Coronavirus COVID-19

[Col Hogan]

Predictive models based on hard data which effect policy which proves the models inaccurate is a good thing.

If it was a good predictive model, their past-projection would lineup exactly with known data and project from there. They don't, so the model is shit. We've been through this.

I’ve worked with models in the past...here are two things you can take to the bank...

A great model with bad data gives you crap (GI-GO)
A horrible model with absolutely the best data gives you crap.

I’m not sure which one we have here, but the original models gave us crap...

[bobbythekidd]

Since this virus attacks the respiratory system, I was wondering what the impact would be by "working out" as the virus replicates within. Would more oxygen exchange in the lungs help or hurt? Since this is a football message board, I was thinking about the risk to athletes getting back on the field.

Take it slow Bobby. Keep us posted as you are the first on the board to contract it. Good luck.

1st on the board KNOWN to contract it. I wonder if any of us had it but were asymtomatic, or just didn‘t meet the criteria to get tested? Heck, early March I had every symptom but a fever and didn’t meet the then criteria to get tested (fever and known contact to someone tested postive or travel from a then designated Level 1 country).

Best of luck Bobby. Do you have any pre existing conditions?

High BP. And I didn't say I had it. I said I might have it. Seeing the doc at 2 central.

[kalm]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

[mainejeff]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

They are trying to balance off Faux News and their 24/7 Trump Dick Sucking Fest.

[CAA Flagship]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

Yeah. This talk about the Fed's role in bringing back the economy is baffling. Usually you can hear his words and figure out what he meant to say, or should have said. Usually you can figure out the true meaning. I'm not sure about this one. The Federal Government didn't shut down the economy, and rightfully so. So I'm not sure what there is to undo other than provide advice.

This will all blow over. The CDC will issue guidance about behavior going forward. And a list of businesses will be given criteria to reopen in a calculated measure. This isn't rocket science. And it doesn't have to be perfect. I think the public will be hesitant and careful, at least for a little while. And the millions that have already been affected by the layoff will be slow to resume spending. So there will be a built in mechanism to minimize the second wave.

[mainejeff]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

So I wonder how Republicans truly feel about this? Trump HATES the United States Constitution. I believe that Republicans are in love with it....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. They also have said that state rights should supersede the power of the Federal Government.....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. You need a scorecard these days for flip flopping MAGAts.

Which is it?......we need GannonFan to spin this so I can feel better about things.

[Silenoz]

Since this virus attacks the respiratory system, I was wondering what the impact would be by "working out" as the virus replicates within. Would more oxygen exchange in the lungs help or hurt? Since this is a football message board, I was thinking about the risk to athletes getting back on the field.

Take it slow Bobby. Keep us posted as you are the first on the board to contract it. Good luck.

1st on the board KNOWN to contract it. I wonder if any of us had it but were asymtomatic, or just didn‘t meet the criteria to get tested? Heck, early March I had every symptom but a fever and didn’t meet the then criteria to get tested (fever and known contact to someone tested postive or travel from a then designated Level 1 country).

Best of luck Bobby. Do you have any pre existing conditions?

Dude, you're not asymptomatic for the ENTIRE duration of the disease.

And you'd know if you had it. Mild cases means weeks of not being able to do shit.

[Silenoz]

Guess who has 2 thumbs and possibly coronavirus? yep.

Had a low grade fever upon arrival at work 4/3, was sent home and couldn't come back to work until it went away. So for 8 days I've been sitting my essential ass in my recliner reading you guys going back and forth.

I've started showing the symptoms today. Now I'm on free vacation until I test clear!! It would be fine if I didn't start feeling like shit all of the sudden. I was feeling great last week and even started to work out again. Over a 2 hour span this morning I got absolutely roasted by a dump truck.

Be safe, wash your hands, monitor your temperature.

So, if you have it (which it sounds like you do), and you have a moderate or worse case, shit goes downhill around day 10, after you felt like you cleared the hump. I'd take it super easy for another couple days.

