Coronavirus COVID-19

[kalm]

The early models (the big curve part) were predicated on worse case scenarios if nothing was implemented. The smaller curves were the predictions if social D was used. The curves have flattened further and quicker with social D WHICH IS A GOOD THING AND PARTLY DUE TO BOTH SOCIAL D AND THE MODELS TGAT GUIDED IT. There are outliers that they’ll continue to study.



India just extended its mitigation measures for 1.3 billion people again. Because, you know, the experts and their models are all wrong and such.

A study out of NY of hospitalized pregnant women shows a 15% rate of infection with 13% being asymptomatic but hey! We know all we need to about this, it’s time to go back to normal.

Incorrect, Grasshopper. That's not the way those models work. The "range of uncertainty" is adjusted each time there's a new model put out. Those aren't the "old" ranges. Those are NEW ranges of uncertainty given THAT DAY'S information. With all the NEW information incorporated. Including all the social distancing. It's already incorporated into the model and their predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Like two weeks ago predicting Alabama and Tennessee piling up hundreds of bodies a DAY because of their stupid lack of social distancing and shutdown rules, which has just absolutely not happened. Their predictions are almost ALWAYS on the high side, promoting fear, panic, etc., for no good reason.

Other than...they’re working.

It’s like the golfing and fishing shutdowns in my state. “It’s perfect social distancing because I’m smart enough to follow the guidelines and not endanger other people or increase the chances of community spread.”

While Marvin playing in the group in front of you, carpooled with his 3 buddies two of which are toilet seat lickers and the third’s daughter broke curfew to bang her asymptomatic boyfriend last night before bringing it back to the house. On the way to the course, they picked up a half rack of Natty Light and cans of Grizzly Straight (they ain’t buying any of that mint homo shit). Arjun who runs the store catches droplets. Then they end up leaving more droplets on the pump and the nurse on her way to the nursing home who uses the pump next gets contaminated and spreads it to grandma.

[AZGrizFan]

Incorrect, Grasshopper. That's not the way those models work. The "range of uncertainty" is adjusted each time there's a new model put out. Those aren't the "old" ranges. Those are NEW ranges of uncertainty given THAT DAY'S information. With all the NEW information incorporated. Including all the social distancing. It's already incorporated into the model and their predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Like two weeks ago predicting Alabama and Tennessee piling up hundreds of bodies a DAY because of their stupid lack of social distancing and shutdown rules, which has just absolutely not happened. Their predictions are almost ALWAYS on the high side, promoting fear, panic, etc., for no good reason.

Other than...they’re working.

It’s like the golfing and fishing shutdowns in my state. “It’s perfect social distancing because I’m smart enough to follow the guidelines and not endanger other people or increase the chances of community spread.”

While Marvin playing in the group in front of you, carpooled with his 3 buddies two of which are toilet seat lickers and the third’s daughter broke curfew to bang her asymptomatic boyfriend last night before bringing it back to the house. On the way to the course, they picked up a half rack of Natty Light and cans of Grizzly Straight (they ain’t buying any of that mint homo shit). Arjun who runs the store catches droplets. Then they end up leaving more droplets on the pump and the nurse on her way to the nursing home who uses the pump next gets contaminated and spreads it to grandma.

Are you being purposely obtuse? Or are you really this dense?

The models INCORPORATE. SOCIAL. DISTANCING. And they're STILL wildly inaccurate and basically fear porn.

Why is that so difficult to understand? Is this your EWU "degree" coming back to haunt you?

[kalm]

Other than...they’re working.

It’s like the golfing and fishing shutdowns in my state. “It’s perfect social distancing because I’m smart enough to follow the guidelines and not endanger other people or increase the chances of community spread.”

While Marvin playing in the group in front of you, carpooled with his 3 buddies two of which are toilet seat lickers and the third’s daughter broke curfew to bang her asymptomatic boyfriend last night before bringing it back to the house. On the way to the course, they picked up a half rack of Natty Light and cans of Grizzly Straight (they ain’t buying any of that mint homo shit). Arjun who runs the store catches droplets. Then they end up leaving more droplets on the pump and the nurse on her way to the nursing home who uses the pump next gets contaminated and spreads it to grandma.

Are you being purposely obtuse? Or are you really this dense?

