The Ukraine Crisis

[Seahawks08]

I'm glad we are getting ready to intentionally reduce our ground forces. We'll have about the 7th or 8th largest standing army in the world. Anything bigger is too much of a temptation for the interventionists.

That being said, it will be interesting to see how NATO reacts if Putin does decide to invade the rest of Ukraine. I imagine it would inevitably be split into three different countries East Ukraine/West Ukraine/Crimea. Nonetheless, it should be an interesting couple of weeks.

[kalm]

Interesting break down here...

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1168 ... -what-next" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[kalm]

Aaaaand Boom! Sarah Palin on Facebook...

Sarah Palin
Friday at 1:31pm
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I'm usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: "After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next."

[Baldy]

Aaaaand Boom! Sarah Palin on Facebook...

Sarah Palin
Friday at 1:31pm
Yes, I could see this one from Alaska. I'm usually not one to Told-Ya-So, but I did, despite my accurate prediction being derided as “an extremely far-fetched scenario” by the “high-brow” Foreign Policy magazine. Here’s what this “stupid” “insipid woman” predicted back in 2008: "After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next."

Obama punked by Palin.
Sad but not surprising.

[Skjellyfetti]

Blind pig

[Skjellyfetti]

That would be like Mexico flooding with their own citizens, a neighboring US state with important strategic ocean access, say Southern CA (oh wait, they already have), and having those people turn around and ask Mexico to come, and Mexico using that as a pretext for an invasion of Southern CA. According to your logic that wouldn't be aggression on the part of Mexico.

Missed another shitty analogy.

It's not like that at all -- though, your scenario does certainly sound like a good analogy for how we gained Texas from Mexico.




A better comparison (still pretty shitty... but, y'all seem to like to think about things in analogies...) would be Puerto Rico - an autonomous territory of the United States. They're heavily hispanic and Spanish speaking (though probably don't identify as connected to Spain as much as the Crimea sees themselves as a part of Russia). If the US spiraled into chaos... and Puerto Rico wanted to join Spain... I wouldn't really give a shit.

Again, not the best analogy... but, certainly better than yours, imo... and, since you seem to only be able to think of foreign events in terms of analogies to more local hypotheticals... there you go.

[BDKJMU]

That would be like Mexico flooding with their own citizens, a neighboring US state with important strategic ocean access, say Southern CA (oh wait, they already have), and having those people turn around and ask Mexico to come, and Mexico using that as a pretext for an invasion of Southern CA. According to your logic that wouldn't be aggression on the part of Mexico.

Missed another shitty analogy.

It's not like that at all -- though, your scenario does certainly sound like a good analogy for how we gained Texas from Mexico.

A better comparison (still pretty shitty... but, y'all seem to like to think about things in analogies...) would be Puerto Rico - an autonomous territory of the United States. They're heavily hispanic and Spanish speaking (though probably don't identify as connected to Spain as much as the Crimea sees themselves as a part of Russia). If the US spiraled into chaos... and Puerto Rico wanted to join Spain... I wouldn't really give a ****.

Again, not the best analogy... but, certainly better than yours, imo... and, since you seem to only be able to think of foreign events in terms of analogies to more local hypotheticals... there you go.

Yes that is a shitty analogy- Russia hasn't spiraled into chaos. Better than my analogy

[Skjellyfetti]

Yes that is a shitty analogy- Russia hasn't spiraled into chaos. Better than my analogy

Wow. You are bad at this.

The Crimea is an autonomous region of the Ukraine... kinda like how Puerto Rico is an autonomous territory of the United States. The Ukraine is what I was comparing to the United States. The Ukraine certainly has spiraled into chaos over the last few weeks if you haven't noticed.

Swing and miss.

[Baldy]

Blind pig

Not at all. This has been on Putin's radar the second Obama nixed the Eastern European missile defense system.

[SDHornet]

Invade Iraq or just the Kurdish areas?

If you're saying all of Iraq... that's not at all analogous. If you're just saying the Kurdish areas... sure. I think the Kurds should have their own country and I'm in support of a Kurdistan.

Now, I'm not at all in favor of starting a war with Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran to make a Kurdistan... but, I think it would be completely justified if we did.

