Bernie wouldn't have to do much to swing a couple of rust belt states. Just showing up would be an improvement over Clinton. See Bernie's biggest win over Clinton in Michigan.

From last fall but still interesting numbers...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

[BDKJMU]

Bernie Sanders is not going to beat Trump in the general. There will be nothing to regret on the part of the Trumpies


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Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

National polls are meaningless JSO. Only polls from about 8-10 states matter...

Closest 2016 states:
Michigan 0.3 percent (Trump)
New Hampshire 0.4 percent (Clinton)
Wisconsin 1 percent (Trump)
Pennsylvania 1.2 percent (Trump)
Florida 1.2 percent (Trump)
Minnesota 1.5 percent (Clinton)
Nevada 2.4 percent (Clinton)
Maine 2.7 percent (Clinton)
North Carolina 3.8 percent (Trump)
Arizona 3.9 percent (Trump)
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run-201 ... 6-election

Before anyone says OH, Trump won OH by 8.1% in 2016..

[kalm]

Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

National polls are meaningless JSO. Only polls from about 8-10 states matter...

Closest 2016 states:
Michigan 0.3 percent (Trump)
New Hampshire 0.4 percent (Clinton)
Wisconsin 1 percent (Trump)
Pennsylvania 1.2 percent (Trump)
Florida 1.2 percent (Trump)
Minnesota 1.5 percent (Clinton)
Nevada 2.4 percent (Clinton)
Maine 2.7 percent (Clinton)
North Carolina 3.8 percent (Trump)
Arizona 3.9 percent (Trump)
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run-201 ... 6-election

Before anyone says OH, Trump won OH by 8.1% in 2016..

Hey! At least you moved on from your “tits on a bull line”!

I’m so proud of you!

[GannonFan]

Bold.

According recent general election polling from numerous sources on RCP, Trump trails the top four Dems in a vast majority and even Klobuchar in one. Not saying that won’t change but there’s a lot of game left.

National polls are meaningless JSO. Only polls from about 8-10 states matter...

Closest 2016 states:
Michigan 0.3 percent (Trump)
New Hampshire 0.4 percent (Clinton)
Wisconsin 1 percent (Trump)
Pennsylvania 1.2 percent (Trump)
Florida 1.2 percent (Trump)
Minnesota 1.5 percent (Clinton)
Nevada 2.4 percent (Clinton)
Maine 2.7 percent (Clinton)
North Carolina 3.8 percent (Trump)
Arizona 3.9 percent (Trump)
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run-201 ... 6-election

Before anyone says OH, Trump won OH by 8.1% in 2016..

I don't know about the other states, but I would be shocked if Bernie was able to flip PA from Trump. The areas with major colleges and universities are already spots that favor someone like Bernie, but the vast swath of the state would likely never vote for him. Tons of Trumpsters in PA and it's hard to see that changing with the candidates out there right now, and that even includes Bloomberg who is spending a ton in PA right now.

[JohnStOnge]

Ultimately impeachment is political. In theory, if the House and the Senate have large majorities with one party, and the President is from the other party, he could be impeached for just being insulting.

Slight quibble...and I know you already know this but just didn't type it...it's the removal that's virtually impossible. All it takes for impeachment is a simple majority of the House. Also, I don't think we have a situation where impeachment happens at the drop of a hat.

When Clinton got impeached he had lied under oath. Turns out the Senate didn't think that was sufficient to have him removed but that's not like an every day thing every President does. In Trump's case we all know that he DID try to use his office to gain personal political advantage. The Democrats didn't just start an impeachment out of thin air. They'd already opted NOT to try to impeach him even though a lot of legal scholars and former prosecutors said that the Mueller report indicated Trump obstructed Justice. But they got wind of a whistle blower thing.

I don't think what Trump was accused of...and what we all know he did do...is a small thing. It's not something every President does.

[JohnStOnge]

National polls are meaningless JSO. Only polls from about 8-10 states matter...

Closest 2016 states:
Michigan 0.3 percent (Trump)
New Hampshire 0.4 percent (Clinton)
Wisconsin 1 percent (Trump)
Pennsylvania 1.2 percent (Trump)
Florida 1.2 percent (Trump)
Minnesota 1.5 percent (Clinton)
Nevada 2.4 percent (Clinton)
Maine 2.7 percent (Clinton)
North Carolina 3.8 percent (Trump)
Arizona 3.9 percent (Trump)
https://www.usnews.com/news/the-run-201 ... 6-election

Before anyone says OH, Trump won OH by 8.1% in 2016..

I don't know about the other states, but I would be shocked if Bernie was able to flip PA from Trump. The areas with major colleges and universities are already spots that favor someone like Bernie, but the vast swath of the state would likely never vote for him. Tons of Trumpsters in PA and it's hard to see that changing with the candidates out there right now, and that even includes Bloomberg who is spending a ton in PA right now.

I think you guys over estimate Trump's strength in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He didn't win the majority of the vote in any of those States last time. As I've posted before, it was much more the Democrat losing support than it was the Republican gaining it. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Trump's performance was 2 percentage points better than Romney's while Clinton's was 4.5 percentage points worse than Obama's. If all that had happened was people switching form Democrat to Republican Clinton would have won.

Again: Trump was running against someone who was under FBI investigation during much of the campaign.

Trump is not a strong candidate. It's just a question of whether whoever the Democrats pick are even weaker than he is.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW the national popular vote is pretty predictive. Not perfectly predictive. But there have been 35 Presidential elections since we reached the point where all electors were chosen by popular vote in each State and the winner of the overall national popular vote has won 32 of them. Also, the largest popular vote deficit by which someone who won the election in spite of losing the popular vote is Trump's 2.1%.

So when you see something like, for instance, Mike Bloomberg leading Trump by 6 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average that is notable. Sanders, BTW, Sanders leads Trump by 4.3 percentage points.

I think Bloomberg is the bigger threat to Trump. He's very smart. A LOT smarter than Trump. He's willing to drill Trump. And he's got more money than the whole Republican Party has. But ANY Democrat has a shot because there is such a "anybody but Trump" sentiment in the country right now.

[JohnStOnge]

Having said that other stuff I will also say that Sanders is toxic to the Democrats. The majority of Democrats do not favor him. But we are in a situation in which, because of the number of candidates, he could win a plurality of the delegates during the Democratic primaries. Meanwhile he has started to resort to his demagoguery. Started to do things like casting other Democrats as in the pocket of billionaires. So we could have a situation where they go to the convention with Sanders having a plurality but the moderates consolidate and pick somebody else. Then we have to worry a about the Sanders nuts not supporting the Democrat nominee.