Coronavirus COVID-19

[AZGrizFan]

We’ve covered this before. I was asking what you based your infectious disease opinion of outbreaks and 2nd waves was. You replied with strictly economics. Both need to be considered is my take. I’ll rephrase the question:

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths? What science are you basing that on?

Best of luck with your empathy.

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths caused by the restrictions? What science are you basing that on?

Wonder how many family members of the 20 million newly minted unemployed will die because they have no health insurance.

[Skjellyfetti]

Wonder how many family members of the 20 million newly minted unemployed will die because they have no health insurance.

It's almost as if your healthcare shouldn't depend on your job.

[AZGrizFan]

Wonder how many family members of the 20 million newly minted unemployed will die because they have no health insurance.

It's almost as if your healthcare shouldn't depend on your job.

Couldn’t agree more. But it shouldn’t depend on your government either. They are literally the LAST group I’d want involved in my healthcare....COVID-19 response being the fucking poster child (and no, it has nothing to do with Trump).

[GannonFan]

The problem is with the latter - we don't have an answer on how to prevent large scale deaths. Heck, why does New York keep getting more and more positive cases and folks coming down with and dying of Covid? NYC has been more locked down than any place in America to date - at least a month and a half now - and there are still new cases every day. This virus is really that contagious and it's what makes it so different than what we've seen before. But, the virus is also amazingly targeted in terms of who really suffers from this - the elderly. Of course there are examples of non-elderly having terrible outcomes, but statistically they are minuscule compared to the older population. And I fear we haven't even really heard the specifics about nursing homes and personal home care deaths - we're probably undercounting those. But I fear that in our focus to try to stop anyone and everyone from getting infected, with a virus that won't impact the vast majority of us, that we're doing a terrible job of fighting the virus, a terrible job of really protecting those that need to be protected, and we're adding years of economic misery on top of all of this like some twisted cherry on top.

One can hope that we learn from this and handle any future pandemics (with potentially much deadlier diseases) with something resembling a plan with proactive steps.

Eh, I wouldn't count on it. We're using the playbook from the bubonic plague right now - hide in your houses until it's over. The problem is each of these viruses are unique and new that it's hard to really plan for them. And that's not even taking into account how it mutates over time. This one is really just the flu but amped up in terms of transmission so the number of infected is huge compared to regular flu. Imagine what will happen when we get one that is much higher in terms of mortality rate - or one that targets all ages.

[UNI88]

20+ million unemployed is "very small"? $10T Fed balance sheet is small? Four different stimulus packages already is small?

I'd hate to see "big" in your world....

In PA we're looking at 25% unemployment right now - for every 4 workers, 1 is unemployed. State isn't even beginning to "open up" for at least another 2 weeks, and then only in the areas of the state, of which there are many, where there have been zero COVID deaths so far and extremely few positive cases. No idea when the populous areas will open up. Considering the path of unemployment claims so far, it's very likely we will be looking at 30% plus unemployment in a few weeks, if not even higher. Think of that, that could be in the neighborhood of 1 in every 3 people being unemployed - that's hard to wrap your head around.

The less people working, the less money paid in taxes, means the less money available for government to pay out, not only in unemployment compensation but even just money to afford anyone on the state government payrolls. You're already seeing colleges are talking about losses of at least $100M for the next year, both from no more state money coming their way (see before - can't have state money if people don't work and pay taxes) but also from kids deciding going to virtual college in the fall isn't worth the money. When we start laying off teachers because we can't afford them then we'll know we've really hit the crapper.

I said it before in a very careful way, but considering that 60%-70% of these deaths are in the elderly population, and even more so the vast majority are in nursing homes and other medical care facilities, are we approaching the macabre point where we tell the older population to stay inside and we open things up for everyone else with minimal restrictions? Considering the numerous antibody tests now (two in CA, the one in NY, another one in Miami, and numerous others) that say that the population that has already been infected is significantly higher than being reported (some of those studies were saying we're 50x to 80x under-reporting infections) and that most of the infected but unreported are either not impacted by this or only very slightly, we seem to be using a sledgehammer approach to this when it really needs a small scapel (couldn't think of a better analogy).

