Coronavirus COVID-19

[JohnStOnge]

Ok. Today the CDC posted that as of 4:30 pm Eastern yesterday it had counted 96,002 COVID-19 associated deaths. That exceeds the upper limit of the uncertainty interval for ESTIMATED influenza associated deaths during the very bad 2017-2018 flu season (46,000 through 95,000).

Really, we already knew. But: The idea that this is like the seasonal flu has ZERO credibility at this point. We are no longer having about 2,000 deaths per day as we were for a while. But we are still humming along at about 1,000 deaths per day.

Moreover: I'm going to bet that one reason we are seeing some decline is that there is indeed a seasonal factor. There is an interesting discussion of that possibility at https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covi ... r-weather/.

If there is indeed a seasonal factor as I am betting there is we should expect to see, as many experts have predicted, a resurgence next fall and/or winter. Good chance that there is a LONG way to go with respect to the death count. Then there is going to be a deaths estimate that is going to be significantly larger than the death count.

Next thing I expect to see is the Trump administration pressuring CDC to change its methods so it can bullshit people about how serious this is.

[Gil Dobie]

Ok. Today the CDC posted that as of 4:30 pm Eastern yesterday it had counted 96,002 COVID-19 associated deaths. That exceeds the upper limit of the uncertainty interval for ESTIMATED influenza associated deaths during the very bad 2017-2018 flu season (46,000 through 95,000).

Really, we already knew. But: The idea that this is like the seasonal flu has ZERO credibility at this point. We are no longer having about 2,000 deaths per day as we were for a while. But we are still humming along at about 1,000 deaths per day.

Moreover: I'm going to bet that one reason we are seeing some decline is that there is indeed a seasonal factor. There is an interesting discussion of that possibility at https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covi ... r-weather/.

If there is indeed a seasonal factor as I am betting there is we should expect to see, as many experts have predicted, a resurgence next fall and/or winter. Good chance that there is a LONG way to go with respect to the death count. Then there is going to be a deaths estimate that is going to be significantly larger than the death count.

Next thing I expect to see is the Trump administration pressuring CDC to change its methods so it can bullshit people about how serious this is.

24 states are showing increases, including Minnesota where I'm at. Last few weeks was 20 plus deaths per day, now there are days with over 30 per day. Still waiting for the seasonal effect to kick in. Now that the CDC has released a study that the primary spread is aerosol, vs surface spread. I would expect a seasonal drop as people move outside for activities.

[Ivytalk]

Ok. Today the CDC posted that as of 4:30 pm Eastern yesterday it had counted 96,002 COVID-19 associated deaths. That exceeds the upper limit of the uncertainty interval for ESTIMATED influenza associated deaths during the very bad 2017-2018 flu season (46,000 through 95,000).

Really, we already knew. But: The idea that this is like the seasonal flu has ZERO credibility at this point. We are no longer having about 2,000 deaths per day as we were for a while. But we are still humming along at about 1,000 deaths per day.

Moreover: I'm going to bet that one reason we are seeing some decline is that there is indeed a seasonal factor. There is an interesting discussion of that possibility at https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covi ... r-weather/.

If there is indeed a seasonal factor as I am betting there is we should expect to see, as many experts have predicted, a resurgence next fall and/or winter. Good chance that there is a LONG way to go with respect to the death count. Then there is going to be a deaths estimate that is going to be significantly larger than the death count.

Next thing I expect to see is the Trump administration pressuring CDC to change its methods so it can bullshit people about how serious this is.

I see we have Mr. Bot checking in from a bunker in LA.

[LeadBolt]

Should we be required to wear masks in public in order to protect ourselves and others while legally carrying concealed weapons?


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[Gil Dobie]

Should we be required to wear masks in public in order to protect ourselves and others while legally carrying concealed weapons?


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No Mask No Service signs are replacing No Shirt No Shoes No Service in Minneapolis stores.

[LeadBolt]

Should we be required to wear masks in public in order to protect ourselves and others while legally carrying concealed weapons?


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No Mask No Service signs are replacing No Shirt No Shoes No Service in Minneapolis stores.

No problem with individual establishments doing this, but that is not the point. The point is should the GOVERNMENT require people to wear masks in public? Would they arrest those that refuse to do so and take them to cells which are now open because felons have been released on account of the virus?