[CID1990]

I'll just leave this here:

Good evening, I took a few hours away from everything this evening to just chillax, so I was late in posting this up but here are today's numbers.


First the UK, the Power of Social Distancing is kicking in hard core. The US IMHE Model is still predicting some pretty cataclysmic stuff for the UK but it is trending down fast for the situation to be closer to a Lite version of a New York style cataclysm, versus one that was headed for 5X worse than New York. Here are some comparative numbers to show just how powerful and how fast & effective social distancing and stay at home orders are once they are at full power. In the UK the Peak Hospital usage date has moved up to 2 days to 4/15/20, the Hospital Bed Shortage has been cut from 85,000 beds to 46,000 beds, the ICU Bed Shortage has been cut from 24,000 to 7,400 and the ventilator shortage has been cut from 21,000 to 12,600. Additionally the projected cumulative death count through July 2020 has been cut from 66,000 to 37,500. This is a HUGE Improvement and show the power of the mitigation measures being used. My expectation is that we will see additional massive improvements over the next few days. The trends are suggesting the UK can potentially handle this in a very ugly and painful manner while still maintaining its NHS, just barely. Hopefully it will be even better. This just shows a stoic truth about the British, when they resolve to do so something with a war time effort and mobilization they do it forcefully and completely, they, of all of the western countries, have not forgot the painful lessons of world war and what it takes to win and appear to be fully engaged in winning this war now.

Now for Sweden. Things have not gotten better, they have gotten worse, far worse. The projected Peak has pushed out seven days to 5/3/2020 and its not because the curve is flattening. The projected Deficit in Hospital Beds has increased massively to 12,700 from 2,900, the projected deficit in ICU beds has shot up from 1,090 to 3,300 (Remember Sweden only has 80 ICU Beds) and the ventilator deficit has increased from 994 to just under 3,000. Additionally the projected deaths through July 2020 has skyrocketed from 4,000 to 13,250. The only good news in this is they still have a little time for social distancing to potentially blunt this, but this is looking bad, very bad. Unlike the Brits, I'm not sure what the Sweeds are doing at this point. This is the first time in over a month where Ive see the UW IMHE Projection Model accelerate after a location is in the mature portion of the infection wave of the the disease curve. About a month ago, this would happen early on in the United States when a location would refuse to social distance, but once they did, the projection started to decisively go the other way at an accelerating rate as time took hold. Again, what is happening in Sweden is decidedly NOT good. This should also be a cautionary tale for everyone in the US who wants to relax stay at home orders right now.

2) What is the Epicenter of this Pandemic? In the United States both the Media and the National Political Leadership both keep pushing the narrative that the Epicenter of the pandemic is someplace other that where it is. Fortunately in the last 48 hours the media is starting to see the error in its reporting, for whatever reason, and are starting to get closer to reporting the true Epicenter of this Pandemic - EUROPE. While the Scientist are fairly sure the evidence supports the theory that COVID-19 Started in Bats, transited to Pangolins and then transited to Human in Wuhan, China. From there there two primary expansive shots of infection from China to the rest of the world, the first a shot to Europe and the second a shot to North America. The North American Shot landed in Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Denver. It infected all of those areas and there surrounding areas but while the virus did travel outward from there, relatively speaking that travel was not very much. Now in Europe, when the disease landed there cooked off quickly, seeding the entire continent and then seeded pretty much rest of the entire world (there are a huge number of societal reason that caused this but way beyond this discussion). From the genetic sequencing of the DNA of the viral outbreak, don by amazing scientists at the Fred Hutch Cancer Center in Seattle, who are the global experts on this issue, they have shown that Europe was the key global distribution hub, so to speak, for COVID-19. The Bat in Wuhan may have been the Manufacturer and did some one off sales in East Asia (Taiwan, Japan, North Korea) and North America (Seattle, LA, SF and Denver), but that bat through it sales agents, the Pangolins and select humans, sold shipped it to its distributors in Europe, which acted like a global Amazon Prime Distribution Center and effectively using 1 hour, 2 hour, next day and 2 day delivery mechanisms over a 21 to 28 day period distributed the virus to the entire globe. An Epicenter is the central point of something, typically a difficult or unpleasant situation. 8 of the top 10 most infected places in the globe are in Europe, which is an indicator of its first to be saturated, only the US which is only #7 and Israel is #10. Europe is also the first across the board to achieve containment and down-slope on the first curve, which gives another data point of its leading status, and the truth is that pretty much everywhere in the world, except the North American West Coast and a few places in East Asia were seeded by virus strain from Europe. While Wuhan may be the beginning, it was clearly not the center of of distribution that was Europe. Europe was the Typhoid Mary in this case not China.

