Coronavirus COVID-19

[UNI88]

How does the US look if you take out NYC (probably the majority of the deaths in New York and New Jersey)?

I think that if you deleted the data for NYC the total number would obviously decrease but we would see a distinct upward trend right now instead of a relatively flat situation. The reason is that deaths reported by NYC peaked on April 7 and have been declining. Here is a graph from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page:



It is mixing data sources but this is the way it works: If you look at the April 7 NYC peak it's 570. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,278. So "rest of country" was 1708. On April 29 (the last date represented on the graph) the NYC count was 56. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,390. So "rest of country" was 2,334.

What's has been happening, in general, is that as NYC has been going down "rest of country" has been going up.

If you were to delete New York city what you would see is a graph with a clearly increasing trend instead of a national graph where things are relatively flat.

And how does that compare to what the models from say 4-6 weeks ago were showing we would be experiencing?

[Ivytalk]

I think that if you deleted the data for NYC the total number would obviously decrease but we would see a distinct upward trend right now instead of a relatively flat situation. The reason is that deaths reported by NYC peaked on April 7 and have been declining. Here is a graph from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page:



It is mixing data sources but this is the way it works: If you look at the April 7 NYC peak it's 570. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,278. So "rest of country" was 1708. On April 29 (the last date represented on the graph) the NYC count was 56. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,390. So "rest of country" was 2,334.

What's has been happening, in general, is that as NYC has been going down "rest of country" has been going up.

If you were to delete New York city what you would see is a graph with a clearly increasing trend instead of a national graph where things are relatively flat.

And how does that compare to what the models from say 4-6 weeks ago were showing we would be experiencing?

Damn you, 88! You asked JSO for data!

[UNI88]

And how does that compare to what the models from say 4-6 weeks ago were showing we would be experiencing?

Damn you, 88! You asked JSO for data!

[CID1990]

Not a lot most of us don’t already know here:


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coron ... 96ad17da60

The real eyebrow raiser is the leak itself. Probably in response to influential people like Bill Gates tsk tsking us little people over criticisms of China


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[93henfan]

Or how does it look if you chop off Italy on April 3rd, which is about where we are relative to them then?

89, just bumping your last post in the thread. This could impact some of your summer plans. Not sure how often you actually go down to the water, but this is really going to hurt some of the businesses, losing Memorial Day weekend and fireworks on July 4.

BETHANY BEACH, Del.- Bethany Beach's boardwalk and beach will stay closed for at least the next month.

During Thursday's Town Council meeting, council members voted to keep the beach and boardwalk closed until May 31 or whenever Gov. John Carney moves the state into the final phase of CDC reopening guidelines--whichever comes first.

Bethany has also canceled all special events until July 15, including the 4th of July parade and fireworks. Rehoboth Beach implemented similar measures the week prior.

http://www.wboc.com/story/42077546/beth ... oYMQ8MlOVA

[kalm]

Not a lot most of us don’t already know here:


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coron ... 96ad17da60

The real eyebrow raiser is the leak itself. Probably in response to influential people like Bill Gates tsk tsking us little people over criticisms of China


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Saber rattling?

[JohnStOnge]

I think that if you deleted the data for NYC the total number would obviously decrease but we would see a distinct upward trend right now instead of a relatively flat situation. The reason is that deaths reported by NYC peaked on April 7 and have been declining. Here is a graph from https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page:



It is mixing data sources but this is the way it works: If you look at the April 7 NYC peak it's 570. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,278. So "rest of country" was 1708. On April 29 (the last date represented on the graph) the NYC count was 56. The Worldometers national total on that date was 2,390. So "rest of country" was 2,334.

What's has been happening, in general, is that as NYC has been going down "rest of country" has been going up.

If you were to delete New York city what you would see is a graph with a clearly increasing trend instead of a national graph where things are relatively flat.

And how does that compare to what the models from say 4-6 weeks ago were showing we would be experiencing?

The only model I have been following closely is the IHME model. I don't think it projected for New York City. I can tell you what it was projected for New York State or for the country 4 to 6 weeks ago. What exactly are you looking for?

I can tell you ahead of time that it's very likely that the national death count total as of today is within the bounds of uncertainty predicted by the IHME model 4 to 6 weeks ago. It's quite possible that the New York State death count total is not within the bounds predicted 4 to 6 weeks ago for that State. If it is not, it is probably above the upper limit of the uncertainty interval.

[Ivytalk]

Not a lot most of us don’t already know here:


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coron ... 96ad17da60

The real eyebrow raiser is the leak itself. Probably in response to influential people like Bill Gates tsk tsking us little people over criticisms of China


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Well, even if we take the Red Chinese to the World Court for negligence, we know from experience with the South China Sea Arbitration that the PRC is an international scofflaw.