Most states have laws against a person wearing a mask carrying a gun. Would this be a backdoor way to suspend those who are legally able to carry a concealed weapons from doing so?

[kalm]

Ok. Today the CDC posted that as of 4:30 pm Eastern yesterday it had counted 96,002 COVID-19 associated deaths. That exceeds the upper limit of the uncertainty interval for ESTIMATED influenza associated deaths during the very bad 2017-2018 flu season (46,000 through 95,000).

Really, we already knew. But: The idea that this is like the seasonal flu has ZERO credibility at this point. We are no longer having about 2,000 deaths per day as we were for a while. But we are still humming along at about 1,000 deaths per day.

Moreover: I'm going to bet that one reason we are seeing some decline is that there is indeed a seasonal factor. There is an interesting discussion of that possibility at https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covi ... r-weather/.

If there is indeed a seasonal factor as I am betting there is we should expect to see, as many experts have predicted, a resurgence next fall and/or winter. Good chance that there is a LONG way to go with respect to the death count. Then there is going to be a deaths estimate that is going to be significantly larger than the death count.

Next thing I expect to see is the Trump administration pressuring CDC to change its methods so it can bullshit people about how serious this is.

That article is hardly a ringing endorsement of the seasonal effect. Many people are confused and think heat somehow will kill the virus itself. The larger positive effect will be less people spending time indoors in groups in confined spaces. EG: The seasonal flu gets knocked back by Christmas break each year.

The seasonality still remains to be seen but with places like Texas, Guatemala, and Brazil still experiencing concerning growth there’s some skepticism. Same goes with UV radiation. The jury is still out on much of this, partly because not every virus is the same and this one is new.

The other interesting effect (if) seasonality has a significant impact is how that skews the efficacy of this summers vaccine trials.

Still learning.

[kalm]

Btw, listened to a British ex-pat teacher and comedian from Vietnam in Kill Tony and he said they are 90% back to normal life. That’s with a high population density and population of 94 million.

CID, can you verify that?

[89Hen]

My religion says I must attend mass every week.

Mohammed’s says he should kill apostates.

Thanks for proving 88's point very succinctly.

[kalm]

Mohammed’s says he should kill apostates.

Thanks for proving 88's point very succinctly.

Thanks for recognizing the absurdism of it all when it comes to rights and freedoms vs a public health emergency. How about the rights of the 26 non-church goers who got infected including the one who died as a result of this outbreak? Sorry...if a few months off from in-person worship is too much, your religion might be a little on the weak side.

35 of the 92 people (38%) who attended services at a rural Arkansas church March 6–11 tested positive for the coronavirus, ultimately killing three, according to a case study released Tuesday by the CDC.

https://www.axios.com/cdc-arkansas-chur ... 9e7fd.html

[CID1990]

Btw, listened to a British ex-pat teacher and comedian from Vietnam in Kill Tony and he said they are 90% back to normal life. That’s with a high population density and population of 94 million.

CID, can you verify that?

Yes Vietnam and also Thailand have done a very good job with flattening their curves

which in the long run is meaningless

But they have done well - which is not difficult in countries where you tell people what to do and they do it

or you disappear their asses forever

Liberty is messier but in the long run more desirable, IMO


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[kalm]

Btw, listened to a British ex-pat teacher and comedian from Vietnam in Kill Tony and he said they are 90% back to normal life. That’s with a high population density and population of 94 million.

CID, can you verify that?

Yes Vietnam and also Thailand have done a very good job with flattening their curves

which in the long run is meaningless

But they have done well - which is not difficult in countries where you tell people what to do and they do it

or you disappear their asses forever

Liberty is messier but in the long run more desirable, IMO


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I don’t disagree. But if given the choice to take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened...or a 6-12 month rollercoaster of restrictions being reimposed no schools, and places like Montgomery Alabama running out of beds would you take it?

That sweet spot is tricky.

[houndawg]

Should we be required to wear masks in public in order to protect ourselves and others while legally carrying concealed weapons?


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No Mask No Service signs are replacing No Shirt No Shoes No Service in Minneapolis stores.

muhfuggers be disrepeckin my freedom Ima bust a cap..

[Gil Dobie]

No Mask No Service signs are replacing No Shirt No Shoes No Service in Minneapolis stores.

