Coronavirus COVID-19

[Skjellyfetti]

Illinois has been pretty aggressive in their stay at home order. The update for May opens golf courses. Seems reasonable.

[kalm]

Illinois has been pretty aggressive in their stay at home order. The update for May opens golf courses. Seems reasonable.

Yeah but.......

Commies.

[GannonFan]

So, another day into this and we're still fumbling all over the place. The difficulty with this, though, is I don't know how we realistically get out of it without a lot more suffering. It is a unprecedently contagious flu for which we have no vaccine for. So it spreads incredibly easily, and unlike flu's where we have attempted vaccines that minimize the danger (never comes close to fully protecting), this one we have nothing for. The antibody test results out of NY mirror the same ones we saw out of Stanford and USC last week that are showing infection rates are incredibly higher than currently reported - the CA ones were saying we're 50x to 80x more infections right now than we're counting. In New York, they're saying rather than 260k infections, they probably have 2.7M infections. To put that in perspective, world-wide, since the start of this thing (so at least November in China) there are only 2.7 reported cases of infections. So just adding in NY increases that count by 100%.

So the difficulty is, how do we possibly contain this given that it can spread extremely quickly (indeed, it already has both here and throughout the world), given that most people who have this and are infectious don't even know they have it and may never know they ever had it, given that we have wide swaths of our population that have the risk factors (obesity, hypertension, male, age, etc) that seem to be more likely to have bad outcomes when they do get it, and given that any realistic vaccine is still 12-18 months away, assuming that we even get one? I don't see a lot of good answers out there right now.

And this is just the health side of it. Politicians on both sides of the aisle and at all levels, from Trump all the way down to that wacko mayor in Vegas, are stumbling around in the dark throwing money all over the place and focusing more on how to spin the news rather than fixing problems. If I was really a drinking man, I'd be pounding some serious amount of alcohol right now witnessing this dumpster-fire of a situation.

There’s some promise in this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... a.amp.html

I have an old high school friend is currently working night and day on 3 different trial vaccines. There are hundreds world wide in development it sounds indeed like we’re over a year away and that’s if someone gets lucky and hits the lottery of drug development.

Btw, Ganny you were right in your estimate regarding the sheer number of tests required to safely open things back up. It’s in the trillions worldwide. Surveillance level track and trace lije Taiwan (who seriously kicked ass at halting the spread) is going to be attempted in some states with California and WA already hiring staffing to implement the programs. Of course that ain’t gonna jive well with civil liberties.

Petri dishes like Florida, Georgia, and Sweden will be interesting to watch. Singapore is nervously spiking suggesting a 2nd wave.

Be sure to stock up on meat products because the number of major processing facilities being shut down is already threatening supply chains.

It’s such a weird bug. Almost like it was created to fuck with our psyche. I’m holding out hope that this is still a massive overreaction and at some point we can safely say fuck it but we’re not quite there yet.

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

Taiwan was always an example we can't replicate. Besides the advantages that Asian countries had given their experiences with SARS and other crazy viruses that have come out of China over the past two decades but never really impacted us, Taiwan already was exceedingly cautious and skeptical of visitors from China. Plus, given their potential to be overrun by military assault at a moments notice, and that they are an island, they are pretty capable of shutting the whole country down to the outside in rapid fashion. If only we could live under impending threat of annihilation then maybe we would respond better to virus like these.

But yes, I'm sure we're going to try the testing, but I'm still not seeing how we test all 330M of us, every day, for as long as we need to until a vaccine arrive. Maybe we spread it out and only do the 330M tests on even numbered days, or just Tuesdays and Thursdays, but the longer the interval in between testing the more people you may have come in contact with who will need to be traced and monitored. I'm still waiting to see how we enforce a quarantine on people we deem contagious. Are we going to be quarantine camps or just trust them to shelter in place for 14 days?

[89Hen]

We just got word that we are staying in telecommute until at least May 8. Two more weeks at home for me. If the golf courses open, I'll be fine with that.