Thanks Ganny for getting the ball rolling on how big of an economic disaster this could end up being. In Oregon, 1 in 6 workers are on unemployment now and they just opened it up to independent contractors and the self-employed today so that number will likely get worse. And every person that becomes unemployed and every business that goes under means less purchasing which puts tremendous pressure on their suppliers and other companies to tighten their belts and lay people off which extends the pressure to more companies and more people. The snowball keeps getting bigger and rolling down the mountain faster.

You talked about the impact on government and Kalm talks about raising taxes especially on the wealthy. I don't think a tax increase is going to raise more money. At a federal level, it might help reduce the impact of losing all of that revenue from people moving from the workforce to unemployed but I don't think it will completely cover it. State and local governments are already starting to suffer and they're going to have to cut staff and eventually essential services will be hit. Will people die because of reduced police, fire and social services? And who is the government going to tax? If we're at 25% unemployed now and 30% is just around the corner, how long until we get to 50%? Is taxing the sh!t out of the 50% going to help or is it going to make the snowball bigger and roll faster? Tax the rich? Taxing wealth (as opposed to income) is a short-term trick because if the market tanks, the wealth won't be growing that much. And what's to prevent a billionaire from renouncing their citizenship and moving their money off-shore to protect it?

As mentioned earlier, not-for-profits that provide essential services (foodbanks, shelters, etc.) are really hurting, they can't hold in-person fundraisers and people are being much more conservative with their money. The services they provide are being impacted and people are going to suffer and die without their help.

Government spending is going up, government revenue is going down and the only way to continue funding additional CARES payments is to print money. Weimar Republic here we come.

At some point the snowball becomes an avalanche and wipes out everything in its path.

[AZGrizFan]

In PA we're looking at 25% unemployment right now - for every 4 workers, 1 is unemployed. State isn't even beginning to "open up" for at least another 2 weeks, and then only in the areas of the state, of which there are many, where there have been zero COVID deaths so far and extremely few positive cases. No idea when the populous areas will open up. Considering the path of unemployment claims so far, it's very likely we will be looking at 30% plus unemployment in a few weeks, if not even higher. Think of that, that could be in the neighborhood of 1 in every 3 people being unemployed - that's hard to wrap your head around.

The less people working, the less money paid in taxes, means the less money available for government to pay out, not only in unemployment compensation but even just money to afford anyone on the state government payrolls. You're already seeing colleges are talking about losses of at least $100M for the next year, both from no more state money coming their way (see before - can't have state money if people don't work and pay taxes) but also from kids deciding going to virtual college in the fall isn't worth the money. When we start laying off teachers because we can't afford them then we'll know we've really hit the crapper.

I said it before in a very careful way, but considering that 60%-70% of these deaths are in the elderly population, and even more so the vast majority are in nursing homes and other medical care facilities, are we approaching the macabre point where we tell the older population to stay inside and we open things up for everyone else with minimal restrictions? Considering the numerous antibody tests now (two in CA, the one in NY, another one in Miami, and numerous others) that say that the population that has already been infected is significantly higher than being reported (some of those studies were saying we're 50x to 80x under-reporting infections) and that most of the infected but unreported are either not impacted by this or only very slightly, we seem to be using a sledgehammer approach to this when it really needs a small scapel (couldn't think of a better analogy).

Thanks Ganny for getting the ball rolling on how big of an economic disaster this could end up being. In Oregon, 1 in 6 workers are on unemployment now and they just opened it up to independent contractors and the self-employed today so that number will likely get worse. And every person that becomes unemployed and every business that goes under means less purchasing which puts tremendous pressure on their suppliers and other companies to tighten their belts and lay people off which extends the pressure to more companies and more people. The snowball keeps getting bigger and rolling down the mountain faster.