No problem with individual establishments doing this, but that is not the point. The point is should the GOVERNMENT require people to wear masks in public? Would they arrest those that refuse to do so and take them to cells which are now open because felons have been released on account of the virus?

Most states have laws against a person wearing a mask carrying a gun. Would this be a backdoor way to suspend those who are legally able to carry a concealed weapons from doing so?

I'm not familiar with laws requiring people to wear masks in public. Minneapolis just announced mask are required for indoor gatherings, business and schools. Similar to seat belt laws I guess, for public safety. Seat belts to prevent death, but they reduce the numbers.

[89Hen]

Thanks for proving 88's point very succinctly.

Thanks for recognizing the absurdism of it all when it comes to rights and freedoms vs a public health emergency. How about the rights of the 26 non-church goers who got infected including the one who died as a result of this outbreak? Sorry...if a few months off from in-person worship is too much, your religion might be a little on the weak side.

35 of the 92 people (38%) who attended services at a rural Arkansas church March 6–11 tested positive for the coronavirus, ultimately killing three, according to a case study released Tuesday by the CDC.

https://www.axios.com/cdc-arkansas-chur ... 9e7fd.html

Looks like we've lost another good man during this crisis. First Gil, now you.

[kalm]

Thanks for recognizing the absurdism of it all when it comes to rights and freedoms vs a public health emergency. How about the rights of the 26 non-church goers who got infected including the one who died as a result of this outbreak? Sorry...if a few months off from in-person worship is too much, your religion might be a little on the weak side.



https://www.axios.com/cdc-arkansas-chur ... 9e7fd.html

Looks like we've lost another good man during this crisis. First Gil, now you.

I’m not sure what you’d disagree with here but your surrender is accepted.

[CID1990]

Yes Vietnam and also Thailand have done a very good job with flattening their curves

which in the long run is meaningless

But they have done well - which is not difficult in countries where you tell people what to do and they do it

or you disappear their asses forever

Liberty is messier but in the long run more desirable, IMO


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I don’t disagree. But if given the choice to take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened...or a 6-12 month rollercoaster of restrictions being reimposed no schools, and places like Montgomery Alabama running out of beds would you take it?

That sweet spot is tricky.

Well, I have a degree in biology with emphasis on microbiology

So I tend to know what sounds like bullshit and what doesn’t when it comes to plagues, foul aires, general scrofulae and various cruds and assorted malodourous effluviae

But here’s the thing -

You have to be creative when it comes to Free People

You can’t say, “wear this mask or else” to Americans. But you can throw them in jail... but in a year it two there is going to be a lot of judicial buttfucking going on... and municipalities and states are going to pay a lot of money to some asshole freesoilers because they lacked the basic leadership skills related to getting people to go along with you / versus telling them what to do and threatening them with whatever Bad Outcomes your jurisdiction can bring to bear

So... passing unconstitutional “rules” is a failure of leadership in the American context... just as whatever Trump is doing at any given time is a failure of leadership (according to CNN and JSO)

So... I would happily wear a mask when a governor or a mayor appeals to me to do so... as my patriotic duty. I’d wear it with pride, while fisting a bottle of Wild Turkey in one hand and a Remington 870 in the other

But when the little cunt says do it or I will send the cops after you?

No thank you, get fucked, go fuck yourself, Come And Take Them, etc etc etc

See how that works?


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[kalm]

I don’t disagree. But if given the choice to take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened...or a 6-12 month rollercoaster of restrictions being reimposed no schools, and places like Montgomery Alabama running out of beds would you take it?

That sweet spot is tricky.

Well, I have a degree in biology with emphasis on microbiology

So I tend to know what sounds like bullshit and what doesn’t when it comes to plagues, foul aires, general scrofulae and various cruds and assorted malodourous effluviae

But here’s the thing -

You have to be creative when it comes to Free People

You can’t say, “wear this mask or else” to Americans. But you can throw them in jail... but in a year it two there is going to be a lot of judicial buttfucking going on... and municipalities and states are going to pay a lot of money to some asshole freesoilers because they lacked the basic leadership skills related to getting people to go along with you / versus telling them what to do and threatening them with whatever Bad Outcomes your jurisdiction can bring to bear

So... passing unconstitutional “rules” is a failure of leadership in the American context... just as whatever Trump is doing at any given time is a failure of leadership (according to CNN and JSO)

So... I would happily wear a mask when a governor or a mayor appeals to me to do so... as my patriotic duty. I’d wear it with pride, while fisting a bottle of Wild Turkey in one hand and a Remington 870 in the other

But when the little cunt says do it or I will send the cops after you?