3) Summary Commentary on the various curves ~ for the most part all of the trends of the last few days, across the board, continued on their previous trend lines, with some unknowns for a number of jurisdictions who did not report. Those who did not report, probably did not, due to a combination of it being Sunday and Easter Holiday. Sunday is always kind of a wonky numbers day and many places don't report on Sundays. That being said there were a couple of very noticeable upticks that need to be watched in the United States: Massachusetts & Boston and the City of Chicago, all had significant upticks reversals in relation to trend, is it a one day noisy blip which happens or a signal of something else?

Pure genius

Who could have known that the world’s main travel hub (Europe) would also be the main hub for a virus to spread worldwide after exiting China

Man that’s a real revelation

Too bad it exited China while WHO was repeating Chinese talking points about human transmissibility ... then it wouldn’t be somebody else’s fault like it is now, eh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CID1990]

Good evening, I took a few hours away from everything this evening to just chillax, so I was late in posting this up but here are today's numbers.


First the UK, the Power of Social Distancing is kicking in hard core. The US IMHE Model is still predicting some pretty cataclysmic stuff for the UK but it is trending down fast for the situation to be closer to a Lite version of a New York style cataclysm, versus one that was headed for 5X worse than New York. Here are some comparative numbers to show just how powerful and how fast & effective social distancing and stay at home orders are once they are at full power. In the UK the Peak Hospital usage date has moved up to 2 days to 4/15/20, the Hospital Bed Shortage has been cut from 85,000 beds to 46,000 beds, the ICU Bed Shortage has been cut from 24,000 to 7,400 and the ventilator shortage has been cut from 21,000 to 12,600. Additionally the projected cumulative death count through July 2020 has been cut from 66,000 to 37,500. This is a HUGE Improvement and show the power of the mitigation measures being used. My expectation is that we will see additional massive improvements over the next few days. The trends are suggesting the UK can potentially handle this in a very ugly and painful manner while still maintaining its NHS, just barely. Hopefully it will be even better. This just shows a stoic truth about the British, when they resolve to do so something with a war time effort and mobilization they do it forcefully and completely, they, of all of the western countries, have not forgot the painful lessons of world war and what it takes to win and appear to be fully engaged in winning this war now.

Now for Sweden. Things have not gotten better, they have gotten worse, far worse. The projected Peak has pushed out seven days to 5/3/2020 and its not because the curve is flattening. The projected Deficit in Hospital Beds has increased massively to 12,700 from 2,900, the projected deficit in ICU beds has shot up from 1,090 to 3,300 (Remember Sweden only has 80 ICU Beds) and the ventilator deficit has increased from 994 to just under 3,000. Additionally the projected deaths through July 2020 has skyrocketed from 4,000 to 13,250. The only good news in this is they still have a little time for social distancing to potentially blunt this, but this is looking bad, very bad. Unlike the Brits, I'm not sure what the Sweeds are doing at this point. This is the first time in over a month where Ive see the UW IMHE Projection Model accelerate after a location is in the mature portion of the infection wave of the the disease curve. About a month ago, this would happen early on in the United States when a location would refuse to social distance, but once they did, the projection started to decisively go the other way at an accelerating rate as time took hold. Again, what is happening in Sweden is decidedly NOT good. This should also be a cautionary tale for everyone in the US who wants to relax stay at home orders right now.

