The Ukraine Crisis

[kalm]

Anyone want to take bets on the rationalization we hear?

And the results are in!

"Genius tactical repositioning" is our winner!

Goddamn, how does Russia make it look so easy?

Hopefully our generals are over there taking notes. I wonder if we could invade Mexico and use Russian tactics to pull it off with only 100K+ KIA. We may only end up with like 10% of the country, but that sounds like a pretty good deal to me. Plenty of warm bodies in the South that need to be put to use anyways!

[SeattleGriz]

Kinda makes you wonder why Russia would announce such a move in advance.

I think you're overthinking this. Why has any military, in the history of warfare, announced retreats in advanced (including the US)?

It's as simple as: enemies (and people in general) are less likely to attack those retreating. You save your resources. For your enemy: they've already won so there's no point in sacrificing their own resources, and sometimes they look benevolent.

The general rule of thumb is that people don't like killing each other. Announcing retreats plays into that psychology.

Could be overthinking for sure!

[Skjellyfetti]

[SeattleGriz]

Anyone want to take bets on the rationalization we hear?

And the results are in!

"Genius tactical repositioning" is our winner!

Goddamn, how does Russia make it look so easy?

Hopefully our generals are over there taking notes. I wonder if we could invade Mexico and use Russian tactics to pull it off with only 100K+ KIA. We may only end up with like 10% of the country, but that sounds like a pretty good deal to me. Plenty of warm bodies in the South that need to be put to use anyways!

So says Putin Puppet and retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... on-battle/

“Russia realized it would be better to have an early withdrawal than to be overrun by Ukrainians and suffer massive losses,” said Jim Stavridis, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO. “Ukrainians will not stop until they fully retake the city — nor should they. It has enormous geographic, military and psychological value.”

[SeattleGriz]

Yes and my brother had a real fun time in Afghanistan and my surgeon buddy had a great time being repeatedly rocket'd in Iraq. Now imagine those experiences, only 80,000 (and counting) of your buddies and brothers-at-arms were blown apart next to you. Our Middle East fiascos are peanuts compared to what is happening here.

Define win

Preventing the regime change or assassination of Zelenskyy?
Stopping the invasion of Kyiv?
Taking back territory? Taking back ALL of the territory? Taking back Crimea?

Look at prognostications in February. Ukraine is pilling up the wins.

Good point. There will be no victory for anyone, but to answer your question I would have to go with whoever lost less lives.

To expand, if Russia is able to keep the Oblasts and turn Ukraine into a Rump state, that would be attainment of their goals.

Lastly, while we don't agree on the topic, it's good to have another opinion on the thread. It was a four way slap fight before and now it's a five way!

[Skjellyfetti]

[∞∞∞]

Add Dugin to the 2022 death pool.

[houndawg]

Hasn't the majority of what you've posted been from unverified Russian sources? Now you're questioning things? Why did Russia need to go to a mass conscription if they were just rolling over the Ukrainians with little to few losses?

If you look at what I'm posting, it's pretty high level stuff, nothing too specific. The guys I've been reading constantly say it is their opinion and they do not know what is the actual truth on the ground as they have no way to know. They do have knowledge of military capabilities (facts) and what is generally happening as they speak Russian and/or Ukrainian and have contacts within. None of them live in Russia.

Russia went to mass conscription because the Special Operation has been moved to War status and they had been outnumbered 3:1 up to this point. While everyone was talking about the breakthrough, Putin went back to his government and got approval to go to war status.

This is what allows the conscription AND more importantly, a more unified approach. With the Special Operation, you were only seeing bits and pieces, not a joint effort among the different capabilities.

You may not like Putin and disagree with this, but he's been following a method here. Start with a special operation to show restraint, offer to negotiate, let the people vote to ask for protection and then declare they need to go to war status to provide that protection and open up lethal aspects of their military.

This is why I'm concerned over the future. If I'm right, and what these guys have been saying, the future for Ukraine looks very bleak unless negotiations can happen.

So, you got a source on the deaths, or are you simply accepting what you have been told even though the indisputable fact the Russians have greater capabilities makes that statement highly unlikely?

But you aren't.... as is your custom....

How about that brilliant fake retreat from Kerson? Packs a wallop like a Durham indictment!


You're as out of touch about Ukraine as you were about the election.

[BDKJMU]

Missle strikes Poland, kills 2. Hmm..

[SeattleGriz]

Missle strikes Poland, kills 2. Hmm..

Photos are showing what look like S300 AA remnants. Meaning Ukraine tried to shoot down a missile and missed.

Biden has even admitted the trajectory didn't look like it was Russia.

[HI54UNI]

[GannonFan]

Questions well worth asking. Also, how much money are other nations giving? Given where the war is happening, NATO countries should be contributing a fair amount. Obviously we always bear the lionshare, but one would hope the balance is improving.

[SeattleGriz]

Questions well worth asking. Also, how much money are other nations giving? Given where the war is happening, NATO countries should be contributing a fair amount. Obviously we always bear the lionshare, but one would hope the balance is improving.

Seems CBS pointed this out months ago by asking if we could account where all the weaponry was going, but for some reason retracted their story.

[Skjellyfetti]

Hopefully they can get a bunch of Patriot missile systems in there so they don't have to rely on their shitty Soviet S-300s

[kalm]

And just like that ^^^ some people are now opposed to the US being a world wide arms dealer.

[GannonFan]

And just like that ^^^ some people are now opposed to the US being a world wide arms dealer.

I'm not against it per se. Devils always in the details.

[SeattleGriz]

Lots of back channel discussions happening right now. Seems the US is a little concerned the ground will be freezing soon.

[kalm]

And just like that ^^^ some people are now opposed to the US being a world wide arms dealer.

I'm not against it per se. Devils always in the details.

Yup.

[houndawg]

"Kherson was a feint."

"Abandoning Kherson was an gesture of goodwill."

How about it was a difficult place to defend and supply, so it's wiser to retreat to ground where they won't be isolated if the dam is blown?

How about its better to retreat than continue to get the shit kicked out of you?

[houndawg]

I think you're overthinking this. Why has any military, in the history of warfare, announced retreats in advanced (including the US)?

It's as simple as: enemies (and people in general) are less likely to attack those retreating. You save your resources. For your enemy: they've already won so there's no point in sacrificing their own resources, and sometimes they look benevolent.

The general rule of thumb is that people don't like killing each other. Announcing retreats plays into that psychology.

Could be overthinking for sure!

I don't think he is - he didn't say anything about faulty equipment, poor training, shitty morale, a well-trained well-equiped adversary defending their homes and families, and so on and so forth...

[BDKJMU]

I'm not against it per se. Devils always in the details.

Yup.

Neolibs.

[kalm]

Yup.

Neolibs.

Exactly!

[HI54UNI]

And just like that ^^^ some people are now opposed to the US being a world wide arms dealer.

I give a shit about us selling arms. My concern is the US taxpayer paying for arms that are going elsewhere with no accountability.

[SeattleGriz]

Hopefully they can get a bunch of Patriot missile systems in there so they don't have to rely on their shitty Soviet S-300s

Yes, so shitty it flew in the opposite direction it should have to intercept incoming Russian missiles. Took me a little to realize what happened.

By the way, don't think Patriot or Iron Dome would help much. Been trying to find the article stating that, but it was too long ago.

[Skjellyfetti]

Probably because of training. We started training them on NASAMS a few months ago and they finally started using them last week. Might as well start on Patriots.