No thank you, get fucked, go fuck yourself, Come And Take Them, etc etc etc

See how that works?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fully understand. I talked to the state of wa dept health to clarify employee rules. While King County has made them mandatory the state hasn’t and neither has Spokane County. They’re non-binding directives that simply follow CDC guidelines and there is no enforcement. We’re asking our employees to do it and providing masks for those who want to but they are not required. I wear one because it makes sense and I’m not a douche. I don’t scold people also because I’m not a douche.

But I can also tell you I have many friends, neighbors, and a few local business owners who are “done with this liberal hoax” and consider even the guidelines and common sense restrictions on social distancing to be an affront.

They too are cunts.

When the dust settles, there’s a solid chance the cumulative and hopefully temporary loss of freedom, as well as the economic outcomes will be similar from state to state. The death rates and long term health issues may be a different story.

[Chizzang]

Well, I have a degree in biology with emphasis on microbiology

So I tend to know what sounds like bullshit and what doesn’t when it comes to plagues, foul aires, general scrofulae and various cruds and assorted malodourous effluviae

But here’s the thing -

You have to be creative when it comes to Free People

You can’t say, “wear this mask or else” to Americans. But you can throw them in jail... but in a year it two there is going to be a lot of judicial buttfucking going on... and municipalities and states are going to pay a lot of money to some asshole freesoilers because they lacked the basic leadership skills related to getting people to go along with you / versus telling them what to do and threatening them with whatever Bad Outcomes your jurisdiction can bring to bear

So... passing unconstitutional “rules” is a failure of leadership in the American context... just as whatever Trump is doing at any given time is a failure of leadership (according to CNN and JSO)

So... I would happily wear a mask when a governor or a mayor appeals to me to do so... as my patriotic duty. I’d wear it with pride, while fisting a bottle of Wild Turkey in one hand and a Remington 870 in the other

But when the little cunt says do it or I will send the cops after you?

No thank you, get fucked, go fuck yourself, Come And Take Them, etc etc etc

See how that works?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fully understand. I talked to the state of wa dept health to clarify employee rules. While King County has made them mandatory the state hasn’t and neither has Spokane County. They’re non-binding directives that simply follow CDC guidelines and there is no enforcement. We’re asking our employees to do it and providing masks for those who want to but they are not required. I wear one because it makes sense and I’m not a douche. I don’t scold people also because I’m not a douche.

But I can also tell you I have many friends, neighbors, and a few local business owners who are “done with this liberal hoax” and consider even the guidelines and common sense restrictions on social distancing to be an affront.

They too are cunts.

When the dust settles, there’s a solid chance the cumulative and hopefully temporary loss of freedom, as well as the economic outcomes will be similar from state to state. The death rates and long term health issues may be a different story.

King County doesn't seem to be enforcing sh!t
businesses (by all appearances) seem to be doing whatever they want at this stage

The Liberal anti-police twats in the local government (and there are a significant few) have alienated the police force
so King county Police (god bless 'em) do whatever they want now... in other words
they don't enforce sh!t

and you cannot blame them

[kalm]

Fully understand. I talked to the state of wa dept health to clarify employee rules. While King County has made them mandatory the state hasn’t and neither has Spokane County. They’re non-binding directives that simply follow CDC guidelines and there is no enforcement. We’re asking our employees to do it and providing masks for those who want to but they are not required. I wear one because it makes sense and I’m not a douche. I don’t scold people also because I’m not a douche.

But I can also tell you I have many friends, neighbors, and a few local business owners who are “done with this liberal hoax” and consider even the guidelines and common sense restrictions on social distancing to be an affront.

They too are cunts.

When the dust settles, there’s a solid chance the cumulative and hopefully temporary loss of freedom, as well as the economic outcomes will be similar from state to state. The death rates and long term health issues may be a different story.

King County doesn't seem to be enforcing sh!t
businesses (by all appearances) seem to be doing whatever they want at this stage

The Liberal anti-police twats in the local government (and there are a significant few) have alienated the police force
so King county Police (god bless 'em) do whatever they want now... in other words
they don't enforce sh!t

and you cannot blame them

It’s like no alcohol at tailgates. State and college campus open container laws...good luck enforcing. They just ask you to not be a dick about it.

