Coronavirus COVID-19

[kalm]

The income tax first came about as a result of the crisis of the civil war. It was eliminated but dramatically raised again during both World Wars as well as the Great Depression. These taxes were all progressive in nature. Consider them a cost of remaining solvent or the price of having obtained significant riches leading up to crisis periods. What we do in between crisis periods from a tax and spending standpoint is the forever problem.

The definition of high end taxes depends on the magnitude of the crisis. It’s eerily similar to the question of what’s the tolerance of lives loss while trying to hold on to everyone’s preconceived standard of living.

We’re still in the discover phase of knowing both the economic and health magnitudes of this one.

(Editorializing admitted)

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

So if we just open’er back up you’re guaranteeing no additional outbreaks that shut down entire states or industries and no second wave?

Sweet!

[Ibanez]

The income tax first came about as a result of the crisis of the civil war. It was eliminated but dramatically raised again during both World Wars as well as the Great Depression. These taxes were all progressive in nature. Consider them a cost of remaining solvent or the price of having obtained significant riches leading up to crisis periods. What we do in between crisis periods from a tax and spending standpoint is the forever problem.

The definition of high end taxes depends on the magnitude of the crisis. It’s eerily similar to the question of what’s the tolerance of lives loss while trying to hold on to everyone’s preconceived standard of living.

We’re still in the discover phase of knowing both the economic and health magnitudes of this one.

(Editorializing admitted)

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

So the government sought to promote fear? Is this the fear and hysteria that the media was peddling?

If so, why isn't our government smarter than this? Republicans and Democrats seem to have been conned by the media.

[AZGrizFan]

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

So the government sought to promote fear? Is this the fear and hysteria that the media was peddling?

If so, why isn't our government smarter than this? Republicans and Democrats seem to have been conned by the media.

They bought into it. Power grab. Money play. Pretty simple, really.

[AZGrizFan]

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

So if we just open’er back up you’re guaranteeing no additional outbreaks that shut down entire states or industries and no second wave?

Sweet!

If it were up to me? No, an outbreak (or "wave") wouldn't shutdown anything.

[UNI88]

The income tax first came about as a result of the crisis of the civil war. It was eliminated but dramatically raised again during both World Wars as well as the Great Depression. These taxes were all progressive in nature. Consider them a cost of remaining solvent or the price of having obtained significant riches leading up to crisis periods. What we do in between crisis periods from a tax and spending standpoint is the forever problem.

The definition of high end taxes depends on the magnitude of the crisis. It’s eerily similar to the question of what’s the tolerance of lives loss while trying to hold on to everyone’s preconceived standard of living.

We’re still in the discover phase of knowing both the economic and health magnitudes of this one.

(Editorializing admitted)

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

The economic impact is a snowball rolling down a mountain. The magnitude is actually very small right now and doesn't seem that bad but if it keeps rolling it's going to get bigger and bigger (maybe even exponentially bigger) and the magnitude has the potential to dwarf the Recession of 2018. If I have time later I'll post the reasons behind my thinking.

[AZGrizFan]

The "health magnitude" is getting pretty well known....and it's a big fat pfffffft.

The "economic magnitude" is purely self induced because the government saw an opportunity to promote the fear porn being pumped out.

The economic impact is a snowball rolling down a mountain. The magnitude is actually very small right now and doesn't seem that bad but if it keeps rolling it's going to get bigger and bigger (maybe even exponentially bigger) and the magnitude has the potential to dwarf the Recession of 2018. If I have time later I'll post the reasons behind my thinking.

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

[UNI88]

The economic impact is a snowball rolling down a mountain. The magnitude is actually very small right now and doesn't seem that bad but if it keeps rolling it's going to get bigger and bigger (maybe even exponentially bigger) and the magnitude has the potential to dwarf the Recession of 2018. If I have time later I'll post the reasons behind my thinking.

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

Compared to where I think/fear we could be headed? Yes. Unfortunately.

