Coronavirus COVID-19

[GannonFan]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:

In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

You and Gil are on this weird Quixotic quest to prove at all costs that the mortality rate of Covid is greater than anything we've seen. Why so adamant? We've been counting flu deaths like we have for decades and it's seemed to work pretty well. What else do you attribute the flu season spike in deaths to other than the flu - shorter daylight? Stop trying to make Covid more than it is, because it's pretty bad the way that it is - a tremendously infectious flu that we don't have Tamiflu or a vaccine for at the current moment - that's pretty bad. Not sure the point in artificially trying to make it worse.

[kalm]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:



So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

You and Gil are on this weird Quixotic quest to prove at all costs that the mortality rate of Covid is greater than anything we've seen. Why so adamant? We've been counting flu deaths like we have for decades and it's seemed to work pretty well. What else do you attribute the flu season spike in deaths to other than the flu - shorter daylight? Stop trying to make Covid more than it is, because it's pretty bad the way that it is - a tremendously infectious flu that we don't have Tamiflu or a vaccine for at the current moment - that's pretty bad. Not sure the point in artificially trying to make it worse.

You were close to answering your own question here. Throw in a couple of months of lock down which doesn’t happen with the flu plus a much greater infection rate and you might see the difference.

Covid appears to be the Walmart of viruses vs. say a SARS. It’s low margins (death rate) but high volume (rate of infection). Walmart became the world’s # retailer.

[UNI88]

COVID-19 is worse (more contagious and deadly) than the flu.

COVID-19 is not as bad as the Plague or even the Spanish Flu.

Outside of NYC, the US collectively has been relatively successful at limiting the damage that COVID-19 might have done. This is especially true compared to Italy.

We shouldn't forget the sh!t that went down in Italy when crafting our response(s).

We can carefully open things back up so we can get the economy back on track and get people off of unemployment.

We shouldn't open things completely back up because we don't want to kickstart a massive second wave.

We need to find the balance of how much we can open up relatively safely. There will be some risk regardless and business owners will be reluctant to open up because they don't want the liability.

Large scale gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc.) would be extremely foolish in the short-term.

There will likely be a second and even third wave regardless of what we do. It's a question of timing and preparation.

[Gil Dobie]

COVID-19 is worse (more contagious and deadly) than the flu.

COVID-19 is not as bad as the Plague or even the Spanish Flu.

Outside of NYC, the US collectively has been relatively successful at limiting the damage that COVID-19 might have done. This is especially true compared to Italy.

We shouldn't forget the sh!t that went down in Italy when crafting our response(s).

We can carefully open things back up so we can get the economy back on track and get people off of unemployment.

We shouldn't open things completely back up because we don't want to kickstart a massive second wave.

We need to find the balance of how much we can open up relatively safely. There will be some risk regardless and business owners will be reluctant to open up because they don't want the liability.

Large scale gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc.) would be extremely foolish in the short-term.

There will likely be a second and even third wave regardless of what we do. It's a question of timing and preparation.[/list]

Watched Real Sports this week. The talked about game zero in Italy, the soccer match that started the big spread. Amazing how 1 event can lead to so many cases. It was also mentioned that 1 nights worth of professional sports could possibly lead to over 800,000 cases and 825 deaths. Pro sports post pandemic will probably be different.

[Gil Dobie]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:



So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

You and Gil are on this weird Quixotic quest to prove at all costs that the mortality rate of Covid is greater than anything we've seen. Why so adamant? We've been counting flu deaths like we have for decades and it's seemed to work pretty well. What else do you attribute the flu season spike in deaths to other than the flu - shorter daylight? Stop trying to make Covid more than it is, because it's pretty bad the way that it is - a tremendously infectious flu that we don't have Tamiflu or a vaccine for at the current moment - that's pretty bad. Not sure the point in artificially trying to make it worse.

Just saying it's not the flu.

[GannonFan]

Here is a good discussion of the problem with comparing estimates of flu deaths to counts of COVID-19 deaths that my daughter called my attention to:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/ob ... _IPObORbQc

A key quote:



So if we want to compare apples to apples, we would need to compare the somewhere around 60,000 counted COVID-19 deaths to this point to the 15,620 counted flu deaths actually counted during the past six flu seasons.

