Tesla does it again... scores 103 out of 100

[Pwns]

I hope that Elon Musk is at least half the visionary and genius his fanboys think he is, but I have serious doubts. I think people want to believe that some kind of modern-day Archimedes or Tesla will emerge and come up with huge ideas that completely revolutionizes tech on several fronts, but the truth is that scientific and engineering frontiers are more difficult than they've ever been and that makes that a lot less likely.

We're eventually going to reach some point where limitations on physical laws and not a lack of ingenuity or enthusiasm prevents technology from progressing, and I'm thinking we might already be getting close.

Example: Rocket propulsion. SpaceX is going to need better propulsion than what's been used the last 50 years before they can even think about taking large cargos of construction equipment or whatever to the moon or to mars or whatever. You either use nuclear reactions to create thrust or you have to discover some yet-unknown energy-releasing process more powerful than any chemical reaction to do it. Thorium fission might could fit that bill, let's not bother with that. Of course, launching cars into outer space and making money by sending millionaires into orbit is a lot cooler and more profitable than working on the next generation of rocket engines.

[UNI88]

I hope that Elon Musk is at least half the visionary and genius his fanboys think he is, but I have serious doubts. I think people want to believe that some kind of modern-day Archimedes or Tesla will emerge and come up with huge ideas that completely revolutionizes tech on several fronts, but the truth is that scientific and engineering frontiers are more difficult than they've ever been and that makes that a lot less likely.

We're eventually going to reach some point where limitations on physical laws and not a lack of ingenuity or enthusiasm prevents technology from progressing, and I'm thinking we might already be getting close.

Example: Rocket propulsion. SpaceX is going to need better propulsion than what's been used the last 50 years before they can even think about taking large cargos of construction equipment or whatever to the moon or to mars or whatever. You either use nuclear reactions to create thrust or you have to discover some yet-unknown energy-releasing process more powerful than any chemical reaction to do it. Thorium fission might could fit that bill, let's not bother with that. Of course, launching cars into outer space and making money by sending millionaires into orbit is a lot cooler and more profitable than working on the next generation of rocket engines.

You're probably right about reaching a point where significant technological advances are more difficult to achieve but I'm pretty sure that we've hit what we thought were ceilings in the past only to breakthrough. It might be next year and it might be 100+ years from now but IMO we'll break through the energy/propulsion ceiling as well.

[AZGrizFan]

I hope that Elon Musk is at least half the visionary and genius his fanboys think he is, but I have serious doubts. I think people want to believe that some kind of modern-day Archimedes or Tesla will emerge and come up with huge ideas that completely revolutionizes tech on several fronts, but the truth is that scientific and engineering frontiers are more difficult than they've ever been and that makes that a lot less likely.

We're eventually going to reach some point where limitations on physical laws and not a lack of ingenuity or enthusiasm prevents technology from progressing, and I'm thinking we might already be getting close.

Example: Rocket propulsion. SpaceX is going to need better propulsion than what's been used the last 50 years before they can even think about taking large cargos of construction equipment or whatever to the moon or to mars or whatever. You either use nuclear reactions to create thrust or you have to discover some yet-unknown energy-releasing process more powerful than any chemical reaction to do it. Thorium fission might could fit that bill, let's not bother with that. Of course, launching cars into outer space and making money by sending millionaires into orbit is a lot cooler and more profitable than working on the next generation of rocket engines.

You're probably right about reaching a point where significant technological advances are more difficult to achieve but I'm pretty sure that we've hit what we thought were ceilings in the past only to breakthrough. It might be next year and it might be 100+ years from now but IMO we'll break through the energy/propulsion ceiling as well.

I’ll take the “under” on 100 years, Alex. Famous quotes:

Charles Duell, Commissioner, US Patent Office: “Everything that can be invented has been invented” - spoken in 1899

Thomas Watson, President, IBM: “i think there’s world market for about five computers” - spoken in 1949

The pace of discovery and invention and technology advances is ACCELERATING, not decreasing.