2) What is the Epicenter of this Pandemic? In the United States both the Media and the National Political Leadership both keep pushing the narrative that the Epicenter of the pandemic is someplace other that where it is. Fortunately in the last 48 hours the media is starting to see the error in its reporting, for whatever reason, and are starting to get closer to reporting the true Epicenter of this Pandemic - EUROPE. While the Scientist are fairly sure the evidence supports the theory that COVID-19 Started in Bats, transited to Pangolins and then transited to Human in Wuhan, China. From there there two primary expansive shots of infection from China to the rest of the world, the first a shot to Europe and the second a shot to North America. The North American Shot landed in Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Denver. It infected all of those areas and there surrounding areas but while the virus did travel outward from there, relatively speaking that travel was not very much. Now in Europe, when the disease landed there cooked off quickly, seeding the entire continent and then seeded pretty much rest of the entire world (there are a huge number of societal reason that caused this but way beyond this discussion). From the genetic sequencing of the DNA of the viral outbreak, don by amazing scientists at the Fred Hutch Cancer Center in Seattle, who are the global experts on this issue, they have shown that Europe was the key global distribution hub, so to speak, for COVID-19. The Bat in Wuhan may have been the Manufacturer and did some one off sales in East Asia (Taiwan, Japan, North Korea) and North America (Seattle, LA, SF and Denver), but that bat through it sales agents, the Pangolins and select humans, sold shipped it to its distributors in Europe, which acted like a global Amazon Prime Distribution Center and effectively using 1 hour, 2 hour, next day and 2 day delivery mechanisms over a 21 to 28 day period distributed the virus to the entire globe. An Epicenter is the central point of something, typically a difficult or unpleasant situation. 8 of the top 10 most infected places in the globe are in Europe, which is an indicator of its first to be saturated, only the US which is only #7 and Israel is #10. Europe is also the first across the board to achieve containment and down-slope on the first curve, which gives another data point of its leading status, and the truth is that pretty much everywhere in the world, except the North American West Coast and a few places in East Asia were seeded by virus strain from Europe. While Wuhan may be the beginning, it was clearly not the center of of distribution that was Europe. Europe was the Typhoid Mary in this case not China.

3) Summary Commentary on the various curves ~ for the most part all of the trends of the last few days, across the board, continued on their previous trend lines, with some unknowns for a number of jurisdictions who did not report. Those who did not report, probably did not, due to a combination of it being Sunday and Easter Holiday. Sunday is always kind of a wonky numbers day and many places don't report on Sundays. That being said there were a couple of very noticeable upticks that need to be watched in the United States: Massachusetts & Boston and the City of Chicago, all had significant upticks reversals in relation to trend, is it a one day noisy blip which happens or a signal of something else?

Who is this guy you are quoting?

I dunno but China needs to get him on the payroll

Let’s not forget klam’s track record on picking non-state propaganda sources...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Who is this guy you are quoting?

I dunno but China needs to get him on the payroll

Let’s not forget klam’s track record on picking non-state propaganda sources...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah....I’m a china bot....

You mad bro? Obviously the numbers say it’s a conspiracy combining the Chinese and democratic socialists in Europe combined with the left coast of the US....

[CID1990]

I dunno but China needs to get him on the payroll

Let’s not forget klam’s track record on picking non-state propaganda sources...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah....I’m a china bot....

You mad bro? Obviously the numbers say it’s a conspiracy combining the Chinese and democratic socialists in Europe combined with the left coast of the US....

Reductio ad absurdum

That’s your continual refuge


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[89Hen]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

They are trying to balance off Faux News and their 24/7 Trump Dick Sucking Fest.

OR, Fox is trying to offset NBC, ABC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN....

indeed

[BDKJMU]

1st on the board KNOWN to contract it. I wonder if any of us had it but were asymtomatic, or just didn‘t meet the criteria to get tested? Heck, early March I had every symptom but a fever and didn’t meet the then criteria to get tested (fever and known contact to someone tested postive or travel from a then designated Level 1 country).