The models INCORPORATE. SOCIAL. DISTANCING. And they're STILL wildly inaccurate and basically fear porn.

Why is that so difficult to understand? Is this your EWU "degree" coming back to haunt you?

That’s why many of the models have adjusted down (Not weekly but daily) as SD both voluntarily and through state orders have taken affect. It’s working quite well. Sorry it’s not fast enough for you.

Otherwise, please show me one credible scientific org that has it all figured out including the exact number of potential asymptomatic super spreaders out there, reinfection rates, renewed hot spots and 2nd, 3rd, and 4th wave potential.

B.A. Recreation Management, Harvard of the Palouse.

[Gil Dobie]

Looking at the graphs, the US might be on just over the peak, if number continue to be consistent. If they can orchestrate a good testing and tracing program after the numbers get down to a certain point, they could open things up.

4/6 - 1259 deaths
4/7 - 1973
4/8 - 1943
4/9 - 1901
4/10 - 2035
4/11 - 1830
4/12 - 1528
4/13 - 1535

WorldoMeter Link

[Winterborn]

Incorrect, Grasshopper. That's not the way those models work. The "range of uncertainty" is adjusted each time there's a new model put out. Those aren't the "old" ranges. Those are NEW ranges of uncertainty given THAT DAY'S information. With all the NEW information incorporated. Including all the social distancing. It's already incorporated into the model and their predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Like two weeks ago predicting Alabama and Tennessee piling up hundreds of bodies a DAY because of their stupid lack of social distancing and shutdown rules, which has just absolutely not happened. Their predictions are almost ALWAYS on the high side, promoting fear, panic, etc., for no good reason.

Agreed - the model could've been off at the start. No reason why it should still be off today other than just being a bad model. If this was a controls class in engineering we would've thrown out this gauge as it's way too unresponsive.

Yup and our professor would of given us a F for trying to pass of a faulty simulation.

The largest simulation I personally ran was a CFD on a 4 cylinder diesel engine, trying to model the entire air pathway (intake to end of the exhaust) and to optimize the combustion cycle, we had six engineering stations running the simulation for 3 days solid only to find out that one of our initial assumptions was off by a 0.05%. Our teacher pointed that out in the preliminary results and we had to re-run it, as the model was junk. GI-GO as the Colonel mentioned earlier in the thread.

[GannonFan]

Looking at the graphs, the US might be on just over the peak, if number continue to be consistent. If they can orchestrate a good testing and tracing program after the numbers get down to a certain point, they could open things up.

Easier said than done. I think we could test people (apparently we're way under capacity in terms of testing capability - we apparently just don't have enough test tubes and the other stuff to store the test), I think the problem is with the tracing part of it. I don't see us letting Apple and Google just track everyone all the time via their cell phones (and have those records available to the government) in this country, and that even assumes that that's a good enough tracking tool.

I'm still waiting for Big Pharma to step up to the plate and hit a home run with a vaccine here. For all the money we pour into that industry, they've really come up small so far in the early innings here. It's not like corona viruses didn't exist before so this isn't ground breaking areas here. I'm leaning more and more to price controls on pharmaceuticals every day the pharma industry keeps telling us 12-18 months for a vaccine - maybe.

[Gil Dobie]

[kalm]

Looking at the graphs, the US might be on just over the peak, if number continue to be consistent. If they can orchestrate a good testing and tracing program after the numbers get down to a certain point, they could open things up.

4/6 - 1259 deaths
4/7 - 1973
4/8 - 1943
4/9 - 1901
4/10 - 2035
4/11 - 1830
4/12 - 1528
4/13 - 1535

WorldoMeter Link

Yep

[AZGrizFan]

Are you being purposely obtuse? Or are you really this dense?

The models INCORPORATE. SOCIAL. DISTANCING. And they're STILL wildly inaccurate and basically fear porn.

Why is that so difficult to understand? Is this your EWU "degree" coming back to haunt you?

That’s why many of the models have adjusted down (Not weekly but daily) as SD both voluntarily and through state orders have taken affect. It’s working quite well. Sorry it’s not fast enough for you.

Otherwise, please show me one credible scientific org that has it all figured out including the exact number of potential asymptomatic super spreaders out there, reinfection rates, renewed hot spots and 2nd, 3rd, and 4th wave potential.