[AZGrizFan]

If the virus is 50-80x more prevalent, and thus 50-80x less deadly, isn't all the "daily testing" a moot point? Because that's sure the way things appear to be headed....

[GannonFan]

If the virus is 50-80x more prevalent, and thus 50-80x less deadly, isn't all the "daily testing" a moot point? Because that's sure the way things appear to be headed....

I think we're getting nearer to the more uncomfortable discussion of should we just be isolating the more at risk of the population. I think New Jersey had close to half of the deaths happen in nursing homes, and I'm sure nationwide the bigger problem has been the elderly population, especially the elderly with health complications. Given the prevalence of this virus and the easy transmission, and again, given that the vast majority of people who have this have no idea and will have no idea that they have/have had it, how do we really protect the pockets of the population that are at risk of dying from this? The average death rate is that 0.5%, but that includes the whole population. It's incredibly much higher for the at risk population and lower for everyone else. How do we open up at all with the fact that the vulnerable part of the population will certainly get it eventually but versus the idea that we can't be in lockdown for another 18-24 months (heck, we're already opening up parts now - I'm sure in 2 months most places will be opened up).

[89Hen]

If the virus is 50-80x more prevalent, and thus 50-80x less deadly, isn't all the "daily testing" a moot point? Because that's sure the way things appear to be headed....

I think we're getting nearer to the more uncomfortable discussion of should we just be isolating the more at risk of the population. I think New Jersey had close to half of the deaths happen in nursing homes, and I'm sure nationwide the bigger problem has been the elderly population, especially the elderly with health complications. Given the prevalence of this virus and the easy transmission, and again, given that the vast majority of people who have this have no idea and will have no idea that they have/have had it, how do we really protect the pockets of the population that are at risk of dying from this? The average death rate is that 0.5%, but that includes the whole population. It's incredibly much higher for the at risk population and lower for everyone else. How do we open up at all with the fact that the vulnerable part of the population will certainly get it eventually but versus the idea that we can't be in lockdown for another 18-24 months (heck, we're already opening up parts now - I'm sure in 2 months most places will be opened up).

[GannonFan]

I think we're getting nearer to the more uncomfortable discussion of should we just be isolating the more at risk of the population. I think New Jersey had close to half of the deaths happen in nursing homes, and I'm sure nationwide the bigger problem has been the elderly population, especially the elderly with health complications. Given the prevalence of this virus and the easy transmission, and again, given that the vast majority of people who have this have no idea and will have no idea that they have/have had it, how do we really protect the pockets of the population that are at risk of dying from this? The average death rate is that 0.5%, but that includes the whole population. It's incredibly much higher for the at risk population and lower for everyone else. How do we open up at all with the fact that the vulnerable part of the population will certainly get it eventually but versus the idea that we can't be in lockdown for another 18-24 months (heck, we're already opening up parts now - I'm sure in 2 months most places will be opened up).

And if I remember Logan's Run correctly the little crystals in your hand lit up when you hit 30 years old.

[89Hen]

And if I remember Logan's Run correctly the little crystals in your hand lit up when you hit 30 years old.

We've got a runner!

[Ibanez]

So, another day into this and we're still fumbling all over the place. The difficulty with this, though, is I don't know how we realistically get out of it without a lot more suffering. It is a unprecedently contagious flu for which we have no vaccine for. So it spreads incredibly easily, and unlike flu's where we have attempted vaccines that minimize the danger (never comes close to fully protecting), this one we have nothing for. The antibody test results out of NY mirror the same ones we saw out of Stanford and USC last week that are showing infection rates are incredibly higher than currently reported - the CA ones were saying we're 50x to 80x more infections right now than we're counting. In New York, they're saying rather than 260k infections, they probably have 2.7M infections. To put that in perspective, world-wide, since the start of this thing (so at least November in China) there are only 2.7 reported cases of infections. So just adding in NY increases that count by 100%.