Best of luck Bobby. Do you have any pre existing conditions?

Dude, you're not asymptomatic for the ENTIRE duration of the disease.

And you'd know if you had it. Mild cases means weeks of not being able to do shit.

You CAN be asymptomatic for the ENTIRE duration of the disease.

25 Percent of Coronavirus Cases Never Show Symptoms
https://people.com/health/cdc-may-advis ... -symptoms/

Weeks of not being able to do shit aren't 'mild cases'. They are at least moderate. Mild cases are maybe a few days of not being able to do shit, to not even knowing you had it.

Daniel Mueller, an infectious diseases doctor at Temple University Hospital, said infected people might feel “just slightly under the weather for a few days.…

Reynold A. Panettieri Jr., vice chancellor for clinical and translational science at Rutgers University, said some mild cases last just three to four days. Others who are not sick enough for hospitalization still may have symptoms for two weeks. Presentation of the disease is, he said, “very individualistic and very heterogeneous." Some people are barely affected and some have “shaking chills” and muscle aches, he said.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronav ... 00318.html

If you have a more mild case which, again, most people do, the CDC says that you’ll likely have symptoms for a few days and feel better in a week or so

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/lifestyle/wel ... r-BB11wGVU

[SDHornet]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

The msm finally caught on the the fact that Trump speaking directly to the nation is his wheelhouse.

[SDHornet]

Since this virus attacks the respiratory system, I was wondering what the impact would be by "working out" as the virus replicates within. Would more oxygen exchange in the lungs help or hurt? Since this is a football message board, I was thinking about the risk to athletes getting back on the field.

Take it slow Bobby. Keep us posted as you are the first on the board to contract it. Good luck.

1st on the board KNOWN to contract it. I wonder if any of us had it but were asymtomatic, or just didn‘t meet the criteria to get tested? Heck, early March I had every symptom but a fever and didn’t meet the then criteria to get tested (fever and known contact to someone tested postive or travel from a then designated Level 1 country).

Best of luck Bobby. Do you have any pre existing conditions?

I suspect my wife or myself have had it. Wife had flu like symptoms in mid-March. On day 3 she called the doctor and they set up a video call. They told her she wouldn't be tested as she didn't have breathing problems and perscribed tamiflu. She was fine within 3 days of taking it.

I had a mild fever for 5 days and bloody mucus and called the doctor and had a video call. Same thing. No breathing issues so they said I wouldn't get tested but they could run blood tests if so desired. They prescribed more Tylenol but didn't seem worried. The fever finally went away early last week but still a little blood in the boogers. Meh, life goes on.

[89Hen]

The msm finally caught on the the fact that Trump speaking directly to the nation is his wheelhouse.

Yup. Jeff is definitely one of the sheep of which I spoke.

[AZGrizFan]

So watched the ABC national news tonight (Mrs likes it) and in the first 8 minutes they had video of Cuomo on three times for a total of nearly three minutes. The number of times they had Trump speaking on video during the 30 minute show.... ZERO. They put up his picture with a Tweet. They quoted him several times. But not once did they actually show him speaking. There is NO WAY this is just an accident or coincidence. Any of you sheep who think that networks like ABC aren't as biased as Fox are morons.

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

He’s 100% dead wrong. And I bet he starts walking back that bullshit almost immediately.

[SDHornet]

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

Yeah. This talk about the Fed's role in bringing back the economy is baffling. Usually you can hear his words and figure out what he meant to say, or should have said. Usually you can figure out the true meaning. I'm not sure about this one. The Federal Government didn't shut down the economy, and rightfully so. So I'm not sure what there is to undo other than provide advice.

This will all blow over. The CDC will issue guidance about behavior going forward. And a list of businesses will be given criteria to reopen in a calculated measure. This isn't rocket science. And it doesn't have to be perfect. I think the public will be hesitant and careful, at least for a little while. And the millions that have already been affected by the layoff will be slow to resume spending. So there will be a built in mechanism to minimize the second wave.

