2020 General Election

[JohnStOnge]

I recently updated logistic regression using the college football odds data at https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/. I'll use that to put the difference between how big a favorite Clinton was in 2016 and how big a favorite Biden was in 2020.

The 2016 538 election eve forecast indicated 71.4% confidence that Clinton would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a an 8 point favorite is going to win (71.7% confidence).

The 2020 538 election eve forecast indicated 89% confidence that Biden would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a 17 point favorite is going to win (88.8% confidence).

This whole thing is just so ridiculous. There was NO reason to think Trump was going to win. Everything unfolded as expected. There is, to my knowledge, no agency at State or Federal levels whose job it is to look into such things that has indicated that they think there is even a reason to SUSPECT fraud or irregularity sufficient to change the outcome. Neither Republican nor Democrat election officials that think that.

This election fraud thing is like believing in bigfoot. It's gotten to that point.

[AZGrizFan]

I recently updated logistic regression using the college football odds data at https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/. I'll use that to put the difference between how big a favorite Clinton was in 2016 and how big a favorite Biden was in 2020.

The 2016 538 election eve forecast indicated 71.4% confidence that Clinton would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a an 8 point favorite is going to win (71.7% confidence).

The 2020 538 election eve forecast indicated 89% confidence that Biden would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a 17 point favorite is going to win (88.8% confidence).

This whole thing is just so ridiculous. There was NO reason to think Trump was going to win. Everything unfolded as expected. There is, to my knowledge, no agency at State or Federal levels whose job it is to look into such things that has indicated that they think there is even a reason to SUSPECT fraud or irregularity sufficient to change the outcome. Neither Republican nor Democrat election officials that think that.

This election fraud thing is like believing in bigfoot. It's gotten to that point.

Whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking PHONE.

Now that’s just crazy talk!!

[JohnStOnge]

I recently updated logistic regression using the college football odds data at https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/odds-history/results/. I'll use that to put the difference between how big a favorite Clinton was in 2016 and how big a favorite Biden was in 2020.

The 2016 538 election eve forecast indicated 71.4% confidence that Clinton would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a an 8 point favorite is going to win (71.7% confidence).

The 2020 538 election eve forecast indicated 89% confidence that Biden would win. That is about the same as the confidence that a NCAA football team that is a 17 point favorite is going to win (88.8% confidence).

This whole thing is just so ridiculous. There was NO reason to think Trump was going to win. Everything unfolded as expected. There is, to my knowledge, no agency at State or Federal levels whose job it is to look into such things that has indicated that they think there is even a reason to SUSPECT fraud or irregularity sufficient to change the outcome. Neither Republican nor Democrat election officials that think that.

This election fraud thing is like believing in bigfoot. It's gotten to that point.

Whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking PHONE.

Now that’s just crazy talk!!

No it's not. This whole election fraud thing is just absolutely absurd. It's people insisting on believing in something that very obviously isn't true no matter how thoroughly it is debunked. And this thing about Biden winning due to fraud HAS been very thoroughly debunked. Repeatedly. People who continue with this stuff need to take their tinfoil hats off. Now.

[houndawg]

Will he try to decouple from Trump?

He doesn’t have to. He’s Trump without the mean tweets and snarkiness. Most Trump supporters that held their noses and pulled the lever for him only did it because they could look past those glaring personality flaws and voted for tax cuts for the hyper-wealthy, the only policy the Republican Party has. Now we don’t have to do that. Nor do those who changed their minds and decided to vote Biden because they didn’t “like” Trump after having voted for him in ‘16.

Best case scenario: Bumbling Joe is deemed unfit, the Empty suit Kamala becomes president, fucks things up for a couple years and DeSantis can come riding in to the rescue.

[houndawg]

Will he try to decouple from Trump?

He doesn’t have to. He’s Trump without the mean tweets and snarkiness. Most Trump supporters that held their noses and pulled the lever for him only did it because they could look past those glaring personality flaws and voted for tax cuts for the hyper-wealthy, the only policy the Republican Party has. Now we don’t have to do that. Nor do those who changed their minds and decided to vote Biden because they didn’t “like” Trump after having voted for him in ‘16.

Best case scenario: Bumbling Joe is deemed unfit, the Empty suit Kamala becomes president, fucks things up for a couple years and DeSantis can come riding in to the rescue.

Fixed it for you

[SeattleGriz]

Whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking PHONE.

Now that’s just crazy talk!!

No it's not. This whole election fraud thing is just absolutely absurd. It's people insisting on believing in something that very obviously isn't true no matter how thoroughly it is debunked. And this thing about Biden winning due to fraud HAS been very thoroughly debunked. Repeatedly. People who continue with this stuff need to take their tinfoil hats off. Now.

Until I see the results of an actual hand count of physical ballots like that in Maricopa, there will always be doubt.

You apparently have missed the video making it's way around the internet taking clips of prominent Dems stating how fraud is easily perpetrated through our voting machines.

