Coronavirus COVID-19

[CAA Flagship]

The reason why this work is in the article, especially this quote:



Heck, we can't agree on where to draw electoral districts, which basically amount to a 2 or 4 year cycle of political gambling. How are we going to possibly agree on arbitrary lines that will group us or exclude us versus everyone else, and then even possibly having anything close to the law enforcement numbers to practically enforce these green zones? It sounds great mathematically, and I'm sure it's a good idea. It just has no practical application in the real world.

I think its just a start. The obvious modification is to break it up by political boundaries. They may be arbitrary but we're already doing it to a certain extent with states and countries. It at least defines compliance and testing jurisdictions. So county level or regional health district level first. It will also assist in the allocation of resources from a state to put out hot spots.

FFS. This just needs to go county by county, city by city, township by township, etc. as directed by the Governors. And it should be based on viral impact, economic impact, and healthcare capacity. Why do we need to reinvent fire? Who the heck would pay attention to "the six blocks between Maple St. and Belmont Road" or "the area between I-64 and US 693"?

[kalm]

I think its just a start. The obvious modification is to break it up by political boundaries. They may be arbitrary but we're already doing it to a certain extent with states and countries. It at least defines compliance and testing jurisdictions. So county level or regional health district level first. It will also assist in the allocation of resources from a state to put out hot spots.

FFS. This just needs to go county by county, city by city, township by township, etc. as directed by the Governors. And it should be based on viral impact, economic impact, and healthcare capacity. Why do we need to reinvent fire? Who the heck would pay attention to "the six blocks between Maple St. and Belmont Road" or "the area between I-64 and US 693"?

That’s what I was trying to say. It might be necessary to focus down further but only in high density situations and breakouts. Smart locations who have more successfully flattened the curve are already doing it to an extent.

[89Hen]

Rumors we may get golf courses back open today or tomorrow!!!

Bastards!

Of course there's rain in the forecast for 5 of the next 6 days. We've had a beautiful stretch this week other than being windy and colder than normal. Damn global warming.

[grizzaholic]

Rumors we may get golf courses back open today or tomorrow!!!

Bastards!

Wait, golf courses closed??? With all the distance and whatnot? Weird. Montana only closes golf courses when the snow is deeper than 3 inches.

[CAA Flagship]

FFS. This just needs to go county by county, city by city, township by township, etc. as directed by the Governors. And it should be based on viral impact, economic impact, and healthcare capacity. Why do we need to reinvent fire? Who the heck would pay attention to "the six blocks between Maple St. and Belmont Road" or "the area between I-64 and US 693"?

That’s what I was trying to say. It might be necessary to focus down further but only in high density situations and breakouts. Smart locations who have more successfully flattened the curve are already doing it to an extent.

I realize you were saying that with the "political boundary" comment. I'm really answering your "WHY' post.
But this idea isn't some genius idea. It's the reason there is no national shelter in place. Undoing a national shutdown is problematic. Every state is different. But the Governors need to further dissect their states to open up the low risk areas first.

[CAA Flagship]

BTW, my son ordered around $350 worth of Clemson gear from Fanatics and it was delivered 3 days later. How is it that they are "open"?

[89Hen]

Bastards!

Wait, golf courses closed??? With all the distance and whatnot? Weird. Montana only closes golf courses when the snow is deeper than 3 inches.

Only a handful of states closed golf courses, unfortunately we're one of them. My buddies have been going to Virginia to play.

[kalm]

That’s what I was trying to say. It might be necessary to focus down further but only in high density situations and breakouts. Smart locations who have more successfully flattened the curve are already doing it to an extent.

I realize you were saying that with the "political boundary" comment. I'm really answering your "WHY' post.
But this idea isn't some genius idea. It's the reason there is no national shelter in place. Undoing a national shutdown is problematic. Every state is different. But the Governors need to further dissect their states to open up the low risk areas first.

Agreed. Which also includes travel restrictions from restricted areas.

[Winterborn]

That was my assumption as well but according to the owner they just up and quit as they had no reason to let any one go. They were even looking at adding a few more to keep up with demand.

Edit - Maybe that is just for full-time workers? I am assuming these were part-timers that didn't work a full 40 hours per week as they mostly hire college students, etc..

The state agency that administers unemployment typically follows up with employers to make sure the separation was involuntary and without cause or due to misconduct. My guess is that state agencies are overwhelmed with the number of claims and can't follow up on all of them. Hopefully, the agency does follow up with your friend and catches these people. Then they should owe everything they collected back to the state.

As an employer, the number of "former" employees who claim unemployment benefits can drive up your (state) unemployment rates. Causing an unemployment claim to be denied might also result in a lawsuit. Lots of things for your friend to consider.

