Coronavirus COVID-19

[kalm]

Now do those models across hundreds of countries and regions and key factors like population density, social mores, proximity to other political jurisdictions with different policies and reaction times, testing ability, etc.

Have a better model? Please share it. Again...I’d love for the models to be wrong.

Well then you should be like a pig in shit right now....this one’s wrong in spades....I’ve never seen worse “models” that people are willing to literally turn their lives upside down for....

So come up with a better one. Ready, set, go!

[AZGrizFan]

Well then you should be like a pig in shit right now....this one’s wrong in spades....I’ve never seen worse “models” that people are willing to literally turn their lives upside down for....

So come up with a better one. Ready, set, go!

I predict tomorrow there are approximately 25,000 more cases than today. Approximately 1400 more deaths.

There. I’m already an order of magnitude closer than UW.

[CID1990]

Reductio ad absurdum

That’s your continual refuge


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Reply in kind.

I never said or implied what you claimed. You made it up - I have not engaged in any fallacious logic so I’ll take your “reply in kind” retort in the same vein

Your “friend” sure put out a lot of word salad just to get to a veiled defense of China which amounted to the “well duh” claim that Europe is the travel hub of the world

Stop making passive aggressive defenses of China. They did precisely the same thing that they did with SARS. This check has been in the mail for quite some time. The EU and the US’s failures in this have been not to view the Chinese government for the threat that it is when it comes to protecting its own political hegemony over the threat from viral pathogens

Your “friend” is literally parroting diplomatic talking points from Beijing that are being used as we speak. I’m not implying that he is some kind of agent for China but I AM implying that he is being influenced by obvious Chinese propaganda.

He is literally saying to forget how the virus got to the EU and focus on how it spread once it got there. That’s the China line exactly


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[AZGrizFan]

Klammy, here’s a prefect example of the lunacy of the UW model....it’s predicting 5426 deaths in Connecticut alone by August, but then has a range of probability anywhere between 1,500 and 15,000 deaths. Fifteen Hundred to FIFTEEN THOUSAND. With a fucking range like that how can they possibly be “wrong”?

BTW: Connecticut currently has 602 deaths (of course, we’ll never know how many died FROM COVID-19 and how many simply died WITH COVID-19.

[AZGrizFan]

Here’s a perfect example of the fear porn being peddled by the “experts” using UW’s model:



On April 2nd, so exactly two weeks ago, they were predicting 300 deaths per day in Alabama by now because of its slow, shitty response to shutting down the state. Alabama was going to need 27,500 BEDS. Guess how many deaths Alabama has to date: 102. Total. And only 3800 cases total.

Tennessee was going to have 200 deaths per day by now because they didn’t shut down until 3/30. Tennessee has 109 deaths TOTAL.

And Kentucky was going to be the model because they shut down so early. Guess how many deaths they have experienced? 106. So at the end of the day, virtually NO DIFFERENCE in these three states despite varying degrees of knee jerk response to the virus.

And the key thing here: THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WITH THE STATES’ RECENT SOCIAL DISTANCING BEING BAKED INTO THE NEW FORECASTS.

Their fear mongering is so obvious as to be comical if it wasn’t destroying the country.

[CAA Flagship]

Bouncing around the channels last night while waiting for Better Call Saul to come on. Several takeaways:
- Typical flu tests are only around 70% accurate
- Typical flu vaccines are only 60-90% effective
- The same COVID-19 test gave two false negatives before finally giving a positive on a patient
- MSNBC is really rooting against Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment.

[kalm]

Here’s a perfect example of the fear porn being peddled by the “experts” using UW’s model:



On April 2nd, so exactly two weeks ago, they were predicting 300 deaths per day in Alabama by now because of its slow, shitty response to shutting down the state. Alabama was going to need 27,500 BEDS. Guess how many deaths Alabama has to date: 102. Total. And only 3800 cases total.

Tennessee was going to have 200 deaths per day by now because they didn’t shut down until 3/30. Tennessee has 109 deaths TOTAL.

