Coronavirus COVID-19

[kalm]

Here's the smoking gun that corona has been in the US longer than the experts realize.

Not surprising. It may have been here last fall. Keep in, the Spanish Flu May have originated in Kansas and killed 10 times as many people in the fall/winter of 1918 as it did in the spring. We still have much to learn.

[AZGrizFan]

and on April 1st they projected Tennessee and Alabama would be stacking bodies like cordwood by now because they hadn’t implemented social distancing early or strict enough. “Hundreds of deaths a day by April 14th”....guess how many they each have? Less than 200 TOTAL.

So, you wanna start cherry picking data points, bro?

No, I am not cherry picking data points. I looked at South Carolina because it appeared that South Carolina was under discussion. And I used the first run of the model because it reasonably would be considered to be the one most subject to error at this point.

The April 1 run of the model did miss on Alabama and Tennessee in terms of cumulative cases at this point. It did not miss on the national number. I am not going to go through all 50 States to see how it did in terms of number of States within the uncertainty intervals and number of States outside of it. However, bear in mind that if the uncertainty intervals are like 95% confidence intervals the expectation is that the true value will be outside of the 95% confidence interval in 1 in each 20 instances over the long term.

What would you suggest as an alternative for trying to anticipate impacts?

Well, considering how shitty their models were (and the decisions that were made BASED on those models), you might as well have thrown darts at a fucking dart board.

[AZGrizFan]

Here's the smoking gun that corona has been in the US longer than the experts realize.

Not surprising. It may have been here last fall. Keep in, the Spanish Flu May have originated in Kansas and killed 10 times as many people in the fall/winter of 1918 as it did in the spring. We still have much to learn.

It’s 50-80x more prevalent, and 50-80x LESS deadly than thought. We need to get the fuck on with daily living.

[kalm]

Not surprising. It may have been here last fall. Keep in, the Spanish Flu May have originated in Kansas and killed 10 times as many people in the fall/winter of 1918 as it did in the spring. We still have much to learn.

It’s 50-80x more prevalent, and 50-80x LESS deadly than thought. We need to get the fuck on with daily living.

And it’s a different bug with its own traits which could be a positive or negative, but thank you Dr. of Epidemiology. AZ.

[93henfan]

California is awesome.

Local government pours sand in skate park to stop skaters. Dirt bikers show up.

I saw this. I lol'd. Also had some dirt bikers hitting up our local park as it is deserted, noticed it while I was tearing down the caution tape on the playground so the little one could use the swings and slides.

My favorite was just listening to the first guy interviewed starting around the 20 second mark. He has the SoCal accent that I think most people who have never lived there think is just a Sean Penn in Fast Times or Keanu Reeves in Bill and Ted acting deal. Nope, it's real. I surfed with enough of those bozos to think it was completely normal when I lived there.

[HI54UNI]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

[AZGrizFan]

It’s 50-80x more prevalent, and 50-80x LESS deadly than thought. We need to get the fuck on with daily living.

And it’s a different bug with its own traits which could be a positive or negative, but thank you Dr. of Epidemiology. AZ.

There are at least six different studies out there that are finding that there are 50-80x more people with it than first thought. One is a dot. Two is a line. Three is a trend. Six? A fucking LOCK. This thing is common...frighteningly common....and kills about .25%-.4% of the people who get it. And the vast majority of those deaths are in 75+ age group with preexisting conditions.

We need to start living life again.

[AZGrizFan]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

[kalm]

And it’s a different bug with its own traits which could be a positive or negative, but thank you Dr. of Epidemiology. AZ.

There are at least six different studies out there that are finding that there are 50-80x more people with it than first thought. One is a dot. Two is a line. Three is a trend. Six? A fucking LOCK. This thing is common...frighteningly common....and kills about .25%-.4% of the people who get it. And the vast majority of those deaths are in 75+ age group with preexisting conditions.

We need to start living life again.

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong.