Should have listened to TE Lawrence after WWI, but that is another topic entirely.

You're right, they're not analogous unless we're just taking about invading Kurdish Iraq. I just don't think it's justified. Violating the borders of a sovereign nation should require a little bit more than an invitation from a minority population. If that were all it took to justify an invasion than BDKJMU is right that Mexico would be justified in invading southern California if enough people of Mexican decent asked for it.

This is basically what Jelly is stating, and from that is the absurdity of the logic that it's not an invasion because they were asked to come.

And no we shouldn't give a damn about the Ukraine or send any troops to deal with this issue. It's the EU's problem because their gas comes through pipelines located in the Ukraine. The bigger picture is this move will give Russia control over EU's policy as Russia will control the lifeline of their energy. The EU is fucked, but that's their problem. But thanks to our incompetent president, it's somehow our problem now.

[BlueHen86]

Aaaaand Boom! Sarah Palin on Facebook...

Obama punked by Palin.
Sad but not surprising.

True. But there isn't much that Obama could have done to prevent this. Obama may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Russia's back yard. Russia is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Palin would not have been able to stop this.

[kalm]

Blind pig

Not at all. This has been on Putin's radar the second Obama nixed the Eastern European missile defense system.

Assuming Palin was aware of this. Reminds me of the SNL skit where Phil Hartmann plays a senile Reagan in front of the press but behind the scenes is a shrewd policy dynamo.

[SDHornet]

Obama punked by Palin.
Sad but not surprising.

True. But there isn't much that Obama could have done to prevent this. Obama may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Russia's back yard. Russia is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Palin would not have been able to stop this.

Agreed. But it begs the question: Had Obama not been weak on other foreign affairs issues (line in the sand on Syria, having a "random protest" overrun a CIA compound with our "ambassador" in it, etc) would Russia had the stones to do anything in the first place?

See Russia KNOWS Obama isn't going to do a damn thing about it. That is the real issue here. Now does China make a power move in the South China Sea to secure some of those prime oil drilling territories in the disputed areas? If I'm them, why the hell wouldn't I?

[BlueHen86]

Not at all. This has been on Putin's radar the second Obama nixed the Eastern European missile defense system.

Assuming Palin was aware of this. Reminds me of the SNL skit where Phil Hartmann plays a senile Reagan in front of the press but behind the scenes is a shrewd policy dynamo.

http://screen.yahoo.com/president-reaga ... 00075.html

[SDHornet]

Assuming Palin was aware of this. Reminds me of the SNL skit where Phil Hartmann plays a senile Reagan in front of the press but behind the scenes is a shrewd policy dynamo.

http://screen.yahoo.com/president-reaga ... 00075.html

[BDKJMU]

Yes that is a shitty analogy- Russia hasn't spiraled into chaos. Better than my analogy

Wow. You are bad at this.

The Crimea is an autonomous region of the Ukraine... kinda like how Puerto Rico is an autonomous territory of the United States. The Ukraine is what I was comparing to the United States. The Ukraine certainly has spiraled into chaos over the last few weeks if you haven't noticed.

Swing and miss.

You missed the part where Spain didn't forcibly remove a huge chunk of PR's population to resettle elsewhere, replacing it with their own, then using being asked to come by 60% of the population as a pre text for invasion.

Like I said, you're analogy is far sh*ttier than mine.

[kalm]

Assuming Palin was aware of this. Reminds me of the SNL skit where Phil Hartmann plays a senile Reagan in front of the press but behind the scenes is a shrewd policy dynamo.

http://screen.yahoo.com/president-reaga ... 00075.html

Thanks for finding that!

[BDKJMU]

True. But there isn't much that Obama could have done to prevent this. Obama may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Russia's back yard. Russia is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Palin would not have been able to stop this.

Agreed. But it begs the question: Had Obama not been weak on other foreign affairs issues (line in the sand on Syria, having a "random protest" overrun a CIA compound with our "ambassador" in it, etc) would Russia had the stones to do anything in the first place?

See Russia KNOWS Obama isn't going to do a damn thing about it. That is the real issue here. Now does China make a power move in the South China Sea to secure some of those prime oil drilling territories in the disputed areas? If I'm them, why the hell wouldn't I?