[kalm]

So if we just open’er back up you’re guaranteeing no additional outbreaks that shut down entire states or industries and no second wave?

Sweet!

If it were up to me? No, an outbreak (or "wave") wouldn't shutdown anything.

Regardless of size or mutations? And you base that on what?

[AZGrizFan]

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

Compared to where I think/fear we could be headed? Yes. Unfortunately.

Well, THAT much is probably true.

[AZGrizFan]

If it were up to me? No, an outbreak (or "wave") wouldn't shutdown anything.

Regardless of size or mutations? And you base that on what?

On the impact the economic shutdown has had on the globe.

[Ibanez]

So the government sought to promote fear? Is this the fear and hysteria that the media was peddling?

If so, why isn't our government smarter than this? Republicans and Democrats seem to have been conned by the media.

They bought into it. Power grab. Money play. Pretty simple, really.

I see what you're saying.

So...having said that. Do you plan on voting for those bastards in 2020?

[kalm]

Regardless of size or mutations? And you base that on what?

On the impact the economic shutdown has had on the globe.

[89Hen]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/opinions ... index.html

Covid-19 is poised to become an extinction-level event for America's nonprofits. Cultural institutions have been forced to close their doors. Organizations working in and around public schools or in senior centers cannot provide services because their clients are not showing up.

Fundraising events have been canceled. Many essential front-line social services -- e.g., operating homeless shelters -- cannot be delivered remotely and pose particular risks of infection, increasing the costs of keeping staff safe.

Unless government, funders and nonprofit leaders take immediate and decisive action, many nonprofits around the nation may just disappear over the next few months leaving those they serve and employ in disastrous circumstances.

[GannonFan]

The economic impact is a snowball rolling down a mountain. The magnitude is actually very small right now and doesn't seem that bad but if it keeps rolling it's going to get bigger and bigger (maybe even exponentially bigger) and the magnitude has the potential to dwarf the Recession of 2018. If I have time later I'll post the reasons behind my thinking.

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

In PA we're looking at 25% unemployment right now - for every 4 workers, 1 is unemployed. State isn't even beginning to "open up" for at least another 2 weeks, and then only in the areas of the state, of which there are many, where there have been zero COVID deaths so far and extremely few positive cases. No idea when the populous areas will open up. Considering the path of unemployment claims so far, it's very likely we will be looking at 30% plus unemployment in a few weeks, if not even higher. Think of that, that could be in the neighborhood of 1 in every 3 people being unemployed - that's hard to wrap your head around.

The less people working, the less money paid in taxes, means the less money available for government to pay out, not only in unemployment compensation but even just money to afford anyone on the state government payrolls. You're already seeing colleges are talking about losses of at least $100M for the next year, both from no more state money coming their way (see before - can't have state money if people don't work and pay taxes) but also from kids deciding going to virtual college in the fall isn't worth the money. When we start laying off teachers because we can't afford them then we'll know we've really hit the crapper.

I said it before in a very careful way, but considering that 60%-70% of these deaths are in the elderly population, and even more so the vast majority are in nursing homes and other medical care facilities, are we approaching the macabre point where we tell the older population to stay inside and we open things up for everyone else with minimal restrictions? Considering the numerous antibody tests now (two in CA, the one in NY, another one in Miami, and numerous others) that say that the population that has already been infected is significantly higher than being reported (some of those studies were saying we're 50x to 80x under-reporting infections) and that most of the infected but unreported are either not impacted by this or only very slightly, we seem to be using a sledgehammer approach to this when it really needs a small scapel (couldn't think of a better analogy).

[AZGrizFan]

They bought into it. Power grab. Money play. Pretty simple, really.

I see what you're saying.

So...having said that. Do you plan on voting for those bastards in 2020?

I may abstain completely at this point.

[AZGrizFan]

On the impact the economic shutdown has had on the globe.

Nice. Nice to see such empathy for the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are left without a livelihood. Empathy for those victims of increased spousal abuse, increased child abuse, increased suicide, increased drug use, death from lack of appropriate medical care, etc., etc.