I will pass that along. This is their first business and they are learning as they go.

[Baldy]

Media are making a mistake in reporting on this:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/h ... index.html

Study finds no benefit, higher death rate in patients taking hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19

It's an observational study. One obvious possible reason why the subjects taking the drug died at a higher rate is that people who were in more serious condition may have been more likely to have received the drug.

Let's all just wait for completion of clinical trials. Don't get ahead of yourselves, media, with a "SEE IT DOESN"T WORK" narrative.

The media is straight up TRASH, period.

[SDHornet]

And it’s a different bug with its own traits which could be a positive or negative, but thank you Dr. of Epidemiology. AZ.

There are at least six different studies out there that are finding that there are 50-80x more people with it than first thought. One is a dot. Two is a line. Three is a trend. Six? A fucking LOCK. This thing is common...frighteningly common....and kills about .25%-.4% of the people who get it. And the vast majority of those deaths are in 75+ age group with preexisting conditions.

We need to start living life again.

We can get on with out lives with common sense protocols (masks, etc).

[SDHornet]

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

Not surprised. Pretty sure I called this when that extra $600 per week was tacked on to unemployment benefits. Too lazy to quote myself though.

[Winterborn]

That was my assumption as well but according to the owner they just up and quit as they had no reason to let any one go. They were even looking at adding a few more to keep up with demand.

Edit - Maybe that is just for full-time workers? I am assuming these were part-timers that didn't work a full 40 hours per week as they mostly hire college students, etc..

Every state is different but in Iowa if the employer called the state those people would get their unemployment cut off. The only Covid exceptions would be if the person could claim they had to quit to take care of their kids due to lack of school or daycare.

I think MN is the same (where they have their business) but I am not that familiar with the whole process. Never had a real big need to look into unemployment before this.

[AZGrizFan]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

Not surprised. Pretty sure I called this when that extra $600 per week was tacked on to unemployment benefits. Too lazy to quote myself though.

The senate called it too....McConnell wanted the $600 stripped from the bill, but the house threatened to delay the bill further if they did that. Fucking idiots.

[kalm]

Not surprised. Pretty sure I called this when that extra $600 per week was tacked on to unemployment benefits. Too lazy to quote myself though.

The senate called it too....McConnell wanted the $600 stripped from the bill, but the house threatened to delay the bill further if they did that. Fucking idiots.

Perhaps...and I may be facing this too, but so far, so good. People want get back to work and they also need to recognize that if they choose to 1) double dip, it will come back to the state and they’ll be on the hook for it, and 2) if they choose to not work, they may not have a job to come back to as they’ve been replaced.

The main point is getting money back in to avoid systemic collapse.

[Winterborn]

Bastards!

Wait, golf courses closed??? With all the distance and whatnot? Weird. Montana only closes golf courses when the snow is deeper than 3 inches.

ND is about the same. Easier to play in the snow than with 40 mph winds.

[Ibanez]

BTW, my son ordered around $350 worth of Clemson gear from Fanatics and it was delivered 3 days later. How is it that they are "open"?

That's a lot of money spend on Cow Tech gear.

Spoiler: show

[GannonFan]

Continuing the trend seen in the tests conducted in CA, NY is now releasing results of their antibody tests - based on results it looks like 21% of the NYC population tested positive for having the covid 19 antibodies. Statewide, extrapolated that would be 2.7 million infected people. For reference, the current infected count for the entire world is 2.6M, so this would increase the confirmed count by just over 100%. And that's just with NY updating their numbers. Obviously this lowers the death rate by at least an order of magnitude, possibly more. NY for instance now is looking at a 0.5% death rate.

[BDKJMU]

They’re showing #s that have already happened. If the #s are going downward, then the peak is obvious. Not a prediction, but showing the score.

But we know the numbers aren't to be trusted - which is the crux of the argument as to why IHME is "garbage." The data is skewed. So we really don't know when the peak is/will be.

CA just did autopsies and found 2 people that died in February from the 'Rona. New deaths/info is coming in daily. I would also go to say that the locals on the ground, seeing the numbers in real time, MIGHT have more of a clue than modelers who haven't stepped foot in Meck County and probably don't have Real Time data.

So why would you think a model with a projection 7 weeks out for Charlotte, local modelers or not, will be any different?

In the last month, every model out there making future predictions 1 to 2 months out has been off by multiples. Gov Blackface in VA (where I'm from & have family) in late March using local UVA modelers was saying a peak in June. This month it has gone to late May, then between late April and late May, then late April. They're all over the place. Looking at their #s (wiki via vdh.virginia.gov) the #s (increases in cases and deaths) have almost level off.