You talked about the impact on government and Kalm talks about raising taxes especially on the wealthy. I don't think a tax increase is going to raise more money. At a federal level, it might help reduce the impact of losing all of that revenue from people moving from the workforce to unemployed but I don't think it will completely cover it. State and local governments are already starting to suffer and they're going to have to cut staff and eventually essential services will be hit. Will people die because of reduced police, fire and social services? And who is the government going to tax? If we're at 25% unemployed now and 30% is just around the corner, how long until we get to 50%? Is taxing the sh!t out of the 50% going to help or is it going to make the snowball bigger and roll faster? Tax the rich? Taxing wealth (as opposed to income) is a short-term trick because if the market tanks, the wealth won't be growing that much. And what's to prevent a billionaire from renouncing their citizenship and moving their money off-shore to protect it?

As mentioned earlier, not-for-profits that provide essential services (foodbanks, shelters, etc.) are really hurting, they can't hold in-person fundraisers and people are being much more conservative with their money. The services they provide are being impacted and people are going to suffer and die without their help.

Government spending is going up, government revenue is going down and the only way to continue funding additional CARES payments is to print money. Weimar Republic here we come.

At some point the snowball becomes an avalanche and wipes out everything in its path.

I love you two. You’re like a kinder, gentler, more understanding, more empathetic.....ME.

[kalm]

What’s your tolerance level of potential and real deaths caused by the restrictions? What science are you basing that on?

Wonder how many family members of the 20 million newly minted unemployed will die because they have no health insurance.

Like I acknowledged...you can’t separate the two. Right now there are still unknowns about the virus. It’s easier to anticipate and prepare for the economic impacts including those to health.

More large scale economic studies are needed and more than likely have been worked on for weeks. How much time and resources do we have vs. the future and lengthier economic impact of quickly attempting to go back to normal? It seems like too many are still clinging to the hope this is all a bad dream and we can return to normal soon. Normal waved bye bye already. That doesn’t mean we can’t still bounce back to a new normal with, yes, some casualties, but also some silver linings.

[AZGrizFan]

Wonder how many family members of the 20 million newly minted unemployed will die because they have no health insurance.

Like I acknowledged...you can’t separate the two. Right now there are still unknowns about the virus. It’s easier to anticipate and prepare for the economic impacts including those to health.

More large scale economic studies are needed and more than likely have been worked on for weeks. How much time and resources do we have vs. the future and lengthier economic impact of quickly attempting to go back to normal? It seems like too many are still clinging to the hope this is all a bad dream and we can return to normal soon. Normal waved bye bye already. That doesn’t mean we can’t still bounce back to a new normal with, yes, some casualties, but also some silver linings.

Nobody thinks we’re going back to “normal”. Hence the “take necessary precautions” and open back up. I expect masks and gloves are now part of the equation forever. No handshakes. No hugs. Social distancing. Etc., etc. But none of that precludes us from opening the economy back up.

How easy is it to anticipate how many people are dying or going to die because they did not get the testing they needed for a health problem NOT named COVID 19? How many heart attacks, cancers, or other diseases are going undiagnosed or missed because they aren’t going to hospitals? How easy it it to anticipate how many people are going to die because they or their primary supporter lost their jobs and their healthcare? How easy is it to anticipate how many people are dying or going to die because they’ve been sequestered with a child abuser, a spouse abuser, a drug abuser? How easy is it to anticipate how many are going to commit suicide because they lost everything when their small business closed due to the shutdown? How easy is it to anticipate how many are going to commit suicide because their retirement is now wiped out?

These deaths are going uncounted. Or they’re being counted as COVID deaths (kind of like the miracle that flu deaths are almost nonexistent right now). It’s a damned shame that people who say they’re so empathetic to those suffering from COVID 19 many times seem they couldn’t care less about the folks dying from OTHER stuff, directly related to the COVID shutdown.

[89Hen]

Nobody thinks we’re going back to “normal”.

I said that about 2654 posts ago on this thread.

[UNI88]

Where's Trip to complain about the Boomers taking money from their grandkids future earnings to pay for things today? These CARE packages are doing the same thing.

Has his argument for open borders been listed as a fatality of COVID-19 yet?

[grizzaholic]

Where's Trip to complain about the Boomers taking money from their grandkids future earnings to pay for things today? These CARE packages are doing the same thing.

Has his argument for open borders been listed as a fatality of COVID-19 yet?

