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Houndy is a primitive human when it comes to understanding economics. He prays to his big gubmint god and asks the elected and agency priests to protect him from demons like inflation.
Actually I don't even think about inflation much at all. Since I have zero debt I only really see it on the expense side and things have never become less expensive over time, and on the expense side there is a fraction that can be covered by barter using anything from chicken eggs to tractor work to a band for a social occasion; and a couple of marijuana plants provide an excellent source for gifts during the holiday season at little to no cost. Thats a difference - I don't need to know much about inflation, and it isn't a very difficult subject. If I needed to, I would know. But I see the time as better spent maybe playing some bossa nova with my Brazilian friends. It's all good!
If you had debt you might actually like inflation (assuming you aren't still accumulating debt). As for things always getting more expensive, of course they do, the question with inflation is how much more expensive do they get relative to how wages increase, hence the difference between 2% inflation and 8% inflation in a short period of time.houndawg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:39 amActually I don't even think about inflation much at all. Since I have zero debt I only really see it on the expense side and things have never become less expensive over time, and on the expense side there is a fraction that can be covered by barter using anything from chicken eggs to tractor work to a band for a social occasion; and a couple of marijuana plants provide an excellent source for gifts during the holiday season at little to no cost. Thats a difference - I don't need to know much about inflation, and it isn't a very difficult subject. If I needed to, I would know. But I see the time as better spent maybe playing some bossa nova with my Brazilian friends. It's all good!
Its nice to pay things off in the future with inflated dollars and its good to own land in times of inflation. Inflation is built into our system and will always be with us until long after Joe Biden is dustGannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:48 amIf you had debt you might actually like inflation (assuming you aren't still accumulating debt). As for things always getting more expensive, of course they do, the question with inflation is how much more expensive do they get relative to how wages increase, hence the difference between 2% inflation and 8% inflation in a short period of time.houndawg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:39 am
Actually I don't even think about inflation much at all. Since I have zero debt I only really see it on the expense side and things have never become less expensive over time, and on the expense side there is a fraction that can be covered by barter using anything from chicken eggs to tractor work to a band for a social occasion; and a couple of marijuana plants provide an excellent source for gifts during the holiday season at little to no cost. Thats a difference - I don't need to know much about inflation, and it isn't a very difficult subject. If I needed to, I would know. But I see the time as better spent maybe playing some bossa nova with my Brazilian friends. It's all good!
No one is arguing that. But if you can't see the difference between the regular, sought after 1%-2% inflation versus the 8%-10% inflation then I won't be able to help you as you would be classified as math illiterate.houndawg wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 2:01 pmIts nice to pay things off in the future with inflated dollars and its good to own land in times of inflation. Inflation is built into our system and will always be with us until long after Joe Biden is dustGannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:48 am
If you had debt you might actually like inflation (assuming you aren't still accumulating debt). As for things always getting more expensive, of course they do, the question with inflation is how much more expensive do they get relative to how wages increase, hence the difference between 2% inflation and 8% inflation in a short period of time.
I didn't say I couldn't see it I said it has very little effect on me compared to most people - and I bet I'm at least as mathmaticly literate as you are, probably more.
