The Ukraine Crisis

[Skjellyfetti]

Lol

[Skjellyfetti]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

[SDHornet]

...much to the dismay of our local COMSYMPs like Z and the reek twins.

Funny the reeks haven't mentioned the mass civilian graves and totured corpses yet, must be too busy sloppin the Russian knob I guess..

It is indeed odd to be actively rooting for the Russians. It's almost like people consciously deciding to be Dallas Cowboys fans. Just weird.

Not cheering, just shitting on the "EuKrAiNe Is WiNnInG" narratives and other warmongering propaganda I fell for the last time we went all in on a forever war.

[houndawg]

It is indeed odd to be actively rooting for the Russians. It's almost like people consciously deciding to be Dallas Cowboys fans. Just weird.

Not cheering, just shitting on the "EuKrAiNe Is WiNnInG" narratives and other warmongering propaganda I fell for the last time we went all in on a forever war.

"..a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds..." RW Emerson

[kalm]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

That sucks dude. Sorry.

Here’s a very fascinating read on why true mobilization may be logistically impossible in the post Soviet era. The historical echoes from the October Revolution are equally as interesting. Moscow is where it’s at but does Putin really want to welcome 100,000’s of potential allies into the capital? It didn’t work out so well for Nicholas.

Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos

Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:

1) test & allocate them (who goes where)
2) train & arm them
3) quarter & feed them
4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs

In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572 ... 14598.html

[Skjellyfetti]

[houndawg]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

That sucks dude. Sorry.

Here’s a very fascinating read on why true mobilization may be logistically impossible in the post Soviet era. The historical echoes from the October Revolution are equally as interesting. Moscow is where it’s at but does Putin really want to welcome 100,000’s of potential allies into the capital? It didn’t work out so well for Nicholas.

Regarding mobilisation, Putin can declare it, indeed. But it will be a risky decision. The USSR maintained a massive infrastructure for the total mobilisation which has been mostly dismantled in post-Soviet Russia. Mobilisation is more likely to trigger political chaos

Imagine, the government declared a total mobilisation and millions of young males are drafted into the army. What next? Now you need to:

1) test & allocate them (who goes where)
2) train & arm them
3) quarter & feed them
4) place them under the capable officers and NCOs

In order to execute 1-4 in case of the war, you need to maintain massive *excessive* capacities in the peace time. And the Soviet Union, did. One reason why Soviet army was so horribly excessive is that it maintained enormous excessive capacities just in case of mobilisation.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572 ... 14598.html

The 'stans are getting restless so theres a good chance that a bunch of the mobilization will go to places like Azerbaijan of Kazahkstan instead of Ukraine.

The evidently very few capable officers and NCOs left are going to have problems trying direct troops that don't believe in the cause, just as ours did did when Vietnam began to be seen as a pointless exercise among the troops. Thats when the fraggings start- probably have already.

[GannonFan]

That sucks dude. Sorry.

Here’s a very fascinating read on why true mobilization may be logistically impossible in the post Soviet era. The historical echoes from the October Revolution are equally as interesting. Moscow is where it’s at but does Putin really want to welcome 100,000’s of potential allies into the capital? It didn’t work out so well for Nicholas.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1572 ... 14598.html

The 'stans are getting restless so theres a good chance that a bunch of the mobilization will go to places like Azerbaijan of Kazahkstan instead of Ukraine.

The evidently very few capable officers and NCOs left are going to have problems trying direct troops that don't believe in the cause, just as ours did did when Vietnam began to be seen as a pointless exercise among the troops. Thats when the fraggings start- probably have already.

Thing is, despite Ukraine's recent success, there's still a good chunk of Ukraine that is currently in Russian hands and still occupied territory, including Crimea. There's still a long way to go in Ukraine before they have all of their sovereignty returned.

[UNI88]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

That sucks Jelly! Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen.

[Skjellyfetti]

[houndawg]

The 'stans are getting restless so theres a good chance that a bunch of the mobilization will go to places like Azerbaijan of Kazahkstan instead of Ukraine.

The evidently very few capable officers and NCOs left are going to have problems trying direct troops that don't believe in the cause, just as ours did did when Vietnam began to be seen as a pointless exercise among the troops. Thats when the fraggings start- probably have already.

Thing is, despite Ukraine's recent success, there's still a good chunk of Ukraine that is currently in Russian hands and still occupied territory, including Crimea. There's still a long way to go in Ukraine before they have all of their sovereignty returned.

True dat, if they ever do - but the clock is ticking for Putin

[houndawg]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

best wishes for your family to come through this safely

[Skjellyfetti]

Rumblings of Russia moving to mobilization tomorrow. This will really test domestic support, imo. And, if the rumors of 18-65 men not being allowed out of the country is true - it's very unlikely my father-in-law sees my son until this is over.

best wishes for your family to come through this safely

That sucks Jelly! Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen.

Thanks. They're all thankfully safe. But, her family's lives on both sides have certainly been upended.

[Skjellyfetti]

[UNI88]

Are they calling up reserves or are they conscripting/shanghaiing people?

[houndawg]

Are they calling up reserves or are they conscripting/shanghaiing people?

Sounds like both.


They won't be able go trust them with live ammo though. Its fragtime

[UNI88]

Are they calling up reserves or are they conscripting/shanghaiing people?

Sounds like both.

They won't be able go trust them with live ammo though. Its fragtime

I would guess that the reserves include NCOs and possibly officers so they would be better able to create a command structure. I'm not sure how that will work for a conscripted/shanghaied army but you're correct, it could blow up in their faces.

[houndawg]

Sounds like both.

They won't be able go trust them with live ammo though. Its fragtime

I would guess that the reserves include NCOs and possibly officers so they would be better able to create a command structure. I'm not sure how that will work for a conscripted/shanghaied army but you're correct, it could blow up in their faces.

Especially with places Azerbaijan and Kazahkstan getting restless

[houndawg]

best wishes for your family to come through this safely

That sucks Jelly! Fingers crossed that it doesn't happen.

Thanks. They're all thankfully safe. But, her family's lives on both sides have certainly been upended.

[Skjellyfetti]

I would guess that the reserves include NCOs and possibly officers so they would be better able to create a command structure. I'm not sure how that will work for a conscripted/shanghaied army but you're correct, it could blow up in their faces.

You're seeing two things.

First, Russia has mandatory military service for men 18-25ish. Not everyone is called up. Not everyone that is called up goes (wealthy and middle class generally bribe their way out of it and it's *widespread*). The conscription for the mandatory military service happens in the fall and spring. So, that is happening now and is part of what you're seeing as far as conscripting in the subway and immediately drafting protestors who are arrested etc.

The big difference, though is that Russia is (supposed to be) limit itself in how they use conscripts (according to their own law... not international law or anything). They are not supposed to take part in active fighting or be deployed to combat zones. Russia has been doing that in Ukraine anyway, so not too much has changed there (though, it will be much more widespread now, imo). Conscripts have short contracts that expire. They no longer have short contracts. Mobilization extends all of the contracts indefinitely.

As far as the reserves - they're also being called up. But, the reserves are different than the reserves in the US. There are no weekend warriors. In Russia, it is anyone that has prior military experience (mostly former conscripts).

[Skjellyfetti]

[Skjellyfetti]

[Skjellyfetti]

[AZGrizFan]

Yes, yes. Those fellas should be VERY productive soldiers on the front.

[GannonFan]

Yes, yes. Those fellas should be VERY productive soldiers on the front.

It's what Russians have done for ages. Volume over quality.