I would qualify that some by saying I think COVID-19 deaths are more likely to be recognized because of the nature of the situation. But, still, when people compare number of flu deaths to number of COVID-19 deaths they are normally comparing an estimate that accounts for under-reporting to a hard count.

I linked that article a page or two ago. Good luck with anyone replying to it.

It’s all quite interesting. People cite the deaths due to economic depression but never mention the lives saved by lower traffic fatalities, dropping murder rates, etc. I’m not saying they equalize but they’re rarely mentioned in the economic disaster porn either.

Gil and JSO...maybe the two most rational posters on the CS pandemic threads right now.

You'd think that about traffic deaths, what with less people driving, but I don't know how much driving you've been doing the past two months but it's almost Mad Max/Roadwarrior out there in some places, especially the more you get outside of the 8AM-5PM window when there's even less people on the road. People are driving at any speed they want, traffic rules are flouted more than normal. Crazy end of times stuff out there.

Link isn't a great one, but CBS News was reporting several states have seen a rise in traffic fatalities - might be fewer accidents, but they're happening at higher speeds now.

From CBS News: UNDATED (CBS) – Highways and byways air a lot quieter these days due to people working from home or not working. But that doesn’t mean they’re any safer. In fact, according to the latest statistics, several states air recording increases in traffic fatality rates. Officials blame speed. The lure of the open road has more drivers putting the pedal to the metal. So when there is an accident, it’s more likely to be fatal. The biggest speed increases have occurred in the nation’s freeway capital, Los Angeles, where the average speed during the evening rush hour has risen from 39 to 61 miles per hour.

https://www.wkok.com/567768-2/

[kalm]

COVID-19 is worse (more contagious and deadly) than the flu.

COVID-19 is not as bad as the Plague or even the Spanish Flu.

Outside of NYC, the US collectively has been relatively successful at limiting the damage that COVID-19 might have done. This is especially true compared to Italy.

We shouldn't forget the sh!t that went down in Italy when crafting our response(s).

We can carefully open things back up so we can get the economy back on track and get people off of unemployment.

We shouldn't open things completely back up because we don't want to kickstart a massive second wave.

We need to find the balance of how much we can open up relatively safely. There will be some risk regardless and business owners will be reluctant to open up because they don't want the liability.

Large scale gatherings (sporting events, concerts, etc.) would be extremely foolish in the short-term.

There will likely be a second and even third wave regardless of what we do. It's a question of timing and preparation.

All of this.

[kalm]

I linked that article a page or two ago. Good luck with anyone replying to it.

It’s all quite interesting. People cite the deaths due to economic depression but never mention the lives saved by lower traffic fatalities, dropping murder rates, etc. I’m not saying they equalize but they’re rarely mentioned in the economic disaster porn either.

Gil and JSO...maybe the two most rational posters on the CS pandemic threads right now.

You'd think that about traffic deaths, what with less people driving, but I don't know how much driving you've been doing the past two months but it's almost Mad Max/Roadwarrior out there in some places, especially the more you get outside of the 8AM-5PM window when there's even less people on the road. People are driving at any speed they want, traffic rules are flouted more than normal. Crazy end of times stuff out there.

Link isn't a great one, but CBS News was reporting several states have seen a rise in traffic fatalities - might be fewer accidents, but they're happening at higher speeds now.

From CBS News: UNDATED (CBS) – Highways and byways air a lot quieter these days due to people working from home or not working. But that doesn’t mean they’re any safer. In fact, according to the latest statistics, several states air recording increases in traffic fatality rates. Officials blame speed. The lure of the open road has more drivers putting the pedal to the metal. So when there is an accident, it’s more likely to be fatal. The biggest speed increases have occurred in the nation’s freeway capital, Los Angeles, where the average speed during the evening rush hour has risen from 39 to 61 miles per hour.

https://www.wkok.com/567768-2/

EC(b) asshole driving is a red herring.