So the difficulty is, how do we possibly contain this given that it can spread extremely quickly (indeed, it already has both here and throughout the world), given that most people who have this and are infectious don't even know they have it and may never know they ever had it, given that we have wide swaths of our population that have the risk factors (obesity, hypertension, male, age, etc) that seem to be more likely to have bad outcomes when they do get it, and given that any realistic vaccine is still 12-18 months away, assuming that we even get one? I don't see a lot of good answers out there right now.

And this is just the health side of it. Politicians on both sides of the aisle and at all levels, from Trump all the way down to that wacko mayor in Vegas, are stumbling around in the dark throwing money all over the place and focusing more on how to spin the news rather than fixing problems. If I was really a drinking man, I'd be pounding some serious amount of alcohol right now witnessing this dumpster-fire of a situation.

There’s some promise in this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... a.amp.html

I have an old high school friend is currently working night and day on 3 different trial vaccines. There are hundreds world wide in development it sounds indeed like we’re over a year away and that’s if someone gets lucky and hits the lottery of drug development.

Btw, Ganny you were right in your estimate regarding the sheer number of tests required to safely open things back up. It’s in the trillions worldwide. Surveillance level track and trace lije Taiwan (who seriously kicked ass at halting the spread) is going to be attempted in some states with California and WA already hiring staffing to implement the programs. Of course that ain’t gonna jive well with civil liberties.

Petri dishes like Florida, Georgia, and Sweden will be interesting to watch. Singapore is nervously spiking suggesting a 2nd wave.

Be sure to stock up on meat products because the number of major processing facilities being shut down is already threatening supply chains.

It’s such a weird bug. Almost like it was created to fuck with our psyche. I’m holding out hope that this is still a massive overreaction and at some point we can safely say fuck it but we’re not quite there yet.

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

It'll never work. They lack the diversity of America.

[GannonFan]

There’s some promise in this article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... a.amp.html

I have an old high school friend is currently working night and day on 3 different trial vaccines. There are hundreds world wide in development it sounds indeed like we’re over a year away and that’s if someone gets lucky and hits the lottery of drug development.

Btw, Ganny you were right in your estimate regarding the sheer number of tests required to safely open things back up. It’s in the trillions worldwide. Surveillance level track and trace lije Taiwan (who seriously kicked ass at halting the spread) is going to be attempted in some states with California and WA already hiring staffing to implement the programs. Of course that ain’t gonna jive well with civil liberties.

Petri dishes like Florida, Georgia, and Sweden will be interesting to watch. Singapore is nervously spiking suggesting a 2nd wave.

Be sure to stock up on meat products because the number of major processing facilities being shut down is already threatening supply chains.

It’s such a weird bug. Almost like it was created to fuck with our psyche. I’m holding out hope that this is still a massive overreaction and at some point we can safely say fuck it but we’re not quite there yet.

I just want to go fishing.

Happy Friday!

It'll never work. They lack the diversity of America.

That too. Our freedom/individuality is a strength and a weakness. It's a bit of the latter in the case of a pandemic.

[89Hen]

It'll never work. They lack the diversity of America.

That too. Our freedom/individuality is a strength and a weakness. It's a bit of the latter in the case of a pandemic.

Didn't go as Raul planned there.

[Ibanez]

That too. Our freedom/individuality is a strength and a weakness. It's a bit of the latter in the case of a pandemic.

Didn't go as Raul planned there.

No that was actually sincere. Comparing the way a sovereign nation of 327M to Taiwan/PRC is (population 24M?) isn't apples to apples. We may be able to learn from them. But learning from other countries is apparently verboten.

[kalm]

Didn't go as Raul planned there.

No that was actually sincere. Comparing the way a sovereign nation of 327M to Taiwan/PRC is (population 24M?) isn't apples to apples. We may be able to learn from them. But learning from other countries is apparently verboten.

I mentioned the civil liberties problem and you’re right on the cultural/compliance and population components.

That’s why it would only happen on a state level here which is already underway. No way we’ll reach their efficiency levels, but there’s still potential for it to help with community spread. UW is already working on a tracking app.

