Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by DSUrocks07 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
DSUrocks07 wrote:
Which will be the greatest irony of them all, because these new age liberal progressives expose themselves as being "educated free thinkers", and at the end of the day they're just going to prove to be the lemmings they always have been by voting for HRC.

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What would you have them do? Vote for Trump? You're a liberal and you're going to vote for Trump?
I'd like to think they would stick to their values and vote for a similar candidate instead of voting for Hillary because "Bernie told us too". If it was about "just beating Trump" then he should have dropped out once it was clear he was going to garner the GOP nod.

But I have a feeling that It would have been the same for whomever the GOP did send out. I supported Trump in the primaries and I plan on continue to support him through the general but since I'm in Delaware and it's likely to go to HRC anyways I plan on voting for Johnson in November. Unless the polls here are within the margin of error by the end of October, then it will be a vote for Trump.

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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

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"Clinton's State Dept. calendar missing scores of entries

WASHINGTON
Television cameras rolled when Hillary Clinton appeared on the central balcony of the New York Stock Exchange to ring the opening bell — just minutes after she attended a private breakfast in September 2009 with influential Wall Street and business leaders.

But the identities of her breakfast guests would be left off of her official State Department calendar — omissions that are among scores of names and events missing from Clinton's historical record of her daily activities as secretary of state, an Associated Press review found.

Now the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Clinton met that morning with a dozen chief executives, most of whose firms had lobbied the government and donated to her family's global charity, the Clinton Foundation. The event was closed to the press and merited only a brief mention in her official calendar, which omitted the names of all her guests — among them Blackstone Group Chairman Steven Schwarzman, PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi and then-New York Bank of Mellon CEO Robert Kelly.

The AP review of Clinton's calendar — her after-the-fact, official chronology of the events of her four-year term — identified at least 75 meetings with longtime political donors and loyalists, Clinton Foundation contributors and corporate and other outside interests that were either not recorded or listed with identifying details scrubbed. The AP found the omissions by comparing the 1,500-page document with separate planning schedules supplied to Clinton by aides in advance of each day's events. The names of at least 114 outsiders who met with Clinton were missing from her calendar, the records show.

The missing entries raise new questions about how Clinton and her inner circle handled government records documenting her State Department tenure — in this case, why the official chronology of her four-year term does not closely mirror other more detailed records of her daily meetings. At a time when Clinton's private email system is under scrutiny by an FBI criminal investigation, the calendar omissions reinforce concerns that she sought to eliminate the "risk of the personal being accessible" — as she wrote in an email exchange that she failed to turn over to the government but was subsequently uncovered elsewhere....

......The missing or heavily edited entries in her calendar included private dinners with political donors, policy sessions with groups of corporate leaders and "drop-bys" with old Clinton campaign hands.....

....Besides Schwarzman, Nooyi and Kelly, Clinton's other guests were Fabrizio Freda, CEO of the Estee Lauder Companies Inc.; Howard Schultz, CEO of Starbucks Corp.; Lewis Frankfort, chairman of Coach Inc.; Ellen Kullman, then-CEO of DuPont; David M. Cote, CEO of Honeywell International Inc.; James Tisch, president of Loews Corp.; John D. Wren, CEO of Omnicom Group; then-McGraw Hill Companies chairman Harold McGraw III; and James Taiclet, chairman of the American Tower Corp. Also attending was then-NYSE CEO Duncan Niederauer, who later accompanied Clinton when she rang the stock exchange bell......"
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politic ... rylink=cpy

So not only is Clinton beholden to Wall Street, she tries to obscure that fact.. :ohno:
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote:"Clinton's State Dept. calendar missing scores of entries

:
I saw a news report on this today. I wondered at the time why it's news. Now I see the written version and I wonder the same thing. As the article and the news report I saw today indicate no laws were violated and there are records of everything.

The reason they could write about info that wasn't on the calendar is because there are records of it.

You mean here CALENDAR missed some entries? THE HORROR!!!!
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:"Clinton's State Dept. calendar missing scores of entries

:
I saw a news report on this today. I wondered at the time why it's news. Now I see the written version and I wonder the same thing. As the article and the news report I saw today indicate no laws were violated and there are records of everything.

The reason they could write about info that wasn't on the calendar is because there are records of it.

You mean here CALENDAR missed some entries? THE HORROR!!!!
Yes there are records of it, but Clinton scrubbed the readily apparent, easy to find info. While she can't hide the fact, she will go to whatever lengths to obfuscate and minimize the the fact that she is beholden to Wall St.