The tractor sprayer I had to pull over and make room for along my dirt road to the store was going the same speed it always does.

[CAA Flagship]

How accurate is the US coronavirus death count? Some experts say it's off by 'tens of thousands'

The novel coronavirus has already claimed the lives of more than 61,000 Americans. But experts fear that number could be far higher at this point in the outbreak -- perhaps by tens of thousands -- once the pandemic subsides enough for officials to go back and make a true reckoning of the dead.

Experts are urging leaders to take measures right now to preserve data and medical specimens so that science has the chance to determine the precise number of people who succumbed during one of the most severe global pandemics in memory.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/accurate- ... d=70385359

[93henfan]

You'd think that about traffic deaths, what with less people driving, but I don't know how much driving you've been doing the past two months but it's almost Mad Max/Roadwarrior out there in some places, especially the more you get outside of the 8AM-5PM window when there's even less people on the road. People are driving at any speed they want, traffic rules are flouted more than normal. Crazy end of times stuff out there.

Link isn't a great one, but CBS News was reporting several states have seen a rise in traffic fatalities - might be fewer accidents, but they're happening at higher speeds now.



https://www.wkok.com/567768-2/

EC(b) asshole driving is a red herring.

The tractor sprayer I had to pull over and make room for along my dirt road to the store was going the same speed it always does.

GF is right though. DSP essentially stopped doing speed enforcement. During my treatment, I was making it from Slower DE to Philly and back, 184 miles, in 2 hours, 21 mins. I averaged over 80 mph with stops and the city driving in Philly once I got off I-95. Cruising on Delaware Rt 1 at 100mph+ with no issues. Don't worry; I'm a pro. I've been to racing school.

[89Hen]

There are more outlets. There are also nearly 3x as many folks in the US. Boiling this down to one utility bill is folly. I view credit reports all day. One $30 collection from a cable or phone company can tank your score.

If you're getting hit with a $30 collection, your score is already probably shit to begin with.

I've seen tons of folks who have stellar credit except for one collection. Usually medical or utility. Can be a 50+ point drop in your score. Problem is, if you simply pay it off, the damage is done. The only way to fix it is get the creditor to remove it, which isn't easy.

[89Hen]

Cruising on Delaware Rt 1 at 100mph+ with no issues. Don't worry; I'm a pro. I've been to racing school.

I used to routinely push 90-95 on 301 between Middletown and the Bay Bridge when I first moved to the DC area and would go home or to UD.

[kalm]

Cruising on Delaware Rt 1 at 100mph+ with no issues. Don't worry; I'm a pro. I've been to racing school.

I used to routinely push 90-95 on 301 between Middletown and the Bay Bridge when I first moved to the DC area and would go home or to UD.

I rest my case.

[89Hen]

Link isn't a great one, but CBS News was reporting several states have seen a rise in traffic fatalities - might be fewer accidents, but they're happening at higher speeds now.

FWIW, I get traffic update texts on my phone. There have been far fewer texts total. BUT the DC beltway has been completely closed in one direction MANY more times in the last month. It's a rare accident that completely closes the beltway. It happened TWICE yesterday just a couple miles from my house. They were trucks yesterday, but it's been a slew of high speed crashes.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Md. (ABC7) — A second trailer-tractor crash occurred at the I-270 spur on the Capital Beltway Thursday afternoon, in the same area where police had just cleared the scene of another crash involving a jackknifed truck.

The latest crash happened on the southbound lane of I-495 at the I-270 overpass in Montgomery County. Police say all lanes are currently blocked.

Four tractor-trailer crashes on the Beltway are being investigated Thursday afternoon, and Maryland State Police believe three of the four crashes were caused by what they call "speed too great for the conditions."

https://wjla.com/news/local/tractor-tra ... king-lanes

[UNI88]

I used to routinely push 90-95 on 301 between Middletown and the Bay Bridge when I first moved to the DC area and would go home or to UD.

I rest my case.

Am I an EC(b) asshole driver?

I used to go 100+mph on I-94 heading home from work (and I was being passed while doing it).