You really are an empathetic dude, aren’t you?

[AZGrizFan]

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

In PA we're looking at 25% unemployment right now - for every 4 workers, 1 is unemployed. State isn't even beginning to "open up" for at least another 2 weeks, and then only in the areas of the state, of which there are many, where there have been zero COVID deaths so far and extremely few positive cases. No idea when the populous areas will open up. Considering the path of unemployment claims so far, it's very likely we will be looking at 30% plus unemployment in a few weeks, if not even higher. Think of that, that could be in the neighborhood of 1 in every 3 people being unemployed - that's hard to wrap your head around.

The less people working, the less money paid in taxes, means the less money available for government to pay out, not only in unemployment compensation but even just money to afford anyone on the state government payrolls. You're already seeing colleges are talking about losses of at least $100M for the next year, both from no more state money coming their way (see before - can't have state money if people don't work and pay taxes) but also from kids deciding going to virtual college in the fall isn't worth the money. When we start laying off teachers because we can't afford them then we'll know we've really hit the crapper.

I said it before in a very careful way, but considering that 60%-70% of these deaths are in the elderly population, and even more so the vast majority are in nursing homes and other medical care facilities, are we approaching the macabre point where we tell the older population to stay inside and we open things up for everyone else with minimal restrictions? Considering the numerous antibody tests now (two in CA, the one in NY, another one in Miami, and numerous others) that say that the population that has already been infected is significantly higher than being reported (some of those studies were saying we're 50x to 80x under-reporting infections) and that most of the infected but unreported are either not impacted by this or only very slightly, we seem to be using a sledgehammer approach to this when it really needs a small scapel (couldn't think of a better analogy).

It’s the perfect analogy and one I’ve used a number of times on here when discussing our response. Fixed a chipped windshield with a sledgehammer.

Fucking retards, the lot of ‘em.

[kalm]

Nice. Nice to see such empathy for the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are left without a livelihood. Empathy for those victims of increased spousal abuse, increased child abuse, increased suicide, increased drug use, death from lack of appropriate medical care, etc., etc.

You really are an empathetic dude, aren’t you?

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

[GannonFan]

Nice. Nice to see such empathy for the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are left without a livelihood. Empathy for those victims of increased spousal abuse, increased child abuse, increased suicide, increased drug use, death from lack of appropriate medical care, etc., etc.

You really are an empathetic dude, aren’t you?

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

Why do you assume that we can avoid a second wave (or a third, or so on)? What science are you relying on to assume that the virus will be completely eradicated and those at most risk from succumbing to it (i.e. not just infected, but actually impacted severely by it) will at some point be fully protected from this?

[kalm]

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

Why do you assume that we can avoid a second wave (or a third, or so on)? What science are you relying on to assume that the virus will be completely eradicated and those at most risk from succumbing to it (i.e. not just infected, but actually impacted severely by it) will at some point be fully protected from this?

I don’t. We’re already doing almost exactly what you’re suggesting only it isnt happening fast enough for some. Like I acknowledged pages ago, finding the sweet spot between economic collapse and preventing large scale deaths is a tough question that nobody has a for sure answer on.

[GannonFan]

Why do you assume that we can avoid a second wave (or a third, or so on)? What science are you relying on to assume that the virus will be completely eradicated and those at most risk from succumbing to it (i.e. not just infected, but actually impacted severely by it) will at some point be fully protected from this?

I don’t. We’re already doing almost exactly what you’re suggesting only it isnt happening fast enough for some. Like I acknowledged pages ago, finding the sweet spot between economic collapse and preventing large scale deaths is a tough question that nobody has a for sure answer on.