B.A. Recreation Management, Harvard of the Palouse.

You're not listening. They adjusted down INCLUDING baking all announced social distancing efforts into their new "adjustments" and still were wildly inaccurate with uuuuuuuuge "uncertainty" bands. Almost without exception every single reality has come in at or below the bottom of the inaccuracy bands. Tennessee and Alabama? They should be stacking bodies like cordwood right now--but they're not. Utah, SD, ND? Those states should be swimming in dead bodies given the fact they haven't really even sheltered in place--but they're not.

They've promoted fear and panic, destruction of our country and our economy, for what? Guesses?

They should have shut down NY, MA, MI, FL, LA, CA & WA. The rest of the country should be opened back up immediately and getting the economy and people back to work.

I could have thrown a dart at a fucking dart board and gotten closer than they did.

[AZGrizFan]

Looking at the graphs, the US might be on just over the peak, if number continue to be consistent. If they can orchestrate a good testing and tracing program after the numbers get down to a certain point, they could open things up.

4/6 - 1259 deaths
4/7 - 1973
4/8 - 1943
4/9 - 1901
4/10 - 2035
4/11 - 1830
4/12 - 1528
4/13 - 1535

WorldoMeter Link

And who gets to decide what THAT point is, skippy?

[Skjellyfetti]

Mostly governors.

[UNI88]

Social distancing is apparently having an impact on kalmie - he's gotten more stir-crazy with each day of quarantine. He'll be more reasonable again once he's able to go back to his golf course. Assuming the Neanderthals from Idaho haven't built-up a stronger version of the covid virus as they run rampant around their own state.

When all is said and done, I am afraid that social distancing and closure are going to be seen as having been a mistake...

I think we have kept our medical infrastructure from being inundated, but the virus is still with us and restrictions arent going to work unless they are in place until a vaccine is available

in other words, choose your poison..

economic ruin, OR really push gramma and granpa off the cliff in wheelchairs

(like the DNC said Mitt was gonna do)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

[kalm]

Mostly governors.

Informed by the best science available. Also, Credit Union CEO’s.

[kalm]

When all is said and done, I am afraid that social distancing and closure are going to be seen as having been a mistake...

I think we have kept our medical infrastructure from being inundated, but the virus is still with us and restrictions arent going to work unless they are in place until a vaccine is available

in other words, choose your poison..

economic ruin, OR really push gramma and granpa off the cliff in wheelchairs

(like the DNC said Mitt was gonna do)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

[UNI88]

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

We're almost there because of shelter in place for all and other measures but that can't go on indefinitely and we're close to the point where we need to ramp it down to those most at risk.

There is a point where the cost of continuing will be greater than the cost of ramping it down. The epidemiologists are focusing on the impact of the virus. It's outside of their wheelhouse so they aren't giving enough weight to the economic and sociological impact (increased depression, addiction, suicide, etc.) of the prevention measures.

[Winterborn]

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

CDC and FDA are holding that up from what I have read.

[Winterborn]

When all is said and done, I am afraid that social distancing and closure are going to be seen as having been a mistake...

I think we have kept our medical infrastructure from being inundated, but the virus is still with us and restrictions arent going to work unless they are in place until a vaccine is available

in other words, choose your poison..

economic ruin, OR really push gramma and granpa off the cliff in wheelchairs

(like the DNC said Mitt was gonna do)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

[GannonFan]

Or grammie and grampa and others who are most at risk continue to shelter in place while the rest of us get back to work. IMO, it's a matter of when not if we go to this approach.

Grocery stores deliver and technology provides a way to connect with friends and family.

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

We also have to be mindlful that the further we let the economy crumble, we'll have less capability to do some of these things. We are already hearing and seeing hospital layoffs now, especially in many areas (i.e. not NYC) where the virus has not been particularly prominent. With most non-Covid medical activities on hold (i.e. no elective surgeries, no wellness doctor visits, etc) we are cutting the medical industry off at the knees and we are exposing ourselves to a tidal wave of non-Covid health emergencies coming down the road. We may be saving grandmom and grandpop from dying from Covid, only to have them die because they weren't able to see their doctors and stay on top of their hypertension or high cholesterol or their type 2 diabetes. In addition, now the non-service industries (not restuarants, hair dressers, etc) are talking about layoffs. Heck, my company makes membrane that's used in everything from fuel cells to ostomy bags to other medical equipment - and we're talking about significant layoffs. You're also starting to hear that municipalities and cities may have to start laying off people because tax receipts are going way down - it's the cascade effect of turning off portions of the economy - you can't run half of the economy while the other half is shuttered - eventually everything starts to slow down and stop. Just wait until we have to furlough the folks working on the testing, or the trackers, or the vaccine because we can't support them either. And at no point in your 3 step startup did you even mention isolating or containing groups that are at most risk - I think that has to be part of it.