I’d truly like to see the links supporting your numbers.

[Ibanez]

But we know the numbers aren't to be trusted - which is the crux of the argument as to why IHME is "garbage."

I just don't get you guys thinking that IHME model is garbage. If you use the model even when they released the first output on March 25 the national projection was for a point estimate of 44,781 cases as of yesterday, April 21 with an uncertainty interval of 25,791 through 82,412. The actual CDC death count as of yesterday was 44,575.

For South Carolina the first run on March 25 point estimate of deaths in that State as of April 21 was 172 and the uncertainty interval was 66 through 312.

Both projections were very good. If the true value is within the uncertainty interval, the projection was a success. And in both cases the point estimates were in the ball park.

JSO, read the posts I was responding to before bringing me into this. I haven't said the numbers were "garbage."

[CAA Flagship]

The largest analysis of hospitalized U.S. COVID-19 patients to date finds that most did not survive after being placed on a mechanical ventilator.

The study included the health records of 5,700 COVID-19 patients hospitalized between March 1 and April 4 at facilities overseen by Northwell Health, New York State's largest health system.

Among the 2,634 patients for whom outcomes were known, the overall death rate was 21%, but it rose to 88% for those who received mechanical ventilation, the Northwell Health COVID-19 Research Consortium reported.

The new findings "provide a crucial early insight into the front-line response to the COVID-19 outbreak in New York," Dr. Kevin Tracey, president and CEO of the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, said in a Northwell Health news release.

The findings also add fuel to the notion that ventilators may sometimes do more harm than good for patients battling for life with severe COVID-19.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news ... tudy-shows

[Ibanez]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Wow. I never saw that coming. I'd pay them then once this is over, fire them.

[Ibanez]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

That's less than a 50% pay cut for me. I'd imagine it's a larger one for you.

[Winterborn]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

[GannonFan]

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

They couldn't walk away, though, they had to be let go in order to get unemployment, correct? I thought most states unemployment didn't come into play if you voluntarily leave a job.

[Winterborn]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

They couldn't walk away, though, they had to be let go in order to get unemployment, correct? I thought most states unemployment didn't come into play if you voluntarily leave a job.

That was my assumption as well but according to the owner they just up and quit as they had no reason to let any one go. They were even looking at adding a few more to keep up with demand.

Edit - Maybe that is just for full-time workers? I am assuming these were part-timers that didn't work a full 40 hours per week as they mostly hire college students, etc..

[kalm]

Something like this is what’s needed.

“Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown


The Conversation
19 Apr 2020
Miquel Oliu-Barton
Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski
Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford


Mathematical models suggest a possible exit strategy from lockdown.

Identifying 'green zones' and progressively joining these zones could allow us to leave lockdown.

The process won't be perfect, but could allow 'rapid reunification' and limit economic and societal damage.”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ec3ea698f2

[CAA Flagship]

Something like this is what’s needed.

“Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown


The Conversation
19 Apr 2020
Miquel Oliu-Barton
Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski
Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford


Mathematical models suggest a possible exit strategy from lockdown.

Identifying 'green zones' and progressively joining these zones could allow us to leave lockdown.

The process won't be perfect, but could allow 'rapid reunification' and limit economic and societal damage.”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ec3ea698f2

NO

[UNI88]

They couldn't walk away, though, they had to be let go in order to get unemployment, correct? I thought most states unemployment didn't come into play if you voluntarily leave a job.

That was my assumption as well but according to the owner they just up and quit as they had no reason to let any one go. They were even looking at adding a few more to keep up with demand.

Edit - Maybe that is just for full-time workers? I am assuming these were part-timers that didn't work a full 40 hours per week as they mostly hire college students, etc..

The state agency that administers unemployment typically follows up with employers to make sure the separation was involuntary and without cause or due to misconduct. My guess is that state agencies are overwhelmed with the number of claims and can't follow up on all of them. Hopefully, the agency does follow up with your friend and catches these people. Then they should owe everything they collected back to the state.