"The AP found the omissions by comparing the 1,500-page document with separate planning schedules supplied to Clinton by aides in advance of each day's events. The names of at least 114 outsiders who met with Clinton were missing from her calendar, the records show."
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
I saw a news report on this today. I wondered at the time why it's news. Now I see the written version and I wonder the same thing. As the article and the news report I saw today indicate no laws were violated and there are records of everything.

The reason they could write about info that wasn't on the calendar is because there are records of it.

You mean here CALENDAR missed some entries? THE HORROR!!!!
Yes there are records of it, but Clinton scrubbed the readily apparent, easy to find info. While she can't hide the fact, she will go to whatever lengths to obfuscate and minimize the the fact that she is beholden to Wall St.

"The AP found the omissions by comparing the 1,500-page document with separate planning schedules supplied to Clinton by aides in advance of each day's events. The names of at least 114 outsiders who met with Clinton were missing from her calendar, the records show."
This particular thing is a whole bunch of nothing.
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Re: RE: Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by DSUrocks07 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
BDKJMU wrote:
Yes there are records of it, but Clinton scrubbed the readily apparent, easy to find info. While she can't hide the fact, she will go to whatever lengths to obfuscate and minimize the the fact that she is beholden to Wall St.

"The AP found the omissions by comparing the 1,500-page document with separate planning schedules supplied to Clinton by aides in advance of each day's events. The names of at least 114 outsiders who met with Clinton were missing from her calendar, the records show."
This particular thing is a whole bunch of nothing.
Of course it is, because it damages your rhetoric that Hillary is miles above the type of person Trump is. :coffee:

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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

Noticed something interesting about the Real Clear Politics polling report on Clinton and Trump (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html) vs. the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/). There is an association such that Clinton tends to do better in polls rated more highly by FiveThirtyEight. The polls up at real clear politics as I write this, for instance, are:

Image

Here's what it looks like when you rank the results by FiveThirtyEight poll grades from highest grade to lowest:

Image

I think you can readily see the association; with the higher Clinton Margins shifted towards the top of the array. Clinton's overall average edge is 6.7. But among the A+ rated polls it's 10.7. I tested the association with Spearman's rank correlation and got 0.819. That's an association "significant" at better than the 99% confidence level. It's not chance. It also isn't just right now. I've been noticing this phenomenon for some time now.

Can't really make much of it now more than to say there's no doubt that Clinton's margin has tended to be larger in polls rated more highly by FiveThirtyEight. But I couldn't help noticing the pattern in the numbers.

Will it persist? I don't know. I waited to see if it would persist for a while before I posted on it and it did. I'd say I've been watching it for a little over a month. But I guess things could change at any time.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:Noticed something interesting about the Real Clear Politics polling report on Clinton and Trump (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html) vs. the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/). There is an association such that Clinton tends to do better in polls rated more highly by FiveThirtyEight. The polls up at real clear politics as I write this, for instance, are:

Image

Here's what it looks like when you rank the results by FiveThirtyEight poll grades from highest grade to lowest:

Image

I think you can readily see the association; with the higher Clinton Margins shifted towards the top of the array. Clinton's overall average edge is 6.7. But among the A+ rated polls it's 10.7. I tested the association with Spearman's rank correlation and got 0.819. That's an association "significant" at better than the 99% confidence level. It's not chance. It also isn't just right now. I've been noticing this phenomenon for some time now.

Can't really make much of it now more than to say there's no doubt that Clinton's margin has tended to be larger in polls rated more highly by FiveThirtyEight. But I couldn't help noticing the pattern in the numbers.

Will it persist? I don't know. I waited to see if it would persist for a while before I posted on it and it did. I'd say I've been watching it for a little over a month. But I guess things could change at any time.
Silver was great in the last two elections.

How did 538's top rated polls do in predicting Trump?
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

How did 538's top rated polls do in predicting Trump?
I might check on that, though it'll probably take some time. I could look at how the five polls 538 has rated A+ did. But my expectation is that they did pretty well. That's because polls in general...highly rated or not...did well in predicting Trump. I posted something on that earlier in another thread. If you'd have never had an actual vote and just gone on what polls within a week or so prior to each primary predicted Trump would be right where he is now.

The biggest poll problems were on the Democrat side with Sanders. The two States I can think of where they were REALLY way off are Michigan and Oregon. But even then they were right on who was going to win most of the time and if you'd have just gone with what the polls said rather than the actual votes we'd be in the same place right now.