[AZGrizFan]

At the end of the day, most people will get the virus. Relatively few under aged 60 will die. If you're under 60 you've got a better chance of being struck by lightening than dying from COVID-19. The curve tilts upward beyond 60, and gets bad over aged 75, particularly with pre-existing conditions (hypertension, obesity, compromised immune system, respiratory issues, etc.).

Until there's a proven vaccine let's protect our elderly and in the meantime let everyone else get on with the business of living.

[kalm]

At the end of the day, most people will get the virus. Relatively few under aged 60 will die. If you're under 60 you've got a better chance of being struck by lightening than dying from COVID-19. The curve tilts upward beyond 60, and gets bad over aged 75, particularly with pre-existing conditions (hypertension, obesity, compromised immune system, respiratory issues, etc.).

Until there's a proven vaccine let's protect our elderly and in the meantime let everyone else get on with the business of living.

Right...like working in a meat packing plant or going to church....

[AZGrizFan]

At the end of the day, most people will get the virus. Relatively few under aged 60 will die. If you're under 60 you've got a better chance of being struck by lightening than dying from COVID-19. The curve tilts upward beyond 60, and gets bad over aged 75, particularly with pre-existing conditions (hypertension, obesity, compromised immune system, respiratory issues, etc.).

Until there's a proven vaccine let's protect our elderly and in the meantime let everyone else get on with the business of living.

Right...like working in a meat packing plant or going to church....

Odds of dying don't change. They're still <.5%. Get it, get a little sick, and move the fuck on. Do we shut down the country for the flu? You've got a .5% chance of dying from it, and we've got a fucking vaccine for it.

Hell your odds of dying on any given day are > 0. Meteor. Lightening. Angry spouse. Slipping in the river and hip waders filling with water....you get the picture, right?

[SDHornet]

At the end of the day, most people will get the virus. Relatively few under aged 60 will die. If you're under 60 you've got a better chance of being struck by lightening than dying from COVID-19. The curve tilts upward beyond 60, and gets bad over aged 75, particularly with pre-existing conditions (hypertension, obesity, compromised immune system, respiratory issues, etc.).

Until there's a proven vaccine let's protect our elderly and in the meantime let everyone else get on with the business of living.

This.

Sad to see Gannon buying into the hysteria that is going on with this Chinese Flu and turning into Gil2.0. I always had him as one of the more even keeled posters. Not sure how these studies about way more people having this isn't seen as good news, because the dead bodies aren't there to prove this is the killer it was hyped up to be.

If you are old and scared about getting this, stay the fuck inside and take precautions as needed (like you would during any other bad flu season). Everyone else should be allowed to get back to "normal" whilst taking commons sense precautions (masks, hygiene, etc).

[SDHornet]

Right...like working in a meat packing plant or going to church....

Odds of dying don't change. They're still <.5%. Get it, get a little sick, and move the fuck on. Do we shut down the country for the flu? You've got a .5% chance of dying from it, and we've got a fucking vaccine for it.

Hell your odds of dying on any given day are > 0. Meteor. Lightening. Angry spouse. Slipping in the river and hip waders filling with water....you get the picture, right?

Nailed it.

Let's lock down everyone. Oh look, some good news. Let's keep everyone locked down but increase lock down requirements if it gets worse.

[AZGrizFan]

Those of you who are so willing to have everyone give up their constitutional rights for the perception of some mythical incremental increase in your personal "safety" are the same jagoffs who applaud TSA agents when they find a 6 oz tube of toothpaste in some poor sap's backpack and treat him like a fucking terrorist.

The only thing worse than NO safety? The "illusion" of safety. Like that provided by gated communities, TSA agents/screening at airports and masks and rubber gloves and country lockdowns for the flu.

