Coronavirus COVID-19

[Gil Dobie]

I have a doctor's appointment for tomorrow. Thank for kicking me in the butt to get it done!

Good job Nurse Practitioner 89Hen

[Gil Dobie]

From the CDC Website for the period 2/1-4/25:

Covid Deaths:



This is what we're freaking out about as a country/world.

Dude, we live in a country where people are thrown into jail for having a 0.08 blood alcohol level because of statistics like this:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving

drunk-driving crashes claim more than 10,000 lives per year

We are now approaching 70,000 deaths from the COVID-19 thing.

I hear the new White House numbers, with all the states opening up, is estimated to go right back to where we were, 3000 deaths per day in June. Doubling the predicted total deaths by August. Looks like I will be staying around home for a summer stay-cation. A couple weekend bike rides in-between. Notice Trump isn't coming out for any briefings with the bad news, because he hasn't found anyone to blame it on yet.

Reuters Link

A newly revised coronavirus mortality model predicts nearly 135,000 Americans will die from COVID-19 by early August, almost double previous projections, as social-distancing measures for quelling the pandemic are increasingly relaxed, researchers said on Monday.

[AZGrizFan]

From the CDC Website for the period 2/1-4/25:

Covid Deaths:



This is what we're freaking out about as a country/world.

Do you think these numbers would have been higher without stay the fuck home?

Well, given that 75-80% of the deaths are happening in nursing homes, I’d say.....No.

[AZGrizFan]

From the CDC Website for the period 2/1-4/25:

Covid Deaths:



This is what we're freaking out about as a country/world.

Dude, we live in a country where people are thrown into jail for having a 0.08 blood alcohol level because of statistics like this:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving

drunk-driving crashes claim more than 10,000 lives per year

We are now approaching 70,000 deaths from the COVID-19 thing.

No we’re not. CDC says 38,000. And 30,000 of those are over age 65.

[Skjellyfetti]

Dude, we live in a country where people are thrown into jail for having a 0.08 blood alcohol level because of statistics like this:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving



We are now approaching 70,000 deaths from the COVID-19 thing.

No we’re not. CDC says 38,000. And 30,000 of those are over age 65.

I assume your number is coming from here?

Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[93henfan]

A third Russian doctor has taken a plunge from a hospital window amid complaints about mounting pressures involved in treating coronavirus patients, according to a report.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/third-rus ... -outbreak/

[Gil Dobie]

Dude, we live in a country where people are thrown into jail for having a 0.08 blood alcohol level because of statistics like this:

https://www.nhtsa.gov/risky-driving/drunk-driving



We are now approaching 70,000 deaths from the COVID-19 thing.

No we’re not. CDC says 38,000. And 30,000 of those are over age 65.

Show me the link. If I look at the CDC site, it shows 67,456 at this moment.

CDC Link

TOTAL CASES
1,152,372
29,763 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*

[CID1990]

We are already north of initial CDC predictions on fatalities

Antibody testing in New York shows that significantly less people have had the virus than expected

These are not good indicators

[BDKJMU]

We are already north of initial CDC predictions on fatalities

Antibody testing in New York shows that significantly less people have had the virus than expected

These are not good indicators

From 11 days ago:

Preliminary results from New York's first coronavirus antibody study show nearly 14 percent tested positive, meaning they had the virus at some point and recovered, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. That equates to 2.7 million infections statewide -- more than 10 times the state's confirmed cases.

The study, part of Cuomo's "aggressive" antibody testing launched earlier this week, is based on 3,000 random samples from 40 locations in 19 counties. While the preliminary data suggests much more widespread infection, it means New York's mortality rate is much lower than previously thought.

As of Thursday, nearly 16,000 people in New York have died of virus-related complications. With 260,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/n ... s/2386556/
A lower mortality rate would be good news.

[Ivytalk]

A third Russian doctor has taken a plunge from a hospital window amid complaints about mounting pressures involved in treating coronavirus patients, according to a report.

https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/third-rus ... -outbreak/

Probably some Chinaman pushed him out.

[Gil Dobie]

We are already north of initial CDC predictions on fatalities

Antibody testing in New York shows that significantly less people have had the virus than expected

These are not good indicators

From 11 days ago:

Preliminary results from New York's first coronavirus antibody study show nearly 14 percent tested positive, meaning they had the virus at some point and recovered, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. That equates to 2.7 million infections statewide -- more than 10 times the state's confirmed cases.

The study, part of Cuomo's "aggressive" antibody testing launched earlier this week, is based on 3,000 random samples from 40 locations in 19 counties. While the preliminary data suggests much more widespread infection, it means New York's mortality rate is much lower than previously thought.

As of Thursday, nearly 16,000 people in New York have died of virus-related complications. With 260,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/n ... s/2386556/
A lower mortality rate would be good news.

There are still nearly a million confirmed active cases. Hopefully one of these treatments helps reduce the death rate even more. The mitigation has helped, keeping hospital beds in hot spots, available. Unlike Italy, where they didn't treat people over 60. Even NY was doing DNR's in some places.

[Ivytalk]

From 11 days ago:

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/n ... s/2386556/
A lower mortality rate would be good news.