Remember the thing I said about sampling error. The "margin of error" is a 95% confidence interval for the estimate for one candidate. It is not a "margin of error" for the difference between the two. That margin of error is larger. Take the simplest case in which there are no undecided and candidate A out polls candidate B by 52 - 48. Say the poll has a 3 point "margin of error." That means it's saying we're 95% confident that A has from 49 - 55 percent. However, if it's 49 that means B has 51 and the margin for A is -2. If it's 55 that means B has 45 and the margin for A is 10. So the range of error for the A - B difference is -2 through 10. 12 point range or +/- 6 points from the middle. Candidate A polled 4 points better but we're 95 percent confident the true margin is from 6 points less than that, -2, through 6 points more than that, +10.

So even though A has a 4 point lead that is bigger than the 3 point "margin of error" that does not mean we can be real confident that A is actually ahead. That 4 point lead is well within the +/- 6 point "margin of error" for the difference between the two.

Throw into the mix the fact that the math says you expect the actual results to be outside of the "margin of error" on about 1 in 20 occasions even if the samples are taken perfectly and the ONLY error is random sampling error.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

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JohnStOnge wrote:Just in case you're interested in reading a discussion of NAFTA's impacts on the US Labor Market that appears to be balanced:
Wide disagreement persists on how and to what degree NAFTA accounts for changes in net employment from adjustments in the labor market. Supporters of NAFTA, and many economists, see a positive impact on U.S. employment and note that new export-related jobs in the United States pay 15 to 20 percent more on average than those focused on domestic production. But side effects of the treaty should not be ignored. Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes that wages haven't kept pace with labor productivity and that income inequality in the United States has risen in recent years, in part due to pressures on the U.S. manufacturing base. To some extent, he says, trade deals have hastened the pace of these changes in that they have "reinforced the globalization of the American economy."

Opponents of NAFTA take a starker position. Thea M. Lee, the deputy chief of staff at the AFL-CIO, which opposes NAFTA and lobbies against other free-trade agreements unless they include provisions that raise labor and environmental standards, said that NAFTA forced "workers into more direct competition with each other, while assuring them fewer rights and protections." Public Citizen, the left-leaning Washington nonprofit consumer rights organization, said in a report that the "grand promises made by NAFTA's proponents remain unfulfilled" [PDF] twenty years after implementation and resulted in the loss of one million U.S. jobs by 2004.

But most economists say it is a stretch to blame these shifts on NAFTA. Manufacturing in the United States was under stress decades before the treaty, and job losses in that sector are viewed as part of a structural shift in the U.S. economy toward light manufacturing and high-end services. Alden says that broader economic trends affecting U.S. employment, such as China's economic rise, wouldn't be substantially altered by U.S. policy shifts toward NAFTA.
From http://www.cfr.org/trade/naftas-economic-impact/p15790

The take away is that it's not at all clear that American workers are worse off, on average and on balance, as a result of NAFTA and it may be that they are actually better off.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

Oh. So we don't need to make America great again?
America is great. It could be better and it's always good to try to improve things.

But Donald Trump would not make America better.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

Kudos to Elizabeth Warren for calling Trump out on how ridiculous that hat looks. It'd be great if she had a better voice. But, still, that IS a ridiculous looking hat. Just him wearing that hat ought to tell you he doesn't have the judgment it takes to be President.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9DqZvqqNLk[/youtube]
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

I had a epiphany today I was listening to Sean Hannity rail about the polls. He was dismissing polls that show HIllary way ahead based on the samples containing unusually low numbers of Republicans.

Then it hit me: It's quite possible that the reason the polls contain relatively few people saying they're Republican is that it's now become embarrassing to be a Republican.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:Kudos to Elizabeth Warren for calling Trump out on how ridiculous that hat looks. It'd be great if she had a better voice. But, still, that IS a ridiculous looking hat. Just him wearing that hat ought to tell you he doesn't have the judgment it takes to be President.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9DqZvqqNLk[/youtube]
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by kalm »

Ivytalk wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:Kudos to Elizabeth Warren for calling Trump out on how ridiculous that hat looks. It'd be great if she had a better voice. But, still, that IS a ridiculous looking hat. Just him wearing that hat ought to tell you he doesn't have the judgment it takes to be President.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9DqZvqqNLk[/youtube]
Is that all you got? Praising Fauxcahontas for a stupid bitch comment? Give it up, Bayou Boy. :ohno:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary Fucking Clinton. :thumbdown:

What little credibility Warren had left is going bye bye. :nod:

(I will add that while the Republican Party is a shit show, the Democratic Party ain't far behind, and will continue to lose support as well.)
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

kalm wrote:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary **** Clinton. :thumbdown:
Clinton got money for speeches. I've heard nothing about her stiffing other people to build her wealth. You can find plenty of that kind of stuff about Trump. Example:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/poli ... /85297274/
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by Ivytalk »

JohnStOnge wrote:I had a epiphany today I was listening to Sean Hannity rail about the polls. He was dismissing polls that show HIllary way ahead based on the samples containing unusually low numbers of Republicans.