[SDHornet]

Interesting



Feb 23rd Article:

FBI agents are investigating if the six Chinese visitors who trespassed into Mar-a-Lago and a U.S. Naval base were innocent tourists or spies
Federal authorities are investigating if six Chinese visitors who were arrested for trespassing on sensitive Florida properties were spies

Since September 2018, four Chinese men have been arrested at the Naval Air Station Key West and two women at the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach
Suspects told authorities that they had been 'lost' and claimed to be confused tourists when they were arrested
All possessed photos of the facilities, including images of 'sensitive equipment'
One woman was arrested at Mar-a-Lago with four cellphones, a laptop, a thumb drive and a hard drive
Another had nine USB drives, five SIM cards, another cellphone, a radio frequency device to detect hidden cameras and over $8,000 in cash
Authorities are determining if the instances were actually a coordinated espionage effort

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... spies.html

This should spurn some good conspiracy theories.

[AZGrizFan]

Interesting



Feb 23rd Article:

FBI agents are investigating if the six Chinese visitors who trespassed into Mar-a-Lago and a U.S. Naval base were innocent tourists or spies
Federal authorities are investigating if six Chinese visitors who were arrested for trespassing on sensitive Florida properties were spies

Since September 2018, four Chinese men have been arrested at the Naval Air Station Key West and two women at the Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach
Suspects told authorities that they had been 'lost' and claimed to be confused tourists when they were arrested
All possessed photos of the facilities, including images of 'sensitive equipment'
One woman was arrested at Mar-a-Lago with four cellphones, a laptop, a thumb drive and a hard drive
Another had nine USB drives, five SIM cards, another cellphone, a radio frequency device to detect hidden cameras and over $8,000 in cash
Authorities are determining if the instances were actually a coordinated espionage effort

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... spies.html

This should spurn some good conspiracy theories.

"Lost tourists" my ass....Are they still in jail?

[89Hen]

Didn't go as Raul planned there.

No that was actually sincere. Comparing the way a sovereign nation of 327M to Taiwan/PRC is (population 24M?) isn't apples to apples. We may be able to learn from them. But learning from other countries is apparently verboten.

Sincere? You were fishing for exactly your last comment there.

[GannonFan]

At the end of the day, most people will get the virus. Relatively few under aged 60 will die. If you're under 60 you've got a better chance of being struck by lightening than dying from COVID-19. The curve tilts upward beyond 60, and gets bad over aged 75, particularly with pre-existing conditions (hypertension, obesity, compromised immune system, respiratory issues, etc.).

Until there's a proven vaccine let's protect our elderly and in the meantime let everyone else get on with the business of living.

This.

Sad to see Gannon buying into the hysteria that is going on with this Chinese Flu and turning into Gil2.0. I always had him as one of the more even keeled posters. Not sure how these studies about way more people having this isn't seen as good news, because the dead bodies aren't there to prove this is the killer it was hyped up to be.

If you are old and scared about getting this, stay the fuck inside and take precautions as needed (like you would during any other bad flu season). Everyone else should be allowed to get back to "normal" whilst taking commons sense precautions (masks, hygiene, etc).

Where do I exhibit hysteria? On the contrary, just being level-headed about this. Heck, I'm already on record that we should open up a lot more places, just with a lot of precautions in place (wearing masks, taking temperature checks, social distancing, reduced numbers in stores or restaurants, etc). I think we do need to talk about the reality of what's going on - this is a flu, but it's a flu that is highly contagious, more contagious than anything we've dealt with in at least a generation. And people with no symptoms, and even worse people that will never get a symptom, can get it and pass it on (hence why it's so contagious). And yes, older people, especially those with health issues, are really prone to having bad outcomes once they get it. And unfortunately, our country has a significant amount of people that fall into the high risk category. I do think we need to make it clear that those folks should do as little interacting as possible for the foreseeable future. I think that's just reality right now.

[89Hen]

Sad to see Gannon buying into the hysteria that is going on with this Chinese Flu and turning into Gil2.0.

Where do I exhibit hysteria? On the contrary, just being level-headed about this.

Yeah, I'm not seeing it SD.