And Kentucky was going to be the model because they shut down so early. Guess how many deaths they have experienced? 106. So at the end of the day, virtually NO DIFFERENCE in these three states despite varying degrees of knee jerk response to the virus.

And the key thing here: THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WITH THE STATES’ RECENT SOCIAL DISTANCING BEING BAKED INTO THE NEW FORECASTS.

Their fear mongering is so obvious as to be comical if it wasn’t destroying the country.

Sigh.....

What do those state numbers look like today? How about population densities? Super spreader contacts? Self imposed social distancing before state rules were put in place?

It’s a predictive model designed to inform policy based on past numbers, current trajectories, and that improves with data. The Trump administration uses it.

Like I’ve said, everyone wants it to be wrong in a downward trend way.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spokes ... ontent=amp

[kalm]

Reply in kind.

I never said or implied what you claimed. You made it up - I have not engaged in any fallacious logic so I’ll take your “reply in kind” retort in the same vein

Your “friend” sure put out a lot of word salad just to get to a veiled defense of China which amounted to the “well duh” claim that Europe is the travel hub of the world

Stop making passive aggressive defenses of China. They did precisely the same thing that they did with SARS. This check has been in the mail for quite some time. The EU and the US’s failures in this have been not to view the Chinese government for the threat that it is when it comes to protecting its own political hegemony over the threat from viral pathogens

Your “friend” is literally parroting diplomatic talking points from Beijing that are being used as we speak. I’m not implying that he is some kind of agent for China but I AM implying that he is being influenced by obvious Chinese propaganda.

He is literally saying to forget how the virus got to the EU and focus on how it spread once it got there. That’s the China line exactly


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I’m sorry you don’t like numbers. And he’s not a fan of China either just like you.

[CID1990]

I never said or implied what you claimed. You made it up - I have not engaged in any fallacious logic so I’ll take your “reply in kind” retort in the same vein

Your “friend” sure put out a lot of word salad just to get to a veiled defense of China which amounted to the “well duh” claim that Europe is the travel hub of the world

Stop making passive aggressive defenses of China. They did precisely the same thing that they did with SARS. This check has been in the mail for quite some time. The EU and the US’s failures in this have been not to view the Chinese government for the threat that it is when it comes to protecting its own political hegemony over the threat from viral pathogens

Your “friend” is literally parroting diplomatic talking points from Beijing that are being used as we speak. I’m not implying that he is some kind of agent for China but I AM implying that he is being influenced by obvious Chinese propaganda.

He is literally saying to forget how the virus got to the EU and focus on how it spread once it got there. That’s the China line exactly


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I’m sorry you don’t like numbers. And he’s not a fan of China either just like you.

Numbers have nothing to do with it

Your genius friend basically spilled a gallon of ink to tell us water is wet, klam

Actually I need to go to the Kryptonite thread and update my answer

Mine is “cunts who insult my intelligence”

[AZGrizFan]

Here’s a perfect example of the fear porn being peddled by the “experts” using UW’s model:



On April 2nd, so exactly two weeks ago, they were predicting 300 deaths per day in Alabama by now because of its slow, shitty response to shutting down the state. Alabama was going to need 27,500 BEDS. Guess how many deaths Alabama has to date: 102. Total. And only 3800 cases total.

Tennessee was going to have 200 deaths per day by now because they didn’t shut down until 3/30. Tennessee has 109 deaths TOTAL.

And Kentucky was going to be the model because they shut down so early. Guess how many deaths they have experienced? 106. So at the end of the day, virtually NO DIFFERENCE in these three states despite varying degrees of knee jerk response to the virus.

And the key thing here: THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WITH THE STATES’ RECENT SOCIAL DISTANCING BEING BAKED INTO THE NEW FORECASTS.

Their fear mongering is so obvious as to be comical if it wasn’t destroying the country.

Sigh.....

What do those state numbers look like today? How about population densities? Super spreader contacts? Self imposed social distancing before state rules were put in place?