Then it hit me: It's quite possible that the reason the polls contain relatively few people saying they're Republican is that it's now become embarrassing to be a Republican.
Anybody who has an epiphany listening to Sean Hannity on any subject should turn in his sanity card.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote:
kalm wrote:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary **** Clinton. :thumbdown:
Clinton got money for speeches. I've heard nothing about her stiffing other people to build her wealth.
I will admit to trolling you a bit regarding Trump and I actually feel some of replies to you have been a bit unfair, but you can't possible be as stupid as this reply, can you?

:suspicious: :ohno:
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by Ivytalk »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Is that all you got? Praising Fauxcahontas for a stupid bitch comment? Give it up, Bayou Boy. :ohno:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary **** Clinton. :thumbdown:

What little credibility Warren had left is going bye bye. :nod:

(I will add that while the Republican Party is a **** show, the Democratic Party ain't far behind, and will continue to lose support as well.)
This. Warren should have Klinton investigated for financial fraud. Instead, Liz is giving Hill a pass.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by SDHornet »

Heard on the radio that Trump has less than $2M in his campaign finance bank…and that the $40M loan he gave to his campaign was spent on mostly Trump owned properties/companies/product. Brilliant ploy by Trump, he’ll no doubt ask the GOP for funding once he officially has the nomination in hand, thereby infusing his brand with $40M. Brilliant. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

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http://thesmokinggun.com/documents/crim ... ack-723571
The broad spear phishing campaign targeting the e-mail accounts of Hillary Clinton campaign officials has yielded hackers a wide assortment of internal memos and other communications,
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by houndawg »

kalm wrote:
Ivytalk wrote: Is that all you got? Praising Fauxcahontas for a stupid bitch comment? Give it up, Bayou Boy. :ohno:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary **** Clinton. :thumbdown:

What little credibility Warren had left is going bye bye. :nod:

(I will add that while the Republican Party is a **** show, the Democratic Party ain't far behind, and will continue to lose support as well.)
I think long term this election hurts the donks most. Especially if the Bernie voters go with Stein and get her to the 15% threshold.

She's kind of hot too.
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by BDKJMU »

houndawg wrote:
kalm wrote:
You wanna talk goofy? Being a supposed champion of the little guy and against wealth inequality, calling Trump a money grabber while stumping for Hillary **** Clinton. :thumbdown:

What little credibility Warren had left is going bye bye. :nod:

(I will add that while the Republican Party is a **** show, the Democratic Party ain't far behind, and will continue to lose support as well.)
I think long term this election hurts the donks most. Especially if the Bernie voters go with Stein and get her to the 15% threshold.

She's kind of hot too.
:suspicious: :lol:
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote:
houndawg wrote:
I think long term this election hurts the donks most. Especially if the Bernie voters go with Stein and get her to the 15% threshold.

She's kind of hot too.
:suspicious: :lol:
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Re: Election 2016: Trump vs Clinton

Post by JohnStOnge »

kalm wrote:
JohnStOnge wrote:
Clinton got money for speeches. I've heard nothing about her stiffing other people to build her wealth.
I will admit to trolling you a bit regarding Trump and I actually feel some of replies to you have been a bit unfair, but you can't possible be as stupid as this reply, can you?

:suspicious: :ohno:
Elaborate. How is getting money for speeches, in and of itself, stiffing people in the sense that Trump has stiffed people as described in the article I linked?

You know, like agreeing to pay people for stuff they do then finding ways to weasel out of paying them.
At least 60 lawsuits, along with hundreds of liens, judgments, and other government filings reviewed by the USA TODAY NETWORK, document people who have accused Trump and his businesses of failing to pay them for their work. Among them: a dishwasher in Florida. A glass company in New Jersey. A carpet company. A plumber. Painters. Forty-eight waiters. Dozens of bartenders and other hourly workers at his resorts and clubs, coast to coast. Real estate brokers who sold his properties. And, ironically, several law firms that once represented him in these suits and others.
Do you have some information about Hillary at least allegedly stiffing people like that?
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
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