Bump. 6.4% January. Up .5% from DecemberBDKJMU wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:06 pm 2021
Jan: 1.4% (Biden enters office)
Feb: 1.7%
March: 2.6%
April: 4.2%
May: 5.0%
June: 5.4%
July: 5.4%
Aug: 5.3%
Sept: 5.4%
Oct: 6.2%
Nov: 6.8%
Dec: 7.0%
2022:
Jan: 7.5%
Feb: 7.9%
March: 8.5%
April: 8.3%
May: 8.6%
June: 9.1%
July 8.5%
Aug 8.3%
Sept 8.2%
Oct 7.7%
Nov 7.1%
Dec 6.5%%
2023
Jan 6.4%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/
Let's be honest, I don't think Biden has the faintest idea what inflation is and how it works. Since the government stopped issuing new blowout spending, as they did after he came into office as we somehow needed another COVID rescue bill on top of the unneeded one that came before it, inflation has been slowly trending downwards. Amazing how turning off the spigot of runaway spending tends to be a downward drag on inflation. And of course, the Fed is thankfully fixing their part in this financial disaster as well. Biden gets the lionshare of the blame, as he should, but he had help.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:17 amBump. 6.4% January. Up .5% from DecemberBDKJMU wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:06 pm 2021
Jan: 1.4% (Biden enters office)
Feb: 1.7%
March: 2.6%
April: 4.2%
May: 5.0%
June: 5.4%
July: 5.4%
Aug: 5.3%
Sept: 5.4%
Oct: 6.2%
Nov: 6.8%
Dec: 7.0%
2022:
Jan: 7.5%
Feb: 7.9%
March: 8.5%
April: 8.3%
May: 8.6%
June: 9.1%
July 8.5%
Aug 8.3%
Sept 8.2%
Oct 7.7%
Nov 7.1%
Dec 6.5%%
2023
Jan 6.4%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ion-rates/
Cumulative (compounded) Brandon's 1st 2 years in office: Close to 15%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consume ... 2023-.html
And Brandon recently claimed he doesn't shoulder any blame for inflation because he inherited high inflation.
And claimed during his SOTU that inflation was going down.
When you posted was editing my post adding Trumps last 2 years (and all 4) (Jan 2017 to Jan 2019 and Jan 2021) compared to Biden’s 1st 2 (Jan 2021 to Jan 2023) with the CPI calculator from BLS. They just updated today with January 2023.GannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:51 pmLet's be honest, I don't think Biden has the faintest idea what inflation is and how it works. Since the government stopped issuing new blowout spending, as they did after he came into office as we somehow needed another COVID rescue bill on top of the unneeded one that came before it, inflation has been slowly trending downwards. Amazing how turning off the spigot of runaway spending tends to be a downward drag on inflation. And of course, the Fed is thankfully fixing their part in this financial disaster as well. Biden gets the lionshare of the blame, as he should, but he had help.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 11:17 am
Bump. 6.4% January. Up .5% from December
Cumulative (compounded) Brandon's 1st 2 years in office: Close to 15%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/14/consume ... 2023-.html
And Brandon recently claimed he doesn't shoulder any blame for inflation because he inherited high inflation.
And claimed during his SOTU that inflation was going down.
Powell has a choice. He can pussyfoot around like Arthur Burns or be decisive like Paul Volcker. If he's smart and cares about his place in history, he'll go the Volker route. To really tame inflation he has to tackle labor shortages and wage inflation and that means a recession.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:57 pmWhen you posted was editing my post adding Trumps last 2 years (and all 4) (Jan 2017 to Jan 2019 and Jan 2021) compared to Biden’s 1st 2 (Jan 2021 to Jan 2023) with the CPI calculator from BLS. They just updated today with January 2023.GannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:51 pm
Let's be honest, I don't think Biden has the faintest idea what inflation is and how it works. Since the government stopped issuing new blowout spending, as they did after he came into office as we somehow needed another COVID rescue bill on top of the unneeded one that came before it, inflation has been slowly trending downwards. Amazing how turning off the spigot of runaway spending tends to be a downward drag on inflation. And of course, the Fed is thankfully fixing their part in this financial disaster as well. Biden gets the lionshare of the blame, as he should, but he had help.
As far as the fed fixing their part of the disaster they are doin a piss poor job because they waited far too long to start raising rates and have been raising them far too slowly. And its yet to be seen if they will finish the job (getting inflation down to 2% target rate). Don’t see that happening unless they raise rates to the 6%-7% range, which they probably won’t.