It’s a predictive model designed to inform policy based on past numbers, current trajectories, and that improves with data. The Trump administration uses it.

Like I’ve said, everyone wants it to be wrong in a downward trend way.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spokes ... ontent=amp

Read my post, jagoff. It tells you EXACTLY what those states' numbers are today....and newsflash: They're NOTHING like what the model predicted. They should have bodies piling up in the STREETS right now if the model had been anywhere correct....as it is, they all have barely 100 deaths total (not the "hundreds per day" that they were certainly going to be experiencing).

This "predictive" model should find a new line of work....

[AZGrizFan]

Hospitals so overwhelmed they're furloughing workers across the country....

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/f ... id-19.html

[CID1990]

Thank god this is FINALLY open source


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... naviruses/

There is a reason China covered this thing up until it was too late to contain it

It was an accident, but not the kind we think. Which is why the Xi regime was keen to minimize it

[kalm]

I’m sorry you don’t like numbers. And he’s not a fan of China either just like you.

Numbers have nothing to do with it

Your genius friend basically spilled a gallon of ink to tell us water is wet, klam

Actually I need to go to the Kryptonite thread and update my answer

Mine is “cunts who insult my intelligence”

So you get angry at things you agree with that weren’t even necessarily intended for you?

Interesting.

[kalm]

Sigh.....

What do those state numbers look like today? How about population densities? Super spreader contacts? Self imposed social distancing before state rules were put in place?

It’s a predictive model designed to inform policy based on past numbers, current trajectories, and that improves with data. The Trump administration uses it.

Like I’ve said, everyone wants it to be wrong in a downward trend way.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spokes ... ontent=amp

Read my post, jagoff. It tells you EXACTLY what those states' numbers are today....and newsflash: They're NOTHING like what the model predicted. They should have bodies piling up in the STREETS right now if the model had been anywhere correct....as it is, they all have barely 100 deaths total (not the "hundreds per day" that they were certainly going to be experiencing).

This "predictive" model should find a new line of work....

The early models (the big curve part) were predicated on worse case scenarios if nothing was implemented. The smaller curves were the predictions if social D was used. The curves have flattened further and quicker with social D WHICH IS A GOOD THING AND PARTLY DUE TO BOTH SOCIAL D AND THE MODELS TGAT GUIDED IT. There are outliers that they’ll continue to study.



India just extended its mitigation measures for 1.3 billion people again. Because, you know, the experts and their models are all wrong and such.

A study out of NY of hospitalized pregnant women shows a 15% rate of infection with 13% being asymptomatic but hey! We know all we need to about this, it’s time to go back to normal.

[CID1990]

Numbers have nothing to do with it

Your genius friend basically spilled a gallon of ink to tell us water is wet, klam

Actually I need to go to the Kryptonite thread and update my answer

Mine is “cunts who insult my intelligence”

So you get angry at things you agree with that weren’t even necessarily intended for you?

Interesting.

So since my substantive reply to that pablum you posted... you have replied 3 times:

1) the simplest and second most common logical fallacy (after ad hominem)

2) an analogue to “sticks and stones”

3) I never meant it for you stay off my sandbox

I like convos with you klam, they are nostalgic in that I feel like Im in the 3rd grade again

[GannonFan]

I never said or implied what you claimed. You made it up - I have not engaged in any fallacious logic so I’ll take your “reply in kind” retort in the same vein

Your “friend” sure put out a lot of word salad just to get to a veiled defense of China which amounted to the “well duh” claim that Europe is the travel hub of the world

Stop making passive aggressive defenses of China. They did precisely the same thing that they did with SARS. This check has been in the mail for quite some time. The EU and the US’s failures in this have been not to view the Chinese government for the threat that it is when it comes to protecting its own political hegemony over the threat from viral pathogens

Your “friend” is literally parroting diplomatic talking points from Beijing that are being used as we speak. I’m not implying that he is some kind of agent for China but I AM implying that he is being influenced by obvious Chinese propaganda.

