Coronavirus COVID-19

[Skjellyfetti]

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 372.

Another model with way off predictions for VA, article from 4/1, UPENNS CHIME (doesn't do death predictions). It gave a range of ventilators needed in VA (with social distancing) between 900 to 6300 at its peak. Today in VA 235 on ventilators.

Dr. Norman Oliver, Virginia’s Health Commissioner: “I would definitely say the IHME model is the rosy picture".

The Pilot used two scenarios in CHIME, one assuming social distancing effectiveness of 25 percent, the other at 50 percent.

If residents in the state cut down on person-to-person contact by 25% below normal, the model predicts that more than 6,300 people would need ventilators and 11,500 could need ICU beds when the pandemic reaches its peak in the state. Those numbers are significantly above the state’s current capacity.

But if residents cut down on contact by 50%, less than 900 people would need ventilator support during peak times

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health ... story.html

What % have people cut down contact in VA? For me, personally, it seems that I've cut down way more than 50%.

That model seems to be heavily weighted toward % contact. So, hard to say how wrong or accurate it is without having a number for how much contact has been reduced through social distancing.

[kalm]

Another model with way off predictions for VA, article from 4/1, UPENNS CHIME (doesn't do death predictions). It gave a range of ventilators needed in VA (with social distancing) between 900 to 6300 at its peak. Today in VA 235 on ventilators.

Dr. Norman Oliver, Virginia’s Health Commissioner: “I would definitely say the IHME model is the rosy picture".

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health ... story.html

What % have people cut down contact in VA? For me, personally, it seems that I've cut down way more than 50%.

That model seems to be heavily weighted toward % contact. So, hard to say how wrong or accurate it is without having a number for how much contact has been reduced through social distancing.

It is. It at least started out as worse case scenario for taking no action. Im also not sure if it accounts for population density.

[Ibanez]

So you're back to criticizing the IMHE numbers? Stop teeter-tottering and pick a side. Are they good or are they bad? If they're bad, don't use them when they support your positions.

Try to keep up. Its not that hard.
Their CURRENT and PAST #s are GOOD. There's nothing predictive about how many people a month ago, a week ago, or today, are in the hospital, are on ventilators, or have died. The in game score and stats, are the in game score and stats.

Their FUTURE PREDICTIVE #s have been garbage.

You were against it before you were for it.

You seem shocked that predictions of a novel virus are off. It's not like they are modeling with historical data to guide them.

[BDKJMU]

She got a forgivable loan. Her employees hate her for it.

Jamie Black-Lewis felt like she won the lottery after getting two forgivable loans through the Paycheck Protection Program.

Black-Lewis saw the $177,000 and $43,800 loans, one for each of the spas she owns in Washington state, as a lifeline she could use for payroll and other business expenses.

She’d halted pay for the 35 employees — including herself — at Oasis Medspa & Salon, in Woodinville, and Amai Day Spa, in Bothell, in mid-March, when nonessential businesses in Washington closed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Black-Lewis convened a virtual employee meeting to explain her good fortune, she expected jubilation and relief that paychecks would resume in full even though the staff — primarily hourly employees — couldn’t work.

She got a different reaction.

“It was a firestorm of hatred about the situation,” Black-Lewis said.

The animosity is an unintended consequence of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package enacted last month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Wow. I never saw that coming. I'd pay them then once this is over, fire them.

How'd you not see this coming? We were talking about this last month. Graham an Scott, among others, were all over it. It was obvious this type of thing was going to happen. Probably happening thousands fold all over the country.
viewtopic.php?p=1300798#p1300798
viewtopic.php?p=1301003#p1301003

[BDKJMU]

Yep. $26/hour to sit on your ass and drink beer.

Where do I sign up?

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

In order to get on state unemployment (+the $600 week Fed supplemental for up to 4 months) they're 'suppose' to have been involuntarily laid off. How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?

Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this...

[Ibanez]

I just don't get you guys thinking that IHME model is garbage. If you use the model even when they released the first output on March 25 the national projection was for a point estimate of 44,781 cases as of yesterday, April 21 with an uncertainty interval of 25,791 through 82,412. The actual CDC death count as of yesterday was 44,575.

For South Carolina the first run on March 25 point estimate of deaths in that State as of April 21 was 172 and the uncertainty interval was 66 through 312.

Both projections were very good. If the true value is within the uncertainty interval, the projection was a success. And in both cases the point estimates were in the ball park.