Yup. Can only think he was talking about Emergency Powers. Either way like you said, the Fed didn't shut down the economy so they can't do much to get it going again as that will be up to each individual state.

[Silenoz]

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

He’s 100% dead wrong. And I bet he starts walking back that bullshit almost immediately.

He's...uh, playing 4D chess. Because liberals... something.

Definitely not just some narcicistic old fart.

[AZGrizFan]

It’s not confirmation bias. When a model is continually wrong by magnitudes, it ceases to be a viable discussion point. IMHE is at that point. It hasn’t been CLOSE to being right since this thing started.

I suck at math and data analytics and even I understand the concepts behind predictive models using real hard data that influence public policy decision making which in turn proves those predictions false.

The delicious part is Trump is benefiting from these models too.

But yeah...the IMHE, Fred Hutch, CDC, Fauci, Neil Ferguson. and London School are a bunch of loser dumb dumbs who were proven wrong!

Go with that. You’ll be able consider yourself right for years!

When a model is updated on a given day, and THAT DAYS PREDICTION is off by over 60%, how much faith, seriously, can you put into the output? I mean, I work with models every single day. If I put out shit like that I’d be fired on the spot. And I’m not exaggerating.

Now sure, I’m not trying to predict the growth of an infectious virus, but FFS if you can’t get closer than 60% 24 hours from now you should probably reconsider the assumptions going into your model. FROM THE BEGINNING. Because something is horribly wrong with their outputs.

[AZGrizFan]

He’s 100% dead wrong. And I bet he starts walking back that bullshit almost immediately.

He's...uh, playing 4D chess. Because liberals... something.

Definitely not just some narcicistic old fart.

He can make all the federal “decrees” he wants....it’s still blustering bullshit and he’ll realize soon enough that it’s got no teeth.

[kalm]

I suck at math and data analytics and even I understand the concepts behind predictive models using real hard data that influence public policy decision making which in turn proves those predictions false.

The delicious part is Trump is benefiting from these models too.

But yeah...the IMHE, Fred Hutch, CDC, Fauci, Neil Ferguson. and London School are a bunch of loser dumb dumbs who were proven wrong!

Go with that. You’ll be able consider yourself right for years!

When a model is updated on a given day, and THAT DAYS PREDICTION is off by over 60%, how much faith, seriously, can you put into the output? I mean, I work with models every single day. If I put out shit like that I’d be fired on the spot. And I’m not exaggerating.

Now sure, I’m not trying to predict the growth of an infectious virus, but FFS if you can’t get closer than 60% 24 hours from now you should probably reconsider the assumptions going into your model. FROM THE BEGINNING. Because something is horribly wrong with their outputs.

Now do those models across hundreds of countries and regions and key factors like population density, social mores, proximity to other political jurisdictions with different policies and reaction times, testing ability, etc.

Have a better model? Please share it. Again...I’d love for the models to be wrong.

[kalm]

Yeah....I’m a china bot....

You mad bro? Obviously the numbers say it’s a conspiracy combining the Chinese and democratic socialists in Europe combined with the left coast of the US....

Reductio ad absurdum

That’s your continual refuge


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Reply in kind.

[AZGrizFan]

When a model is updated on a given day, and THAT DAYS PREDICTION is off by over 60%, how much faith, seriously, can you put into the output? I mean, I work with models every single day. If I put out shit like that I’d be fired on the spot. And I’m not exaggerating.

Now sure, I’m not trying to predict the growth of an infectious virus, but FFS if you can’t get closer than 60% 24 hours from now you should probably reconsider the assumptions going into your model. FROM THE BEGINNING. Because something is horribly wrong with their outputs.

Now do those models across hundreds of countries and regions and key factors like population density, social mores, proximity to other political jurisdictions with different policies and reaction times, testing ability, etc.

Have a better model? Please share it. Again...I’d love for the models to be wrong.

Well then you should be like a pig in shit right now....this one’s wrong in spades....I’ve never seen worse “models” that people are willing to literally turn their lives upside down for....