The hand count will remove all doubt.

No that I've said that, you wait. It's probably going to vary just enough that there won't be resolution like with Russia collusion and Bill Barr's payback. Nothing happens to change shit.

[SDHornet]

So NYC Finds a 135,000 vote error in election count, and yet-
around a 42k vote differential decided GA, AZ & WI, and therefore the presidency..but voter fraud or vote error on that scale, impossible!

Exactly. It wasn't even the highly trained election staff that caught the error either. So if the highly trained election staff are missing these issues, how is anyone else to know? Wonder how many slip by.

Oh noes another leftist narrative about the secure elections falls through.

[SDHornet]

Oh...

[CID1990]

Oh...

There’s a lot of distance between “the FBI orchestrated this” and “the FBI had informants/agents at the riot”

The second one wouldn’t surprise me (in fact I am sure it was the case).. but that’s what the FBI does. They infil criminal and dissident organizations. The hardcore MAGA right is all out in the open on the internet and that’s like catnip for the FBI.

And - the FBI and other Federal LE agencies walk a tightrope between legality and all out illegal activities (I have witnessed this firsthand, multiple times from the USMS and DEA - the latter is basically a transnational criminal organization with badges)

All of that said, the FBI was rightly watching this rabble with the resources they had. And, if there was any chicanery you had better believe that defense attorneys for anybody locked up for the riots would make sure we ALL know about it.

In other words, I am sure the FBI had all their goofballs there but the idea that they encouraged the riot is basically 9-11 trutherism


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[andy7171]

Whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking PHONE.

Now that’s just crazy talk!!

No it's not. This whole election fraud thing is just absolutely absurd. It's people insisting on believing in something that very obviously isn't true no matter how thoroughly it is debunked. And this thing about Biden winning due to fraud HAS been very thoroughly debunked. Repeatedly. People who continue with this stuff need to take their tinfoil hats off. Now.

If you hadn't railed for 4 years about Russia rigging the 2016 election, I'd be willing to listen.

[SeattleGriz]

Might as well throw it in this thread. Looks as the name of the officer who shot Babbitt is finally coming out, although if you dug a little, it has been out there due to the distinct bracelet he was wearing.

Now onto what looks bad. There is a photo of him circulating that shows him carrying a big book under one arm, while he is holding his pistol in the other with his finger on the trigger...pointed at his fellow officers. Then you have the report he previously left his service pistol in the bathroom of the Capitol.

Not sure how big a deal the last two items are, but you can bet they will be used against him.

[andy7171]

Might as well throw it in this thread. Looks as the name of the officer who shot Babbitt is finally coming out, although if you dug a little, it has been out there due to the distinct bracelet he was wearing.

Now onto what looks bad. There is a photo of him circulating that shows him carrying a big book under one arm, while he is holding his pistol in the other with his finger on the trigger...pointed at his fellow officers. Then you have the report he previously left his service pistol in the bathroom of the Capitol.

Not sure how big a deal the last two items are, but you can bet they will be used against him.

I heard on the radio weeks ago that it might be the same officer that left his gun in the bathroom.

[SeattleGriz]

Might as well throw it in this thread. Looks as the name of the officer who shot Babbitt is finally coming out, although if you dug a little, it has been out there due to the distinct bracelet he was wearing.

Now onto what looks bad. There is a photo of him circulating that shows him carrying a big book under one arm, while he is holding his pistol in the other with his finger on the trigger...pointed at his fellow officers. Then you have the report he previously left his service pistol in the bathroom of the Capitol.

Not sure how big a deal the last two items are, but you can bet they will be used against him.

I heard on the radio weeks ago that it might be the same officer that left his gun in the bathroom.

Yep. Like I was saying, not sure how big a deal these items are, because I'm not a law enforcement officer, but the leaving the gun in the bathroom and showing a lack of discipline in handling your firearm won't go over well.

[SDHornet]

Oh...

There’s a lot of distance between “the FBI orchestrated this” and “the FBI had informants/agents at the riot”

The second one wouldn’t surprise me (in fact I am sure it was the case).. but that’s what the FBI does. They infil criminal and dissident organizations. The hardcore MAGA right is all out in the open on the internet and that’s like catnip for the FBI.

And - the FBI and other Federal LE agencies walk a tightrope between legality and all out illegal activities (I have witnessed this firsthand, multiple times from the USMS and DEA - the latter is basically a transnational criminal organization with badges)

All of that said, the FBI was rightly watching this rabble with the resources they had. And, if there was any chicanery you had better believe that defense attorneys for anybody locked up for the riots would make sure we ALL know about it.

In other words, I am sure the FBI had all their goofballs there but the idea that they encouraged the riot is basically 9-11 trutherism


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No doubt they had informants, but it shits all over the "they didn't know a riot would happen so that's why they were unprepared" narrative as to why a bunch of MAGA folks pranced right into the Capitol. Also the FBI knowing about a pending event and doing nothing to stop it is pretty much par for the course.