It's almost a shame that people hate Trump as much as they do because even when he says something that has some merit (and eventually the economic damage from a lockdown will exceed the damage from the virus) people can't stomach doing the right thing because it may mean agreeing with him, in some part. That's where this divisiveness really hurts us, we won't do the right thing because we don't want to agree with someone we hate. We're our own worst enemies sometimes.

[GannonFan]

And you're starting to see articles like this pop up, even on ABCNews…

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/117-milli ... dlines_hed

Even with the measles vaccine...

More than 140,000 people around the world died of the measles in 2018, most of them children under the age of 5, according to WHO.

In comparison, more than 121,000 people have died so far during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

And this is just the measles, one of many illnesses that already exist and already kill a lot of people worldwide, and are just one of many vaccines that people can't get while we socially distance. It's not just fun and games getting to stay home, post a lot of cute videos to Instagram and Facebook, and binge-watch countless shows and movies on Netflix, and hope another Broadway cast can all sing together on a Zoom channel.

[kalm]

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

We also have to be mindlful that the further we let the economy crumble, we'll have less capability to do some of these things. We are already hearing and seeing hospital layoffs now, especially in many areas (i.e. not NYC) where the virus has not been particularly prominent. With most non-Covid medical activities on hold (i.e. no elective surgeries, no wellness doctor visits, etc) we are cutting the medical industry off at the knees and we are exposing ourselves to a tidal wave of non-Covid health emergencies coming down the road. We may be saving grandmom and grandpop from dying from Covid, only to have them die because they weren't able to see their doctors and stay on top of their hypertension or high cholesterol or their type 2 diabetes. In addition, now the non-service industries (not restuarants, hair dressers, etc) are talking about layoffs. Heck, my company makes membrane that's used in everything from fuel cells to ostomy bags to other medical equipment - and we're talking about significant layoffs. You're also starting to hear that municipalities and cities may have to start laying off people because tax receipts are going way down - it's the cascade effect of turning off portions of the economy - you can't run half of the economy while the other half is shuttered - eventually everything starts to slow down and stop. Just wait until we have to furlough the folks working on the testing, or the trackers, or the vaccine because we can't support them either. And at no point in your 3 step startup did you even mention isolating or containing groups that are at most risk - I think that has to be part of it.

It's almost a shame that people hate Trump as much as they do because even when he says something that has some merit (and eventually the economic damage from a lockdown will exceed the damage from the virus) people can't stomach doing the right thing because it may mean agreeing with him, in some part. That's where this divisiveness really hurts us, we won't do the right thing because we don't want to agree with someone we hate. We're our own worst enemies sometimes.

All of these above ^^^ posts make great points. That’s indeed the pickle we’re in.

[AZGrizFan]

Mostly governors.

Informed by the best science available. Also, Credit Union CEO’s.

We'd have never shut down if it were up to me. # of increased deaths from suicide, increased substance abuse, increased spousal & child abuse, depression-level job loss, business failures, stress, etc. (all of which will never be measured) will FAR outweigh any lives saved by destroying our economy. Just different lives.

[Gil Dobie]

Looking at the graphs, the US might be on just over the peak, if number continue to be consistent. If they can orchestrate a good testing and tracing program after the numbers get down to a certain point, they could open things up.

4/6 - 1259 deaths
4/7 - 1973
4/8 - 1943
4/9 - 1901
4/10 - 2035
4/11 - 1830
4/12 - 1528
4/13 - 1535

WorldoMeter Link

And who gets to decide what THAT point is, skippy?

[AZGrizFan]

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

We're almost there because of shelter in place for all and other measures but that can't go on indefinitely and we're close to the point where we need to ramp it down to those most at risk.