[kalm]

I rest my case.

Am I an EC(b) asshole driver?

I used to go 100+mph on I-94 heading home from work (and I was being passed while doing it).

Did you lay on the horn and flip people off as you were passing them?

You’re Northwestern asshole driver.

[kalm]

Link isn't a great one, but CBS News was reporting several states have seen a rise in traffic fatalities - might be fewer accidents, but they're happening at higher speeds now.

FWIW, I get traffic update texts on my phone. There have been far fewer texts total. BUT the DC beltway has been completely closed in one direction MANY more times in the last month. It's a rare accident that completely closes the beltway. It happened TWICE yesterday just a couple miles from my house. They were trucks yesterday, but it's been a slew of high speed crashes.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Md. (ABC7) — A second trailer-tractor crash occurred at the I-270 spur on the Capital Beltway Thursday afternoon, in the same area where police had just cleared the scene of another crash involving a jackknifed truck.

The latest crash happened on the southbound lane of I-495 at the I-270 overpass in Montgomery County. Police say all lanes are currently blocked.

Four tractor-trailer crashes on the Beltway are being investigated Thursday afternoon, and Maryland State Police believe three of the four crashes were caused by what they call "speed too great for the conditions."

https://wjla.com/news/local/tractor-tra ... king-lanes

The covid protest/beach/church crowds who don’t earn Darwin awards will be assisted by the selfish drivers.

[∞∞∞]

I rather enjoyed this opinion piece and comments:

https://www.theroot.com/for-white-peopl ... 1843192766

[UNI88]

Am I an EC(b) asshole driver?

I used to go 100+mph on I-94 heading home from work (and I was being passed while doing it).

Did you lay on the horn and flip people off as you were passing them?

You’re Northwestern asshole driver.

Of course not, Chicagoans use the horn to signal lane changes.

[BDKJMU]

What in the actual fuck?

Maryland has deployed members of its National Guard and state police to supervise 500,000 coronavirus testing kits currently being held at an "undisclosed location," Governor Larry Hogan told The Washington Post on Thursday.


During a teleconference interview with Washington Post Live, Hogan explained that the decision to impose heightened surveillance procedures followed reports of federal officials seizing supplies delivered to other states. Maryland recently purchased the test kits from South Korea after requests for assistance from the United States federal government went unanswered and domestic suppliers could not provide the aid

https://www.newsweek.com/national-guard ... 1588284513

That doesn't makes sense. According to Worldometer the US has outested S Korea by more than 10x, and almost 2x per capita.
S Koreans: tested 623k out of a population of 52 million.
US has tested 6.5 million out of a population of 329 million.

If the S Koreans had a 1/2 million tests to sell, then you'd think they'd have at least a couple million extra tests, and would have tested a couple million of their people, not 623k..

[∞∞∞]

South Korea didn't need to do as much testing because their government/population took the pandemic seriously, and were able to quickly and efficiently achieve containment. The test kits they're sending out are probably preparatory items they never had to use.

[93henfan]

I rest my case.

Am I an EC(b) asshole driver?

I used to go 100+mph on I-94 heading home from work (and I was being passed while doing it).

I absolutely loved I-94 west of Fargo. Wide open, straight as an arrow, and empty. Decided to bury the speedo at 160mph for a few miles. Glad I had fairly new tires. Wouldn't want to do that on shaky rubber.

[CAA Flagship]

Am I an EC(b) asshole driver?

I used to go 100+mph on I-94 heading home from work (and I was being passed while doing it).

I absolutely loved I-94 west of Fargo. Wide open, straight as an arrow, and empty. Decided to bury the speedo at 160mph for a few miles. Glad I had fairly new tires. Wouldn't want to do that on shaky rubber.

Wasteland?

[93henfan]

I absolutely loved I-94 west of Fargo. Wide open, straight as an arrow, and empty. Decided to bury the speedo at 160mph for a few miles. Glad I had fairly new tires. Wouldn't want to do that on shaky rubber.

Wasteland?

Badland.

[CAA Flagship]

Wasteland?

Badland.

You gotta live it everyday.