He is literally saying to forget how the virus got to the EU and focus on how it spread once it got there. That’s the China line exactly


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I’m sorry you don’t like numbers. And he’s not a fan of China either just like you.

Any chance this "friend" of yours used to go by the name of "ralph"?

[kalm]

So you get angry at things you agree with that weren’t even necessarily intended for you?

Interesting.

So since my substantive reply to that pablum you posted... you have replied 3 times:

1) the simplest and second most common logical fallacy (after ad hominem)

2) an analogue to “sticks and stones”

3) I never meant it for you stay off my sandbox

I like convos with you klam, they are nostalgic in that I feel like Im in the 3rd grade again

Thanks! You must have enjoyed 3rd grade immensely.

By the way, I like you too, CID!.

[CID1990]

So since my substantive reply to that pablum you posted... you have replied 3 times:

1) the simplest and second most common logical fallacy (after ad hominem)

2) an analogue to “sticks and stones”

3) I never meant it for you stay off my sandbox

I like convos with you klam, they are nostalgic in that I feel like Im in the 3rd grade again

Thanks! You must have enjoyed 3rd grade immensely.

By the way, I like you too, CID!.

A simple “you’re right” will suffice


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[GannonFan]

Here’s video from Trump today....

Yikes!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... 7b8ba.html

Pressed on how he will force governors to re-open their state economies during the coronavirus crisis, President Trump said at a press briefing Monday: "When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total."

Why it matters: It's not totally clear under what authority Trump is talking about, as the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution gives states the "police powers" to regulate behavior during a public health crisis.

Asked who told him that the president has this authority, Trump responded: "We are going to write up papers on this. It's not going to be necessary because the governors need us one way or the other. Because ultimately it comes with the federal government."

So I wonder how Republicans truly feel about this? Trump HATES the United States Constitution. I believe that Republicans are in love with it....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. They also have said that state rights should supersede the power of the Federal Government.....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. You need a scorecard these days for flip flopping MAGAts.

Which is it?......we need GannonFan to spin this so I can feel better about things.

Uh, you really don't see the flip flopping going on from both sides? GOP today is about federal power whereas previously, under a Dem president, they would emphasize states rights. Dems have done and are now doing the same thing. It's a political duopoly, both parties pretty much switch sides of most arguments depending who's in power. If you're criticizing one side for doing it and not recognizing the other side for doing the same, then in the spirit of Jeff Foxworthy, you're a partisan.

[GannonFan]

Thanks! You must have enjoyed 3rd grade immensely.

By the way, I like you too, CID!.

A simple “you’re right” will suffice


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Social distancing is apparently having an impact on kalmie - he's gotten more stir-crazy with each day of quarantine. He'll be more reasonable again once he's able to go back to his golf course. Assuming the Neanderthals from Idaho haven't built-up a stronger version of the covid virus as they run rampant around their own state.

[CID1990]

A simple “you’re right” will suffice


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Social distancing is apparently having an impact on kalmie - he's gotten more stir-crazy with each day of quarantine. He'll be more reasonable again once he's able to go back to his golf course. Assuming the Neanderthals from Idaho haven't built-up a stronger version of the covid virus as they run rampant around their own state.

When all is said and done, I am afraid that social distancing and closure are going to be seen as having been a mistake...

I think we have kept our medical infrastructure from being inundated, but the virus is still with us and restrictions arent going to work unless they are in place until a vaccine is available

in other words, choose your poison..

economic ruin, OR really push gramma and granpa off the cliff in wheelchairs

(like the DNC said Mitt was gonna do)


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[AZGrizFan]

Read my post, jagoff. It tells you EXACTLY what those states' numbers are today....and newsflash: They're NOTHING like what the model predicted. They should have bodies piling up in the STREETS right now if the model had been anywhere correct....as it is, they all have barely 100 deaths total (not the "hundreds per day" that they were certainly going to be experiencing).

This "predictive" model should find a new line of work....