There is a point where the cost of continuing will be greater than the cost of ramping it down. The epidemiologists are focusing on the impact of the virus. It's outside of their wheelhouse so they aren't giving enough weight to the economic and sociological impact (increased depression, addiction, suicide, etc.) of the prevention measures.

That point was about 10 days ago.

[AZGrizFan]

We also have to be mindlful that the further we let the economy crumble, we'll have less capability to do some of these things. We are already hearing and seeing hospital layoffs now, especially in many areas (i.e. not NYC) where the virus has not been particularly prominent. With most non-Covid medical activities on hold (i.e. no elective surgeries, no wellness doctor visits, etc) we are cutting the medical industry off at the knees and we are exposing ourselves to a tidal wave of non-Covid health emergencies coming down the road. We may be saving grandmom and grandpop from dying from Covid, only to have them die because they weren't able to see their doctors and stay on top of their hypertension or high cholesterol or their type 2 diabetes. In addition, now the non-service industries (not restuarants, hair dressers, etc) are talking about layoffs. Heck, my company makes membrane that's used in everything from fuel cells to ostomy bags to other medical equipment - and we're talking about significant layoffs. You're also starting to hear that municipalities and cities may have to start laying off people because tax receipts are going way down - it's the cascade effect of turning off portions of the economy - you can't run half of the economy while the other half is shuttered - eventually everything starts to slow down and stop. Just wait until we have to furlough the folks working on the testing, or the trackers, or the vaccine because we can't support them either. And at no point in your 3 step startup did you even mention isolating or containing groups that are at most risk - I think that has to be part of it.

It's almost a shame that people hate Trump as much as they do because even when he says something that has some merit (and eventually the economic damage from a lockdown will exceed the damage from the virus) people can't stomach doing the right thing because it may mean agreeing with him, in some part. That's where this divisiveness really hurts us, we won't do the right thing because we don't want to agree with someone we hate. We're our own worst enemies sometimes.

All of these above ^^^ posts make great points. That’s indeed the pickle we’re in.

It's a self-imposed pickle. Because of blind belief in fear porn by people like you.

[UNI88]

1). Ability to contain within the hospital system - quickly getting there.

2). Ability for 100% testing with same day results.

3). Improved track and trace measures. I realize the big brother/genie out of the bottle implications and they’re legit, but it’s already happening.

We also have to be mindlful that the further we let the economy crumble, we'll have less capability to do some of these things. We are already hearing and seeing hospital layoffs now, especially in many areas (i.e. not NYC) where the virus has not been particularly prominent. With most non-Covid medical activities on hold (i.e. no elective surgeries, no wellness doctor visits, etc) we are cutting the medical industry off at the knees and we are exposing ourselves to a tidal wave of non-Covid health emergencies coming down the road. We may be saving grandmom and grandpop from dying from Covid, only to have them die because they weren't able to see their doctors and stay on top of their hypertension or high cholesterol or their type 2 diabetes. In addition, now the non-service industries (not restuarants, hair dressers, etc) are talking about layoffs. Heck, my company makes membrane that's used in everything from fuel cells to ostomy bags to other medical equipment - and we're talking about significant layoffs. You're also starting to hear that municipalities and cities may have to start laying off people because tax receipts are going way down - it's the cascade effect of turning off portions of the economy - you can't run half of the economy while the other half is shuttered - eventually everything starts to slow down and stop. Just wait until we have to furlough the folks working on the testing, or the trackers, or the vaccine because we can't support them either. And at no point in your 3 step startup did you even mention isolating or containing groups that are at most risk - I think that has to be part of it.

It's almost a shame that people hate Trump as much as they do because even when he says something that has some merit (and eventually the economic damage from a lockdown will exceed the damage from the virus) people can't stomach doing the right thing because it may mean agreeing with him, in some part. That's where this divisiveness really hurts us, we won't do the right thing because we don't want to agree with someone we hate. We're our own worst enemies sometimes.

Ganny just ripped the tits off of this thing. Factor in the "# of increased deaths from suicide, increased substance abuse, increased spousal & child abuse, depression-level job loss, business failures, stress, etc." that AZ and I have mentioned and it's a question of when and as AZ thinks have we already passed the point where we should open the economy back up?