How does he tackle the wage inflation cat that’s out of the bag? How does he tackle labor shortages?UNI88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:26 pmPowell has a choice. He can pussyfoot around like Arthur Burns or be decisive like Paul Volcker. If he's smart and cares about his place in history, he'll go the Volker route. To really tame inflation he has to tackle labor shortages and wage inflation and that means a recession.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 12:57 pm
When you posted was editing my post adding Trumps last 2 years (and all 4) (Jan 2017 to Jan 2019 and Jan 2021) compared to Biden’s 1st 2 (Jan 2021 to Jan 2023) with the CPI calculator from BLS. They just updated today with January 2023.
As far as the fed fixing their part of the disaster they are doin a piss poor job because they waited far too long to start raising rates and have been raising them far too slowly. And its yet to be seen if they will finish the job (getting inflation down to 2% target rate). Don’t see that happening unless they raise rates to the 6%-7% range, which they probably won’t.
He raises interest rates further, we enter a recession, employment drops, the number of people looking for jobs increases and wage inflation decreases. Hopefully the recession is a short one. The longer he dilly dallies the worse it will need to be. We're in a tight spot that requires tough decisions.kalm wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:29 pmHow does he tackle the wage inflation cat that’s out of the bag? How does he tackle labor shortages?UNI88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:26 pm
Powell has a choice. He can pussyfoot around like Arthur Burns or be decisive like Paul Volcker. If he's smart and cares about his place in history, he'll go the Volker route. To really tame inflation he has to tackle labor shortages and wage inflation and that means a recession.
Well, what's interesting is that we're not in a crazy wage inflation period right now. Real wages actually dropped last month. Wages were the last thing to grow in the recent inflation disaster and wages are apparently the first thing to recede as well. We do have a labor shortage issue, but we need to learn to live with that anyway since the population is growing older anyway. Automation is a real thing and not just in manufacturing anymore. We are doing far more with less and likely will continue in that manner.UNI88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:37 pmHe raises interest rates further, we enter a recession, employment drops, the number of people looking for jobs increases and wage inflation decreases. Hopefully the recession is a short one. The longer he dilly dallies the worse it will need to be. We're in a tight spot that requires tough decisions.
The population growing older is a factor, but the biggest is probably to much disincentives to work. Study that recently came out:GannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:50 pmWell, what's interesting is that we're not in a crazy wage inflation period right now. Real wages actually dropped last month. Wages were the last thing to grow in the recent inflation disaster and wages are apparently the first thing to recede as well. We do have a labor shortage issue, but we need to learn to live with that anyway since the population is growing older anyway. Automation is a real thing and not just in manufacturing anymore. We are doing far more with less and likely will continue in that manner.UNI88 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 1:37 pm
He raises interest rates further, we enter a recession, employment drops, the number of people looking for jobs increases and wage inflation decreases. Hopefully the recession is a short one. The longer he dilly dallies the worse it will need to be. We're in a tight spot that requires tough decisions.
Powell is in an interesting situation here as the inflation we have is largely self-inflicted - again, we kept spending vast sums on COVID relief when it was long past necessary or fruitful to be doing so, and the Fed was asleep at the wheel (in connection with government) to fulfill their role as inflation watchdog. This inflation isn't really fueled by outside forces - sure, the Ukranian war has been an issue, but economically that's worked itself out by now - production and supply chains have rerouted and the damage is minimal. We have a mixed party government now that the GOP took the House in the recent election so new government spending will be limited. Eventually, with no real new spending and with the Fed cautiously moving the rates up, we may not hit the 2% inflation target, but 3%-4% isn't out of the window. An awake Fed and a spending restrained government is a pretty good inflation dampener.