While the below is an except from a fiction book, there’s a lot of truth to the statement, and although I’m not certain about the accuracy of the timeline, the point remains (particularly the second paragraph):

“Consider this! It took early humans over a million years to progress from discovering fire to inventing the wheel. Then it took only a few thousand years to invent the printing press. Then it took only a couple hundred years to build a telescope. In the centuries that followed, in ever-shortening spans, we bounded from the steam engine, to gas-powered automobiles, to the Space Shuttle! And then, it took only two decades for us to start modifying our own DNA! We now measure scientific progress in months, advancing at a mind-boggling pace. It will not take long before today’s fastest supercomputer will look like an abacus; today’s most advanced surgical methods will seem barbaric; and today’s energy sources will seem as quaint to us as using a candle to light a room!

The early Greeks had to look back centuries to study ancient culture, but we need look back only a single generation to find those who lived without the technologies we take for granted today. The timeline of human development is compressing; the space that separates ‘ancient’ and ‘modern’ is shrinking to nothing at all.”

Excerpt From
Origin
Dan Brown
This material may be protected by copyright.

[Pwns]

I’ll take the “under” on 100 years, Alex. Famous quotes:

Charles Duell, Commissioner, US Patent Office: “Everything that can be invented has been invented” - spoken in 1899

Thomas Watson, President, IBM: “i think there’s world market for about five computers” - spoken in 1949

True.

On the other hand, where are the flying cars, robot maids (I'm talking about like the Jetsons), interstellar travel, designer babies, fusion energy, and anti-gravity devices? I wonder how many of the "futurists" 30 years ago envisioned 2020 looking as low-tech as it's actually going to be?

As far as computers go, for a while there was a time when you could buy a computer and its hardware would be obsolete in less than two years. I bought my machine in 2013 and the hardware on most stuff you buy today isn't even better, just cheaper. There's only so small you can make the transistors before you reach the physical limits, and keeping the processor cool is also a big challenge.

[AZGrizFan]

We have those things...just currently few can afford them

[BDKJMU]

Uh oh..
"Wall Street analysts tore down a Tesla Model 3 and found 'significant fit & finish issues'

UBS has published the final lap of its complete teardown and analysis of a Tesla Model 3 to compare it to the competition.

Despite winning the first two laps — powertrain and electronics — the bank said Elon Musk’s newest sedan came in last place behind the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 when it came to build quality......"
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1027480762

[CID1990]

Uh oh..
"Wall Street analysts tore down a Tesla Model 3 and found 'significant fit & finish issues'

UBS has published the final lap of its complete teardown and analysis of a Tesla Model 3 to compare it to the competition.

Despite winning the first two laps — powertrain and electronics — the bank said Elon Musk’s newest sedan came in last place behind the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 when it came to build quality......"
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1027480762

I’m wondering what happened there

The first Teslas are solid as hell. Now they come out with this economy version and they didn’t use the same design techniques?

[BDKJMU]

Uh oh..
"Wall Street analysts tore down a Tesla Model 3 and found 'significant fit & finish issues'

UBS has published the final lap of its complete teardown and analysis of a Tesla Model 3 to compare it to the competition.

Despite winning the first two laps — powertrain and electronics — the bank said Elon Musk’s newest sedan came in last place behind the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 when it came to build quality......"
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1027480762

I’m wondering what happened there

The first Teslas are solid as hell. Now they come out with this economy version and they didn’t use the same design techniques?

Must have rushed it. Sounds like come hell or high water, they were going to make production #s & deadlines, ready or not.