Good point. If it was JUST Ukraine, then yeah, it sucks for them, and the EU (energy), but the US doesn't have a vital national security interest. But its the cumulative domino effect.1st Georgia (South Ossetia), then Ukraine, then ????. Then as you mentioned with China...

[BDKJMU]

Obama punked by Palin.
Sad but not surprising.

True. But there isn't much that Obama could have done to prevent this. Obama may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Russia's back yard. Russia is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Palin would not have been able to stop this.

All true. But this reminds me of the Sudetenland in 1938. I'm going to have a little fun with this.

"True. But there isn't much that FDR could have done to prevent this. FDR may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Germany's back yard. Germany is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Hoover wouldn't have been able to stop this."

After all, the ethnic German majority in Sudetenland asked Germany to come...

[BDKJMU]

Putin and the Russians are going to have a field day in Ukraine.

I really doubt it. They're going to take the Crimea and that's it. I do not think they'll invade all of Ukraine.

The Crimea asked them to come. It's not aggression on the part of Russia (despite what Obama and others have said). If they want to be a part of Russia... so be it. I do not really give a **** one way or the other.




And, yeah, this is another thing I disagree with Obama on.

You would have said it wasn't aggression on the part of Germany in 1938. After all, the Sudetenland asked him to come...

[SDHornet]

After all, the ethnic German majority in Sudetenland asked Germany to come...

I thought of this too. The brilliant thing in all of this is Hitler fired no shots in the reunification of the Fatherland, after all it was what they wanted. Will Putin also fire no shots in the reunification of Mother Russia? It was a stupid alliance that Britain made with Poland (one that Britain had no means of enforcing) that officially started WWII. Will Obama make similar empty alliances (or maybe we already have these “alliances” via NATO, EU, UN, etc) with countries looking to stave off Russian invasion …er eh ah or whatever Jelly wants to call these acts of aggression.

Looks like we’ve got a brilliant case of history repeating itself unfolding right in front of our eyes.

[SDHornet]

The plot thickens:

KIEV/BALACLAVA, Ukraine (Reuters) - Ukraine mobilized for war on Sunday and Washington threatened to isolate Russia economically, after President Vladimir Putin declared he had the right to invade his neighbor in Moscow's biggest confrontation with the West since the Cold War.

"This is not a threat: this is actually the declaration of war to my country," Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, head of a pro-Western government that took power when Russian ally Viktor Yanukovich fled last week, said in English.

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-ready-invad ... .html?vp=1

Yup, Russia was asked to come.

[BDKJMU]

"..Putin “is running circles around” the U.S. in his maneuvering on the global stage..

...“I think Putin is playing chess, and I think we’re playing marbles. It’s not even close,”...
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs ... ogers-says" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[BlueHen86]

True. But there isn't much that Obama could have done to prevent this. Obama may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Russia's back yard. Russia is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Palin would not have been able to stop this.

All true. But this reminds me of the Sudetenland in 1938. I'm going to have a little fun with this.

"True. But there isn't much that FDR could have done to prevent this. FDR may be weak in his foreign policy, but this is right in Germany's back yard. Germany is going to do what it wants, and would probably be willing to go to war if need be. I don't think any U.S. President (or the U.S. people) would be willing to go that far.

Even President Hoover wouldn't have been able to stop this."

After all, the ethnic German majority in Sudetenland asked Germany to come...

Not an exact comparison, we weren't the playing "world police" and the time, and Britain and France signed off on ceding the Sudetenland to Germany at the Munich Conference (this led to the famous Chamberlain statement of "peace for our time").

I don't think anybody has agreed to cede anything to Russia yet.

[BlueHen86]

"..Putin “is running circles around” the U.S. in his maneuvering on the global stage..

...“I think Putin is playing chess, and I think we’re playing marbles. It’s not even close,”...
http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs ... ogers-says" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So what do you think we should do? Do you have a solution? Or is this just another excuse for you to bash a President that you don't like?

I'm not an Obama fan either, but sometimes you have to recognize that he really doesn't have any good options here. I'll be happy if he keeps us out of a war. I don't think our national security depends on which flag flies over the Crimea.