IHME April 1: Virginia coronavirus deaths will top 3,000, with mid-May peak
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB122gJ3
Deaths in VA so far: 372.

That April 1 data was provided 1-2 weeks into Virginia closing schools, non-essentials and finally with the March 30th stay at home order. You're comparing data sets that aren't equal. Pre and Post Shut down. Va is currently in its peak.

[BDKJMU]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this...

[Ibanez]

Wow. I never saw that coming. I'd pay them then once this is over, fire them.

How'd you not see this coming? We were talking about this last month. Graham an Scott, among others, were all over it. It was obvious this type of thing was going to happen. Probably happening thousands fold all over the country.
viewtopic.php?p=1300798#p1300798
viewtopic.php?p=1301003#p1301003

I haven't been paying attention to PPP. I've been a bit busy with work and homeschooling.

Nor to those fucking morons, Graham and Scott.

[BDKJMU]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

Not surprised. Pretty sure I called this when that extra $600 per week was tacked on to unemployment benefits. Too lazy to quote myself though.

Yep. You did right after I did. (See above post)..

[UNI88]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

In order to get on state unemployment (+the $600 week Fed supplemental for up to 4 months) they're 'suppose' to have been involuntarily laid off. How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?

Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this...

These two things are related so how was "Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this" when "Graham an Scott, among others, were all over it."?

And your question on "How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?" has already been answered. How much has unemployment increased in the past few weeks? Do you think the state unemployment agency has hired more people to handle the increase in demand? Probably not, they're swamped and can't check every case so people are slipping through the cracks. As Winter stated, it's a "complete shit show."

[BDKJMU]

In order to get on state unemployment (+the $600 week Fed supplemental for up to 4 months) they're 'suppose' to have been involuntarily laid off. How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?

Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this...

These two things are related so how was "Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this" when "Graham an Scott, among others, were all over it."?

And your question on "How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?" has already been answered. How much has unemployment increased in the past few weeks? Do you think the state unemployment agency has hired more people to handle the increase in demand? Probably not, they're swamped and can't check every case so people are slipping through the cracks. As Winter stated, it's a "complete shit show."

Graham, Scott and a few other conks protested the obvious unemployment issue, yet still voted for it. Massie voted against it (well, we don't have proof because the clowns in the House passed one of the biggest spending bills in US history by voice vote).

My 'D' key on my old laptop keeps sticking. Miss some 'd's if I don't pay attention..

I posted the unemployment question (deleted it) before I saw you and GF already addressed that.

[BDKJMU]

Continuing the trend seen in the tests conducted in CA, NY is now releasing results of their antibody tests - based on results it looks like 21% of the NYC population tested positive for having the covid 19 antibodies. Statewide, extrapolated that would be 2.7 million infected people. For reference, the current infected count for the entire world is 2.6M, so this would increase the confirmed count by just over 100%. And that's just with NY updating their numbers. Obviously this lowers the death rate by at least an order of magnitude, possibly more. NY for instance now is looking at a 0.5% death rate.

This is the most overblown reaction to a virus EVER. HIGH probability of catching it. LOW probability of death.

Let's move the fuck on, America.

/end thread

Yep- That about sums it up.

[BDKJMU]

Another model with way off predictions for VA, article from 4/1, UPENNS CHIME (doesn't do death predictions). It gave a range of ventilators needed in VA (with social distancing) between 900 to 6300 at its peak. Today in VA 235 on ventilators.

Dr. Norman Oliver, Virginia’s Health Commissioner: “I would definitely say the IHME model is the rosy picture".

https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health ... story.html

What % have people cut down contact in VA? For me, personally, it seems that I've cut down way more than 50%.

That model seems to be heavily weighted toward % contact. So, hard to say how wrong or accurate it is without having a number for how much contact has been reduced through social distancing.

Here's another shitty future predictive model, FRED from U Pitt. From 3/26, WITH the social distancing, shutdown of 'non essential' & schools, stay at home

Dr. Mark Roberts, director of the Public Health Dynamics Lab at Pitt’s Graduate School of Public Health and chairman of its Department of Health Policy and Management. “Social distancing is seriously important not only for yourself but the rest of community. That’s the only thing you can do.”

For now, he said 100,000 statewide hospitalizations remains an accurate possible prediction, based on multiple factors used in FRED analysis — the currently known behavior of the virus, school and business closures, infection rates to date, the extent of social distancing and population characteristics, among others.