Tesla insiders say ‘it’s a s–t show’ under beleaguered Elon Musk
https://nypost.com/2018/08/23/tesla-ins ... elon-musk/

[93henfan]

And the hits keep coming:

The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Tesla's CEO on Thursday for making "false and misleading" statements to investors. It's asking a federal judge to prevent Musk from serving as an officer or a director of a public company, among other penalties.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/27/techno ... index.html

[Chizzang]

And the hits keep coming:

The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Tesla's CEO on Thursday for making "false and misleading" statements to investors. It's asking a federal judge to prevent Musk from serving as an officer or a director of a public company, among other penalties.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/27/techno ... index.html

He deserves to get his ass kicked for the "Taking it private" tweet...
You can tweet all the lies you want in politics

But you better not lie to Wall Street

[Ivytalk]

And the hits keep coming:

The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Tesla's CEO on Thursday for making "false and misleading" statements to investors. It's asking a federal judge to prevent Musk from serving as an officer or a director of a public company, among other penalties.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/27/techno ... index.html

Tesla stock might be in for another rough day.

[CAA Flagship]

Twitter: Allowing people to self-destruct since 2006.

[GannonFan]

Twitter: Allowing people to self-destruct since 2006.

Yup, Twitter brought the anonymity of newspaper comment section unintelligible rants and raves out into the open - double edge sword. Now we know who the dopes are, but the number of crazy folks has exponentially increased. Ignorance was bliss in this case, I liked pretending there weren't so many loons out there.

[mainejeff]

So glad that I got out of Tesla earlier this year! It's replacement in my portfolio....Square....has been very good to me.

[mainejeff]

Twitter: Allowing people to self-destruct since 2006.

Yup, Twitter brought the anonymity of newspaper comment section unintelligible rants and raves out into the open - double edge sword. Now we know who the dopes are, but the number of crazy folks has exponentially increased. Ignorance was bliss in this case, I liked pretending there weren't so many loons out there.

I'm glad that everyone is exposed! We've always known about the Loony Left.....now we know about the Crazy Conks that once operated in the shadows.

[Pwns]

I really want to believe that Musk is what so many think he is, but it's just too hard, and this plus the bizarre incident with the pod to rescue the Thai kids in the cave really kind of solidifies in my mind he's just an attention whore with a huge ego that's good at getting investors and government bureaucrats into thinking he's some kind of modern-day Tesla.

[GannonFan]

Yup, Twitter brought the anonymity of newspaper comment section unintelligible rants and raves out into the open - double edge sword. Now we know who the dopes are, but the number of crazy folks has exponentially increased. Ignorance was bliss in this case, I liked pretending there weren't so many loons out there.

I'm glad that everyone is exposed! We've always known about the Loony Left.....now we know about the Crazy Conks that once operated in the shadows.

Nah, anybody and everybody was hiding in those newspaper comment sections just 10-15 years ago - it varied by paper or website, obviously, but there were always whackos, in even proportion, on both sides. I'm not sure we're all better off with the transparency. Because so many people are whackos, it doesn't seem to be shaming anyone to act like one now. Strength in numbers apparently.

[mainejeff]

I'm glad that everyone is exposed! We've always known about the Loony Left.....now we know about the Crazy Conks that once operated in the shadows.

Nah, anybody and everybody was hiding in those newspaper comment sections just 10-15 years ago - it varied by paper or website, obviously, but there were always whackos, in even proportion, on both sides. I'm not sure we're all better off with the transparency. Because so many people are whackos, it doesn't seem to be shaming anyone to act like one now. Strength in numbers apparently.

At least we now know who our enemies are...sometimes our own family and friends!

[Chizzang]

I really want to believe that Musk is what so many think he is, but it's just too hard, and this plus the bizarre incident with the pod to rescue the Thai kids in the cave really kind of solidifies in my mind he's just an attention whore with a huge ego that's good at getting investors and government bureaucrats into thinking he's some kind of modern-day Tesla.

Hey Pwns... Nice ^ dullard post
There are more shades than BLACK or WHITE

What if he really is a 140+ IQ (Verified) check
A conceptual genius (Verified) check
and a flake with a series of drug problems (verified) check
and like every other corporate leader he lies to investors (verified) check

He can be all of those things simultaneously
and still safely disappoint you and your lofty standards of human character

Think of Elon as the Joel Ostein of Corporate America
Having both alarming flaws and great potential
Can you wrap your head around that

[Pwns]

I really want to believe that Musk is what so many think he is, but it's just too hard, and this plus the bizarre incident with the pod to rescue the Thai kids in the cave really kind of solidifies in my mind he's just an attention whore with a huge ego that's good at getting investors and government bureaucrats into thinking he's some kind of modern-day Tesla.