[AZGrizFan]

And how does that compare to what the models from say 4-6 weeks ago were showing we would be experiencing?

The only model I have been following closely is the IHME model. I don't think it projected for New York City. I can tell you what it was projected for New York State or for the country 4 to 6 weeks ago. What exactly are you looking for?

I can tell you ahead of time that it's very likely that the national death count total as of today is within the bounds of uncertainty predicted by the IHME model 4 to 6 weeks ago. It's quite possible that the New York State death count total is not within the bounds predicted 4 to 6 weeks ago for that State. If it is not, it is probably above the upper limit of the uncertainty interval.

When your “range of uncertainty” is 80-90,000 wide, then yeah, I could have hit that too.

[CID1990]

Not a lot most of us don’t already know here:


https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coron ... 96ad17da60

The real eyebrow raiser is the leak itself. Probably in response to influential people like Bill Gates tsk tsking us little people over criticisms of China


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Saber rattling?

Where do you get that?


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[kalm]

Saber rattling?

Where do you get that?


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I’m asking you if you think it’s a legit cause for concern or finger pointing that won’t go anywhere. I respect your opinions on these matters.

[CID1990]

Where do you get that?


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I’m asking you if you think it’s a legit cause for concern or finger pointing that won’t go anywhere. I respect your opinions on these matters.

Whether China is a legit cause for concern? In what venue are they not?

China is in the middle of a global propaganda campaign to pin this pandemic on the US. We made some early mistakes but we did not give this virus the legs it needed by covering it up in the first several weeks when it could have been contained- AND they co-opted a UN organization tasked with pandemic prevention into going along with their party line.

So yeah, it matters - China will preserve the power of its single party dictatorship at the expense of its own citizens and neighbors... that is already known. This should be illustrative that they will also do it at the expense of world health.

Way too many people who should know better are minimizing China. My previous comment about Bill Gates is in reference to him saying we should visit this issue later. He and his fellow travelers are dead wrong, and our own and our allies’ ICs are rightly pushing back against their nonsense.

China is a menace on all fronts. This should be a wake up call for the entire world


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[Gil Dobie]

Another Idiot

NBC Link

Turnage's Facebook post, now removed, said that "the World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature."

He added, "then we have our other sectors such as our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues. This would run rampant through them and yes i am sorry but this would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used."

[kalm]

I’m asking you if you think it’s a legit cause for concern or finger pointing that won’t go anywhere. I respect your opinions on these matters.

Whether China is a legit cause for concern? In what venue are they not?

China is in the middle of a global propaganda campaign to pin this pandemic on the US. We made some early mistakes but we did not give this virus the legs it needed by covering it up in the first several weeks when it could have been contained- AND they co-opted a UN organization tasked with pandemic prevention into going along with their party line.

So yeah, it matters - China will preserve the power of its single party dictatorship at the expense of its own citizens and neighbors... that is already known. This should be illustrative that they will also do it at the expense of world health.

Way too many people who should know better are minimizing China. My previous comment about Bill Gates is in reference to him saying we should visit this issue later. He and his fellow travelers are dead wrong, and our own and our allies’ ICs are rightly pushing back against their nonsense.

China is a menace on all fronts. This should be a wake up call for the entire world


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I was thinking along the lines of escalation. Agreed they are already a concern.

[UNI88]

Another Idiot

NBC Link

Turnage's Facebook post, now removed, said that "the World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature."

He added, "then we have our other sectors such as our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues. This would run rampant through them and yes i am sorry but this would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used."

I don't support the approach but what he's saying is callous, not idiotic.

[Gil Dobie]

Another Idiot

NBC Link

Turnage's Facebook post, now removed, said that "the World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature."

He added, "then we have our other sectors such as our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues. This would run rampant through them and yes i am sorry but this would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used."

I don't support the approach but what he's saying is callous, not idiotic.

Webster define idiot as a foolish or stupid person. Was he not foolish?

[kalm]

I don't support the approach but what he's saying is callous, not idiotic.

Webster define idiot as a foolish or stupid person. Was he not foolish?

[UNI88]

I don't support the approach but what he's saying is callous, not idiotic.

Webster defines idiot as a foolish or stupid person. Was he not foolish?

No, he was callous, not foolish. Are you saying there is never a good time to thin a herd? I'm sure there are genetic, environmental, etc. (i.e. scientific) arguments to be made in favor of thinning the herd. Are you opposed to science?

I think thinning the herd is taking the easy way out and we're better than that.

[kalm]

Webster defines idiot as a foolish or stupid person. Was he not foolish?