[AZGrizFan]

There’s a lot of distance between “the FBI orchestrated this” and “the FBI had informants/agents at the riot”

The second one wouldn’t surprise me (in fact I am sure it was the case).. but that’s what the FBI does. They infil criminal and dissident organizations. The hardcore MAGA right is all out in the open on the internet and that’s like catnip for the FBI.

And - the FBI and other Federal LE agencies walk a tightrope between legality and all out illegal activities (I have witnessed this firsthand, multiple times from the USMS and DEA - the latter is basically a transnational criminal organization with badges)

All of that said, the FBI was rightly watching this rabble with the resources they had. And, if there was any chicanery you had better believe that defense attorneys for anybody locked up for the riots would make sure we ALL know about it.

In other words, I am sure the FBI had all their goofballs there but the idea that they encouraged the riot is basically 9-11 trutherism


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No doubt they had informants, but it shits all over the "they didn't know a riot would happen so that's why they were unprepared" narrative as to why a bunch of MAGA folks pranced right into the Capitol. Also the FBI knowing about a pending event and doing nothing to stop it is pretty much par for the course.

Boy howdy. That is literally the FBI playbook right there.

[BDKJMU]

On the lines of govt agencies going rogue, the NSA caught spying on Tucker Carlson.

[kalm]

No doubt they had informants, but it shits all over the "they didn't know a riot would happen so that's why they were unprepared" narrative as to why a bunch of MAGA folks pranced right into the Capitol. Also the FBI knowing about a pending event and doing nothing to stop it is pretty much par for the course.

Boy howdy. That is literally the FBI playbook right there.

There were threat alerts from at least one office and there were jurisdictional issues that got in the way IIRC.

[UNI88]

Boy howdy. That is literally the FBI playbook right there.

There were threat alerts from at least one office and there were jurisdictional issues that got in the way IIRC.

The US government was almost overthrown due to jurisdictional issues?

[kalm]

There were threat alerts from at least one office and there were jurisdictional issues that got in the way IIRC.

The US government was almost overthrown due to jurisdictional issues?

Something like that.

[SeattleGriz]

On the lines of govt agencies going rogue, the NSA caught spying on Tucker Carlson.

Hell, we got problems with the SSCI leaking for political reasons.

[SDHornet]

There were threat alerts from at least one office and there were jurisdictional issues that got in the way IIRC.

The US government was almost overthrown due to jurisdictional issues?

The Leftist narratives are just comical at this point.

[Ibanez]

On the lines of govt agencies going rogue, the NSA caught spying on Tucker Carlson.

Fake news. You've got a known liar and crybaby bitching about the same old nonsense. There isn't anything here other than a weak attempt to get ratings.

[SeattleGriz]

On the lines of govt agencies going rogue, the NSA caught spying on Tucker Carlson.

Fake news. You've got a known liar and crybaby bitching about the same old nonsense. There isn't anything here other than a weak attempt to get ratings.

Don't know if you are serious. Tucker had his communications intercepted because he was trying to get an interview with Putin, which is fine. The issue is that Tuckers identity was unmasked and then his communications leaked, which is very bad.

This shit happens all the time and was at the heart of the Russia collusion bullshit. Obama admin got caught using contractors to perform 702 searches on political opposition, so they drum up a fake FISA to start surveiling again.

A perfect example of how this works, look up James Wolfe and our SSCI. Guy got caught giving the whole unredacted Carter Page FISA application to his news reporter girlfriend. When caught, he threatened to subpoena members of the SSCI, and magically, they wrote wonderful letters for him and he only received a slap on the wrist. The SSCI knew it would be exposed that they purposely leak material to their favorite news orgs.

[SeattleGriz]

In other election news, looks as if Pennsylvania is going to order a forensic audit on three counties to include the one Philadelphia resides in.

[Ibanez]

Fake news. You've got a known liar and crybaby bitching about the same old nonsense. There isn't anything here other than a weak attempt to get ratings.

Don't know if you are serious. Tucker had his communications intercepted because he was trying to get an interview with Putin, which is fine. The issue is that Tuckers identity was unmasked and then his communications leaked, which is very bad.

This shit happens all the time and was at the heart of the Russia collusion bullshit. Obama admin got caught using contractors to perform 702 searches on political opposition, so they drum up a fake FISA to start surveiling again.

A perfect example of how this works, look up James Wolfe and our SSCI. Guy got caught giving the whole unredacted Carter Page FISA application to his news reporter girlfriend. When caught, he threatened to subpoena members of the SSCI, and magically, they wrote wonderful letters for him and he only received a slap on the wrist. The SSCI knew it would be exposed that they purposely leak material to their favorite news orgs.

Provide a link to this please and NOT from some conservatives rag. I'm under no illusion that the NSA doesn't spy or intercept communications between Americans and hostile nations. From what I've seen, it's only Tucker saying so. That's not proof. I'll wait for some independent reporting to come out with verifiable information.