Hey Pwns... Nice ^ dullard post
There are more shades than BLACK or WHITE

What if he really is a 140+ IQ (Verified) check
A conceptual genius (Verified) check
and a flake with a series of drug problems (verified) check
and like every other corporate leader he lies to investors (verified) check

He can be all of those things simultaneously
and still safely disappoint you and your lofty standards of human character

Think of Elon as the Joel Ostein of Corporate America
Can you wrap your head around that
having both alarming flaws and great potential

Honestly, I'm not expecting the guy to be Christ or even like Carl Sagan. I actually find eccentric and misfit geniuses to be fascinating. I can forgive lots of character flaws if I actually thought the guy was really doing revolutionary stuff, but I don't.

SpaceX is basically going to deal with the same conundrums NASA did for a long time as long as we're using combustion as a fuel source...if you want bigger cargos you need more fuel, which requires bigger rockets, which in turn requires more fuel. The only way forward is to go with fuel sources that give off more energy per pound...meaning nuclear reactions. Build a rocket engine that does that and I'll be more impressed than I am with putting a car into orbit. Musk isn't going to figure out a way to work around thermodynamic realities. The end.

I'll give Musk credit for capitalizing on having an administration eager to hand out lots of money to "green technology" and starting a successful electric car company, but not much else. As long as there's enough yuppies who get warm fuzzies from charging their cars in their coal-fired power grid while looking down their noses at the plebeians filling up their cars with gas, Tesla will stay afloat.

The comparison to Osteen seems appropriate...Musk is a talented businessman and pied piper, he's just not going to change the world.

[CAA Flagship]

So glad that I got out of Tesla earlier this year! It's replacement in my portfolio....Square....has been very good to me.

I did a quick trade on SQ. Should have kept it longer.

[Chizzang]

Hey Pwns... Nice ^ dullard post
There are more shades than BLACK or WHITE

What if he really is a 140+ IQ (Verified) check
A conceptual genius (Verified) check
and a flake with a series of drug problems (verified) check
and like every other corporate leader he lies to investors (verified) check

He can be all of those things simultaneously
and still safely disappoint you and your lofty standards of human character

Think of Elon as the Joel Ostein of Corporate America
Can you wrap your head around that
having both alarming flaws and great potential

Honestly, I'm not expecting the guy to be Christ or even like Carl Sagan. I actually find eccentric and misfit geniuses to be fascinating. I can forgive lots of character flaws if I actually thought the guy was really doing revolutionary stuff, but I don't.

SpaceX is basically going to deal with the same conundrums NASA did for a long time as long as we're using combustion as a fuel source...if you want bigger cargos you need more fuel, which requires bigger rockets, which in turn requires more fuel. The only way forward is to go with fuel sources that give off more energy per pound...meaning nuclear reactions. Build a rocket engine that does that and I'll be more impressed than I am with putting a car into orbit. Musk isn't going to figure out a way to work around thermodynamic realities. The end.

I'll give Musk credit for capitalizing on having an administration eager to hand out lots of money to "green technology" and starting a successful electric car company, but not much else. As long as there's enough yuppies who get warm fuzzies from charging their cars in their coal-fired power grid while looking down their noses at the plebeians filling up their cars with gas, Tesla will stay afloat.

The comparison to Osteen seems appropriate...Musk is a talented businessman and pied piper, he's just not going to change the world.