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/healt ... 2003230067

Max daily hospital bed use so far for the Chinese Virus in PA: 4,319.

And yet we have politicians making decisions based on these models...

[Gil Dobie]

[Skjellyfetti]

"Rich people are in fact less immune than the poor."

Wat?


Is it supposed to read "Rich people are in fact no less immune than the poor"? Or, what am I missing?

[JohnStOnge]

No, I am not cherry picking data points. I looked at South Carolina because it appeared that South Carolina was under discussion. And I used the first run of the model because it reasonably would be considered to be the one most subject to error at this point.

The April 1 run of the model did miss on Alabama and Tennessee in terms of cumulative cases at this point. It did not miss on the national number. I am not going to go through all 50 States to see how it did in terms of number of States within the uncertainty intervals and number of States outside of it. However, bear in mind that if the uncertainty intervals are like 95% confidence intervals the expectation is that the true value will be outside of the 95% confidence interval in 1 in each 20 instances over the long term.

What would you suggest as an alternative for trying to anticipate impacts?

Well, considering how shitty their models were (and the decisions that were made BASED on those models), you might as well have thrown darts at a fucking dart board.

First, let me say that you are correct in saying that when it comes by State by State projections the April 1 model run did not do well. I went ahead and looked at it. I compared the State by State model projections for yesterday, April 22, to the Worldometer death counts. In 32 of 51 instances (51 total for 50 states plus DC), the deaths reported by Worldometers are outside of the uncertainty interval for the jurisdiction.

That is tempered somewhat by the fact that the current counts are not final estimates. A number of the cases in which the Worldometer case count is outside of the uncertainty intervals on the low side will be such that the final estimate will be within the interval. However, there were also quite a few misses o the high side and the final estimates will just make the case numbers even higher.

At the same time, it's not like throwing darts at a dart board. If you go through them you can see that the general nature of the situation is basically correct. Like for Nebraska the actual case count as of yesterday was 42 and the April 1 model run interval is 102 through 245. And for New York the actual case count as of yesterday was 20,354 and the April 1 model run interval is 9,594 through 19,478. The model was wrong in both instances in terms of the count being outside of the uncertainty interval. But the basic nature of the situation is consistent with the model in terms of comparing what's been going on in those two States.

There are some instances in which that is not the case. Alabama and Tennessee are two such instances. Tennessee more than Alabama.

Meanwhile on the national level the model did very well. The Worldometers death count for the United States as of yesterday 47,659. The April 1 United States death total projection for as of yesterday is point estimate 50,443 and uncertainty interval 30,142 through 71,915.

I assure you, throwing darts at a dartboard or just guessing would not work as well. And I think you really know that.

[AZGrizFan]

32 out of 19.

That IS something.

[houndawg]

A friend of mine's parents run a small pizza place that makes woodfire pizza. They usually have about 12-14 employees and since they were set to do take out they have been even busier than normal. Except that all of their employees but 2 walked away as they could collect more from unemployment then actually working. Which is 10 more people now collecting unemployment that didn't need to as their jobs were not in jeopardy.

Which is what happens when you rush a bill through just to show that "you are doing something" without doing a bit of planning. These bills are going to come out as being a complete shit show.

In order to get on state unemployment (+the $600 week Fed supplemental for up to 4 months) they're 'suppose' to have been involuntarily laid off. How are they collecting the unemployment if they weren't laid off?

Massie from KY was one of the few smart ones in Congress to realize this...

Peanuts.


Trump has $2Trillion to hand out as he sees fit, starting with himself, and without oversight and you sit here sniveling about peanuts.

Typical.

[JohnStOnge]

32 out of 19.

That IS something.

A typo. 32 out of 51. 32 outside of the uncertainty intervals and 19 within them. Not good.

But, as I said, if you look at in terms of anticipating the general magnitude on a State by State basis is was OK. Some exceptions like Alabama and Tennessee.

Nationally it did very well.

[mainejeff]

So anyone going to inject disinfectant into their bodies as the President of the United States suggests?

[Ibanez]

So anyone going to inject disinfectant into their bodies as the President of the United States suggests?

The phototherapy is possible - even though Trump sounded like his usual stable genius self when describing it. But injecting disinfectant into the body?