He is on a flight to NK to suck Kim's dick.

[UNI88]

Where's Trip to complain about the Boomers taking money from their grandkids future earnings to pay for things today? These CARE packages are doing the same thing.

Has his argument for open borders been listed as a fatality of COVID-19 yet?

He is on a flight to NK to suck Kim's dick.

Is that a new way to resuscitate someone?

[SDHornet]

The data disagrees with your statement.

Oh really? Thank god!

Yep. CA has 40M people and just under 1800 deaths and the Chinese Flu has been here at least since mid to late January. Time to go back to work.


And fuck China.

[SDHornet]

In PA we're looking at 25% unemployment right now - for every 4 workers, 1 is unemployed. State isn't even beginning to "open up" for at least another 2 weeks, and then only in the areas of the state, of which there are many, where there have been zero COVID deaths so far and extremely few positive cases. No idea when the populous areas will open up. Considering the path of unemployment claims so far, it's very likely we will be looking at 30% plus unemployment in a few weeks, if not even higher. Think of that, that could be in the neighborhood of 1 in every 3 people being unemployed - that's hard to wrap your head around.

The less people working, the less money paid in taxes, means the less money available for government to pay out, not only in unemployment compensation but even just money to afford anyone on the state government payrolls. You're already seeing colleges are talking about losses of at least $100M for the next year, both from no more state money coming their way (see before - can't have state money if people don't work and pay taxes) but also from kids deciding going to virtual college in the fall isn't worth the money. When we start laying off teachers because we can't afford them then we'll know we've really hit the crapper.

I said it before in a very careful way, but considering that 60%-70% of these deaths are in the elderly population, and even more so the vast majority are in nursing homes and other medical care facilities, are we approaching the macabre point where we tell the older population to stay inside and we open things up for everyone else with minimal restrictions? Considering the numerous antibody tests now (two in CA, the one in NY, another one in Miami, and numerous others) that say that the population that has already been infected is significantly higher than being reported (some of those studies were saying we're 50x to 80x under-reporting infections) and that most of the infected but unreported are either not impacted by this or only very slightly, we seem to be using a sledgehammer approach to this when it really needs a small scapel (couldn't think of a better analogy).

It’s the perfect analogy and one I’ve used a number of times on here when discussing our response. Fixed a chipped windshield with a sledgehammer.

Fucking retards, the lot of ‘em.

Yeah but we gotta save lives!!! LIVES!!!!!!

[kalm]

Oh really? Thank god!

Yep. CA has 40M people and just under 1800 deaths and the Chinese Flu has been here at least since mid to late January. Time to go back to work.


And fuck China.

Hey! I can play the anecdotal game too...

Covid has now killed more Americans in 10 weeks than the Vietnam War did in 12 years.

Btw, we’re still recovering from the Vietnam War.

[SDHornet]

Where's Trip to complain about the Boomers taking money from their grandkids future earnings to pay for things today? These CARE packages are doing the same thing.

Has his argument for open borders been listed as a fatality of COVID-19 yet?

He is on a flight to NK to suck Kim's dick.

[SDHornet]

Yep. CA has 40M people and just under 1800 deaths and the Chinese Flu has been here at least since mid to late January. Time to go back to work.


And fuck China.

Hey! I can play the anecdotal game too...

Covid has now killed more Americans in 10 weeks than the Vietnam War did in 12 years.

Btw, we’re still recovering from the Vietnam War.

Giving you a death count in comparison to its population is anecdotal?

You've really struggled in this thread. It was funny, but now just sad.

[JohnStOnge]

This is going to be seen as way worse than the seasonal flu. More on that after the death COUNT for this over about 2 months exceeds the CDC deaths point ESTIMATE for the worst seasonal flu mortality in at least 40 years (the 2017-2018 flu season) for an entire flu season. That'll probably happen before this weekend.

Oh yeah: And that will have happened even though there are a bunch of extreme measures in place that are never in place to try to stem the impact of seasonal influenza.

The idea that this is within the realm of the normal seasonal flu is becoming more and more untenable.