[BDKJMU]

Sounds like somebody is spewing some bullshit. I can tell you from having two kids in school myself, our current system is not set up for distance learning to be effective.

The internet providers here offer $5 or $10 per month high speed internet access if you have kids in school, plus the school systems in my area were handing out Chromebooks to kids who didn't have a computer they could use at home. Sounds like you have a shitty school system there.

My brother is a high school school teacher in CT. He told me all their kids were issued chrome books. Granted, wealthy district.

[AZGrizFan]

Continuing the trend seen in the tests conducted in CA, NY is now releasing results of their antibody tests - based on results it looks like 21% of the NYC population tested positive for having the covid 19 antibodies. Statewide, extrapolated that would be 2.7 million infected people. For reference, the current infected count for the entire world is 2.6M, so this would increase the confirmed count by just over 100%. And that's just with NY updating their numbers. Obviously this lowers the death rate by at least an order of magnitude, possibly more. NY for instance now is looking at a 0.5% death rate.

This is the most overblown reaction to a virus EVER. HIGH probability of catching it. LOW probability of death.

Let's move the fuck on, America.

/end thread

[BDKJMU]

But we know the numbers aren't to be trusted - which is the crux of the argument as to why IHME is "garbage."

I just don't get you guys thinking that IHME model is garbage. If you use the model even when they released the first output on March 25 the national projection was for a point estimate of 44,781 cases as of yesterday, April 21 with an uncertainty interval of 25,791 through 82,412. The actual CDC death count as of yesterday was 44,575.

For South Carolina the first run on March 25 point estimate of deaths in that State as of April 21 was 172 and the uncertainty interval was 66 through 312.

Both projections were very good. If the true value is within the uncertainty interval, the projection was a success. And in both cases the point estimates were in the ball park.

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 372.

[UNI88]

I just don't get you guys thinking that IHME model is garbage. If you use the model even when they released the first output on March 25 the national projection was for a point estimate of 44,781 cases as of yesterday, April 21 with an uncertainty interval of 25,791 through 82,412. The actual CDC death count as of yesterday was 44,575.

For South Carolina the first run on March 25 point estimate of deaths in that State as of April 21 was 172 and the uncertainty interval was 66 through 312.

Both projections were very good. If the true value is within the uncertainty interval, the projection was a success. And in both cases the point estimates were in the ball park.

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 349

The University of Pennsylvania Health System’s COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) model has even been more off than IHME.

So you're back to criticizing the IMHE numbers? Stop teeter-tottering and pick a side. Are they good or are they bad? If they're bad, don't use them when they support your positions.

[BDKJMU]

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 349

The University of Pennsylvania Health System’s COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) model has even been more off than IHME.

So you're back to criticizing the IMHE numbers? Stop teeter-tottering and pick a side. Are they good or are they bad? If they're bad, don't use them when they support your positions.

Try to keep up. Its not that hard.
Their CURRENT and PAST #s are GOOD. There's nothing predictive about how many people a month ago, a week ago, or today, are in the hospital, are on ventilators, or have died. The in game score and stats, are the in game score and stats.

Their FUTURE PREDICTIVE #s have been garbage.

[BDKJMU]

I just don't get you guys thinking that IHME model is garbage. If you use the model even when they released the first output on March 25 the national projection was for a point estimate of 44,781 cases as of yesterday, April 21 with an uncertainty interval of 25,791 through 82,412. The actual CDC death count as of yesterday was 44,575.

For South Carolina the first run on March 25 point estimate of deaths in that State as of April 21 was 172 and the uncertainty interval was 66 through 312.

Both projections were very good. If the true value is within the uncertainty interval, the projection was a success. And in both cases the point estimates were in the ball park.

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 372.

Another model with way off predictions for VA, article from 4/1, UPENNS CHIME (doesn't do death predictions). It gave a range of ventilators needed in VA (with social distancing) between 900 to 6300 at its peak. Today in VA 235 on ventilators.

Dr. Norman Oliver, Virginia’s Health Commissioner: “I would definitely say the IHME model is the rosy picture".

The Pilot used two scenarios in CHIME, one assuming social distancing effectiveness of 25 percent, the other at 50 percent.

If residents in the state cut down on person-to-person contact by 25% below normal, the model predicts that more than 6,300 people would need ventilators and 11,500 could need ICU beds when the pandemic reaches its peak in the state. Those numbers are significantly above the state’s current capacity.

But if residents cut down on contact by 50%, less than 900 people would need ventilator support during peak times

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health ... story.html