[Gil Dobie]

Minnesota passes Washinton for total positive test on the worldometer site.

[UNI88]

Fully understand. I talked to the state of wa dept health to clarify employee rules. While King County has made them mandatory the state hasn’t and neither has Spokane County. They’re non-binding directives that simply follow CDC guidelines and there is no enforcement. We’re asking our employees to do it and providing masks for those who want to but they are not required. I wear one because it makes sense and I’m not a douche. I don’t scold people also because I’m not a douche.

But I can also tell you I have many friends, neighbors, and a few local business owners who are “done with this liberal hoax” and consider even the guidelines and common sense restrictions on social distancing to be an affront.

They too are cunts.

When the dust settles, there’s a solid chance the cumulative and hopefully temporary loss of freedom, as well as the economic outcomes will be similar from state to state. The death rates and long term health issues may be a different story.

King County doesn't seem to be enforcing sh!t
businesses (by all appearances) seem to be doing whatever they want at this stage

The Liberal anti-police twats in the local government (and there are a significant few) have alienated the police force
so King county Police (god bless 'em) do whatever they want now... in other words
they don't enforce sh!t

and you cannot blame them

What is the punishment if they were to enforce it? Throwing someone in jail for not wearing a mask due to a pandemic seems counterintuitive.

[UNI88]

Yes Vietnam and also Thailand have done a very good job with flattening their curves

which in the long run is meaningless

But they have done well - which is not difficult in countries where you tell people what to do and they do it

or you disappear their asses forever

Liberty is messier but in the long run more desirable, IMO

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t disagree. But if given the choice to take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened...or a 6-12 month rollercoaster of restrictions being reimposed no schools, and places like Montgomery Alabama running out of beds would you take it?

That sweet spot is tricky.

A couple of thoughts/questions from a non-biologist ...

We're already approaching 2 months off. Are you advocating for a total of 3 months off or 3 additional months? If it's 3 additional months how do we know that you (or the government) won't tack on 3 more months (i.e. move the goalposts) later?

We could "take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened" and a 2nd outbreak could still hit us in the fall. Who's to say that we might not be better off being exposed over the summer?

You're correct that there is a lot we don't know about this virus and because of that we don't know which approach is best.

[kalm]

I don’t disagree. But if given the choice to take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened...or a 6-12 month rollercoaster of restrictions being reimposed no schools, and places like Montgomery Alabama running out of beds would you take it?

That sweet spot is tricky.

A couple of thoughts/questions from a non-biologist ...

We're already approaching 2 months off. Are you advocating for a total of 3 months off or 3 additional months? If it's 3 additional months how do we know that you (or the government) won't tack on 3 more months (i.e. move the goalposts) later?

We could "take three months off, all wearing masks in public, contact tracing like a mofo, etc and we’d be back to schools, churches, and all businesses be re-opened" and a 2nd outbreak could still hit us in the fall. Who's to say that we might not be better off being exposed over the summer?

You're correct that there is a lot we don't know about this virus and because of that we don't know which approach is best.

I was comparing what did happen with places like Vietnam and New Zealand and what did and continues to happen in many states here...especially through the lens of economic recovery and removal of restrictions. And it’s not as if there weren’t economic historical studies back in early April suggesting early and sustained social distancing measures might have better economic outcomes in the mid and long term.

What we do going forward is a different deal now. There’s weeks of lag time between relaxed social distancing and/or herd immunity and increased recorded cases we are already seeing in certain states that were early. Slower phased in reopening and voluntary social distancing might still be enough and I think we’re stuck with that. I hope it is.

Here’s the latest numbers I posted a few weeks back, taken directly from county, state, and national dashboards with a new active case ratio and running weekly change metric.

[Chizzang]

King County doesn't seem to be enforcing sh!t
businesses (by all appearances) seem to be doing whatever they want at this stage

The Liberal anti-police twats in the local government (and there are a significant few) have alienated the police force
so King county Police (god bless 'em) do whatever they want now... in other words
they don't enforce sh!t

and you cannot blame them

What is the punishment if they were to enforce it? Throwing someone in jail for not wearing a mask due to a pandemic seems counterintuitive.

nonessential stores are open and have been open