The early models (the big curve part) were predicated on worse case scenarios if nothing was implemented. The smaller curves were the predictions if social D was used. The curves have flattened further and quicker with social D WHICH IS A GOOD THING AND PARTLY DUE TO BOTH SOCIAL D AND THE MODELS TGAT GUIDED IT. There are outliers that they’ll continue to study.



India just extended its mitigation measures for 1.3 billion people again. Because, you know, the experts and their models are all wrong and such.

A study out of NY of hospitalized pregnant women shows a 15% rate of infection with 13% being asymptomatic but hey! We know all we need to about this, it’s time to go back to normal.

Incorrect, Grasshopper. That's not the way those models work. The "range of uncertainty" is adjusted each time there's a new model put out. Those aren't the "old" ranges. Those are NEW ranges of uncertainty given THAT DAY'S information. With all the NEW information incorporated. Including all the social distancing. It's already incorporated into the model and their predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Like two weeks ago predicting Alabama and Tennessee piling up hundreds of bodies a DAY because of their stupid lack of social distancing and shutdown rules, which has just absolutely not happened. Their predictions are almost ALWAYS on the high side, promoting fear, panic, etc., for no good reason.

[kalm]

So I wonder how Republicans truly feel about this? Trump HATES the United States Constitution. I believe that Republicans are in love with it....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. They also have said that state rights should supersede the power of the Federal Government.....or at least that is what they have said under Dem Presidents. You need a scorecard these days for flip flopping MAGAts.

Which is it?......we need GannonFan to spin this so I can feel better about things.

Uh, you really don't see the flip flopping going on from both sides? GOP today is about federal power whereas previously, under a Dem president, they would emphasize states rights. Dems have done and are now doing the same thing. It's a political duopoly, both parties pretty much switch sides of most arguments depending who's in power. If you're criticizing one side for doing it and not recognizing the other side for doing the same, then in the spirit of Jeff Foxworthy, you're a partisan.

Yep. Also see free trade.

[GannonFan]

Uh, you really don't see the flip flopping going on from both sides? GOP today is about federal power whereas previously, under a Dem president, they would emphasize states rights. Dems have done and are now doing the same thing. It's a political duopoly, both parties pretty much switch sides of most arguments depending who's in power. If you're criticizing one side for doing it and not recognizing the other side for doing the same, then in the spirit of Jeff Foxworthy, you're a partisan.

Yep. Also see free trade.

Yup, that's a classic one - if you're in power, you're a free-trader, and if you're out of power you drum up support by being a rabid anti-free trader. Unless you're Trump, and then you just flit back and forth on whatever Twitter feed you're following that day (although I'll say in his defense, he's been more consistent about his position on this than others - helps to have that catchy "America First" slogan to steer you to consistency - for good or ill).

[GannonFan]

The early models (the big curve part) were predicated on worse case scenarios if nothing was implemented. The smaller curves were the predictions if social D was used. The curves have flattened further and quicker with social D WHICH IS A GOOD THING AND PARTLY DUE TO BOTH SOCIAL D AND THE MODELS TGAT GUIDED IT. There are outliers that they’ll continue to study.



India just extended its mitigation measures for 1.3 billion people again. Because, you know, the experts and their models are all wrong and such.

A study out of NY of hospitalized pregnant women shows a 15% rate of infection with 13% being asymptomatic but hey! We know all we need to about this, it’s time to go back to normal.

Incorrect, Grasshopper. That's not the way those models work. The "range of uncertainty" is adjusted each time there's a new model put out. Those aren't the "old" ranges. Those are NEW ranges of uncertainty given THAT DAY'S information. With all the NEW information incorporated. Including all the social distancing. It's already incorporated into the model and their predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Like two weeks ago predicting Alabama and Tennessee piling up hundreds of bodies a DAY because of their stupid lack of social distancing and shutdown rules, which has just absolutely not happened. Their predictions are almost ALWAYS on the high side, promoting fear, panic, etc., for no good reason.

Agreed - the model could've been off at the start. No reason why it should still be off today other than just being a bad model. If this was a controls class in engineering we would've thrown out this gauge as it's way too unresponsive.