A few things:
Firstly I think you misunderstand what SpaceX is

SpaceX is an independently owned NASA contractor
Delivering requested technologies that NASA has been unable to successfully deploy

Exhibit A
Recoverable, reusable rocket stages
Controllable Devices that touch down on dry land just a few miles from the launch site
These have been fantasized about since the 50's
SpaceX was the first to accomplish this feat

Anything beyond being a valued contractor for NASA is speculation
As they are a private company with relatively private goals

Secondly,
Tesla is in a nightmare situation - no doubt - but their accomplishments are far beyond "warm and fuzzy"
The Model S is considered one of the best electric cars in the world
It sits atop the Luxury Class by all metrics
Ranking higher than anything made by industry giants BMW / Volkswagon / Nissan / General Motors and Ford

No small accomplishment by any reasonable standard
5 years ago BMW engineers lauded the Model S as revolutionary
and said it was years ahead of their 300 man electric car teams offerings

Ponder that...

Play Elon down all you want as a nut and an egocentric
But he's going down in history as one of the worlds greatest innovators
and his drug addiction and insanity only diminish his accomplishments to those who know little

[CAA Flagship]

Exhibit A
Recoverable, reusable rocket stages
Controllable Devices that touch down on dry land just a few miles from the launch site
These have been fantasized about since the 50's
SpaceX was the first to accomplish this feat

I have always wondered about the numbers on that. I love to see what the savings actually are considering the technology necessary to pull it off (versus the cost of new components). And maybe there aren't much savings now but can be in the future with more flights.

[Chizzang]

Exhibit A
Recoverable, reusable rocket stages
Controllable Devices that touch down on dry land just a few miles from the launch site
These have been fantasized about since the 50's
SpaceX was the first to accomplish this feat

I have always wondered about the numbers on that. I love to see what the savings actually are considering the technology necessary to pull it off (versus the cost of new components). And maybe there aren't much savings now but can be in the future with more flights.

The coolest thing is the new one they just fired has a 72 hour turnaround time...
It can deliver a payload into orbit on a Monday - land across the street from the launch site that afternoon
perform it's self diagnostics test in 2 hours
Reload new coordinates and load calculations the following day
Provide a data sheet for physical inspection within 12 hours of touch down
and be flight ready on Thursday 0600


NASA is thrilled
BTW: I can't even get my girlfriends vagina turnaround times this quickly

[Pwns]

A few things:
Firstly I think you misunderstand what SpaceX is

SpaceX is an independently owned NASA contractor
Delivering requested technologies that NASA has been unable to successfully deploy

Exhibit A
Recoverable, reusable rocket stages
Controllable Devices that touch down on dry land just a few miles from the launch site
These have been fantasized about since the 50's
SpaceX was the first to accomplish this feat

Anything beyond being a valued contractor for NASA is speculation
As they are a private company with relatively private goals

Secondly,
Tesla is in a nightmare situation - no doubt - but their accomplishments are far beyond "warm and fuzzy"
The Model S is considered one of the best electric cars in the world
It sits atop the Luxury Class by all metrics
Ranking higher than anything made by industry giants BMW / Volkswagon / Nissan / General Motors and Ford

No small accomplishment by any reasonable standard
5 years ago BMW engineers lauded the Model S as revolutionary
and said it was years ahead of their 300 man electric car teams offerings

Ponder that...

Play Elon down all you want as a nut and an egocentric
But he's going down in history as one of the worlds greatest innovators
and his drug addiction and insanity only diminish his accomplishments to those who know little

Chizz, the space shuttle was designed in the late 1970s with an orbiter and SRBs that were reusable, and it was in use for 30+ years and to my knowledge NASA never really did much further developing spacecraft. I would hope that SpaceX could do some things NASA wasn't able to after all those years of stagnation. They did, but in the grand scheme of things those things you list aren't really a big deal.

SpaceX's innovations might make repairing satellites cheaper and profit from sending millionaires into orbit, but this stuff about sending construction equipment to the moon or Mars is silly talk until we start using more energy-dense fuel. It takes a space shuttle weighing several million pounds including fuel to launch 50,000 pounds of payload. The fully-loaded Saturn V that took a tiny capsule and 3 guys to the moon was even heavier.

I also get that people love their Teslas, but for more practical people that don't care about spending an arm and a leg on a car that's a status symbol, it's not going to sell and it's not a practical solution to reducing CO2 emissions.

"worlds greatest innovator" is pushing it.