There are still nearly a million confirmed active cases. Hopefully one of these treatments helps reduce the death rate even more. The mitigation has helped, keeping hospital beds in hot spots, available. Unlike Italy, where they didn't treat people over 60. Even NY was doing DNR's in some places.

DNRs can be part of a reasonable estate plan. I know of older relatives who have them. Just don’t impose them on people.

[Gil Dobie]

There are still nearly a million confirmed active cases. Hopefully one of these treatments helps reduce the death rate even more. The mitigation has helped, keeping hospital beds in hot spots, available. Unlike Italy, where they didn't treat people over 60. Even NY was doing DNR's in some places.

DNRs can be part of a reasonable estate plan. I know of older relatives who have them. Just don’t impose them on people.

They were mandating them in certain area's, no choice.

Forbes Link

The policies, called “do not resuscitate,” or DNR for short, are medical orders not to perform CPR on a patient if their heart stops beating, or if they stop breathing, according to the Mount Sinai Health System.

Some New York City doctors are being allowed to not resuscitate COVID-19 patients to reduce their exposure to the virus, the Post reported, but spokespeople for Montefiore, NYU Langone Health and New York-Presbyterian’s Brooklyn Methodist hospitals said no system-wide policies have been instated.
Montefiore workers are reportedly no longer performing chest compressions on COVID-19 patients, due to the risk of exposure and the amount of protective gear needed, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

[AZGrizFan]

DNRs can be part of a reasonable estate plan. I know of older relatives who have them. Just don’t impose them on people.

They were mandating them in certain area's, no choice.

Forbes Link

The policies, called “do not resuscitate,” or DNR for short, are medical orders not to perform CPR on a patient if their heart stops beating, or if they stop breathing, according to the Mount Sinai Health System.

Some New York City doctors are being allowed to not resuscitate COVID-19 patients to reduce their exposure to the virus, the Post reported, but spokespeople for Montefiore, NYU Langone Health and New York-Presbyterian’s Brooklyn Methodist hospitals said no system-wide policies have been instated.
Montefiore workers are reportedly no longer performing chest compressions on COVID-19 patients, due to the risk of exposure and the amount of protective gear needed, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

But hey, the government isn’t going to have death panels....

[Gil Dobie]

They were mandating them in certain area's, no choice.

Forbes Link

The policies, called “do not resuscitate,” or DNR for short, are medical orders not to perform CPR on a patient if their heart stops beating, or if they stop breathing, according to the Mount Sinai Health System.

Some New York City doctors are being allowed to not resuscitate COVID-19 patients to reduce their exposure to the virus, the Post reported, but spokespeople for Montefiore, NYU Langone Health and New York-Presbyterian’s Brooklyn Methodist hospitals said no system-wide policies have been instated.
Montefiore workers are reportedly no longer performing chest compressions on COVID-19 patients, due to the risk of exposure and the amount of protective gear needed, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

But hey, the government isn’t going to have death panels....

I wouldn't put it past them if things got bad.

[SDHornet]

They were mandating them in certain area's, no choice.

Forbes Link

The policies, called “do not resuscitate,” or DNR for short, are medical orders not to perform CPR on a patient if their heart stops beating, or if they stop breathing, according to the Mount Sinai Health System.

Some New York City doctors are being allowed to not resuscitate COVID-19 patients to reduce their exposure to the virus, the Post reported, but spokespeople for Montefiore, NYU Langone Health and New York-Presbyterian’s Brooklyn Methodist hospitals said no system-wide policies have been instated.
Montefiore workers are reportedly no longer performing chest compressions on COVID-19 patients, due to the risk of exposure and the amount of protective gear needed, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

But hey, the government isn’t going to have death panels....

[BDKJMU]

MIGHT be good news..

A mutation in the novel coronavirus mirrors a change that occurred in the genetically similar SARS virus in 2003 — indicating that the bug might be weakening, researchers announced in a newly published study.

Lead study author Dr. Efren Lim, an assistant professor at Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, and his team use a new technology called next-generation sequencing to rapidly read the genetic code of the coronavirus, referred to scientists as SARS-CoV-2.

That technology helps researchers to determine how the virus is spreading, mutating and adapting over time.

Out of the 382 nasal swab samples the researchers examined from coronavirus patients in the state, a single sample was missing a significant chunk of its genome. Eighty-one of the letters were permanently deleted, according to the new study published in the Journal of Virology.

“One of the reasons why this mutation is of interest is because it mirrors a large deletion that arose in the 2003 SARS outbreak,” Lim said in a statement.

During the middle and late phases of the 2003 SARS epidemic, the virus accumulated mutations that lessened its strength, according to the researchers.

“Where the deletion occurs in the genome is pretty meaningful because it’s a known immune protein which means it counteracts the host’s antiviral response,” Lim told the Daily Mail.

A weakened virus that causes less severe symptoms may get a leg up if it is able to spread efficiently through populations by people who don’t know they are infected, the scientists say.

However, it’s too soon to say whether the novel coronavirus is beginning to lose its potency, according to the researchers.