The problem is with the latter - we don't have an answer on how to prevent large scale deaths. Heck, why does New York keep getting more and more positive cases and folks coming down with and dying of Covid? NYC has been more locked down than any place in America to date - at least a month and a half now - and there are still new cases every day. This virus is really that contagious and it's what makes it so different than what we've seen before. But, the virus is also amazingly targeted in terms of who really suffers from this - the elderly. Of course there are examples of non-elderly having terrible outcomes, but statistically they are minuscule compared to the older population. And I fear we haven't even really heard the specifics about nursing homes and personal home care deaths - we're probably undercounting those. But I fear that in our focus to try to stop anyone and everyone from getting infected, with a virus that won't impact the vast majority of us, that we're doing a terrible job of fighting the virus, a terrible job of really protecting those that need to be protected, and we're adding years of economic misery on top of all of this like some twisted cherry on top.

[kalm]

I don’t. We’re already doing almost exactly what you’re suggesting only it isnt happening fast enough for some. Like I acknowledged pages ago, finding the sweet spot between economic collapse and preventing large scale deaths is a tough question that nobody has a for sure answer on.

The problem is with the latter - we don't have an answer on how to prevent large scale deaths. Heck, why does New York keep getting more and more positive cases and folks coming down with and dying of Covid? NYC has been more locked down than any place in America to date - at least a month and a half now - and there are still new cases every day. This virus is really that contagious and it's what makes it so different than what we've seen before. But, the virus is also amazingly targeted in terms of who really suffers from this - the elderly. Of course there are examples of non-elderly having terrible outcomes, but statistically they are minuscule compared to the older population. And I fear we haven't even really heard the specifics about nursing homes and personal home care deaths - we're probably undercounting those. But I fear that in our focus to try to stop anyone and everyone from getting infected, with a virus that won't impact the vast majority of us, that we're doing a terrible job of fighting the virus, a terrible job of really protecting those that need to be protected, and we're adding years of economic misery on top of all of this like some twisted cherry on top.

Very fair assessment and concerns.

[AZGrizFan]

Nice. Nice to see such empathy for the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are left without a livelihood. Empathy for those victims of increased spousal abuse, increased child abuse, increased suicide, increased drug use, death from lack of appropriate medical care, etc., etc.

You really are an empathetic dude, aren’t you?

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

Well, given that the original models were off by magnitudes, I’d say my tolerance level is fine. Take necessary precautions, those at risk can take extra precautions, but open it back up....will there be a tidal wave of new cases/deaths? Possibly....but will it be an Indonesian tidal wave? Or will it only raise the tide 6”? Given how far off the original models were, I’ll take the 6” guess, Alex.

[UNI88]

Nice. Nice to see such empathy for the hundreds of thousands of small business owners who are left without a livelihood. Empathy for those victims of increased spousal abuse, increased child abuse, increased suicide, increased drug use, death from lack of appropriate medical care, etc., etc.

You really are an empathetic dude, aren’t you?

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths caused by the restrictions? What science are you basing that on?

[Silenoz]

I don’t. We’re already doing almost exactly what you’re suggesting only it isnt happening fast enough for some. Like I acknowledged pages ago, finding the sweet spot between economic collapse and preventing large scale deaths is a tough question that nobody has a for sure answer on.

The problem is with the latter - we don't have an answer on how to prevent large scale deaths. Heck, why does New York keep getting more and more positive cases and folks coming down with and dying of Covid? NYC has been more locked down than any place in America to date - at least a month and a half now - and there are still new cases every day. This virus is really that contagious and it's what makes it so different than what we've seen before. But, the virus is also amazingly targeted in terms of who really suffers from this - the elderly. Of course there are examples of non-elderly having terrible outcomes, but statistically they are minuscule compared to the older population. And I fear we haven't even really heard the specifics about nursing homes and personal home care deaths - we're probably undercounting those. But I fear that in our focus to try to stop anyone and everyone from getting infected, with a virus that won't impact the vast majority of us, that we're doing a terrible job of fighting the virus, a terrible job of really protecting those that need to be protected, and we're adding years of economic misery on top of all of this like some twisted cherry on top.

One can hope that we learn from this and handle any future pandemics (with potentially much deadlier diseases) with something resembling a plan with proactive steps.