As an employer, the number of "former" employees who claim unemployment benefits can drive up your (state) unemployment rates. Causing an unemployment claim to be denied might also result in a lawsuit. Lots of things for your friend to consider.

[kalm]

Something like this is what’s needed.

“Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown


The Conversation
19 Apr 2020
Miquel Oliu-Barton
Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski
Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford


Mathematical models suggest a possible exit strategy from lockdown.

Identifying 'green zones' and progressively joining these zones could allow us to leave lockdown.

The process won't be perfect, but could allow 'rapid reunification' and limit economic and societal damage.”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ec3ea698f2

NO

WHY

[GannonFan]

Something like this is what’s needed.

“Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown


The Conversation
19 Apr 2020
Miquel Oliu-Barton
Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski
Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford


Mathematical models suggest a possible exit strategy from lockdown.

Identifying 'green zones' and progressively joining these zones could allow us to leave lockdown.

The process won't be perfect, but could allow 'rapid reunification' and limit economic and societal damage.”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ec3ea698f2

The reason why this work is in the article, especially this quote:

To reap the full advantages that the practise of green zoning offers, important policy choices must be made. The definition of zones needs careful consideration of social and economic ties. The rules applying for each zone would need to be clearly defined. Importantly, all measures, including green zoning, would need the support of the public – which may not be easy to secure, given the significant increase in policing measures involved.

Heck, we can't agree on where to draw electoral districts, which basically amount to a 2 or 4 year cycle of political gambling. How are we going to possibly agree on arbitrary lines that will group us or exclude us versus everyone else, and then even possibly having anything close to the law enforcement numbers to practically enforce these green zones? It sounds great mathematically, and I'm sure it's a good idea. It just has no practical application in the real world.

[HI54UNI]

They couldn't walk away, though, they had to be let go in order to get unemployment, correct? I thought most states unemployment didn't come into play if you voluntarily leave a job.

That was my assumption as well but according to the owner they just up and quit as they had no reason to let any one go. They were even looking at adding a few more to keep up with demand.

Edit - Maybe that is just for full-time workers? I am assuming these were part-timers that didn't work a full 40 hours per week as they mostly hire college students, etc..

Every state is different but in Iowa if the employer called the state those people would get their unemployment cut off. The only Covid exceptions would be if the person could claim they had to quit to take care of their kids due to lack of school or daycare.

[kalm]

Something like this is what’s needed.

“Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown


The Conversation
19 Apr 2020
Miquel Oliu-Barton
Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski
Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford


Mathematical models suggest a possible exit strategy from lockdown.

Identifying 'green zones' and progressively joining these zones could allow us to leave lockdown.

The process won't be perfect, but could allow 'rapid reunification' and limit economic and societal damage.”

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/ ... ec3ea698f2

The reason why this work is in the article, especially this quote:

To reap the full advantages that the practise of green zoning offers, important policy choices must be made. The definition of zones needs careful consideration of social and economic ties. The rules applying for each zone would need to be clearly defined. Importantly, all measures, including green zoning, would need the support of the public – which may not be easy to secure, given the significant increase in policing measures involved.

Heck, we can't agree on where to draw electoral districts, which basically amount to a 2 or 4 year cycle of political gambling. How are we going to possibly agree on arbitrary lines that will group us or exclude us versus everyone else, and then even possibly having anything close to the law enforcement numbers to practically enforce these green zones? It sounds great mathematically, and I'm sure it's a good idea. It just has no practical application in the real world.

I think its just a start. The obvious modification is to break it up by political boundaries. They may be arbitrary but we're already doing it to a certain extent with states and countries. It at least defines compliance and testing jurisdictions. So county level or regional health district level first. It will also assist in the allocation of resources from a state to put out hot spots.

[89Hen]

Rumors we may get golf courses back open today or tomorrow!!!

[kalm]

Rumors we may get golf courses back open today or tomorrow!!!

Bastards!