All of the patients whose samples the Arizona scientists analyzed had some clinical coronavirus symptoms — meaning that even the version with 81 deletions was still strong enough to make the patient at least somewhat sick, the Mail reported.

This is the first time such a deletion has been seen in the 16,000 coronavirus genomes that have been sequenced to date, according to the researchers.

That’s less than half a percent of the strains circulating, according to the scientists. There are about 3.6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide.

“This is a drop in the bucket,” Lim told the Mail.

“One sample is the convincing thing we need to say “look at this,”‘ meaning that if more coronavirus genomes are sequenced, scientists might find far more instances of this attenuated genome,” he said.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/new-mut ... study-says

[BDKJMU]

Tampa closes roads to allow restaurants, retailers to operate outside with social distancing
https://www.foxnews.com/us/tampa-closes ... distancing

Good idea now that we're in the middle of Spring. Course can only work in certain downtown areas of towns & cities in decent weather.

[Gil Dobie]

Worldometer goes over 70,000 deaths today, with over 2000 new deaths.

[BDKJMU]

Worldometer goes over 70,000 deaths today, with over 2000 new deaths.

Something doesn't add up. The official CDC scoreboard, updated each day 4 PM ECB, 68,279 deaths, says 823 new deaths since yesterday..
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

[Gil Dobie]

Worldometer goes over 70,000 deaths today, with over 2000 new deaths.

Something doesn't add up. The official CDC scoreboard, updated each day 4 PM ECB, 68,279 deaths, says 823 new deaths since yesterday..
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

Looks like yesterdays Worldometer totals on the CDC site.

[BDKJMU]

Proof that conk governors have handled the Chinese Virus better than donk govs:

In fact, the red states that refused to issue any stay-at-home orders at all have experienced even fewer coronavirus deaths per million than Florida: Arkansas (26.5), Iowa (59.6), Oklahoma (60.1), Nebraska (40.3), Utah (15.6), North Dakota (32.8), South Dakota (23.7), and Wyoming (12.1)...

....The District of Columbia has a death rate per million of 365.6. Maryland’s fatality per million is 217.8. New Jersey, as discussed above, clocks in at 895.2 per million. New York is by far the worst in the nation with a fatality rate of 1,282.2 per million. Connecticut has a death rate per million of 716.9. Massachusetts is at 588.5 deaths per million. And there is Michigan, of course, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown has produced a death rate of 414.0 per million...

....At present, there are 26 states with Republican governors, 24 states with Democratic governors, and D.C. This is an imperfect breakdown of red and blue states, of course. For purposes of this discussion, however, we will assume “conservative” Democratic governors in red states cancel out “RINO” governors in blue states. That leaves us with the following.

In our 26 red states, the average coronavirus death rate per million is about 82. In the 24 blue states, plus the District of Columbia, it’s about 235. On average, then, you are about 2.9 times more likely to die of COVID-19 if you live a blue state than if you live in a red state.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-death ... ve-factor/

[UNI88]

Proof that conk governors have handled the Chinese Virus better than donk govs:

In fact, the red states that refused to issue any stay-at-home orders at all have experienced even fewer coronavirus deaths per million than Florida: Arkansas (26.5), Iowa (59.6), Oklahoma (60.1), Nebraska (40.3), Utah (15.6), North Dakota (32.8), South Dakota (23.7), and Wyoming (12.1)...

....The District of Columbia has a death rate per million of 365.6. Maryland’s fatality per million is 217.8. New Jersey, as discussed above, clocks in at 895.2 per million. New York is by far the worst in the nation with a fatality rate of 1,282.2 per million. Connecticut has a death rate per million of 716.9. Massachusetts is at 588.5 deaths per million. And there is Michigan, of course, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown has produced a death rate of 414.0 per million...

....At present, there are 26 states with Republican governors, 24 states with Democratic governors, and D.C. This is an imperfect breakdown of red and blue states, of course. For purposes of this discussion, however, we will assume “conservative” Democratic governors in red states cancel out “RINO” governors in blue states. That leaves us with the following.

In our 26 red states, the average coronavirus death rate per million is about 82. In the 24 blue states, plus the District of Columbia, it’s about 235. On average, then, you are about 2.9 times more likely to die of COVID-19 if you live a blue state than if you live in a red state.

https://spectator.org/coronavirus-death ... ve-factor/

That seems like a pretty superficial summary. To be intellectually honest you would need to consider a host of other factors such as population density. Large cities are more likely to be in states with Donk governors and that will skew the results.

[JohnStOnge]

No we’re not. CDC says 38,000. And 30,000 of those are over age 65.

I assume your number is coming from here?

Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Yes I think that is the source of the confusion. The provisional deaths page is a good place to look at the demographics of the impact. But the place to look at the actual current overall CDC death count is https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html. Right now the count is at 68,279.

It'll almost certainly go over 70,000 tomorrow as the Worldometer site registered over 2,000 today. If not it'll certainly breach 70,000 on the next day.

I think the Worldometers site is counting days by UTC time and I think CDC is counting them by EDT. Also CDC is always one day behind. The 68,279 up right now is the count as of 4 pm EDT yesterday.

[Silenoz]

Who knew the Chinese government had a sense of humor