Paying Americans Not to Work
A Family of Four Can Receive over $100,000 Annualized Equivalent in Cash and Benefits in Three States,
And over $80,000 in 14 States, with No One Working
So 22.1 million people between 25 and 54. How many of them are able to work physically? We do have a fair number of people that for various health reasons can't work full time, or some even work at all. Of that number, how many are part of a household with kids where the other spouse works full-time so they are voluntarily a stay at home parent? There's still a child care issue in this country (both availability and cost) and many choose to have one parent stay at home rather than have a job that may or may not actually cover that child care. And then we have the issue of how many of those 22.1 million are even qualified or trained to do the jobs that are open. If you can't do the job because you don't know how or don't have the skills, it won't matter if you want the job or not.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:58 pm According to BLS January #s
160.1 million employed
5.7 million unemployed
62.4% Labor Force Participation Rate. Was 63.1% Feb 2019 when Covid hit. So just doing the math, if we had that same Labor Force Participation Rate now as at the beginning of Covid, would be about 1.8 million more people working.
66.4% Labor Force Participation Rate in Jan 2003. If we had a 66.4% Labor Force Participation Rate today would have about 7.8 million more people working.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-s ... n-rate.htm
100.9 million adults not in the labor force. 22.1 million are age 25-54.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm
We have a labor shortage because too many able bodied people not working who should be..
Their daughter gets a job in a bar downtown and turns it into a recording deal. Duh!GannonFan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 4:02 pmSo 22.1 million people between 25 and 54. How many of them are able to work physically? We do have a fair number of people that for various health reasons can't work full time, or some even work at all. Of that number, how many are part of a household with kids where the other spouse works full-time so they are voluntarily a stay at home parent? There's still a child care issue in this country (both availability and cost) and many choose to have one parent stay at home rather than have a job that may or may not actually cover that child care. And then we have the issue of how many of those 22.1 million are even qualified or trained to do the jobs that are open. If you can't do the job because you don't know how or don't have the skills, it won't matter if you want the job or not.BDKJMU wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:58 pm According to BLS January #s
160.1 million employed
5.7 million unemployed
62.4% Labor Force Participation Rate. Was 63.1% Feb 2019 when Covid hit. So just doing the math, if we had that same Labor Force Participation Rate now as at the beginning of Covid, would be about 1.8 million more people working.
66.4% Labor Force Participation Rate in Jan 2003. If we had a 66.4% Labor Force Participation Rate today would have about 7.8 million more people working.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-s ... n-rate.htm
100.9 million adults not in the labor force. 22.1 million are age 25-54.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm
We have a labor shortage because too many able bodied people not working who should be..
This was always going to be a problem for our country going forward - more and more of the work out there is going to need a fair amount of knowledge and skill to do it, especially as we phase out/design out/automate out the unskilled portion of the work. It's like with tolls on highways - COVID sped up the phase out of toll booth attendants, who's only job all day was to make change while standing in a toll booth. What does that person do now that we've automated many of those positions and their not qualified or skilled to go work in the office monitoring the computer systems and mailing operations that tolls now use? I agree, there needs to be motivation and initiative for people to make the effort to stay employable, but what happens when they aren't successful or just didn't do it?
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-ec ... 7be1da9d14Key US inflation measure surges at fastest rate since June
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose last month at its fastest pace since June, an alarming sign that price pressures remain entrenched in the U.S. economy and could lead the Fed to keep raising interest rates well into this year.
Friday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that consumer prices rose 0.6% from December to January, up sharply from a 0.2% increase from November to December. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 5.4%, up from a 5.3% annual increase in December.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 0.6% from December, up from a 0.4% rise the previous month. And compared with a year earlier, core inflation was up 4.7% in January, versus a 4.6% year-over-year uptick in December.
The report also showed that consumer spending rose 1.8% last month from December after falling the previous month.
January’s price data exceeded forecasters’ expectations, confounding hopes that inflation was steadily decelerating and that the Fed could relent on its campaign of rate hikes. It follows other recent data that also suggested that the economy remains gripped by inflation despite the Fed’s strenuous efforts to tame it.....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/cpi-inf ... 2023-.htmlThe consumer price index rose 0.4% in February and 6% from a year ago, in line with market expectations.
A drop in energy prices helped keep inflation in check, while shelter costs increased sharply.
The probability that the Fed would raise benchmark interest rates a quarter percentage point next week increased following the report.