No, he was callous, not foolish. Are you saying there is never a good time to thin a herd? I'm sure there are genetic, environmental, etc. (i.e. scientific) arguments to be made in favor of thinning the herd. Are you opposed to science?

I think thinning the herd is taking the easy way out and we're better than that.

Hey Dr. Zoology, humans are not a herd animal.

(Although I do get where you’re going. There are many Darwin Award candidates who will be provide effective culling via churches, beaches, and nail salons).

[AshevilleApp]

Another Idiot

NBC Link

Turnage's Facebook post, now removed, said that "the World has been introduced to a new phrase Herd Immunity which is a good one. In my opinion we need to adapt a Herd Mentality. A herd gathers it ranks, it allows the sick, the old, the injured to meet its natural course in nature."

He added, "then we have our other sectors such as our homeless and other people who just defile themselves by either choice or mental issues. This would run rampant through them and yes i am sorry but this would fix what is a significant burden on our Society and resources that can be used."

I don't support the approach but what he's saying is callous, not idiotic.

Maybe he didn't want to be on the Planning Board any more, but didn't want to seem like a quitter. Have you ever been to one of those meetings?

[Gil Dobie]

Webster defines idiot as a foolish or stupid person. Was he not foolish?

No, he was callous, not foolish. Are you saying there is never a good time to thin a herd? I'm sure there are genetic, environmental, etc. (i.e. scientific) arguments to be made in favor of thinning the herd. Are you opposed to science?

I think thinning the herd is taking the easy way out and we're better than that.

If you are working for the public, you are foolish to say something like that. JFC 89hen steal your Username?

[UNI88]

No, he was callous, not foolish. Are you saying there is never a good time to thin a herd? I'm sure there are genetic, environmental, etc. (i.e. scientific) arguments to be made in favor of thinning the herd. Are you opposed to science?

I think thinning the herd is taking the easy way out and we're better than that.

If you are working for the public, you are foolish to say something like that. JFC 89hen steal your Username?

Was he working for the public or was it an elected or appointed but volunteer position?

So the people who chased him off of the board are anti-science? They probably turn around and rage against conservatives for being anti-science when it comes to climate change. Yet they pick and choose when they want to follow science.

Gil, I'm playing devil's advocate. Don't get so worked up over message board chatter.

[SDHornet]

CA Gov Newsom tried to lock down the SoCal beaches...

...as expected Orange County Sheriff said they aren't going to enforce his order...

I think this lock down nonsense will finally jump the shark here in CA. The idea that Newsom thought folks in SoCal would not hit the beach in the summer time just shows how disconnected he is from this. Counties in rural north are also saying they aren't going to follow the extended lock down orders.

Friend said they went for a walk on the beach yesterday, by their RV park. They were told to leave, beach wasn't opening until Monday.

Doesn't look that closed:

[SDHornet]

I’m asking you if you think it’s a legit cause for concern or finger pointing that won’t go anywhere. I respect your opinions on these matters.

Whether China is a legit cause for concern? In what venue are they not?

China is in the middle of a global propaganda campaign to pin this pandemic on the US. We made some early mistakes but we did not give this virus the legs it needed by covering it up in the first several weeks when it could have been contained- AND they co-opted a UN organization tasked with pandemic prevention into going along with their party line.

So yeah, it matters - China will preserve the power of its single party dictatorship at the expense of its own citizens and neighbors... that is already known. This should be illustrative that they will also do it at the expense of world health.

Way too many people who should know better are minimizing China. My previous comment about Bill Gates is in reference to him saying we should visit this issue later. He and his fellow travelers are dead wrong, and our own and our allies’ ICs are rightly pushing back against their nonsense.

China is a menace on all fronts. This should be a wake up call for the entire world


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One of the few positives of this Chinese Flu pandemic is that it exposed all the people carrying Communist China's water. Those all in for China aren't even trying to hide it at this point.


Speaking of those peddling propaganda, this one reminds me of those awful pamphlets the japs tried to use on the US in WWII.

[Gil Dobie]

If you are working for the public, you are foolish to say something like that. JFC 89hen steal your Username?

Was he working for the public or was it an elected or appointed but volunteer position?

So the people who chased him off of the board are anti-science? They probably turn around and rage against conservatives for being anti-science when it comes to climate change. Yet they pick and choose when they want to follow science.

Gil, I'm playing devil's advocate. Don't get so worked up over message board chatter.

Sorry, didn't have much time earlier today to respond. Busy day on ebay, Michael Jordan is blowing up the basketball card market. Have to wait until tomorrow to list more items, as I've got all I can carry into the post office tomorrow. I would have them pickup, but I don't want to leave expensive stuff on my front porch.