[kalm]

Hey! I can play the anecdotal game too...

Covid has now killed more Americans in 10 weeks than the Vietnam War did in 12 years.

Btw, we’re still recovering from the Vietnam War.

Giving you a death count in comparison to its population is anecdotal?

Yes. Not taking into account factors like duration of disease, bounce backs, and preventative numbers that have skewed the death rate down.



I at least can still admit you may be right and it’s all an over-reaction and let’s eat, grandma.

You...on the other hand think yo already think you know the answers because you’ve looked at all the data.

[kalm]

This is going to be seen as way worse than the seasonal flu. More on that after the death COUNT for this over about 2 months exceeds the CDC deaths point ESTIMATE for the worst seasonal flu mortality in at least 40 years (the 2017-2018 flu season) for an entire flu season. That'll probably happen before this weekend.

Oh yeah: And that will have happened even though there are a bunch of extreme measures in place that are never in place to try to stem the impact of seasonal influenza.

The idea that this is within the realm of the normal seasonal flu is becoming more and more untenable.

[SDHornet]

Giving you a death count in comparison to its population is anecdotal?

Yes. Not taking into account factors like duration of disease, bounce backs, and preventative numbers that have skewed the death rate down.



I at least can still admit you may be right and it’s all an over-reaction and let’s eat, grandma.

You...on the other hand think yo already think you know the answers because you’ve looked at all the data.

Except when you compare Chinese Flu deaths in CA to other things, it gets even more laughable, here are the top 10 in 2017 per the CDC:

CA Leading Causes of Death, 2017 Deaths
1. Heart Disease 62,797
2. Cancer 59,516
3. Stroke 16,355
4. Alzheimer’s Disease 16,238
5. Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 13,881
6. Accidents 13,840
7. Diabetes 9,595
8. Influenza/Pneumonia 6,340
9. Hypertension 5,596
10. Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis 5,325

Tack on another 133k abortion deaths in 2017 and the idea of people freaking out and wanting a lock down for less than 2k dead is completely fucking ridiculous.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/stat ... fornia.htm

[kalm]

Yes. Not taking into account factors like duration of disease, bounce backs, and preventative numbers that have skewed the death rate down.



I at least can still admit you may be right and it’s all an over-reaction and let’s eat, grandma.

You...on the other hand think yo already think you know the answers because you’ve looked at all the data.

Except when you compare Chinese Flu deaths in CA to other things, it gets even more laughable, here are the top 10 in 2017 per the CDC:

CA Leading Causes of Death, 2017 Deaths
1. Heart Disease 62,797
2. Cancer 59,516
3. Stroke 16,355
4. Alzheimer’s Disease 16,238
5. Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases 13,881
6. Accidents 13,840
7. Diabetes 9,595
8. Influenza/Pneumonia 6,340
9. Hypertension 5,596
10. Chronic Liver Disease/Cirrhosis 5,325

Tack on another 133k abortion deaths in 2017 and the idea of people freaking out and wanting a lock down for less than 2k dead is completely fucking ridiculous.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/stat ... fornia.htm

You do realize that part of that is California being ahead of the game with social distancing/stay at home right? You should be happy with your state. Us in WA are the same with relaxing restrictions this week.

New Zealand has absolutely kicked it’s ass so far.

That gets us back to normal sooner.

[mainejeff]

It's all a hoax says MAGA!

[grizzaholic]

You do realize that part of that is California being ahead of the game

With that statement you lost me.

[BDKJMU]

This is going to be seen as way worse than the seasonal flu. More on that after the death COUNT for this over about 2 months exceeds the CDC deaths point ESTIMATE for the worst seasonal flu mortality in at least 40 years (the 2017-2018 flu season) for an entire flu season. That'll probably happen before this weekend.

Oh yeah: And that will have happened even though there are a bunch of extreme measures in place that are never in place to try to stem the impact of seasonal influenza.

The idea that this is within the realm of the normal seasonal flu is becoming more and more untenable.

Wrong. 2017-2018 FLU according to the CDC killed 79k+


So far the Chinese Virus, as of today according to the CDC, has killed 55,208.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html