Btw, it's not at all surprisingly how the same story is spun different ways (with details missing). Trump, or any elected official, should be riffing on possible treatments. They aren't doctors. They should be presenting facts and letting health officials discuss the medicine.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... d-humidity


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/politics ... index.html

[GannonFan]

So, another day into this and we're still fumbling all over the place. The difficulty with this, though, is I don't know how we realistically get out of it without a lot more suffering. It is a unprecedently contagious flu for which we have no vaccine for. So it spreads incredibly easily, and unlike flu's where we have attempted vaccines that minimize the danger (never comes close to fully protecting), this one we have nothing for. The antibody test results out of NY mirror the same ones we saw out of Stanford and USC last week that are showing infection rates are incredibly higher than currently reported - the CA ones were saying we're 50x to 80x more infections right now than we're counting. In New York, they're saying rather than 260k infections, they probably have 2.7M infections. To put that in perspective, world-wide, since the start of this thing (so at least November in China) there are only 2.7 reported cases of infections. So just adding in NY increases that count by 100%.

So the difficulty is, how do we possibly contain this given that it can spread extremely quickly (indeed, it already has both here and throughout the world), given that most people who have this and are infectious don't even know they have it and may never know they ever had it, given that we have wide swaths of our population that have the risk factors (obesity, hypertension, male, age, etc) that seem to be more likely to have bad outcomes when they do get it, and given that any realistic vaccine is still 12-18 months away, assuming that we even get one? I don't see a lot of good answers out there right now.

And this is just the health side of it. Politicians on both sides of the aisle and at all levels, from Trump all the way down to that wacko mayor in Vegas, are stumbling around in the dark throwing money all over the place and focusing more on how to spin the news rather than fixing problems. If I was really a drinking man, I'd be pounding some serious amount of alcohol right now witnessing this dumpster-fire of a situation.

[kalm]

So, another day into this and we're still fumbling all over the place. The difficulty with this, though, is I don't know how we realistically get out of it without a lot more suffering. It is a unprecedently contagious flu for which we have no vaccine for. So it spreads incredibly easily, and unlike flu's where we have attempted vaccines that minimize the danger (never comes close to fully protecting), this one we have nothing for. The antibody test results out of NY mirror the same ones we saw out of Stanford and USC last week that are showing infection rates are incredibly higher than currently reported - the CA ones were saying we're 50x to 80x more infections right now than we're counting. In New York, they're saying rather than 260k infections, they probably have 2.7M infections. To put that in perspective, world-wide, since the start of this thing (so at least November in China) there are only 2.7 reported cases of infections. So just adding in NY increases that count by 100%.

So the difficulty is, how do we possibly contain this given that it can spread extremely quickly (indeed, it already has both here and throughout the world), given that most people who have this and are infectious don't even know they have it and may never know they ever had it, given that we have wide swaths of our population that have the risk factors (obesity, hypertension, male, age, etc) that seem to be more likely to have bad outcomes when they do get it, and given that any realistic vaccine is still 12-18 months away, assuming that we even get one? I don't see a lot of good answers out there right now.

And this is just the health side of it. Politicians on both sides of the aisle and at all levels, from Trump all the way down to that wacko mayor in Vegas, are stumbling around in the dark throwing money all over the place and focusing more on how to spin the news rather than fixing problems. If I was really a drinking man, I'd be pounding some serious amount of alcohol right now witnessing this dumpster-fire of a situation.

There’s some promise in this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... a.amp.html

I have an old high school friend is currently working night and day on 3 different trial vaccines. There are hundreds world wide in development it sounds indeed like we’re over a year away and that’s if someone gets lucky and hits the lottery of drug development.

Btw, Ganny you were right in your estimate regarding the sheer number of tests required to safely open things back up. It’s in the trillions worldwide. Surveillance level track and trace lije Taiwan (who seriously kicked ass at halting the spread) is going to be attempted in some states with California and WA already hiring staffing to implement the programs. Of course that ain’t gonna jive well with civil liberties.

Petri dishes like Florida, Georgia, and Sweden will be interesting to watch. Singapore is nervously spiking suggesting a 2nd wave.

Be sure to stock up on meat products because the number of major processing facilities being shut down is already threatening supply chains.

It’s such a weird bug. Almost like it was created to fuck with our psyche. I’m holding out hope that this is still a massive overreaction and at some point we can safely say fuck it but we’re not quite there yet.

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

[89Hen]

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

Our hope of golf courses opening in MD this weekend...

[kalm]

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

Our hope of golf courses opening in MD this weekend...

Yeah...theres a rumor of a trial run here too but I’m skeptical.